Another great email from my buddy

[Mainecoons]

Charles Krauthammer was on O'Reilly talking about balancing the budget. I think Charles is one of the best minds out there when it comes to political things. He's not much on math.

The federal budget is $3.8Trillion dollars. The population of the US is 311MM. If you do a bit of simple math it spends (3.8T/311MM=12228 per person) However, it only collects $2.6T. (2.6T/311MM= 8336 per person) There is roughly $3900 per person difference.

The US is a closed system. That $3900 per person shows up somewhere so that the citizens do not have to pay it. It could be in Medicare or education or buying drones or bullets. Without the borrowing, the government would either have to do $3900 a person less or the people would have to cough up $3900 more a year in taxes.

Actually, there's only 168MM people working so the real nember per working person is (311/168*3900=$7219). So, the government can either tax each working person $7219 more or spend $7219 less per working person. Either path will cause a depression in the US.

The real solution to this would be to increase the percentage of people working enough to collect another $1.2T in taxes. As the percentage of people working increased, the percentage of people getting a government check would drop so you need about 40MM more people working. There's only about 20MM unemployed or under employed.

Another solution would be for everyone working to get an $8000 a year raise and just mail it in to the IRS.

The third solution is to reduce the standard of living by $3900 a year for everyone.

People do not understand how countries work. They tend to think of them like companies.

If you have a company and want to cut expenses, you fire people and they are gone, no longer your responsibility. He goes from being an big expense to a zero expense.

In a country, someone makes $100,000 and pays $40,000 in taxes in various forms. He gets fired and goes on welfare. Now, the 40,000 in taxes is gone and the government is now spending money on that person. That person has gone from an asset to a liability.

The ideal thing would be 100% employment but even then, 47% of all those working don't pay taxes. Right now, the US has 14+% unemployment and even worse, the percentage of those working and not paying taxes is increasing. This is known as a death spiral.

If you want to see what really happens, go look at Spain. Youth unemployment is 50%+, overall unemployment is 27%+ and both are increasing. With each increase in unemployment, less money is in the economy, more bankruptcy filings, more house foreclosures, fewer products bought. A death spiral.

What is the solution to all this? A lower standard of living. Lower wages, less purchasing, less waste, less government support.

The minimum wage in the US is $7.25 and in San Francisco, it is $9.00 per hour. How much do you have to make, after tax, to justify paying a nanny $9.00 an hour to watch your kids? If you make $100,000, pay the feds $30,000, CA another $10,000 and a nanny $20,000, what do you have left? Figure $20,000 for housing (a real dump in SF), transportation to and from work and now what do you have? If you can get free housing and $1000 a month not to work, what would you do?

If you go to Guadalajara Farmacia between 2pm and 3pm, there is a beautiful little girl there at the checkout counter bagging for her mother, the cashier. She is out of school and waiting on her mother to go home. I always give her a peso and she just thinks that is cool.

You can't do that in the US. They would hang you by your heels over child labor laws. However, you see that all over MX because that is what they have to do to make it work.

The US can adjust down. The question is "Will it?" or maybe a better question "Will it without social unrest?"

Obama has to know this. Too many smart advisors for him not to know it. Obamas problem is to borrow enough for the next 3 years and to get off the train before it wrecks. In 3 years, he has it made for life. Big Sis knows what is happening also and her deal is to be armed well enough to handle the train wreck that is coming.

My deal is to just stay off trains that are going to wreck. That's why I'm in MX and my assets are not in the US.

I don't know if Obama will manage to make it or not. Things are moving rapidly now and it won't take much to wreck the train.

What I found most interesting here was his comment that countries don't work like companies for the reason that when a company sheds employment, it loses a liability but when a country does the same, it gains one. Never thought of it that way but it makes sense.

[Peter1469]

It makes sense. One additional question is whether the liability for each unemployed person (all forms of benefits) is too high?

