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View Full Version : More Guns = More Murders? A Myth. More Guns = Fewer Murders



Chris
01-17-2013, 08:01 PM
We've heard it all from liberals. They're wrong, dead wrong...


...First, let's just be clear that lots of nations, including "civilized" ones, suffer from both higher overall murder and gun murder rates. Indeed, we are very far from the top.

In 2011, the U.S. murder rate was 4.7 per 100,000 people, the gun murder rate was 3.1.

Much of Eastern Europe; most of Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and Africa; all but one South American nation; and all of Central America and Mexico suffer even higher murder rates than we do. For example, despite very strict gun control, Russia's and Brazil's homicide rates over the last decade averaged about four to five times higher than ours.

Indeed, if you are going to look across all nations and not just a select few, what you find is that the nations with the strictest gun control tend to have higher murder rates.

http://i.snag.gy/8mbik.jpg

If you graph (see above) [New York Times] measure of gun ownership with homicide rates, higher gun ownership means fewer deaths.
A similar pattern holds for all countries as well.

How is this possible?

Many liberals conveniently focus on a few low-murder-rate countries such as England.

Even worse, they ignore that the countries they idolize enjoyed even lower murder rates before they banned guns.

The seemingly most obvious way to stop criminals from getting guns is simply to ban them.

So what happened in the countries that banned either handguns or all guns?

It did not go well: In every single place that we have data for, murder rates went up. Chicago and D.C. provided spectacular failures within the U.S.

But this has been true worldwide. The U.K., Ireland and Jamaica, despite being island nations that can't blame a neighbor for supplying guns, have suffered more murders after gun control was passed.

So what has happened when Americans have been allowed access to guns? Consider a simple fact. Concealed handgun permits and gun sales have been soaring over the last four years, as regular people have worried that Obama would push through gun control. Yet, murders and violent crime have been falling.

That isn't just a recent phenomenon. If you look at the U.S. over the last few decades, even after accounting for other factors, the states that have had the biggest increases in concealed handgun permits and gun ownership have seen the biggest drops in murder and violent crime rates.


@ More Guns = More Murders? A Myth. More Guns = Fewer Murders (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/011613-640869-more-guns-means-less-crime.htm#ixzz2IHw62uOu)

Cigar
01-17-2013, 09:55 PM
Guys ... relax; stop fighting the future ... you guys are dinosaurs and you'll soon be as hard and cold as Diamonds ... if you're lucky enough to get dug-up. Obama has numbers on his side and a bigger stick (it's a Black thang ... shorty).

So ... let's get real ... Military Assault Style Weapons (stop pretending you don't know what we're talking about) will soon be outlawed ... maybe not in Obama's tern, but soon enough.

I have a 12 Gauge, 306, 22 and S&W SD 40 and 9mm ... and no one wants them, not even the Government. Plenty for home defense or Black Helicopter Deference.

So relax .... and have a Drink and Chill.

Change is Coming, no matter if you like it or not :)

Yall have a nice night .. yea hear?


Chris ... get off the internet ... don't you have life ... yet.

Chris
01-17-2013, 09:58 PM
Guys ... relax; stop fighting the future ... you guys are dinosaurs and you'll soon be as hard and cold as Diamonds ... if you're lucky enough to get dug-up. Obama has numbers on his side and a bigger stick (it's a Black thang ... shorty).

So ... let's get real ... Military Assault Style Weapons (stop pretending you don't know what we're talking about) will soon be outlawed ... maybe not in Obama's tern, but soon enough.

I have a 12 Gauge, 306, 22 and S&W SD 40 and 9mm ... and no one wants them, not even the Government. Plenty for home defense or Black Helicopter Deference.

So relax .... and have a Drink and Chill.

Change is Coming, no matter if you like it or not :)

Yall have a nice night .. yea hear?


Chris ... get off the internet ... don't you have life ... yet.


IOW, the only argument you have against Lott is to bullshit past the data and logical conclusion.

RollingWave
01-17-2013, 10:04 PM
Really? the graph notably left the US out of it... well because the US would completely blow out of the picture there since it's gun per person is about twice as much as highest figure in that chart. while it's homicide rate would also be about as high as Estonia .

Meanwhile, there is a fairly similar cluster of dots on both the lower right end (high gun ownership lower homicide rate) and lower left end (little to no gun ownership and low homicide rate.) with only Estonia being the big outlier in the whole chart.

one can fairly reasonably add in different countries too to tip the scale to different direction.

Chris
01-17-2013, 10:31 PM
Really? the graph notably left the US out of it... well because the US would completely blow out of the picture there since it's gun per person is about twice as much as highest figure in that chart. while it's homicide rate would also be about as high as Estonia .

Meanwhile, there is a fairly similar cluster of dots on both the lower right end (high gun ownership lower homicide rate) and lower left end (little to no gun ownership and low homicide rate.) with only Estonia being the big outlier in the whole chart.

one can fairly reasonably add in different countries too to tip the scale to different direction.


You need to read the article to understand the chart.

If you can add more coountries including the US then do it, don't just say you can.

RollingWave
01-18-2013, 01:29 AM
Let me do it over the weekends then I guess.

KC
01-18-2013, 02:34 AM
I think if gun control is to be effective in a given country, a number of other factors need to be present. Rule of law, corruption in government, ethnic diversity, wealth distribution and geography all probably play a role. Gun control might be effective if all of those other factors are also working in a given country's favor.

Even so, liberty and the right to property are much too important to risk in exchange for security.

