The Official TPF Election Prediction Thread

[DGUtley]

Here ye!! Here ye!! Here Ye!! Ok Folks, step up and make your predictions (and say 'why' if you so choose). What will the results of the midterm elections be?

The D's Take the House?
The D's Take the Senate?
The R's Keep the House?
The R's Keep the Senate?
There's a Tie in the Senate?
Trump will call out the military, declare himself Dictator for Life and elections won't be necessary.
Antifa will rise up Tuesday morning, kill all Republicans and install Bernie Sanders as Supreme Emperor.

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[Chloe]

Democrats barely win the house
Republicans barely keep the senate

[Captain Obvious]

Dems take both

[Green Arrow]

Dems win House 233-202, Reps keep Senate 52-48.

[donttread]

Here ye!! Here ye!! Here Ye!! Ok Folks, step up and make your predictions (and say 'why' if you so choose). What will the results of the midterm elections be?

The D's Take the House?
The D's Take the Senate?
The R's Keep the House?
The R's Keep the Senate?
There's a Tie in the Senate?
Trump will call out the military, declare himself Dictator for Life and elections won't be necessary.
Antifa will rise up Tuesday morning, kill all Republicans and install Bernie Sanders as Supreme Emperor.

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Yup, the people will vote for one half or the other of the politics as usually they pretend to hate. The Donekphant will win and the people will lose. just like all other modern elections.

[The Xl]

I think the dems take both, barely.

[Captdon]

D barely take the House.

R keep the Senate and gain 2 seats.

[gamewell45]

Republicans maintain control of the Senate

Republicans maintain control of Congress by one vote.

[Mini Me]

The Rethugs will find the way to cheat in the election!

That's the only way they can win!

Then Trump will invade mexico! LOL!

[nathanbforrest45]

Republicans win both the House and the Senate. Democrats attack Fort Sumter once again.

[IMPress Polly]

Saw this just now, so before I hit the slopes, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict a full-fledged Democratic route:

-Democrats retake the House easily, gaining at least 35 additional seats. (They need 23 to retake the House.)
-Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly.
-Democrats pick up a whole bunch of additional state governorships and legislatures.

My Senate prediction will probably be the most contested, so let me lay it out: There are four Senate seats currently held by Democrats in the relatively rural Midwest -- Heidi Heidkamp's in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly's in Indiana, Clare McCaskill's in Missouri, and Joe Manchin's in West Virginia -- that are considered to be "vulnerable" by the experts this year. I predict that all four of them will hold their seats and that furthermore the Democrats will pick up at least two of the following three additional Senate seats in the American West: Arizona, Nevada, and/or Texas.

In the wake of the pipe bombs and the synagogue massacre, the energy is visibly concentrated on one side of this contest and independents are also visibly breaking for the Democrats this year, in contrast to all previous elections this decade (2010, '12, '14, and '16). I think that "October surprise" changed this from what would've been a close contest to a Democratic route. It's the one silver lining to those horrific developments that I don't lose sleep worrying about the outcome of this election anymore.

[Captain Obvious]

And this is the election I officially withdraw from voting.

[Lummy]

Democrats get kicked to the curb big time, where they sleep homeless for the next 20 years. A new Democrat party forms from the liberal faction of Republicans, and America moves forward again in its oldest tradition of fits and starts.

[MMC]

Repubs will gain 3-4 Senate Seats.


Repubs hold the House by 2 seats.


HUGE: Early Voting Data Tells The Real Story About The “Blue Wave”.....

[/URL][URL]https://ilovemyfreedom.org/trump-sa...._medium=postup (https://ilovemyfreedom.org/trump-sa...ight/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=postup)


https://ilovemyfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Early-Voting-Chart.jpg


Currently.....the leftness is getting its ass kicked. Oh and after the Repubs win. Keep the leftness in Depression and as Maxine says. Let them know they aren't wanted here, anywhere, anymore.

[MMC]

That's Right Lames of the Leftness.....that's NBC Data. Your kind showing you your near future.


Of failure.....your usual.

[nathanbforrest45]

Saw this just now, so before I hit the slopes, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict a full-fledged Democratic route:

-Democrats retake the House easily, gaining at least 35 additional seats. (They need 23 to retake the House.)
-Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly.
-Democrats pick up a whole bunch of additional state governorships and legislatures.

My Senate prediction will probably be the most contested, so let me lay it out: There are four Senate seats currently held by Democrats in the relatively rural Midwest -- Heidi Heidkamp's in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly's in Indiana, Clare McCaskill's in Missouri, and Joe Manchin's in West Virginia -- that are considered to be "vulnerable" by the experts this year. I predict that all four of them will hold their seats and that furthermore the Democrats will pick up at least two of the following three additional Senate seats in the American West: Arizona, Nevada, and/or Texas.

In the wake of the pipe bombs and the synagogue massacre, the energy is visibly concentrated on one side of this contest and independents are also visibly breaking for the Democrats this year, in contrast to all previous elections this decade (2010, '12, '14, and '16). I think that "October surprise" changed this from what would've been a close contest to a Democratic route. It's the one silver lining to those horrific developments that I don't lose sleep worrying about the outcome of this election anymore.
Oh Look, dozens of flying pigs are in the air.

[IMPress Polly]

Oh Look, dozens of flying pigs are in the air.

Says someone who, as memory serves, predicted a Mitt Romney landslide in 2012. :grin:

[Hoosier8]

R keeps the Senate. If Ds take the House it will be barely.

[Chris]

Says someone who, as memory serves, predicted a Mitt Romney landslide in 2012. :grin:

And who predicted Clinton's over Trump?

[IMPress Polly]

And who predicted Clinton's over Trump?

I'll admit I was wrong, but I'll also point out that I hadn't exactly predicted a landslide either. (I had also predicted a Trump victory at multiple earlier points in the race too, for example.) And incidentally, Clinton DID win the popular vote, you may recall!

The uncertainty that I felt in 2016 is something I'm not experiencing presently.

