Larry Sabato and the election in 2020

[pjohns]

In case anyone is unfamiliar with Larry Sabato, let me just say that he is a political analyst--much in the mold of Charlie Cook, Scott Rasmussen, and Stu Rothenberg.

I receive his newsletter every week.

It is my understanding that, in his personal life, he leans center-left. But he never allows his personal opinions to show through, in his newsletter. He is a serious analyst--not a partisan hack.

Anyway, in his most recent newsletter, he suggests that the GOP is likely to retain the Senate in 2020--despite the fact that almost twice as many Republican seats as Democratic seats are up for re-election--and he goes into the reasons as to why that is the case.

Here is a link to his newsletter: https://connect.xfinity.com/appsuite/#!!&app=io.ox/mail&folder=default0/INBOX

Comments?

[Peter1469]

I don't have an Xfinity account.

I haven't looked into senate races yet, but if the senate level dems are as unimpressive as those with this hats in the ring for president they won't make many gains.

[MMC]

In case anyone is unfamiliar with Larry Sabato, let me just say that he is a political analyst--much in the mold of Charlie Cook, Scott Rasmussen, and Stu Rothenberg.

I receive his newsletter every week.

It is my understanding that, in his personal life, he leans center-left. But he never allows his personal opinions to show through, in his newsletter. He is a serious analyst--not a partisan hack.

Anyway, in his most recent newsletter, he suggests that the GOP is likely to retain the Senate in 2020--despite the fact that almost twice as many Republican seats as Democratic seats are up for re-election--and he goes into the reasons as to why that is the case.

Here is a link to his newsletter: https://connect.xfinity.com/appsuite/#!!&app=io.ox/mail&folder=default0/INBOX

Comments?

Don't be surprised once the Demos lose the House either.

[Common]

Im done predicting elections, I totally suck at it and admit it

[Captdon]

It's too early to have an opinion on 2020 elections. Trump will win but I'm not ready for the others.

[pjohns]

I don't have an Xfinity account.
I posted the wrong link.

Here is the correct one: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[Peter1469]

I posted the wrong link.

Here is the correct one: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
Good article.

[Captdon]

Sabato apologized on his site for refusing to believe his own numbers in 2106. He said his polling said the results would have been right except for Michigan. He refused to believe Trump would win there or PA or FL. That's why I respect him.

Note: Nate Silver was always right until he left his disbelief erode his standings in 2016. He sucked and tried to blame it on late polling.

[MMC]

GOP retains the Senate by a Pollster. Economists using models wherein All 12 of Moody's predict Trump wins and there will be Yuge tailwind behind it. More Independents supporting Trump after the Demos mouths have opened and their behavior stepped up. More Latinos, more blacks supporting Trump. More Asians.


It just keeps getting worse for the Demos and the Leftness. Soon they will snap and do something even more stupid than already and will guarantee Trumps second term.

[pjohns]

[M]ore blacks supporting Trump.

Exactly!

And, as someone pointed out recently, this does not mean that Trump must carry a majority of the black vote--of course, that will not happen--but if he edges the GOP's share of it up from eight percent to, say, 12 or 15 percent--well, it could amount to game over...

[MMC]

Exactly!

And, as someone pointed out recently, this does not mean that Trump must carry a majority of the black vote--of course, that will not happen--but if he edges the GOP's share of it up from eight percent to, say, 12 or 15 percent--well, it could amount to game over...

Even the Professor is getting in on it.



Professor Who Predicted Last Nine Presidential Election Winners Speaks Up About 2020 …..


An American University professor who accurately predicted the Electoral College winners in the last nine presidential elections spoke to CNN about President Trump’s chances of being re-elected in the 2020 election. While Allan Lichtman (https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/lichtman.cfm) said it’s still too early to make a final call, he believes Trump will be re-elected unless six of 13 factors happen.


"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him,”the history professor told CNN. “I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."




Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016 (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1442269200/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1442269200&linkCode=as2&tag=washpost-20&linkId=YTAOSN6PMGX7UWM6)" and as summarized by WaPo's Peter Stevenson (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?utm_term=.9b6d36aac27a):


While the mainstream thinking has been that if Democrats pursue impeachment it will hurt the party and help Trump, Lichtman actually believes it may be the Left’s only chance.....snip~


https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahba...-2020-n2546999 (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2019/05/29/professor-who-correctly-predicted-last-nine-presidential-election-winners-speaks-up-about-2020-n2546999)

[Captdon]

GOP retains the Senate by a Pollster. Economists using models wherein All 12 of Moody's predict Trump wins and there will be Yuge tailwind behind it. More Independents supporting Trump after the Demos mouths have opened and their behavior stepped up. More Latinos, more blacks supporting Trump. More Asians.


It just keeps getting worse for the Demos and the Leftness. Soon they will snap and do something even more stupid than already and will guarantee Trumps second term.

Polls don't mean a whole helluva lot.

[Captdon]

Exactly!

And, as someone pointed out recently, this does not mean that Trump must carry a majority of the black vote--of course, that will not happen--but if he edges the GOP's share of it up from eight percent to, say, 12 or 15 percent--well, it could amount to game over...

He doesn't need the vote of blacks. They march in lockstep with the Democrats. I wouldn't bother with them.

[Captdon]

Even the Professor is getting in on it.



Professor Who Predicted Last Nine Presidential Election Winners Speaks Up About 2020 …..


An American University professor who accurately predicted the Electoral College winners in the last nine presidential elections spoke to CNN about President Trump’s chances of being re-elected in the 2020 election. While Allan Lichtman (https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/lichtman.cfm) said it’s still too early to make a final call, he believes Trump will be re-elected unless six of 13 factors happen.


"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him,”the history professor told CNN. “I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."




Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016 (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1442269200/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1442269200&linkCode=as2&tag=washpost-20&linkId=YTAOSN6PMGX7UWM6)" and as summarized by WaPo's Peter Stevenson (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?utm_term=.9b6d36aac27a):


While the mainstream thinking has been that if Democrats pursue impeachment it will hurt the party and help Trump, Lichtman actually believes it may be the Left’s only chance.....snip~


https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahba...-2020-n2546999 (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2019/05/29/professor-who-correctly-predicted-last-nine-presidential-election-winners-speaks-up-about-2020-n2546999)

I have correctly predicted 13 straight Presidential elections. I voted for 5 of the winners. That's how much a prediction makes.