[Mainecoons]

It is, and has become a real deterrent to people finding work and becoming assets rather than liabilities. That was part of the point he was making.

[Captain Obvious]

Mainecoons - you should invite your buddy to the forum.

[Peter1469]

It is, and has become a real deterrent to people finding work and becoming assets rather than liabilities. That was part of the point he was making.

Very true.

[Mainecoons]

@Mainecoons (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=145) - you should invite your buddy to the forum.

That is a great suggestion. I'll do it.

EDIT

Just did it.

[jrm30655]

@Mainecoons (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=145) - you should invite your buddy to the forum.

Just ramblings of a deranged mind, mine.

Thanks for the invite

The secret to a pleasant life is to arrive at the party before the food is served and to leave before the cleanup starts..............

[jrm30655]

It makes sense. One additional question is whether the liability for each unemployed person (all forms of benefits) is too high?

Depends on what you are trying to accomplish.

What would life in the US be like if 7MM people were not getting unemployment checks, 47MM weren't getting food stamps, the majority of the 14MM on disability not getting those checks and the large number getting housing assistance not getting those checks?

The total works out about $800B a year which we are borrowing.

Over the past 12 years, I can only think of a handful of terrorists that we have caught in the US. Yet Big Sis is buying hollow points by the billion, 7000 fully automatic AR15s, body armor by the truckload and 2750 armored "urban tanks". Maybe Big Sis is worried that the checks might stop.

[Peter1469]

Depends on what you are trying to accomplish.

What would life in the US be like if 7MM people were not getting unemployment checks, 47MM weren't getting food stamps, the majority of the 14MM on disability not getting those checks and the large number getting housing assistance not getting those checks?

The total works out about $800B a year which we are borrowing.

Over the past 12 years, I can only think of a handful of terrorists that we have caught in the US. Yet Big Sis is buying hollow points by the billion, 7000 fully automatic AR15s, body armor by the truckload and 2750 armored "urban tanks". Maybe Big Sis is worried that the checks might stop.

No rational person is arguing for no assistance.

Let's just get it a bit lower, so there is incentive to get a job instead of playing World of War Craft for 99 weeks, and then looking for a job.

[Mainecoons]

Just ramblings of a deranged mind, mine.

Thanks for the invite

The secret to a pleasant life is to arrive at the party before the food is served and to leave before the cleanup starts..............

Hey amigo, welcome to our playpen. Wait until you get a look at some of our liberal doozies. We should be paying for the entertainment.

[jrm30655]

No rational person is arguing for no assistance.

Let's just get it a bit lower, so there is incentive to get a job instead of playing World of War Craft for 99 weeks, and then looking for a job.

I have no problem with the concept, it is the application that gets me. The question is "Doing what?"

There are 4-6 people looking for each job opening and you have the match up problem of skills, location etc.

In Michigan there was a small metal stamping plant. It made all the little clamps and gizmos that hold a car together. It ran 2 shifts, 5 days a week and had 600 employees. China was eating them on price so it shut down and the work went to China. Two years later, it reopened and Joe Biden was up there crowing that "Manufacturing had returned to the US". It was fully automated and required 14 people to run it 24/7/365. The problem is that 586 jobs vanished. What can those people do? These is no stamping plant across the street to apply for a job.

This was in a fairly small town. Take a person 30 years old who has worked there since high school, making $15 an hour and full benefits. What are they going to do? Go to McDonalds part time? Wal-Mart? Making $8 an hour part time, limited benefits?


50% of all college grads are not working in their profession after 1 year. You are hiring at Wal-Mart. You have the production worker and a college grad applying for the one job. Who do you hire?


I do virtual work on the web. I see ads all the time "$8.50 per hour, college degree perferred".


The question returns "doing what?"

[Peter1469]

The US will be forced to bring back manufacturing as economies readjust to the current reality.

[jrm30655]

The US will be forced to bring back manufacturing as economies readjust to the current reality.