[Chris]

My sense, based on listening to others guess, is the Dems might take the House but the Reps keep the Senate. Seriously, I think it's a crapshoot.

[MMC]

Now even a CNN reporter isn't seeing it for the Demos. How long before CNN fires him for telling the truth?



CNN Reporter: I Don't See A Blue Wave Coming.....

Among registered voters, 71 percent say the economy is good or excellent, up from 60 percent in August. Those who give the economy positive ratings favor Republican candidates for the House by 54 to 40 percent, wider than the 49 to 42 percent margin in August.

Similarly, more than 8 in 10 adults say they are either doing about as well financially as they were before Trump became president (60 percent), or are doing better (25 percent). Just 13 percent say they are not as well off. That 13 percent figure is also among the lowest in 18 years; the last time it dropped that low was in the final year of President Bill Clinton’s administration, when a boom in technology fueled a rising economy.

Those who rank immigration as one of the most important issues in the election favor Republicans over Democrats by 12 points when choosing a generic congressional candidate, though the gap among this group is tenuous given its large error margin. For those who say border security is one of their top issues, Republicans lead Democrats by 42 points on the House vote.

Those groups who have shifted toward Republicans on the issues of immigration since early October include white men without college degrees, voters over age 65 and voters who live in rural areas — all staples of the coalition that elected the president two years ago.

Even CNN reporter Jeff Zeleny said that Democrats should hit the brakes a bit and temper the confidence because he doesn’t see a blue wave coming (via NTK Network (https://ntknetwork.com/cnn-to-democrats-stop-thinking-about-a-blue-wave-its-not-going-to-happen/?utm_source=push&utm_medium=notification)): …..snip~


https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattv...porter-i-dont-see-a-blue-wave-coming-n2534778 (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2018/11/04/cnn-reporter-i-dont-see-a-blue-wave-coming-n2534778)

[MisterVeritis]

Republicans maintain control of the Senate
Republicans maintain control of Congress by one vote.
This makes no sense.

[Green Arrow]

This makes no sense.

While technically both the Senate and the House are collectively known as Congress, the House is often referred to as congress and its members as congressman/congresswoman.

[MisterVeritis]

While technically both the Senate and the House are collectively known as Congress, the House is often referred to as congress and its members as congressman/congresswoman.
I expect better from people on political boards.

[Common]

The odds are im wrong, I am terrible at Political predictions

Dems take the house
GOP keeps the senate

[Green Arrow]

I expect better from people on political boards.

Better than correct? LOL, okay...

[MMC]

Oh my, now the Demos are worried about Joe Manchin.


Whoa: GOP Actually Leads in National Early Voting -- Plus, Dems Suddenly Worried About Joe Manchin? (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/11/02/is-joe-manchin-vulnerable-n2533959)

[MMC]

AHAHAHHAHA.


http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?attachments/39we-jpg.77800/

[Captdon]

Says someone who, as memory serves, predicted a Mitt Romney landslide in 2012. :grin:

If Heitcamp wins, all Dems win. She as sure a loser as ever was.

[Captdon]

I'll admit I was wrong, but I'll also point out that I hadn't exactly predicted a landslide either. (I had also predicted a Trump victory at multiple earlier points in the race too, for example.) And incidentally, Clinton DID win the popular vote, you may recall!

The uncertainty that I felt in 2016 is something I'm not experiencing presently.

You should be. You're in for a bad night. You have gone too far this time. You should have hedged your bet. Heitcamp? Really? You should at least change that one.

[Captdon]

Yup, the people will vote for one half or the other of the politics as usually they pretend to hate. The Donekphant will win and the people will lose. just like all other modern elections.


As opposed to doing what? The woman running for the House in my district is a pure Trump supporter. I shouldn't vote for why?

[IMPress Polly]

The weakest links in my prediction back on page 2 are definitely Heidi Heitkamp (of North Dakota) and Beto O'Rourke (of Texas). One of both of them could actually lose and if they both do than my prediction for the Senate outcome will prove wrong by one race. We'll see!

Heidkamp isn't really the kind of Democrat I care for anyway, honestly, but Beto O'Rourke is someone I would really like to see win if he can.

[donttread]

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that at least 90% of the winners will be fiscal liberals

[Captdon]

The weakest links in my prediction back on page 2 are definitely Heidi Heitkamp (of North Dakota) and Beto O'Rourke (of Texas). One of both of them could actually lose and if they both do than my prediction for the Senate outcome will prove wrong by one race. We'll see!

Heidkamp isn't really the kind of Democrat I care for anyway, honestly, but Beto O'Rourke is someone I would really like to see win if he can.

They will lose. No doubts about that. They are losers for sure. Polly, they can't win. Giver up on them.

[MMC]

Hawley vs. McCaskill: Coverage of the 2018 Senate race
20 hrs ago



Hawley vs. McCaskill: Coverage of the 2018 Senate race ... (https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/hawley-vs-mccaskill-coverage-of-the-senate-race/collection_631fcfa5-249e-5623-9004-f8aadfc2ec01.html)

https://www.stltoday.com (http://www.stltoday.com)/news/local/govt-and-politics/hawley-vs-mc...
Post-Dispatch coverage of the 2018 race for Missouri's U.S ... Trump will be stumping for Republican Senate candidate Josh Hawley, Missouri's attorney general. ... McCaskill is 8 points behind Hawley



Trump has given Hawley the bump he needed. The Demos will lose McCaskill's seat. That means N Dakota and Missouri are losses for the Demos. Which gives the Senate to the Repubs.....now anything else is just gravy on the Taters.

Oh and Trumps visits to Florida yesterday......put Scott up over nelson by 2. Indiana- Braun is up 4 over Donnelly.

[Docthehun]

Democrats barely win the house
Republicans barely keep the senate

Good call gal!

[IMPress Polly]

Hmm. After reviewing the less encouraging new weekend polls this morning, I'm going to move back off that limb that I went out on earlier and say that Chloe's prediction back on page 1 was probably right. I'm just gonna agree with that prediction.

