who says fiscal policy is hurting the economy?

[truthmatters]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/who-says-fiscal-policy-is-hurting-the-economy-almost-everyone-20130509



Who Says Fiscal Policy Is Hurting the Economy? (Almost) Everyone.Austerity is dragging down growth, many economists say.

[truthmatters]

your historically failed ideas are not well though of by the experts

[Chris]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/who-says-fiscal-policy-is-hurting-the-economy-almost-everyone-20130509



Who Says Fiscal Policy Is Hurting the Economy? (Almost) Everyone.Austerity is dragging down growth, many economists say.

What austerity?

[truthmatters]

man you really dont like facts huh

[truthmatters]

I trust the economists way more than I trust your expertice or judgement

[Chris]

man you really dont like facts huh

Present some facts. Where has austerity been implemented?

[patrickt]

A thread with five posts and four are from the blathering OP.

[Cigar]

http://www.bartcop.com/food-vs-jets_n.jpg

[Chris]

http://www.bartcop.com/food-vs-jets_n.jpg

The sequester is not about austerity, it's about a miniscule reduction in the rate of increase of spending over the next decade.

[patrickt]

Cigar, idiotic propaganda doesn't equate to facts. If the families did lose, which they shouldn't have, the good news would be that the Obama family still have 9 luxury vacations to go in this era of austerity. I will admit that President Obama did order the federal government to make the minor cuts as painful as possible to teach those nasty Americans a lesson. So, we keep fantastic parties in the White House for the King and his court but we cancel tours for school kids.

That's your President in action, Cigar, and he doesn't even invite you to the parties.

[truthmatters]

why are you pretending all these economist are wrong?

[Chris]

why are you pretending all these economist are wrong?

Again, show us the data.

[truthmatters]

there is mountains of data.

go read the post

[truthmatters]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/who-says-fiscal-policy-is-hurting-the-economy-almost-everyone-20130509




Government spending should not be cut, at least not while the economy is still trying to recover, they argue. Here’s what 10 economists or groups of economists have recently said:
"Fiscal tightening will take 1.8 percentage points off of growth this year compared to 1 percent in each of the past two years.”—Reuters report (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-04-11/news/38463086_1_job-cuts-first-quarter-growth-economy) on an estimate from Michael Gapen, senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, April 11.
"Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said fiscal policy should shave 1.5 percentage points from gross domestic product growth in 2013. The fiscal contraction coming this year will be the biggest pinch since the government drew down forces at the end of World War II, he added.”—The Hill (http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/298103-sequester-expected-to-hit-job-market-over-summer), May 8.
"The budget sequester, which went into effect March 1, is projected to subtract about 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth in 2013 if maintained until the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 30, 2013) as assumed by the IMF staff. If the sequester continues into the next fiscal year, it could shave another 0.2 percentage point from GDP growth in 2013.”—International Monetary Fund, April World Economic Outlook report (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf).
"Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth.”—Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130501a.htm), May 1.
“The minutes of the meeting by the Federal Advisory Council [private-sector advisers to the central bank] trace how the 12 bankers’ views evolved from opposition to the Fed’s announcement of new bond buying in September to support for Fed efforts in February to boost an economic expansion beset by a ‘drag’ from fiscal tightening.”—Bloomberg report (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-07/fed-advisory-panel-warned-of-rising-credit-risk-to-banks.html), May 8.
A less-than-expected budget deficit—the debt the government owes so far this year—means less pressure for further austerity policies, but that doesn’t mean there won’t still be a drag this year. “In our view, the most important implication from the reduction in the budget deficit for the near-term economic outlook is reduced pressure for further fiscal retrenchment. Partly for this reason, we expect the drag from fiscal policy on real GDP growth to decline sharply from around 2 percent of GDP in 2013 to around 0.5 percent in coming years.”—Goldman Sachs economists, April 10.
"All things considered, still tight lending standards explain why the U.S. economic recovery was so lackluster in the first few years after the recession ended, but increasingly it is contractionary fiscal policy and the weakness of global demand that explains why U.S. growth is still below par.”—Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, May 6.
"The slowing pace of global growth, and contractionary U.S. fiscal policy are the key risks to growth.”—Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, May 2.
"Fiscal tightening is hurting."—Ian Shepherdson (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323528404578452602437259228.html), chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors, April.
"The slowing pace of global growth, and contractionary U.S. fiscal policy are the key risks to growth.”—Nomura, May 3.