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 03:13 AM
Chrismess ,
You unwittingly have become a great breakfast time laughter maker over here in our charmingly integrated community . You took a beating the last time you introduced this very subject , with your cartoon graphs then being a huge hit .
Your behaviour exactly matches that of a Moslem Jihadist . You have found something which you have been able to twist into a religious type belief and now your very soul demands that your self created view of the world is never attacked.
On paper you resort to metaphorical rape , pillage and murder, to protect your treasured mind set and when you were briefly a Mod , you even resorted to Beheading --- banning every so called Liberal you possibly could , regardless of reality .
As your ever friendly Team GB mentor and self appointed Guardian , I say unto you ( nice touch) and employing mixed metaphors , Allahu Akbar, little Grasshopper .Seek God in any one of a million ways but not through self harm or trying to be the Judge of others .
Or , Buddha smiles all the time but it's not because he is constipated .

KC
01-18-2013, 03:18 AM
Chrismess ,
You unwittingly have become a great breakfast time laughter maker . You took a beating the last time you introduced this very subject with your cartoon graphs then being a huge hit .
Your behaviour exactly matches that of a Moslem Jihadist . You have found something which you have been able to twist into a religious type belief and now your very soul demands that your self created view of the world is never attacked.
On paper you resort to metaphorical rape , pillage and murder, to protect your treasured mind set and when you were briefly a Mod , you even resorted to Beheading --- banning every so called Liberal you possibly could , regardless of reality .
As your ever friendly Team GB mentor and self appointed Guardian , I say unto you ( nice touch) and employing mixed metaphors , Allahu , Akbar, little Grasshopper .Seek God in any one of a million ways but not through self harm or trying to be the Judge of others .
Or , Buddha smiles all the time but it's not because he is constipated .

Cary, you really should try attacking the content of the argument, rather than the arguer. You aren't convincing anyone with your ad homs.

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 03:26 AM
Cary, you really should try attacking the content of the argument, rather than the arguer. You aren't convincing anyone with your ad homs.


You are absolutely right , but what would you do if you saw some one out in the desert , obviously lost and close to exhaustion ?(No . Robbing is not allowed ).
It's a bit like something the West has totally forgotten --- You only ever ( !) win a war by changing the mind of your enemy . ( MIND )

zelmo1234
01-18-2013, 06:20 AM
Guys ... relax; stop fighting the future ... you guys are dinosaurs and you'll soon be as hard and cold as Diamonds ... if you're lucky enough to get dug-up. Obama has numbers on his side and a bigger stick (it's a Black thang ... shorty).

So ... let's get real ... Military Assault Style Weapons (stop pretending you don't know what we're talking about) will soon be outlawed ... maybe not in Obama's tern, but soon enough.

I have a 12 Gauge, 306, 22 and S&W SD 40 and 9mm ... and no one wants them, not even the Government. Plenty for home defense or Black Helicopter Deference.

So relax .... and have a Drink and Chill.

Change is Coming, no matter if you like it or not :)

Yall have a nice night .. yea hear?


Chris ... get off the internet ... don't you have life ... yet.


So what are you going to do with the millions of guns that are already in the hands of law abiding citizens?

zelmo1234
01-18-2013, 06:25 AM
Chrismess ,
You unwittingly have become a great breakfast time laughter maker over here in our charmingly integrated community . You took a beating the last time you introduced this very subject , with your cartoon graphs then being a huge hit .
Your behaviour exactly matches that of a Moslem Jihadist . You have found something which you have been able to twist into a religious type belief and now your very soul demands that your self created view of the world is never attacked.
On paper you resort to metaphorical rape , pillage and murder, to protect your treasured mind set and when you were briefly a Mod , you even resorted to Beheading --- banning every so called Liberal you possibly could , regardless of reality .
As your ever friendly Team GB mentor and self appointed Guardian , I say unto you ( nice touch) and employing mixed metaphors , Allahu Akbar, little Grasshopper .Seek God in any one of a million ways but not through self harm or trying to be the Judge of others .
Or , Buddha smiles all the time but it's not because he is constipated .

Do you have any facts that would dispute his post?

I leve in reality land, so I am willing to conside your point of view, but need fact and figures to back it up. Otherwise it appears that your BS will ont be able to change the facts.

zelmo1234
01-18-2013, 06:28 AM
You are absolutely right , but what would you do if you saw some one out in the desert , obviously lost and close to exhaustion ?(No . Robbing is not allowed ).
It's a bit like something the West has totally forgotten --- You only ever ( !) win a war by changing the mind of your enemy . ( MIND )

This might be your biggest crock of bull yet.

Can you name one war that was won by changing of people mind? Just One?

Chris
01-18-2013, 07:24 AM
Let me do it over the weekends then I guess.

Sounds good, thanks!

I, too, thought it odd he left the US out. Let's see if we can place it.

Chris
01-18-2013, 07:25 AM
Chrismess ,
You unwittingly have become a great breakfast time laughter maker over here in our charmingly integrated community . You took a beating the last time you introduced this very subject , with your cartoon graphs then being a huge hit .
Your behaviour exactly matches that of a Moslem Jihadist . You have found something which you have been able to twist into a religious type belief and now your very soul demands that your self created view of the world is never attacked.
On paper you resort to metaphorical rape , pillage and murder, to protect your treasured mind set and when you were briefly a Mod , you even resorted to Beheading --- banning every so called Liberal you possibly could , regardless of reality .
As your ever friendly Team GB mentor and self appointed Guardian , I say unto you ( nice touch) and employing mixed metaphors , Allahu Akbar, little Grasshopper .Seek God in any one of a million ways but not through self harm or trying to be the Judge of others .
Or , Buddha smiles all the time but it's not because he is constipated .

Ad hom, off topic, harassment, posting in bad faith, dismissed.

Chris
01-18-2013, 07:27 AM
Cary, you really should try attacking the content of the argument, rather than the arguer. You aren't convincing anyone with your ad homs.