[MisterVeritis]

Better than correct? LOL, okay...
The Congress consists of two parts, a House of Representatives and a Senate. It is not the Senate and the Congress. It is the House and Senate.

[DGUtley]

The Congress consists of two parts, a House of Representatives and a Senate. It is not the Senate and the Congress. It is the House and Senate.


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[Captain Obvious]

Hopefully it's a red wave so we can criminalize abortion, reinstate Jim Crow laws, ban Muslims and nominate David Duke to SCOTUS when that old bat finally croaks

[Tahuyaman]

Democrats barely win the house
Republicans barely keep the senate

It’s difficult to make predictions for a couple of reasons.

First, the political atmosphere has changed over the last few years. There’s a definite anti establishment mood which is composed of people on the left and right.

Second, all indications are that turnout is going to be much higher than ever before in a mid term election. Once again this turnout is happening on both the left and right.

[Tahuyaman]

I think the dems take both, barely.
If that happens watch for the reviving of the economy come to a screeching halt.

[Tahuyaman]

Republicans maintain control of the Senate

Republicans maintain control of Congress by one vote.
So you think nothing changes?

[Tahuyaman]

Saw this just now, so before I hit the slopes, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict a full-fledged Democratic route:

-Democrats retake the House easily, gaining at least 35 additional seats. (They need 23 to retake the House.)
-Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly.
-Democrats pick up a whole bunch of additional state governorships and legislatures.

My Senate prediction will probably be the most contested, so let me lay it out: There are four Senate seats currently held by Democrats in the relatively rural Midwest -- Heidi Heidkamp's in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly's in Indiana, Clare McCaskill's in Missouri, and Joe Manchin's in West Virginia -- that are considered to be "vulnerable" by the experts this year. I predict that all four of them will hold their seats and that furthermore the Democrats will pick up at least two of the following three additional Senate seats in the American West: Arizona, Nevada, and/or Texas.

In the wake of the pipe bombs and the synagogue massacre, the energy is visibly concentrated on one side of this contest and independents are also visibly breaking for the Democrats this year, in contrast to all previous elections this decade (2010, '12, '14, and '16). I think that "October surprise" changed this from what would've been a close contest to a Democratic route. It's the one silver lining to those horrific developments that I don't lose sleep worrying about the outcome of this election anymore.
I think that’s unlikely. There’s not going to be a rout on either side.

[Tahuyaman]

Says someone who, as memory serves, predicted a Mitt Romney landslide in 2012. :grin:
How can you remember that? He wasn’t a member here then.

[Tahuyaman]

While technically both the Senate and the House are collectively known as Congress, the House is often referred to as congress and its members as congressman/congresswoman.
Do you think it’s even possible for either party to take control of the House of Representatives by one vote? I don’t, but it would be interesting if that happened. Of course partisanship would be out of control.

[Tahuyaman]

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that at least 90% of the winners will be fiscal liberals
They might be, but they won’t be campaigning as fiscal liberals.

[Green Arrow]

Do you think it’s even possible for either party to take control of the House of Representatives by one vote? I don’t, but it would be interesting if that happened. Of course partisanship would be out of control.

It’s technically possible, but highly unlikely.

[gamewell45]

So you think nothing changes?

I predict it'll remain the same.

[IMPress Polly]

@Chloe (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=565), @Green Arrow (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=868)

(I mention the two of you specifically because the honest truth of the matter is that I'm more interested in your opinions than I am in those of others around here, as I suspect you are both aware. I wouldn't make a good politician.)

You know what, after examining a few MORE polls last night and this morning, fuck it, I'm going back to something resembling my original prediction: I predict officially that...

-Democrats retake the House easily, gaining approximately 35 additional seats. (They need 23 to retake the House.)
-Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly.
-Democrats pick up a whole bunch of additional state governorships and legislatures.

The real question for me here has been the Senate contests, and most specifically which way two them -- the one in North Dakota and the one in Texas -- will go. About the rest of them I have consistently felt pretty confident of what the outcome will be. I have reached the conclusion at this late hour that North Dakota voters will elect Republican Kevin Cramer to replace incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. I have also reached the conclusion that Texas voters will most likely elect Democrat Beto O'Rourke to replace incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Those have been the most taxing races on my mind. I feel more assured of the outcome of the rest. Specifically, I am pretty confident that Claire McCaskill will hold onto her seat in Missouri, that Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin of Indiana and West Virginia respectively will retain their seats as well, and the Democratic challengers will defeat Republican incumbents in both Arizona and Nevada. Depending on whether my prediction in the case of Texas proves to be right, this will leave us with outcome of either 50 seats for Democrats and 50 seats for Republicans or, if I'm right, 51 for Democrats and 49 for Republicans.

While few polls have showed Beto O'Rourke actually leading Ted Cruz, they show a definite directionality in his favor, with the very most recent polls showing him either less than two points behind Ted Cruz or else outperforming him by three points. This trend mirrors what we are seeing on the ground more than the Real Clear Politics average of polls does. For example, 5.8 million Texans have already voted, up from 5.5 million in the 2016 presidential election (which is unheard of for a midterm contest). Is that uptick the result of increased excitement for Ted Cruz? I doubt it. I doubt it especially in the consideration of the fact that the youth share of the vote in Texas has risen from 5% of the total at this same point in 2014 (the last midterm election we had) to 8.5% of the total as of this morning. Those aren't Ted Cruz voters.

Let me get on my soap box for a minute though and say something about the spiritual reason why I have confidence in Beto O'Rourke's ability to win this contest tonight. It's not just these numbers and trend lines. Beto O'Rourke and Andrew Gillum are two candidates who I've followed especially closely in this election cycle because they are its proverbial rock stars: the newbs to statewide/national politics who are proving especially popular not only with progressives, but also others as well. I really like both too, more so than a lot of the other new candidates for high public office that we're seeing emerge in this election cycle. Specifically, I have special confidence in these two new candidates for the Governorship of Florida and the Texas delegation to the U.S. Senate respectively because they strike me as possessing, if you will, the echo of Bernie Sanders, who represents my state in the U.S. Senate.