It's not manufacturing, it is jobs. Over the past decade, manufacturing output has almost doubled but manufacturing jobs are down 40%.

We would have to double production to just get back the jobs lost in the last 10 years. What would we do with all that stuff? Who would we sell it to? The US is still a powerhouse of manufacturing.

Suppose you doubled the production of cars. Now you have 10MM extra cars to sell. Where do you sell them?

Or bring all of Apples assembly back. The cost would go up 50% and Apple has worldwide competitors on price now. Who would pay 50% more for those products when Samsung is 20% less at todays prices?

[Peter1469]

It's not manufacturing, it is jobs. Over the past decade, manufacturing output has almost doubled but manufacturing jobs are down 40%.

We would have to double production to just get back the jobs lost in the last 10 years. What would we do with all that stuff? Who would we sell it to? The US is still a powerhouse of manufacturing.

Suppose you doubled the production of cars. Now you have 10MM extra cars to sell. Where do you sell them?

Or bring all of Apples assembly back. The cost would go up 50% and Apple has worldwide competitors on price now. Who would pay 50% more for those products when Samsung is 20% less at todays prices?

Or build / make stuff here that we can cost effectively. Like alcohol fuels.

[Captain Obvious]

It's not manufacturing, it is jobs. Over the past decade, manufacturing output has almost doubled but manufacturing jobs are down 40%.

We would have to double production to just get back the jobs lost in the last 10 years. What would we do with all that stuff? Who would we sell it to? The US is still a powerhouse of manufacturing.

Suppose you doubled the production of cars. Now you have 10MM extra cars to sell. Where do you sell them?

Or bring all of Apples assembly back. The cost would go up 50% and Apple has worldwide competitors on price now. Who would pay 50% more for those products when Samsung is 20% less at todays prices?

To a lesser degree, this is why the US auto industry will never be long-term competitive.

[Dr. Who]

It's not manufacturing, it is jobs. Over the past decade, manufacturing output has almost doubled but manufacturing jobs are down 40%.

We would have to double production to just get back the jobs lost in the last 10 years. What would we do with all that stuff? Who would we sell it to? The US is still a powerhouse of manufacturing.

Suppose you doubled the production of cars. Now you have 10MM extra cars to sell. Where do you sell them?

Or bring all of Apples assembly back. The cost would go up 50% and Apple has worldwide competitors on price now. Who would pay 50% more for those products when Samsung is 20% less at todays prices?
I've discussed this Catch 22 on other threads. Business, be it manufacturing or other will more and more turn to automation to increase profitability. The reality is that there will be declining employment in any business that can automate. Where does that leave all of the people who used to work in those fields. They are lost both as taxpayers and as consumers. This will have repercussions to other business that will lose trade accordingly, hence more layoffs. A domino effect. With fewer taxpayers the government will become more dependent on business taxes, which will probably drive more business offshore, to the extent that they can operate from outside of the country.

The only solution that I can see the US either becoming a country that sells ideas and research, that being one that requires a highly educated population or the US devolves into a third world economy.

[jrm30655]

I've discussed this Catch 22 on other threads. Business, be it manufacturing or other will more and more turn to automation to increase profitability. The reality is that there will be declining employment in any business that can automate. Where does that leave all of the people who used to work in those fields. They are lost both as taxpayers and as consumers. This will have repercussions to other business that will lose trade accordingly, hence more layoffs. A domino effect. With fewer taxpayers the government will become more dependent on business taxes, which will probably drive more business offshore, to the extent that they can operate from outside of the country.

The only solution that I can see the US either becoming a country that sells ideas and research, that being one that requires a highly educated population or the US devolves into a third world economy.

You have the problem exactly defined but it is a worldwide problem. Look at the worldwide unemployment rates worldwide and they are all rising. In Europe, they vary from 7.8% (Germany) to 27% (Spain).