You are absolutely right , but what would you do if you saw some one out in the desert , obviously lost and close to exhaustion ?(No . Robbing is not allowed ).
It's a bit like something the West has totally forgotten --- You only ever ( !) win a war by changing the mind of your enemy . ( MIND )

You agree and then disagree. Violates the logical law of noncontradiction. Dismissed.

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 07:35 AM
Ad hom, off topic, harassment, posting in bad faith, dismissed.


But , nevertheless , 100% accurate . And I am pleased that you are beginning to see parts of it yourself .

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 07:37 AM
You agree and then disagree. Violates the logical law of noncontradiction. Dismissed.


I expect Judas said roughly the same to his pals .
And even though he actually was one of the three on the cross , as far as you are concerned, keep away from strong rope .

hanger4
01-18-2013, 07:44 AM
I expect Judas said roughly the same to his pals .
And even though he actually was one of the three on the cross , as far as you are concerned, keep away from strong rope .

:rofl::rofl: You are one incredibility stupid poster :rofl::rofl:

Chris
01-18-2013, 07:46 AM
OK, so one question, raised by RollingWave, is why the US was left out of the chart in the OP. Let's add the US in and see...

http://i.snag.gy/im4yz.jpg

Firearms per 100 approx 88: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country

Homicides per 100,000 approx 4.8: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

Note that that data was given in the OP as well.

And those sources provide data on other countries to add if you like.

I'd say it was simply because the US is an outlier statistically.

But it still fits the claim Lott makes: "...if you are going to look across all nations and not just a select few, what you find is that the nations with the strictest gun control tend to have higher murder rates." The converse holds as well. Moreover: "So what happened in the countries that banned either handguns or all guns? It did not go well: In every single place that we have data for, murder rates went up...." And "So what has happened when Americans have been allowed access to guns? Consider a simple fact. Concealed handgun permits and gun sales have been soaring over the last four years, as regular people have worried that Obama would push through gun control. Yet, murders and violent crime have been falling." This has been true for decades.

Chris
01-18-2013, 07:49 AM
But , nevertheless , 100% accurate . And I am pleased that you are beginning to see parts of it yourself .

Indeed, "Ad hom, off topic, harassment, posting in bad faith" is 100% true for you. http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/567/1sm074hole.gif

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 08:26 AM
Indeed, "Ad hom, off topic, harassment, posting in bad faith" is 100% true for you. http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/567/1sm074hole.gif


It's harassment now ?
Isn't that what you practised toward Liberals during your short stay as a Moderator? When you wanted them all out . A Troll colony , no less .
My god you do spew nonsense .

Chris
01-18-2013, 08:33 AM
It's harassment now ?
Isn't that what you practised toward Liberals during your short stay as a Moderator? When you wanted them all out . A Troll colony , no less .
My god you do spew nonsense .

Please stop making things up and please stop disrupting discussions.

Mainecoons
01-18-2013, 08:38 AM
You left because your half-baked thinking and posting got thoroughly punked. Your last one is the work of a true nincompoop. Kindly remain gone.

:grin:

Uncle Slam
01-18-2013, 09:05 AM
You left because your half-baked thinking and posting got thoroughly punked. Your last one is the work of a true nincompoop. Kindly remain gone.

:grin:

You intellectual lightweights? Shit. Kindly get fucked koolaide drinker and turn Hannity back on.

Private Pickle
01-18-2013, 09:07 AM
You intellectual lightweights? Shit. Kindly get fucked koolaide drinker and turn Hannity back on.

You've got a lot of anger. Do you need a hug?

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 09:32 AM
Grant - I'm popping in to comment here because although I left because of these weirdos who NEED to have (even though they're not) liberals (like me) to validate their existance. I didn't know this cocksucking pussy was a moderator, but that figures. I'm surprised anyone even shows up here to argue with these dimwits. How and why do you do it? They're everything that's wrong with this country, placing their beloved "party" over the good of the whole. But they're too goddamned stupid to even realize it.


Don't run out , Slammer .
They are not a bright lot and you just ignore their name calling and scratch another notch on the score board .

Chris
01-18-2013, 09:34 AM
Don't run out , Slammer .
They are not a bright lot and you just ignore their name calling and scratch another notch on the score board .

Slam's the one name calling, cary, like you do.

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 09:36 AM
You've got a lot of anger. Do you need a hug?


Pickle . Are you a girl?
Come over here and we can hug if you fancy . I kept staring at your display pic and i saw big Tits . ( no , not a mirror Mister P ) .

Private Pickle
01-18-2013, 09:37 AM
Pickle . Are you a girl?
Come over here and we can hug if you fancy . I kept staring at your display pic and i saw big Tits . ( no , not a mirror Mister P ) .

Interesting. You must be a Catholic Priest...

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 09:43 AM
Actually, he peaked and is going down...

http://i.snag.gy/Wkkhj.jpg






http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/clear.gifReply (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=217744&noquote=1) http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/clear.gifReply With Quote (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=217744) http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/images/buttons/multiquote_40b.png (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=217744)Thanks (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/post_thanks.php?do=post_thanks_add&p=217744&securitytoken=1358522954-72d1c7f13fe347742ab332131c5c02898e7881c1) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/reputation.php?do=addreputation&p=217744) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/report.php?p=217744)

Here's a cartoon Graph of approval for President Obama
Note the Chris comment .
THE TRUTH
Black line has been moving up slowly across the year ( APPROVAL )
Red line has recently turned down sharply ( DISAPPROVAL)

Would you trust a cartoon graph that is probably an unwanted Chrismess present

Chris
01-18-2013, 09:49 AM
Wrong thread, cary. Stop your incessant trolling, will you.

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 09:54 AM
Wrong thread, cary. Stop your incessant trolling, will you.


Do pieces of rubbish -- your cartoon graph -- not put your approach to presenting evidence as questionable -- even disreputable ?

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 10:03 AM
Let's look at Intentional Murders by country as a measure of Homicide , and , as we are advised by experts , data with a high correlation with Violence .