By all rights, Vermont SHOULD be the most conservative, pro-Trump, Republican state in the country. We are, after all, the whitest state in the country, the most rural state in the country, and we also have an aging population, as the youth are tending to leave from boredom because the state remains so agrarian and rural. The demography of Vermont says that we should be Donald Trump's biggest fans. And yet we are nothing of the kind. You know why that is? It's because the Democrats and left-leaning third parties and independents here are of a different mentality than the national Democratic Party is, taken as a whole, and I see that same difference of mentality in Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke.

Gillum and O'Rourke are not wishy-washy, stand-for-nothing, generic neoliberal corporate Democrats. They are both solid ideological progressives; solid leftists who believe sincerely in principles of equality, to which end neither of them takes a dime in corporate campaign donations. They are both running authentic people's campaigns. And they want to include all of the people in that: they have both visited every county and district in their respective states on the campaign trail, not just politically "safe" areas that are considered to be demographically friendlier to leftish politics. They want to hear from and represent everyone regardless of whether everyone agrees with all that they stand for or not. And they really don't do a lot of what they call negative campaigning. They don't run attack ads against their respective opponents, for example, but instead run position statement ads that highlight their views on the issues. They defend themselves strongly when attacked, and they defend what they stand for in a principled-yet-open way, but they don't initiate conflict.

Put all of that together for a minute. THAT is what people are looking for! They are looking for candidates who are authentic, who possess actual principles instead of just an aspiration to governmental power, and who are also open-minded and will listen to those who disagree with them instead of doing what you've seen Trump do throughout this contest: just campaign in areas that are considered politically "safe" and talk only to existing supporters, not caring about anyone else. Principled, authentic, good listeners. That's what people want. These are the same qualities that have made Bernie Sanders the most popular and respected member of the U.S. Senate (https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/). I dare say that it's what people are looking for not just in politicians, but in people generally. It's a combination of qualities that is in too short a supply. And that's why Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke are going to win their respective contests, at least I believe.

*Steps off soap box.*

[Common]

Losing midterms isnt something new, Democrats did it under obama in a HUGE way lost both the house and senate

I predicted the dems will win the house long ago, they may even take the senate.
They will not have a veto proof majority and they wont have the supreme court and they will lose the majority the next election

[MMC]

Losing midterms isnt something new, Democrats did it under obama in a HUGE way lost both the house and senate

I predicted the dems will win the house long ago, they may even take the senate.
They will not have a veto proof majority and they wont have the supreme court and they will lose the majority the next election

They wont be taking the senate.....Repubs know they have held with Heidtkamp and McCaskill. The only ones that think McCaskill is still in it. IS the Lame Scream National pollsters. Missouri Polls and Newspapers have Hawley up by 8.

[Trish]

Do you think it’s even possible for either party to take control of the House of Representatives by one vote? I don’t, but it would be interesting if that happened. Of course partisanship would be out of control.

And it isn't already?

[Tahuyaman]

And it isn't already?


It can get worse.

[Captdon]

Beto boy isn't going to come close to beating Cruz. Heitcamp will lose and lose big. She failed to represent her state.

The Democrats are not going to win the Senate either.

You're in for a disappointing night. Not as bad as Hildebeast losing but not much to cheer about.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

Tester is winning by one point.

McSally is ahead buy a point.

Tester is ahead by one point.

McCaskill is behind by four points

Cruz is up by nine points.

Braun is ahead of Donnelly by a point.

You take the polls for what they're worth but you have no reason to think the Democrats can take the Senate.
You're going to find 54 Republicans in the Senate.

[Chris]

@Chloe (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=565), @Green Arrow (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=868)

(I mention the two of you specifically because the honest truth of the matter is that I'm more interested in your opinions than I am in those of others around here, as I suspect you are both aware. I wouldn't make a good politician.)

You know what, after examining a few MORE polls last night and this morning, fuck it, I'm going back to something resembling my original prediction: I predict officially that...

-Democrats retake the House easily, gaining approximately 35 additional seats. (They need 23 to retake the House.)
-Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly.
-Democrats pick up a whole bunch of additional state governorships and legislatures.

The real question for me here has been the Senate contests, and most specifically which way two them -- the one in North Dakota and the one in Texas -- will go. About the rest of them I have consistently felt pretty confident of what the outcome will be. I have reached the conclusion at this late hour that North Dakota voters will elect Republican Kevin Cramer to replace incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. I have also reached the conclusion that Texas voters will most likely elect Democrat Beto O'Rourke to replace incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Those have been the most taxing races on my mind. I feel more assured of the outcome of the rest. Specifically, I am pretty confident that Claire McCaskill will hold onto her seat in Missouri, that Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin of Indiana and West Virginia respectively will retain their seats as well, and the Democratic challengers will defeat Republican incumbents in both Arizona and Nevada. Depending on whether my prediction in the case of Texas proves to be right, this will leave us with outcome of either 50 seats for Democrats and 50 seats for Republicans or, if I'm right, 51 for Democrats and 49 for Republicans.

While few polls have showed Beto O'Rourke actually leading Ted Cruz, they show a definite directionality in his favor, with the very most recent polls showing him either less than two points behind Ted Cruz or else outperforming him by three points. This trend mirrors what we are seeing on the ground more than the Real Clear Politics average of polls does. For example, 5.8 million Texans have already voted, up from 5.5 million in the 2016 presidential election (which is unheard of for a midterm contest). Is that uptick the result of increased excitement for Ted Cruz? I doubt it. I doubt it especially in the consideration of the fact that the youth share of the vote in Texas has risen from 5% of the total at this same point in 2014 (the last midterm election we had) to 8.5% of the total as of this morning. Those aren't Ted Cruz voters.