Education is not necessarily a solution. If you have a Phd and no job, you are in the same place as a high school dropout with no job. Maybe the whole world is going to become a 3rd world economy.

[Dr. Who]

You have the problem exactly defined but it is a worldwide problem. Look at the worldwide unemployment rates worldwide and they are all rising. In Europe, they vary from 7.8% (Germany) to 27% (Spain).

Education is not necessarily a solution. If you have a Phd and no job, you are in the same place as a high school dropout with no job. Maybe the whole world is going to become a 3rd world economy.
Indeed you may be right, but where does that leave the world in the current economic paradigm. Do we resign ourselves to devolution to third world status - back to the days of the wealthy and well armed claiming the lion's share and the peasants fighting over crumbs?

[Peter1469]

You have the problem exactly defined but it is a worldwide problem. Look at the worldwide unemployment rates worldwide and they are all rising. In Europe, they vary from 7.8% (Germany) to 27% (Spain).

Education is not necessarily a solution. If you have a Phd and no job, you are in the same place as a high school dropout with no job. Maybe the whole world is going to become a 3rd world economy.

Governments need to stop overtaking the economy with wasteful spending. Let the markets works.

[Dr. Who]

Governments need to stop overtaking the economy with wasteful spending. Let the markets works.
What happens to the people displaced by automation? Are there enough other compensable activities to keep people employed in the long term? Farming is largely becoming a corporate activity. Other occupations such as manufacturing and warehousing are becoming increasingly automated. Soon construction of private homes will be taken over by factory made homes, which will also be automated. Commercial construction will not be far behind. There is only so much so called "white collar" work. The scientists of the world are trying to find ways to automate everything. Research into Artificial Intelligence will eventually yield programs that can take over many bureaucratic jobs. What happens to the surplus population? Humanity is on the precipice of another major change, just as, or more impactful than industrialization. Pete, you are beginning to see the changes in the military. Drones are one of the first steps in removing people from military activity. They are experimenting with mech suits to make soldiers stronger and more impervious to assault, but that is only the precursor to robot soldiers. The handwriting is on the wall.

[Peter1469]

What happens to the people displaced by automation? Are there enough other compensable activities to keep people employed in the long term? Farming is largely becoming a corporate activity. Other occupations such as manufacturing and warehousing are becoming increasingly automated. Soon construction of private homes will be taken over by factory made homes, which will also be automated. Commercial construction will not be far behind. There is only so much so called "white collar" work. The scientists of the world are trying to find ways to automate everything. Research into Artificial Intelligence will eventually yield programs that can take over many bureaucratic jobs. What happens to the surplus population? Humanity is on the precipice of another major change, just as, or more impactful than industrialization. Pete, you are beginning to see the changes in the military. Drones are one of the first steps in removing people from military activity. They are experimenting with mech suits to make soldiers stronger and more impervious to assault, but that is only the precursor to robot soldiers. The handwriting is on the wall.

Open up space. Plenty of jobs for all.

[Dr. Who]

Open up space. Plenty of jobs for all.
I presume by space you mean outer space - yes that would work. Who will pay for it? I can see space mining, but at present the cost of shipping food and water into space is quite prohibitive, nevermind mining equipment. I fear there will be a long interval between finding work on the planet and outer space, unless there are some major discoveries in physics in the near future.

[Peter1469]

I presume by space you mean outer space - yes that would work. Who will pay for it? I can see space mining, but at present the cost of shipping food and water into space is quite prohibitive, nevermind mining equipment. I fear there will be a long interval between finding work on the planet and outer space, unless there are some major discoveries in physics in the near future.

I think that what we will get from it, will pay for it.

[jrm30655]

Robot Reality: "Last Resort" Service Jobs Next to Go; "Baxter" Back in the News (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/robot-reality-last-resort-service-jobs.html)


I have written about "Baxter" before. Baxter is not a person. Rather Baxter is a robot rapidly replacing humans in various manufacturing jobs.

See Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/meet-baxter-robot-out-to-get-your.html).

Service Jobs Next to Go

Baxter is back in the news. The Fiscal Times says The Robot Reality: Service Jobs Are Next to Go (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100592545).

If you meet Baxter, the latest humanoid robot from Rethink Robotics – you should get comfortable with him, because you'll likely be seeing more of him soon.

Rethink Robotics released Baxter last fall and received an overwhelming response from the manufacturing industry, selling out of their production capacity through April. He's cheap to buy ($22,000), easy to train, and can safely work side-by-side with humans. He's just what factories need to make their assembly lines more efficient – and yes, to replace costly human workers.

But manufacturing is only the beginning.

This April, Rethink will launch a software platform that will allow Baxter to do a more complex sequencing of tasks – for example, picking up a part, holding it in front of an inspection station and receiving a signal to place it in a "good" or "not good" pile. The company is also releasing a software development kit soon that will allow third parties – like university robotics researchers – to create applications for Baxter.

These third parties "are going to do all sorts of stuff we haven't envisioned," says Scott Eckert, CEO of Rethink Robotics. He envisions something similar to Apple's app store happening for Baxter. A spiffed-up version of the robot could soon be seen flipping burgers at McDonalds, folding t-shirts at Gap, or pouring coffee at Starbucks.

What's worrisome to Martin Ford [robotics expert and author of The Lights In the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future] is that these jobs have been offering a huge safety net to the middle class.

They're jobs he calls "the jobs of last resort." When someone can't find a salaried job, they look for lower-paying service jobs to get by – and because the jobs typically have a high turnover rate, they're more likely to be available. Think of all the college graduates who take jobs as cashiers or baristas before they find salaried work. If those jobs were to vanish, those workers would be forced to file for unemployment instead."Jobs of Last Resort

The Fed and the Obama administration are both clueless as to why this is happening and what to do about it.

Obama wants to raise minimum wages. He also sponsored Obamacare that is going to cost businesses plenty. Those moves encourage automation.

On its part, the Fed has driven interest rates to zero. When money is that cheap, all kinds of capital expenditures that would not otherwise be affordable, quickly become affordable.

Technology is actually a good thing. Few see it that way because the Fed has destroyed the value of the dollar and Obama is hell bent on giving businesses a reason to outsource jobs to robots as fast as they can.

To be fair, much of this is natural workforce evolution. However, the Fed and the Obama administration goosed the trend at the worst possible time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#3z1ZSAIFmcqDfy5E.99 (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#3z1ZSAIFmcqDfy5E.99)

[Dr. Who]

Robot Reality: "Last Resort" Service Jobs Next to Go; "Baxter" Back in the News (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/robot-reality-last-resort-service-jobs.html)




I have written about "Baxter" before. Baxter is not a person. Rather Baxter is a robot rapidly replacing humans in various manufacturing jobs.

See Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/meet-baxter-robot-out-to-get-your.html).

Service Jobs Next to Go

Baxter is back in the news. The Fiscal Times says The Robot Reality: Service Jobs Are Next to Go (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100592545).
If you meet Baxter, the latest humanoid robot from Rethink Robotics – you should get comfortable with him, because you'll likely be seeing more of him soon.

Rethink Robotics released Baxter last fall and received an overwhelming response from the manufacturing industry, selling out of their production capacity through April. He's cheap to buy ($22,000), easy to train, and can safely work side-by-side with humans. He's just what factories need to make their assembly lines more efficient – and yes, to replace costly human workers.

But manufacturing is only the beginning.

This April, Rethink will launch a software platform that will allow Baxter to do a more complex sequencing of tasks – for example, picking up a part, holding it in front of an inspection station and receiving a signal to place it in a "good" or "not good" pile. The company is also releasing a software development kit soon that will allow third parties – like university robotics researchers – to create applications for Baxter.