2.4
712+ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_Civil_War)
Asia
Southern Asia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/36/Flag_of_Albania.svg/22px-Flag_of_Albania.svg.png Albania (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albania)
4.0
127
Europe
Southern Europe


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/Flag_of_Algeria.svg/22px-Flag_of_Algeria.svg.png Algeria (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria)
1.5
516
Africa
Northern Africa


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/19/Flag_of_Andorra.svg/22px-Flag_of_Andorra.svg.png Andorra (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andorra)
1.3
1
Europe
Southern Europe


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9d/Flag_of_Angola.svg/22px-Flag_of_Angola.svg.png Angola (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angola)
19.0
3,426
Africa
Middle Africa


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Flag_of_Anguilla.svg/22px-Flag_of_Anguilla.svg.png Anguilla (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anguilla)
6.8
1
Americas
Caribbean


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Flag_of_Antigua_and_Barbuda.svg/22px-Flag_of_Antigua_and_Barbuda.svg.png Antigua and Barbuda (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigua_and_Barbuda)
6.8
6
Americas
Caribbean


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Flag_of_Argentina.svg/22px-Flag_of_Argentina.svg.png Argentina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina)
3.4
1,360
Americas
South America


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/Flag_of_Armenia.svg/22px-Flag_of_Armenia.svg.png Armenia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia)
1.4
44
Asia
Western Asia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/b9/Flag_of_Australia.svg/22px-Flag_of_Australia.svg.png Australia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia)
1.0
229
Oceania
Australasia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cb/Flag_of_the_United_Arab_Emirates.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_Arab_Emirates.svg.png United Arab Emirates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arab_Emirates)
0.8
39
Asia
Western Asia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/ae/Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png United Kingdom (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom)
1.2
722
Europe
Northern Europe


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png United States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States)
4.8
14,748
Americas
Northern America


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/Flag_of_Uruguay.svg/22px-Flag_of_Uruguay.svg.png Uruguay (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uruguay)
5.9
199
Americas
South America


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Flag_of_Uzbekistan.svg/22px-Flag_of_Uzbekistan.svg.png Uzbekistan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uzbekistan)
3.1
831
Asia
Central Asia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/Flag_of_Vanuatu.svg/22px-Flag_of_Vanuatu.svg.png Vanuatu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanuatu)
0.9
2
Oceania
Melanesia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/Flag_of_Venezuela.svg/22px-Flag_of_Venezuela.svg.png Venezuela (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela)
45.1
13,080
Americas
South America


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/21/Flag_of_Vietnam.svg/22px-Flag_of_Vietnam.svg.png Vietnam (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam)
1.6
1,346
Asia
South-Eastern Asia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Flag_of_Yemen.svg/22px-Flag_of_Yemen.svg.png Yemen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen)
4.2
990+ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_insurgency_in_Yemen)
Asia
Western Asia


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/Flag_of_Zambia.svg/22px-Flag_of_Zambia.svg.png Zambia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zambia)
38.0
4,710
Africa
Eastern Africa


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6a/Flag_of_Zimbabwe.svg/22px-Flag_of_Zimbabwe.svg.png Zimbabwe (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwe)
14.3
1,775
Africa
Eastern Africa


"rate" in column 2 is defined as deaths per 100,000 population.



What's that at the bottom . Does it show the US kill more frequently than their kindly cousins by 400% ?
What a surprise?

Larger part of the full chart omitted only because it meant splitting between several posts

Chris
01-18-2013, 10:10 AM
As for your observation, which you base on the link I provided earlier, the US has a rate of 4.8 per 100,000 people and at the bottom is Zimbabwe with a much higher rate of 14.3.

That was one of Lott's points in the OP, thank you.


But as Lott, in the OP, says, you can't just cherry pick instances of data, you need to look at the big picture. Thus

http://i.snag.gy/8mbik.jpg

Which shows

(a) "So what happened in the countries that banned either handguns or all guns? It did not go well: In every single place that we have data for, murder rates went up. Chicago and D.C. provided spectacular failures within the U.S."

and conversely

(b) "So what has happened when Americans have been allowed access to guns? Consider a simple fact. Concealed handgun permits and gun sales have been soaring over the last four years, as regular people have worried that Obama would push through gun control. Yet, murders and violent crime have been falling. That isn't just a recent phenomenon. If you look at the U.S. over the last few decades, even after accounting for other factors, the states that have had the biggest increases in concealed handgun permits and gun ownership have seen the biggest drops in murder and violent crime rates."

Carygrant
01-18-2013, 12:43 PM
Of course you don't explain why you are not guilty as charged for mis-posting on the " Job Approval" data .
Guilty.
As for the twaddle graph you prefer to divert people to :-
We know US homicides are four times more than the UK ( 400% ).
We know US Gun ownership has fallen significantly in terms of number of people owning in recent years -- fewer owning but irrationally increasing the number owned .
CONCLUSION The subject is being bullied and Trolled by a minority of people and possibly a small group of Americans seem prone to homicide on a rising numbers basis .
This could signal the emergence of a very nasty American sub species -- referred to by me as the Republican Extremists , and elsewhere as the Hilly Billy tribe.

zelmo1234
01-18-2013, 12:58 PM
You intellectual lightweights? Shit. Kindly get fucked koolaide drinker and turn Hannity back on.

First Uncle glad to see you back.

Second I said if I ever thought you were a liberal, I would make that clear. So before I write the rest of this post let me go on record to say that I beleive beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are a flaming liberal. Not that it is a bd thing it is just your politics. I am conservative, you are liberal.

But here is more proof of what I posted on the mind set of the liberals. Name calling and attacks, and then they will resprt to violence and threats.