Let me get on my soap box for a minute though and say something about the spiritual reason why I have confidence in Beto O'Rourke's ability to win this contest tonight. It's not just these numbers and trend lines. Beto O'Rourke and Andrew Gillum are two candidates who I've followed especially closely in this election cycle because they are its proverbial rock stars: the newbs to statewide/national politics who are proving especially popular not only with progressives, but also others as well. I really like both too, more so than a lot of the other new candidates for high public office that we're seeing emerge in this election cycle. Specifically, I have special confidence in these two new candidates for the Governorship of Florida and the Texas delegation to the U.S. Senate respectively because they strike me as possessing, if you will, the echo of Bernie Sanders, who represents my state in the U.S. Senate.

By all rights, Vermont SHOULD be the most conservative, pro-Trump, Republican state in the country. We are, after all, the whitest state in the country, the most rural state in the country, and we also have an aging population, as the youth are tending to leave from boredom because the state remains so agrarian and rural. The demography of Vermont says that we should be Donald Trump's biggest fans. And yet we are nothing of the kind. You know why that is? It's because the Democrats and left-leaning third parties and independents here are of a different mentality than the national Democratic Party is, taken as a whole, and I see that same difference of mentality in Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke.

Gillum and O'Rourke are not wishy-washy, stand-for-nothing, generic neoliberal corporate Democrats. They are both solid ideological progressives; solid leftists who believe sincerely in principles of equality, to which end neither of them takes a dime in corporate campaign donations. They are both running authentic people's campaigns. And they want to include all of the people in that: they have both visited every county and district in their respective states on the campaign trail, not just politically "safe" areas that are considered to be demographically friendlier to leftish politics. They want to hear from and represent everyone regardless of whether everyone agrees with all that they stand for or not. And they really don't do a lot of what they call negative campaigning. They don't run attack ads against their respective opponents, for example, but instead run position statement ads that highlight their views on the issues. They defend themselves strongly when attacked, and they defend what they stand for in a principled-yet-open way, but they don't initiate conflict.

Put all of that together for a minute. THAT is what people are looking for! They are looking for candidates who are authentic, who possess actual principles instead of just an aspiration to governmental power, and who are also open-minded and will listen to those who disagree with them instead of doing what you've seen Trump do throughout this contest: just campaign in areas that are considered politically "safe" and talk only to existing supporters, not caring about anyone else. Principled, authentic, good listeners. That's what people want. These are the same qualities that have made Bernie Sanders the most popular and respected member of the U.S. Senate (https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/). I dare say that it's what people are looking for not just in politicians, but in people generally. It's a combination of qualities that is in too short a supply. And that's why Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke are going to win their respective contests, at least I believe.

*Steps off soap box.*


Two thoughts. One, use PMs. Two, polls are blowing in the wind and shift direction depending on who conducts them and what day it is.

[Trish]

It can get worse.

Yes, yes it will.

[Chloe]

Two thoughts. One, use PMs. Two, polls are blowing in the wind and shift direction depending on who conducts them and what day it is.
Be nice

[Chris]

Be nice

PMs are for personal messages.

Polls are what they are, nothing to rely on. Polls said Clinton would win.

[Chloe]

IMPress Polly I hate to be a major let down in response to your awesome post but I admittedly don’t know that much about either of those candidates. I’ve obviously heard their names and I’m aware that they are making it a very close election but I’ll have to take your word for it with regards to their character and sincerity. I hope they win!

[Chloe]

PMs are for personal messages.

Polls are what they are, nothing to rely on. Polls said Clinton would win.

Its just sometimes things are better left unsaid. What did you hope to gain by that comment to her? You don’t need to lower yourself to pettiness, you’re better than that.

[rcfieldz]

I am waiting to see if someone brings their rifles and semi-automatic handguns to the polls...

[Chris]

Its just sometimes things are better left unsaid. What did you hope to gain by that comment to her? You don’t need to lower yourself to pettiness, you’re better than that.

Well, thanks, but I was hoping to elevate discussion from one-to-one to many-to-many participation. Each format has it's own style.

[Chris]

IMPress Polly I hate to be a major let down in response to your awesome post but I admittedly don’t know that much about either of those candidates. I’ve obviously heard their names and I’m aware that they are making it a very close election but I’ll have to take your word for it with regards to their character and sincerity. I hope they win!


Rational ignorance. The fact most people have more important things to do than study political candidates.

I agree the results will be too close to matter who wins. No matter who does win, it won't change things. It's all about power.

[Chloe]

Well, thanks, but I was hoping to elevate discussion from one-to-one to many-to-many participation. Each format has it's own style.

Maybe let it happen naturally then. The comment, given the history between the two of you, seemed less like an intent to spark conversation and more of an attempt to spark a fight. I’m just saying, perhaps consider what will be gained by posting a comment like that. Telling someone who probably spent a good amount of time to type out a long sincere message about the election that they should PM isn’t going to elevate discussion. Anyway, just pointing it out from my perspective.

[Chloe]

I am waiting to see if someone brings their rifles and semi-automatic handguns to the polls...
Seems an odd thing to hold out hope for. I’m just waiting to see who wins.

[Chris]

Maybe let it happen naturally then. The comment, given the history between the two of you, seemed less like an intent to spark conversation and more of an attempt to spark a fight. I’m just saying, perhaps consider what will be gained by posting a comment like that. Telling someone who probably spent a good amount of time to type out a long sincere message about the election that they should PM isn’t going to elevate discussion. Anyway, just pointing it out from my perspective.

OK. Though I don't think Polly and I have a personal history. We just disagree politically. I encourage her to post more.

[Cletus]

@IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) I hate to be a major let down in response to your awesome post but I admittedly don’t know that much about either of those candidates. I’ve obviously heard their names and I’m aware that they are making it a very close election but I’ll have to take your word for it with regards to their character and sincerity. I hope they win!

If you don't know anything about them, why do you hope they win?

[Chloe]

If you don't know anything about them, why do you hope they win?
Because I know enough about Ted Cruz thanks to the last election to not be upset if he loses, and what I do know about Desantis is that he is a hard core Trump supporter and so because of that I would not be upset if he loses.