These third parties "are going to do all sorts of stuff we haven't envisioned," says Scott Eckert, CEO of Rethink Robotics. He envisions something similar to Apple's app store happening for Baxter. A spiffed-up version of the robot could soon be seen flipping burgers at McDonalds, folding t-shirts at Gap, or pouring coffee at Starbucks.

What's worrisome to Martin Ford [robotics expert and author of The Lights In the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future] is that these jobs have been offering a huge safety net to the middle class.

They're jobs he calls "the jobs of last resort." When someone can't find a salaried job, they look for lower-paying service jobs to get by – and because the jobs typically have a high turnover rate, they're more likely to be available. Think of all the college graduates who take jobs as cashiers or baristas before they find salaried work. If those jobs were to vanish, those workers would be forced to file for unemployment instead."
Jobs of Last Resort

The Fed and the Obama administration are both clueless as to why this is happening and what to do about it.

Obama wants to raise minimum wages. He also sponsored Obamacare that is going to cost businesses plenty. Those moves encourage automation.

On its part, the Fed has driven interest rates to zero. When money is that cheap, all kinds of capital expenditures that would not otherwise be affordable, quickly become affordable.

Technology is actually a good thing. Few see it that way because the Fed has destroyed the value of the dollar and Obama is hell bent on giving businesses a reason to outsource jobs to robots as fast as they can.

To be fair, much of this is natural workforce evolution. However, the Fed and the Obama administration goosed the trend at the worst possible time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read more at [/URL][URL]http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#3z1ZSAIFmcqDfy5E.99 (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#3z1ZSAIFmcqDfy5E.99)


Obama or no Obama, technology moves on. How does this affect the current economic paradigm? What it promises is millions of unemployed people. What happens to market capitalism?

[Mainecoons]

Keep in mind, particularly for the lower middle class jobs, the government burden on hiring and employees can make the difference between using a robot or using a person.

[Dr. Who]

Keep in mind, particularly for the lower middle class jobs, the government burden on hiring and employees can make the difference between using a robot or using a person.
MC at $22K per robot a business can cover the cost in less than two years as compared to employing a person, unless you are talking about paying less than $5K per annum, which I am choosing as a five year life expectancy of a robot. It may be longer.... There will be no people willing to work for next to nothing unless the US turns into a third world country.

[jrm30655]

In the movie "Hunt for Red October" the Russian attack sub takes the safties off the torpedo and fires it. Then it comes back at him. Just before it hits, his second in command says "You arrogant ass, you have killed us"

Maybe we are doing the same thing. What happens when we automate everything and no one has a job to buy anything? Everytime we automate a job out of existance, we kill a consumer.

I live in a little town in central MX. At one point, I lived in the town (I now live a mile or so out of town). When I lived in town, I could get 95% of everything I wanted within 3 blocks. Doctors, dentists, grocery stores, meat markets, clothes, booze, restaurants everything. If I couldn't find it, I could walk to the end of the block and hop a bus to Guadalajara and find anything there.

There is a place on the corner that sells womens clothes during the week, roasted chicken on Saturday afternoon and burgers and hot dogs on weekend nights. This place would drive a zoning official stark raving crazy but it works just great. It is the most efficient place I've ever seen.

Most of the shops are downstairs on street level with a family that runs the place living above. Try that in the US....

When I lived in ABQ, there was a leak in the street in front of my house, so I called the water department. Eventually 5 guys in 2 big trucks showed up. They jackhammered the asphalt out and took a backhoe and loaded it in the truck. Another truck showed up and they dug the dirt out. The hole was at least 10X15'. That took all afternoon. Then they put up a bunch of cones and tape and left. Next day, they worked in the hole most of the day doing something. The third day, they came back with a truck of dirt and filled the hole in and tamped it down with a machine. It stayed like that with the cones for 3 days, then a truck with hot asphalt showed up with about 4 guys and one of those huge roller machines. They spread out the asphalt, rolled it and left. The leak was back in 3 days. They probably used $750,000 worth of equipment on that job and spent 80 manhours to fix it.