Why do you think that the Communits and Socialist leaders of our past had to kill a large percentage of the population, they can not live with opposition, because it sheds the liget of the truth

KC
01-18-2013, 01:07 PM
Everyone stop the personal attacks.

Uncle Slam
01-18-2013, 01:09 PM
First Uncle glad to see you back.

Second I said if I ever thought you were a liberal, I would make that clear. So before I write the rest of this post let me go on record to say that I beleive beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are a flaming liberal. Not that it is a bd thing it is just your politics. I am conservative, you are liberal.

But here is more proof of what I posted on the mind set of the liberals. Name calling and attacks, and then they will resprt to violence and threats.

Why do you think that the Communits and Socialist leaders of our past had to kill a large percentage of the population, they can not live with opposition, because it sheds the liget of the truth

I read these forums and only visited back to let you all know I'm NOT a liberal. What fuck sense would it make for me to lie? I do believe at this point in time in America anyone who carries a banner of liberal, conservative, Dem or GOP, whatever, is a goddamned fool who cares more about what Jesse Ventura calls a "gang affiliation" way more so than the country. Which is why these forums no longer appeal to me. It's just a silly-assed virtual "gang war," and none of you ignorant motherfuckers could give one rat's ass about the country. Not really. You're being used.

Infraction issued - excessive vulgarity and personal attacks

Uncle Slam
01-18-2013, 01:09 PM
Everyone stop the personal attacks.

That's all your forums are - good bye forever............

KC
01-18-2013, 01:12 PM
That's all your forums are - good bye forever............

Don't let the door hit you on your way out.

nic34
01-18-2013, 01:14 PM
First Uncle glad to see you back.

Second I said if I ever thought you were a liberal, I would make that clear. So before I write the rest of this post let me go on record to say that I beleive beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are a flaming liberal. Not that it is a bd thing it is just your politics. I am conservative, you are liberal.

But here is more proof of what I posted on the mind set of the liberals. Name calling and attacks, and then they will resprt to violence and threats.

Why do you think that the Communits and Socialist leaders of our past had to kill a large percentage of the population, they can not live with opposition, because it sheds the liget of the truth

Wow, dude, you got issues.....

Captain Obvious
01-18-2013, 08:49 PM
Thread has been reopened.

Uncle Slam has been banned from this thread, please do not respond to his/her posts.

Chris
01-18-2013, 09:11 PM
OK, let's get back to the facts and logic presented here. So far the only real challenge to the OP has been rollingwave's two here: http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/10238-More-Guns-More-Murders-A-Myth-More-Guns-Fewer-Murders?p=217897&viewfull=1#post217897.

The two questions had to do with why the OP chart did not include the US and couldn't other countries be added. Those were addressed here: http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/10238-More-Guns-More-Murders-A-Myth-More-Guns-Fewer-Murders?p=217975&viewfull=1#post217975, supplying a chart with the US as well as other nation's firearms per 100 and homicides per 100,000.

RollingWave
01-19-2013, 05:48 AM
You need to read the article to understand the chart.

If you can add more coountries including the US then do it, don't just say you can.

Ok, since this is an interesting (and not particularly hard) exercise.

Tool : excel

Methodology : recreate John R. Lott Jr's chart as much as possible, then add in a second chart adding only the USA.

Source of data : gunpolicy.org (http://www.gunpolicy.org/) for guns per 100, UNODC data (http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/Homicide_statistics2012.xls) for homicide per 100k.

My recreation of Lott's data, as you can see reasonably similar

http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff59/RollingWave/Lottreplica_zps0285ba19.jpg


Now the exactly same data set, adding in the USA
http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff59/RollingWave/ChartUSA_zpse63da042.jpg


Unsurprising.


This of course, does NOT prove more guns = more violence, it just prove that Lott is an academic hack at best. this methodology have so many holes in it even someone who completely failed in College Statistic course should be able to see through.

The link to my excel file, just in case you wonder if I fudge the number or something.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/?drb4rh2qrqec5vd

RollingWave
01-19-2013, 06:26 AM
OK, so one question, raised by @RollingWave (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=129), is why the US was left out of the chart in the OP. Let's add the US in and see...

http://i.snag.gy/im4yz.jpg

Firearms per 100 approx 88: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country

Homicides per 100,000 approx 4.8: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

Note that that data was given in the OP as well.

And those sources provide data on other countries to add if you like.

I'd say it was simply because the US is an outlier statistically.

But it still fits the claim Lott makes: "...if you are going to look across all nations and not just a select few, what you find is that the nations with the strictest gun control tend to have higher murder rates." The converse holds as well. Moreover: "So what happened in the countries that banned either handguns or all guns? It did not go well: In every single place that we have data for, murder rates went up...." And "So what has happened when Americans have been allowed access to guns? Consider a simple fact. Concealed handgun permits and gun sales have been soaring over the last four years, as regular people have worried that Obama would push through gun control. Yet, murders and violent crime have been falling." This has been true for decades.

If we're using the outlier argument, then why should the outlier country in question take anything out of the above chart? there are also several outlier country in there, most notably Estonia.

One should also note that a lot of the country in there have very low population, which means that a couple extra or less murder each year will already shift their number dramatically. for example, the Norway massacre incident would already DOUBLE Norway's homicide rate from that chart.

Perhaps the worst part of this methodology is the simple fact that it doesn't weigh population and population density.

I'm not really against guns, but the argument in this article is simply flawed, not least of which is the obvious cherry pick of countries, I can easily also cherry pick a list of wealthy states with the exact opposite result.

Chris
01-19-2013, 09:34 AM
RollingWave, appreciate your well-reasoned argument and acknowledge adding the US in does weaken it.

Or do we have a case where the exception proves the rule. The second half of Lott's argument shows how the US, even as an outlier, fits in with trends where gun bans correlate with increased violence and, conversely, increased gun ownership correlates with decreased violence.