[MisterVeritis]

I am waiting to see if someone brings their rifles and semi-automatic handguns to the polls...
While I was at my voting place I scanned all the people looking for weapons.

[Tahuyaman]

I am waiting to see if someone brings their rifles and semi-automatic handguns to the polls...
Well, the Black Panthers have in Philly. But that's normal now isn't it?

[Tahuyaman]

If you don't know anything about them, why do you hope they win?Maybe because she bases her vote on party affiliation when she hasn't made herself aware of where a candidate stands on the issues?

[Toober]

Well, the Black Panthers have in Philly. But that's normal now isn't it?

whatever the nbp, antifa, blm, dns etc. do, they do in their own democrat strongholds.

burn, pillage, riot and shoot, they poop in their own backyards.

let it burn, baby!

[Chloe]

Maybe because she bases her vote on party affiliation when she hasn't made herself aware of where a candidate stands on the issues?
Riiiiiiiiight. First off I can't vote in either of those elections so it doesn't even matter, and secondly when have I ever displayed any belief or thought that falls in line with Cruz or other Trump supporters? So why would I vote for him?

[nathanbforrest45]

Says someone who, as memory serves, predicted a Mitt Romney landslide in 2012. :grin:


Not me for sure. I may have said I hope but I know the fickleness of the American voter to ever predict anything of the sort.

[Tahuyaman]

Maybe because she bases her vote on party affiliation when she hasn't made herself aware of where a candidate stands on the issues?


Riiiiiiiiight. First off I can't vote in either of those elections so it doesn't even matter, and secondly when have I ever displayed any belief or thought that falls in line with Cruz or other Trump supporters? So why would I vote for him?


You don't believe believe in maintaining our constitutionally guaranteed rights?

[Tahuyaman]

Not me for sure. I may have said I hope but I know the fickleness of the American voter to ever predict anything of the sort.

I dont know how IMPress Polly remembers your 2012 prediction when you didn't join the forum until a year after the election.

[Chloe]

You don't believe believe in maintaining our constitutionally guaranteed rights?
I’m sorry if I came across in my post a little combative but your question above is not a serious one and is just a setup.

[Tahuyaman]

You don't believe believe in maintaining our constitutionally guaranteed rights?


I’m sorry if I came across in my post a little combative but your question above is not a serious one and is just a setup.


Sorry, but that was a serious question. Obviously it bothered you.

[Sergeant Gleed]

While I was at my voting place I scanned all the people looking for weapons.

I think Mad Maxine's crew forgot to simulate public enthusiasm. While Omar Navarro has had signs up, for MONTHS, put up by supporters, Mad Maxine had NO SIGNS, not anywhere....and suddenly they're everywhere this morning.....like paid crews rushed around saying "shit, how could we forget to do this, if we don't get them up, we'll have to pay for them ourselves".


The signs say "Maxine Waters, Fighting Everybody" or something like that.

Naturally, because I am an American, I didn't vote for Mad Maxine.

I did vote for DiFi since I want her to get impeached by the House for her criminal activities on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and maybe Cox will become governor and maybe that old bat will die and the GOP can have a Senator from California for a little while.

[Sergeant Gleed]

I’m sorry if I came across in my post a little combative but your question above is not a serious one and is just a setup.


Actually, it's a serious question.

People who vote Rodent hate the Constitution and despise their children, their friends and their neighbors. Their Constitutional rights can't be protected when Rodents hold the bull-whip of power. That's been proven.

[Cletus]

Personally, I would like to see Cruz leave the Senate and take the old crone's seat on the Supreme Court.

[Captdon]

@IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) I hate to be a major let down in response to your awesome post but I admittedly don’t know that much about either of those candidates. I’ve obviously heard their names and I’m aware that they are making it a very close election but I’ll have to take your word for it with regards to their character and sincerity. I hope they win!

Beto isn't going to come close. I'd rain on the rest of her parade but I already did.

[Captdon]

Maybe let it happen naturally then. The comment, given the history between the two of you, seemed less like an intent to spark conversation and more of an attempt to spark a fight. I’m just saying, perhaps consider what will be gained by posting a comment like that. Telling someone who probably spent a good amount of time to type out a long sincere message about the election that they should PM isn’t going to elevate discussion. Anyway, just pointing it out from my perspective.

I agree with you to an extent. One of Polly's problems is that people usually won't read a wall of words on the net. That's a fact. She would do better to break it up. The same with responses.

[Captdon]

I’m sorry if I came across in my post a little combative but your question above is not a serious one and is just a setup.

Don't worry. Pretty blondes get away with most things. Hildebeast forgot the pretty part.

[IMPress Polly]

@IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) I hate to be a major let down in response to your awesome post but I admittedly don’t know that much about either of those candidates. I’ve obviously heard their names and I’m aware that they are making it a very close election but I’ll have to take your word for it with regards to their character and sincerity. I hope they win!

No worries, Chloe! Thanks for taking the time to read. :smiley: Will be back on the forums tomorrow morning with my thoughts.

[Captain Obvious]

Don't worry. Pretty blondes get away with most things. Hildebeast forgot the pretty part.

Masher

[Captain Obvious]

Anybody following the election?

Looks like the senate is staying red, so far, it's early though.

House - really close, if after the mid-west and non west-coast west it's still as close as it is it's going blue, kalifornia puts it over the top.

[Green Arrow]

Anybody following the election?

Looks like the senate is staying red, so far, it's early though.

House - really close, if after the mid-west and non west-coast west it's still as close as it is it's going blue, kalifornia puts it over the top.

Right now, 21 Democrats are leading in Republican-held districts, and they need 21 to flip the House.

[Chris]

Anybody following the election?

Looks like the senate is staying red, so far, it's early though.

House - really close, if after the mid-west and non west-coast west it's still as close as it is it's going blue, kalifornia puts it over the top.

About what I'm seeing. Whatever the outcome it won't be significant. A split Congress might be good for stalemates.

[roadmaster]

Not really interested. Trump kept RR who is a liberal and the man that recused himself. So anything off or illegal won't be investigated anyway.