There was a leak in the street down here. A guy with a little boy showed up with a bucket, a pick and a shovel. The guy pried the cobblestones out of the street and stacked them on the curb. Then he took the shovel and dug out the earth and piled it on the curb. He dug down probably 3' and the hole was probably 3' in diameter. He put the pick in the bucket with the head up like a cross, set the bucket in front of the hole so no one would drive into the hole and was gone for 20 minutes. Probably went to the hardware store up the street. He came back, worked in the hole a few minutes, shoveled the dirt back in the hole, put the cobblestones back in place and left. Total time, about 2 hours. Total equipment used, maybe $100.

I watched all that and realized that the US is not going to have the money for equipment and manpower to fix water leaks. However, down here it is easy to find a guy with a pick, a shovel and a bucket. Little boy to help is optional.

[Dr. Who]

In the movie "Hunt for Red October" the Russian attack sub takes the safties off the torpedo and fires it. Then it comes back at him. Just before it hits, his second in command says "You arrogant ass, you have killed us"

Maybe we are doing the same thing. What happens when we automate everything and no one has a job to buy anything? Everytime we automate a job out of existance, we kill a consumer.

I live in a little town in central MX. At one point, I lived in the town (I now live a mile or so out of town). When I lived in town, I could get 95% of everything I wanted within 3 blocks. Doctors, dentists, grocery stores, meat markets, clothes, booze, restaurants everything. If I couldn't find it, I could walk to the end of the block and hop a bus to Guadalajara and find anything there.

There is a place on the corner that sells womens clothes during the week, roasted chicken on Saturday afternoon and burgers and hot dogs on weekend nights. This place would drive a zoning official stark raving crazy but it works just great. It is the most efficient place I've ever seen.

Most of the shops are downstairs on street level with a family that runs the place living above. Try that in the US....

When I lived in ABQ, there was a leak in the street in front of my house, so I called the water department. Eventually 5 guys in 2 big trucks showed up. They jackhammered the asphalt out and took a backhoe and loaded it in the truck. Another truck showed up and they dug the dirt out. The hole was at least 10X15'. That took all afternoon. Then they put up a bunch of cones and tape and left. Next day, they worked in the hole most of the day doing something. The third day, they came back with a truck of dirt and filled the hole in and tamped it down with a machine. It stayed like that with the cones for 3 days, then a truck with hot asphalt showed up with about 4 guys and one of those huge roller machines. They spread out the asphalt, rolled it and left. The leak was back in 3 days. They probably used $750,000 worth of equipment on that job and spent 80 manhours to fix it.

There was a leak in the street down here. A guy with a little boy showed up with a bucket, a pick and a shovel. The guy pried the cobblestones out of the street and stacked them on the curb. Then he took the shovel and dug out the earth and piled it on the curb. He dug down probably 3' and the hole was probably 3' in diameter. He put the pick in the bucket with the head up like a cross, set the bucket in front of the hole so no one would drive into the hole and was gone for 20 minutes. Probably went to the hardware store up the street. He came back, worked in the hole a few minutes, shoveled the dirt back in the hole, put the cobblestones back in place and left. Total time, about 2 hours. Total equipment used, maybe $100.

I watched all that and realized that the US is not going to have the money for equipment and manpower to fix water leaks. However, down here it is easy to find a guy with a pick, a shovel and a bucket. Little boy to help is optional.

Whether public works are inhouse or subcontracted out, there would appear to be waste.

As to the move toward automation, smaller business would seem to have more connection with its employees. Big business has a connection with shareholders and the bottom line. So in the case of large employers, there will be the biggest movement toward automation. Is this an inevitability, given advances in technology or is it corporate ambivalance toward humanity?