"I can easily also cherry pick a list of wealthy states with the exact opposite result."

Second time you said you'd add more countries.

Chris
01-19-2013, 09:44 AM
I think too we shouldn't dismiss Lott based on a single article. His book on the topic is much more extensive and a conference on it garnered more support than not, those disagreeing arguing no effect for carry conceal. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/More_Guns,_Less_Crime.

I think too you need to consider his article was a counter argument to a New York Times article that somehow came up with the opposite conclusion, and his purpose was to ask what can we learn from other countries:


Much is made of comparing some rather arbitrarily defined "civilized" nations, but what can Americans learn from these nations? If the non-US developed nations show anything, even with the extremely questionable data that Charles Blow at the New York Times apparently trusts regarding gun ownership rates, it shows that higher gun ownership means lower homicide or no change in gun homicide rates. He just hadn’t even bothered to graph out the numbers.

...Of course, I have other problems with the New York Times discussion. For example, the rates of gun ownership for Switzerland and Israel are ridiculously low. But my point above was that even if those numbers are taken as given, you still find the opposite relationship from what the New York Times was claiming.

The graph showing all non-US countries is shown here.

http://i.snag.gy/d55K9.jpg

@ So what can the US learn from other developed countries regarding guns and crime (http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2013/01/so-what-can-us-learn-from-other.html)

So now we have his reason for excluding the US and a chart of all non-US-developed countries.

I probably shouldn't have fallen for the media headline.

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 05:39 PM
1275

hanger4
01-19-2013, 06:00 PM
1275

Just because a cartoon says so, doesn't make it so.

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 07:21 PM
Just because a cartoon says so, doesn't make it so.

Although I'm just an aging famous well armed with an AK-15 and handgun vigilante, It's a pleasure to meet an expert on the Patriot Act. What's not true about it?

Mainecoons
01-19-2013, 07:21 PM
Except that this cartoon is accurate. The Patriot Act is the open door for the takeover of America by big government fascists.

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 07:22 PM
Except that this cartoon is accurate. The Patriot Act is the open door for the takeover of America by big government fascists.

Again Maincoons I believe I'm going to like your posts as this is the second I've seen in the last couple minutes that is great. You sure you didn't frequent the Carousel Club?

Jack

Mainecoons
01-19-2013, 07:36 PM
I'm a born again Libertarian Jack.

Welcome to the group. I think I'm going to enjoy you as well. You will have fun with Cigar.

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 07:37 PM
I'm a born again Libertarian Jack.

Welcome to the group. I think I'm going to enjoy you as well. You will have fun with Cigar.

What's a Cigar?

Chris
01-19-2013, 07:37 PM
1275

Posted on line. Where was yours, you were dead.

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 07:38 PM
Where was yours, you were dead.

You believe everything the government tells you?

Jack

GrassrootsConservative
01-19-2013, 07:42 PM
What's a Cigar?

A troll.

Chris
01-19-2013, 07:49 PM
You believe everything the government tells you?

Jack

I don't believe anything anyone tells me without evidence or a good argument.

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 07:51 PM
A troll.

Hum, I thought those were the things I smoked with David Ferrie and the boys at the club?

GrassrootsConservative
01-19-2013, 07:59 PM
Hum, I thought those were the things I smoked with David Ferrie and the boys at the club?

http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/10186-Weekly-World-News-Obama-adds-himself-to-Mount-Rushmore

Typical Cigar thread.

Carygrant
01-19-2013, 08:16 PM
http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/10186-Weekly-World-News-Obama-adds-himself-to-Mount-Rushmore

Typical Cigar thread.


It's great to have happy and positive news wherever possible .It cheers up people , particularly the Extremists here who have had a terrible last few months and the promise of many more years to come . That's why I was so pleased to see that you have picked up the pieces and moved on from Mutt the Misfit , to swimming with Sea Horses .

JackRuby
01-19-2013, 08:45 PM
http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/10186-Weekly-World-News-Obama-adds-himself-to-Mount-Rushmore

Typical Cigar thread.

Looks like a Democrat to me. Of course, I once avenged the assassination of a Democratic president, but that was a different era. I've matured and mellowed a bit from then, even though I still think Clay Bertrand had something to do with the death of JFK. And that "Hands Off Cuba" thing went south. Can't have everything you know.

Jack

RollingWave
01-20-2013, 09:32 AM
RollingWave, appreciate your well-reasoned argument and acknowledge adding the US in does weaken it.

Or do we have a case where the exception proves the rule. The second half of Lott's argument shows how the US, even as an outlier, fits in with trends where gun bans correlate with increased violence and, conversely, increased gun ownership correlates with decreased violence.


"I can easily also cherry pick a list of wealthy states with the exact opposite result."

Second time you said you'd add more countries.

and then this is also the second time I prove the point with an actual chart.

http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff59/RollingWave/SelectedGuns_zpsd45d72b2.jpg


countries used.



Japan


Slovakia


UK


Poland


Neterhland


Spain


Czech


Slovania


Australia


Greece


Belgium


New Zeland


France


Canada


Sweden


Germany


Norway



Iceland



Switzerland



Finland






Singapore



Brunei


Ireland


Hungary


Portgual


Bulgaria




Of course, this is also disingenuous, just that I'm not running around claiming to be an academic, let alone a high profile one.

RollingWave
01-20-2013, 09:44 AM
I think too we shouldn't dismiss Lott based on a single article. His book on the topic is much more extensive and a conference on it garnered more support than not, those disagreeing arguing no effect for carry conceal. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/More_Guns,_Less_Crime.

I think too you need to consider his article was a counter argument to a New York Times article that somehow came up with the opposite conclusion, and his purpose was to ask what can we learn from other countries:



@ So what can the US learn from other developed countries regarding guns and crime (http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2013/01/so-what-can-us-learn-from-other.html)

So now we have his reason for excluding the US and a chart of all non-US-developed countries.