[Green Arrow]

I dont know how @IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) remembers your 2012 prediction when you didn't join the forum until a year after the election.

Probably because they also posted on another forum together.

[Dr. Who]

Maybe because she bases her vote on party affiliation when she hasn't made herself aware of where a candidate stands on the issues?
They aren't running in her riding or even in her state - she was honest about not knowing much about them, that doesn't mean that she isn't familiar with her own candidates. Do you have extensive knowledge of every candidate running tonight? Probably not, but I'm sure you hope that the Republicans win.

[Green Arrow]

They aren't running in her riding or even in her state - she was honest about not knowing much about them, that doesn't mean that she isn't familiar with her own candidates. Do you have extensive knowledge of every candidate running tonight? Probably not, but I'm sure you hope that the Republicans win.

Party and ideological affiliation is only allowed if your party/ideology chose red as a primary color.

[Common Sense]

Damn, it looks like Beto has a chance of ousting Lyin Ted.

[Captain Obvious]

Damn, it looks like Beto has a chance of ousting Lyin Ted.

Cruz is a piece of shit, he needs to stare at his family, especially his wife for abandoning their dignity.

[Green Arrow]

The pick-up in Indiana and hold in Tennessee almost guarantee the GOP keeps the Senate, and the Indiana pick-up makes it look pretty solid like my prediction of a one seat net for the GOP is going to come to pass.

[Common Sense]

Cruz is a piece of shit, he needs to stare at his family, especially his wife for abandoning their dignity.

Agreed. It was nauseating watching the slimy cuck fellate Trump after Trump insulted his wife and father. He's a slime ball with zero integrity.

[Green Arrow]

Agreed. It was nauseating watching the slimy cuck fellate Trump after Trump insulted his wife and father. He's a slime ball with zero integrity.

If I had been in his position, I don't care if I agreed with Trump 110% - insulting my father would be bad enough, insulting my wife would be unforgivable.

[Tahuyaman]

They aren't running in her riding or even in her state - she was honest about not knowing much about them, that doesn't mean that she isn't familiar with her own candidates. Do you have extensive knowledge of every candidate running tonight? Probably not, but I'm sure you hope that the Republicans win.
I pay attention to certain candidates in other states. Especially high profile candidates.

[Tahuyaman]

Probably because they also posted on another forum together.

Really?

[Dr. Who]

Party and ideological affiliation is only allowed if your party/ideology chose red as a primary color.

Honestly, some people are so mean-spirited and arrogant that they feel the need to treat members who go out of their way to be respectful as if they are imbeciles or trolls just because they don't happen to share their political affiliation. Then again, when they don't agree with each other, they behave like wild dogs fighting over a carcass, so I guess it's a bit much to expect civility toward anyone on the blue team.

[Chris]

Honestly, some people are so mean-spirited and arrogant that they feel the need to treat members who go out of their way to be respectful as if they are imbeciles or trolls just because they don't happen to share their political affiliation. Then again, when they don't agree with each other, they behave like wild dogs fighting over a carcass, so I guess it's a bit much to expect civility toward anyone on the blue team.

"mean-spirited and arrogant" like that^^ post?

[Chris]

Election 2018 exit poll analysis: 47 percent say vulnerable North Dakota senator's vote against Kavanaugh was a factor (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2018-exit-poll-analysis-56-percent-country/story?id=59006586).

The blue really blew it there.

[Dr. Who]

I pay attention to certain candidates in other states. Especially high profile candidates.
So, you are retired and have all day to read up on all the candidates. Politics is clearly your hobby. People who are single, young and working have different time commitments and shouldn't be spending all their time researching candidates unless they want to make a career in politics. If they know nothing much about any other candidate in any other state, it really doesn't matter because they cannot affect those elections.

[Dr. Who]

"mean-spirited and arrogant" like that^^ post?
Yes. Exactly that. Being perpetually mean, arrogant and/or obstreperous for no reason should not be worn as a badge of honor. There was a time when I would have held my tongue, but that has changed. Call me a social justice warrior, but I am disinclined to ignore attacking members personally for no reason other than disliking their political affiliation.

[Green Arrow]

Really?

I believe so. I know I've posted on at least two or three (count includes this forum) different forums where nathanbforrest and Polly were both members.

[Green Arrow]

Damn, two threads in a row with the parrot game right after I predicted it was coming. I'm on a roll.

[Green Arrow]

I apologize, IMPress Polly, for taking so long to get back to this. It's been a fairly busy day, and posts like this I prefer to respond to on my computer so I can give it the thought it deserves instead of short responses.


@Chloe (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=565), @Green Arrow (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=868)

(I mention the two of you specifically because the honest truth of the matter is that I'm more interested in your opinions than I am in those of others around here, as I suspect you are both aware. I wouldn't make a good politician.)

You know what, after examining a few MORE polls last night and this morning, fuck it, I'm going back to something resembling my original prediction: I predict officially that...

-Democrats retake the House easily, gaining approximately 35 additional seats. (They need 23 to retake the House.)
-Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly.
-Democrats pick up a whole bunch of additional state governorships and legislatures.
While I respect your prediction and find it entirely possible (most anything is), I still can't stray from my original prediction. I see the Democrats taking the House (so far your 35 seat net seems likely) and the Republicans keeping the Senate and netting at least one seat. So far, though, it's looking like the Republicans might actually net two or three seats.

The real question for me here has been the Senate contests, and most specifically which way two them -- the one in North Dakota and the one in Texas -- will go. About the rest of them I have consistently felt pretty confident of what the outcome will be. I have reached the conclusion at this late hour that North Dakota voters will elect Republican Kevin Cramer to replace incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. I have also reached the conclusion that Texas voters will most likely elect Democrat Beto O'Rourke to replace incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Those have been the most taxing races on my mind. I feel more assured of the outcome of the rest. Specifically, I am pretty confident that Claire McCaskill will hold onto her seat in Missouri, that Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin of Indiana and West Virginia respectively will retain their seats as well, and the Democratic challengers will defeat Republican incumbents in both Arizona and Nevada. Depending on whether my prediction in the case of Texas proves to be right, this will leave us with outcome of either 50 seats for Democrats and 50 seats for Republicans or, if I'm right, 51 for Democrats and 49 for Republicans.

