Chris
04-21-2013, 05:14 PM
This is a parody of a Congressional hearing done to give some insight into statistical Bayesian probabilities.
...Congressman Chairman: Muslims! Terrorists! Muslims! Terrorists!
Witness: Let A be the event of terrorism, and B be the event of Muslimism. Then P(A|B)≠P(B|A)
Congressman: What are you talking about?
Witness: You seem to be confusing the probability that a Muslim person will be a terrorist with the probability that a terrorist person will be a Muslim
Congressman: And you seem to be confusing everyone in this hearing, smartass.
Witness:
http://i.snag.gy/qDlCX.jpg
Congressman: What did you just call me?
Witness: it’s simple, the probability that a Muslim will be a terrorist will be 13,000 times lower than the probability that a terrorist will be a Muslim. That is, the ratio of the probability of being a terrorist to the probability of being a Muslim is about 1 over 13,000 (P(A)/P(B)).
Congressman: so even the math department has been taken over by politically correct academic radicals who hate America?
Witness: even if you think that the Probability of a Terrorist being a Muslim is 95.3%, the probability of a Muslim being a Terrorist is only 0.0007%. That is less than the probability of a left-handed octogenarian Olympic discus-thrower being struck by lightning.
Congressman: or maybe even less than the probability that anyone is listening to you?
Witness: maybe this picture will help.
http://i.snag.gy/sbgCf.jpg
Congressman: I’m calling your state legislature right now to fire your radical butt....
@ Congressional Muslim Terrorism Hearings: the Mathematical Witness Transcript (http://www.goodreads.com/author_blog_posts/1037703-congressional-muslim-terrorism-hearings-the-mathematical-witness-transc)
...Congressman Chairman: Muslims! Terrorists! Muslims! Terrorists!
Witness: Let A be the event of terrorism, and B be the event of Muslimism. Then P(A|B)≠P(B|A)
Congressman: What are you talking about?
Witness: You seem to be confusing the probability that a Muslim person will be a terrorist with the probability that a terrorist person will be a Muslim
Congressman: And you seem to be confusing everyone in this hearing, smartass.
Witness:
http://i.snag.gy/qDlCX.jpg
Congressman: What did you just call me?
Witness: it’s simple, the probability that a Muslim will be a terrorist will be 13,000 times lower than the probability that a terrorist will be a Muslim. That is, the ratio of the probability of being a terrorist to the probability of being a Muslim is about 1 over 13,000 (P(A)/P(B)).
Congressman: so even the math department has been taken over by politically correct academic radicals who hate America?
Witness: even if you think that the Probability of a Terrorist being a Muslim is 95.3%, the probability of a Muslim being a Terrorist is only 0.0007%. That is less than the probability of a left-handed octogenarian Olympic discus-thrower being struck by lightning.
Congressman: or maybe even less than the probability that anyone is listening to you?
Witness: maybe this picture will help.
http://i.snag.gy/sbgCf.jpg
Congressman: I’m calling your state legislature right now to fire your radical butt....
@ Congressional Muslim Terrorism Hearings: the Mathematical Witness Transcript (http://www.goodreads.com/author_blog_posts/1037703-congressional-muslim-terrorism-hearings-the-mathematical-witness-transc)