[Chris]

No, existing austerity, not projected or mistaken austerity. Show us austerity in data.

[truthmatters]

all thoise economists disagree with you.

me too

[Chris]

Where's the data?


Here are the key words you overlook in post 14: "...will...should...is projected to..." It's all conjecture. You can't draw conclusions on conjecture. You need data. Where is it?



Hint, it does not exist.

[truthmatters]

post 14

[Chris]

No data, matters, just projections.

[truthmatters]

there is data there why are you lying about it?

[truthmatters]

three links to studies right there

[Chris]

there is data there why are you lying about it?

Then why can you show it?

[Chris]

three links to studies right there

What data do they use that shows any austerity?

[KC]

Increased spending is not the only expansionary policy, and there is no evidence that it boosts long term employment. Economists look at snapshots when they look at employment data and GDP, but all of that fails to take into account the number of people dropping out of the labor force.

[Chris]

Increased spending--why then there is no austerity. If spending is going up, then quite simply it is not going down. Unless you subscribe to Orwellian doubespeak.

[KC]

Increased spending--why then there is no austerity. If spending is going up, then quite simply it is not going down. Unless you subscribe to Orwellian doubespeak.

The essential question remains: if there actually is austerity being implemented, does the benefit the economy or does it hurt it? I think austerity in the form of spending cuts but balanced by tax decreases is the ideal during a recession, but feel free to disagree with me. I don't think the the government should take espansionary measures, but it should also avoid contractionary measures when the economy is weak.

Btw I'm not saying policymakers are implementing austerity. I'm more interested in what would happen if they did.

[Chris]

The essential question remains: if there actually is austerity being implemented, does the benefit the economy or does it hurt it? I think austerity in the form of spending cuts but balanced by tax decreases is the ideal during a recession, but feel free to disagree with me. I don't think the the government should take espansionary measures, but it should also avoid contractionary measures when the economy is weak.

Btw I'm not saying policymakers are implementing austerity. I'm more interested in what would happen if they did.

That's what matter's links do, ask what if and speculate.

We could turn to the immediate aftermath of WWII. The economy had done well on a war time footing with government pumping tons of money into the war effort. Once the peace was won though, especially with all the men returning to find jobs taken by women, and the war time factories needing conversion back to peace time, the economy slumped into a recession. FDR's fellow travelers want to just keep the country on a war time footing. Congress said no, implemented austerity, among other things, and the economy recovered quickly.

So we do have that austerity data and the historical facts of its results.

[KC]

That's what matter's links do, ask what if and speculate.

We could turn to the immediate aftermath of WWII. The economy had done well on a war time footing with government pumping tons of money into the war effort. Once the peace was won though, especially with all the men returning to find jobs taken by women, and the war time factories needing conversion back to peace time, the economy slumped into a recession. FDR's fellow travelers want to just keep the country on a war time footing. Congress said no, implemented austerity, among other things, and the economy recovered quickly.

So we do have that austerity data and the historical facts of its results.


I don't think that you can look at a single case study and determine whether austerity benefits or hurts the economy. Ceterus Paribus is great for academic exercises but in the real world very little is ever constant.

[Chris]

I don't think that you can look at a single case study and determine whether austerity benefits or hurts the economy. Ceterus Paribus is great for academic exercises but in the real world very little is ever constant.

Just giving an example where real austerity data exists.