While few polls have showed Beto O'Rourke actually leading Ted Cruz, they show a definite directionality in his favor, with the very most recent polls showing him either less than two points behind Ted Cruz or else outperforming him by three points. This trend mirrors what we are seeing on the ground more than the Real Clear Politics average of polls does. For example, 5.8 million Texans have already voted, up from 5.5 million in the 2016 presidential election (which is unheard of for a midterm contest). Is that uptick the result of increased excitement for Ted Cruz? I doubt it. I doubt it especially in the consideration of the fact that the youth share of the vote in Texas has risen from 5% of the total at this same point in 2014 (the last midterm election we had) to 8.5% of the total as of this morning. Those aren't Ted Cruz voters.

Let me get on my soap box for a minute though and say something about the spiritual reason why I have confidence in Beto O'Rourke's ability to win this contest tonight. It's not just these numbers and trend lines. Beto O'Rourke and Andrew Gillum are two candidates who I've followed especially closely in this election cycle because they are its proverbial rock stars: the newbs to statewide/national politics who are proving especially popular not only with progressives, but also others as well. I really like both too, more so than a lot of the other new candidates for high public office that we're seeing emerge in this election cycle. Specifically, I have special confidence in these two new candidates for the Governorship of Florida and the Texas delegation to the U.S. Senate respectively because they strike me as possessing, if you will, the echo of Bernie Sanders, who represents my state in the U.S. Senate.

By all rights, Vermont SHOULD be the most conservative, pro-Trump, Republican state in the country. We are, after all, the whitest state in the country, the most rural state in the country, and we also have an aging population, as the youth are tending to leave from boredom because the state remains so agrarian and rural. The demography of Vermont says that we should be Donald Trump's biggest fans. And yet we are nothing of the kind. You know why that is? It's because the Democrats and left-leaning third parties and independents here are of a different mentality than the national Democratic Party is, taken as a whole, and I see that same difference of mentality in Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke.

Gillum and O'Rourke are not wishy-washy, stand-for-nothing, generic neoliberal corporate Democrats. They are both solid ideological progressives; solid leftists who believe sincerely in principles of equality, to which end neither of them takes a dime in corporate campaign donations. They are both running authentic people's campaigns. And they want to include all of the people in that: they have both visited every county and district in their respective states on the campaign trail, not just politically "safe" areas that are considered to be demographically friendlier to leftish politics. They want to hear from and represent everyone regardless of whether everyone agrees with all that they stand for or not. And they really don't do a lot of what they call negative campaigning. They don't run attack ads against their respective opponents, for example, but instead run position statement ads that highlight their views on the issues. They defend themselves strongly when attacked, and they defend what they stand for in a principled-yet-open way, but they don't initiate conflict.

Put all of that together for a minute. THAT is what people are looking for! They are looking for candidates who are authentic, who possess actual principles instead of just an aspiration to governmental power, and who are also open-minded and will listen to those who disagree with them instead of doing what you've seen Trump do throughout this contest: just campaign in areas that are considered politically "safe" and talk only to existing supporters, not caring about anyone else. Principled, authentic, good listeners. That's what people want. These are the same qualities that have made Bernie Sanders the most popular and respected member of the U.S. Senate (https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/). I dare say that it's what people are looking for not just in politicians, but in people generally. It's a combination of qualities that is in too short a supply. And that's why Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke are going to win their respective contests, at least I believe.

*Steps off soap box.*

I definitely agree with you as far as preferring certain candidates. I was 100% behind Gillum and O'Rourke, I think they are both great candidates and personally interesting to me. If I lived in their states I'd definitely be a vote in their favor. The candidate I was most behind was Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, but he lost that race and it's really unfortunate. My adopted home state disappointed me with that one.

One interesting development to me is that the Democrats are picking up huge gains in state governorships. That was something I didn't expect, I expected them to be competitive but not sweeping.

What will be really fascinating to me to watch is the Senate. The GOP is pretty much guaranteed to keep it and win seats at this point, the question is how many seats will they get. Right now, CNN is projecting potentially a 54-seat majority for Republicans, which would give them a solid chance to keep it in 2020 as well.

[Tahuyaman]

I believe so. I know I've posted on at least two or three (count includes this forum) different forums where nathanbforrest and Polly were both members.
If she meant that he made that prediction in a different forum, she would have said so.

[Green Arrow]

If she meant that he made that prediction in a different forum, she would have said so.

I didn't realize you had an inside track to the inside of her thought processes.

[Captain Obvious]

I didn't realize you had an inside track to the inside of her thought processes.

He's also absolutely 100% sure that Kavanaugh never sexually assaulted someone.

A regular Carnac.

[Tahuyaman]

I didn't realize you had an inside track to the inside of her thought processes.


Do you?

She made a misstatement and I called her out. You don't like it.

[Tahuyaman]

He's also absolutely 100% sure that Kavanaugh never sexually assaulted someone... No.....He never sexually assaulted anyone, you nit-wit.

What a dumb-ass.

[Captain Obvious]

:biglaugh:

Sometimes punchlines write themselves.

[Green Arrow]

Do you?

She made a misstatement and I called her out. You don't like it.

No, but I know her fairly well and we have a history. She never said he made the claim on this forum, she just said she remembered him making the claim. I've posted on multiple forums with both of them.

[Tahuyaman]

No, but I know her fairly well and we have a history. She never said he made the claim on this forum, she just said she remembered him making the claim. I've posted on multiple forums with both of them.C'mon dude. Get real.

[Tahuyaman]

Do you think it’s even possible for either party to take control of the House of Representatives by one vote? I don’t, but it would be interesting if that happened. Of course partisanship would be out of control.


It’s technically possible, but highly unlikely.

The House of Representatives is going to be more closely divided than I thought possible.