I probably shouldn't have fallen for the media headline.

The problem with this is that there are only a small amount of country in the world actually with a decent amount of guns, and non of them is really close to the USA anyway, but let's just look at the 19 or so country above 30%, they essentially fall into 2 catagory.

1. really wealthy countries (western / North European and Saudi Arabia)

2. war torn or recently war torn country that isn't too poor ( Iraq , Yemen, Serbia and lesser extend Uruguay and Cyprus )

We can make two sort of conclusion here, either that

A. guns are generally only pursued by really wealthy people with a lot of extra money, or by not too poor folks with obvious security needs.

or

B. guns makes you wealthier . (seeing that if we change this chart to GDP per capita vs guns we'll also get a similar correlation, probably even stronger)

I'm fairly sure that the later would have a hard time passing the logic test.

And whatever correlation we can draw here, if more guns = more safety, then the US most be failing horribly in a lot of other areas given that they out gun the most gun owning country by nearly 100%, and yet have anywhere between 100-200% more murder per capita. (if of course, you believe that there are actually less murder per capita in Yemen than the US, and less than half as much in Iraq, and even if you don't, comparing one of the wealthiest country in the world to warzones is a pretty big problem already.)

Again, I'm not really anti gun, but the whole "responsible" gun ownership part seem to be very badly missing from the pro-gun message, not to mention that the generally more pro-gun party have denied an ATF director for 6 years and generally tried to remove any gun restriction at any level. You want to be Switzerland? then regulate like Switzerland, which includes removing half the guns from Circulation and also having a military draft.

Chris
01-20-2013, 10:01 AM
and then this is also the second time I prove the point with an actual chart.

http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff59/RollingWave/SelectedGuns_zpsd45d72b2.jpg


countries used.



Japan


Slovakia


UK


Poland


Neterhland


Spain


Czech


Slovania


Australia


Greece


Belgium


New Zeland


France


Canada


Sweden


Germany


Norway



Iceland



Switzerland



Finland






Singapore



Brunei


Ireland


Hungary


Portgual


Bulgaria




Of course, this is also disingenuous, just that I'm not running around claiming to be an academic, let alone a high profile one.

What criteria did you use? Without that it's meaningless.

And if you're being disingenuous, why post it?

Chris
01-20-2013, 10:07 AM
The problem with this is that there are only a small amount of country in the world actually with a decent amount of guns, and non of them is really close to the USA anyway, but let's just look at the 19 or so country above 30%, they essentially fall into 2 catagory.

1. really wealthy countries (western / North European and Saudi Arabia)

2. war torn or recently war torn country that isn't too poor ( Iraq , Yemen, Serbia and lesser extend Uruguay and Cyprus )

We can make two sort of conclusion here, either that

A. guns are generally only pursued by really wealthy people with a lot of extra money, or by not too poor folks with obvious security needs.

or

B. guns makes you wealthier . (seeing that if we change this chart to GDP per capita vs guns we'll also get a similar correlation, probably even stronger)

I'm fairly sure that the later would have a hard time passing the logic test.

And whatever correlation we can draw here, if more guns = more safety, then the US most be failing horribly in a lot of other areas given that they out gun the most gun owning country by nearly 100%, and yet have anywhere between 100-200% more murder per capita. (if of course, you believe that there are actually less murder per capita in Yemen than the US, and less than half as much in Iraq, and even if you don't, comparing one of the wealthiest country in the world to warzones is a pretty big problem already.)

Again, I'm not really anti gun, but the whole "responsible" gun ownership part seem to be very badly missing from the pro-gun message, not to mention that the generally more pro-gun party have denied an ATF director for 6 years and generally tried to remove any gun restriction at any level. You want to be Switzerland? then regulate like Switzerland, which includes removing half the guns from Circulation and also having a military draft.

I don't think you can draw any conclusion since your conclusion is contained in your premises--you selected countries to fit your conclusion--and you've come up with a tautology.



And whatever correlation we can draw here, if more guns = more safety, then the US most be failing horribly in a lot of other areas given that they out gun the most gun owning country by nearly 100%, and yet have anywhere between 100-200% more murder per capita.

You've done nothing to show correleation.

What Lott does to show correlation is to show how when countries restrict gun ownership crime tends to rise and when gun ownership goes up, crime tends to fall, and this is so not just in the US but many other nations.



Again, I'm not really anti gun, but the whole "responsible" gun ownership part seem to be very badly missing from the pro-gun message

That may be so but not in Lott's message, he's just showing data and trends within that data.

countryboy
01-20-2013, 10:14 AM
I read these forums and only visited back to let you all know I'm NOT a liberal. What fuck sense would it make for me to lie? I do believe at this point in time in America anyone who carries a banner of liberal, conservative, Dem or GOP, whatever, is a goddamned fool who cares more about what Jesse Ventura calls a "gang affiliation" way more so than the country. Which is why these forums no longer appeal to me. It's just a silly-assed virtual "gang war," and none of you ignorant motherfuckers could give one rat's ass about the country. Not really. You're being used.

Infraction issued - excessive vulgarity and personal attacks

It doesn't matter whether or not you assign a label to yourself.....if it walks like a duck. :wink:

countryboy
01-20-2013, 10:16 AM
That's all your forums are - good bye forever............

Yeah yeah.....we've heard that one before. But just in case.....http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-basic/bye.gif

countryboy
01-20-2013, 10:20 AM
Thread has been reopened.

Uncle Slam has been banned from this thread, please do not respond to his/her posts.

oops, sorry missed this before posting. :embarrassed:

nic34
01-21-2013, 09:40 AM
Again, I'm not really anti gun, but the whole "responsible" gun ownership part seem to be very badly missing from the pro-gun message, not to mention that the generally more pro-gun party have denied an ATF director for 6 years and generally tried to remove any gun restriction at any level. You want to be Switzerland? then regulate like Switzerland, which includes removing half the guns from Circulation and also having a military draft.

Couldn't have said it better.

JackRuby
01-21-2013, 10:48 AM
While the feds hid me out in Trinidad for a couple years, Clinton requested audience with me. The great gun taking president actually had a gift for me - he returned to me my pistol I used to shoot Oswald with! Since then W Bush and Obama have wanted to see the pistol. Yea, I'm still popular among presidents you could say.

Jack

1287

Peter1469
01-21-2013, 11:31 AM
What a nice guy.

RollingWave
01-29-2013, 11:10 AM
I don't think you can draw any conclusion since your conclusion is contained in your premises--you selected countries to fit your conclusion--and you've come up with a tautology.

You've done nothing to show correleation.

What Lott does to show correlation is to show how when countries restrict gun ownership crime tends to rise and when gun ownership goes up, crime tends to fall, and this is so not just in the US but many other nations.

That may be so but not in Lott's message, he's just showing data and trends within that data.

Let me show you what my main point is then, my main point is that.

A. typically only wealthy country have higher gun ratio for obvious reason (aka being able to afford it.)

B. Wealthy country by default already have less homicide rate because it has better rule of law.

C. Because of A + B, we automatically end up with High gun ownership country having less homicide. (and since you pointed out that the USA is the "exception" to this rule, what does that say?)

D. I think that I'll find a higher correlation ration between GDP and homicide then gun vs homicide. because I think that gun is a questionable correlation with homicide at best. and my point of argument like Lott is that it intentionally overlook that GDP correlates higher because it obviously doesn't fit his message.

Let me just show a very simple premise for this argument, using Lott's selection of country. I added one more factor in there, GDP per capita (based on 2011 figure from the IMF), and then we see how gun vs GDP and GDP vs homicide correlate?

http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff59/RollingWave/GDPvsGunsvsHomicide_zps129e20c4.jpg





Which one of these have the least concentrated dots? which one have the least leaning line? note that this is all relatively well off country with not particularly terrible homicide rate.

Chris
01-29-2013, 11:15 AM
Let me show you what my main point is then, my main point is that.

A. typically only wealthy country have higher gun ratio for obvious reason (aka being able to afford it.)

B. Wealthy country by default already have less homicide rate because it has better rule of law.

C. Because of A + B, we automatically end up with High gun ownership country having less homicide. (and since you pointed out that the USA is the "exception" to this rule, what does that say?)

D. I think that I'll find a higher correlation ration between GDP and homicide then gun vs homicide. because I think that gun is a questionable correlation with homicide at best. and my point of argument like Lott is that it intentionally overlook that GDP correlates higher because it obviously doesn't fit his message.

Let me just show a very simple premise for this argument, using Lott's selection of country. I added one more factor in there, GDP per capita (based on 2011 figure from the IMF), and then we see how gun vs GDP and GDP vs homicide correlate?

http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff59/RollingWave/GDPvsGunsvsHomicide_zps129e20c4.jpg





Which one of these have the least concentrated dots? which one have the least leaning line? note that this is all relatively well off country with not particularly terrible homicide rate.

Lots of potential correlation there, not enough to claim causation as you seem to be doing.

Remember, Lott's point wasn't to claim direct causation, but to shoot down claims of it by the left.

RollingWave
01-29-2013, 11:44 AM
It does not prove causation yes, but do you argue that this is not true?

1. Rule of Law do cause wealth in society.
2. Rule of Law do case decrease in homicide .

I would hazard a guess no, then since we can generally assume that more order society correlate strongly with GDP per capita by a real causation effect, then the same selection of country seeing a lesser correlation between guns and homicide, yet showing a strong correlation between wealth and guns...... that is a more realistic view on the so called liberal claim of guns potential correlation with homicide.

Does that prove causation either? no, but it is worth looking into, and again one must look into the reality that even if you take 1 out of 2 guns away in the USA, it will still remain the highest gun per capita country in the world or at least very close to it. so wouldn't the total resistence to any regulation not make much sense?

Lotts graph and how it interact if the USA is thrown in also could suggest that while getting gun ownership ratio up to 20-40% isn't bad or even good for overall safety, the effect start to reverse past that point. but since we have no other data point past that point. we'll never really have anything to compare it to.

Chris
01-29-2013, 12:07 PM
It does not prove causation yes, but do you argue that this is not true?

1. Rule of Law do cause wealth in society.
2. Rule of Law do case decrease in homicide .

I would hazard a guess no, then since we can generally assume that more order society correlate strongly with GDP per capita by a real causation effect, then the same selection of country seeing a lesser correlation between guns and homicide, yet showing a strong correlation between wealth and guns...... that is a more realistic view on the so called liberal claim of guns potential correlation with homicide.

Does that prove causation either? no, but it is worth looking into, and again one must look into the reality that even if you take 1 out of 2 guns away in the USA, it will still remain the highest gun per capita country in the world or at least very close to it. so wouldn't the total resistence to any regulation not make much sense?

Lotts graph and how it interact if the USA is thrown in also could suggest that while getting gun ownership ratio up to 20-40% isn't bad or even good for overall safety, the effect start to reverse past that point. but since we have no other data point past that point. we'll never really have anything to compare it to.

Are you talking about natural law, which is rule of law, or posited law, rule of man. The former doesn't cause wealth, it leave man free to pursue happiness--wealth is not just money or materialistic. Posited law restricts that.

The correlation between any X and any Y could suggest X causes Y or Y causes X or neither. Does wealth drive guns or guns wealth or neither?

Trying to reduce a complex world to a few simple variables doesn't go far.