Chris
06-12-2013, 07:58 PM
What to Make of a Warming Plateau (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/science/earth/what-to-make-of-a-climate-change-plateau.html?_r=3&)
The rise in the surface temperature of earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years than in the 20 years before that. And that lull in warming has occurred even as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere at a record pace.
The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists. True, the basic theory that predicts a warming of the planet in response to human emissions does not suggest that warming should be smooth and continuous. To the contrary, in a climate system still dominated by natural variability, there is every reason to think the warming will proceed in fits and starts.
But given how much is riding on the scientific forecast, the practitioners of climate science would like to understand exactly what is going on. They admit that they do not, even though some potential mechanisms of the slowdown have been suggested. The situation highlights important gaps in our knowledge of the climate system, some of which cannot be closed until we get better measurements from high in space and from deep in the ocean.
As you might imagine, those dismissive of climate-change concerns have made much of this warming plateau. They typically argue that “global warming stopped 15 years ago” or some similar statement, and then assert that this disproves the whole notion that greenhouse gases are causing warming....
The title should be questioned: "What to Make of a Warming Plateau". It's not a warming plateau unless you presume global warming.
The rise in the surface temperature of earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years....
No, more accurately temperatures have been virtually flat for the last 15 years.
there is every reason to think the warming will proceed in fits and starts
It still exhibits rises and falls but overall the trend has been virtually flat. The reason 15 is important is climatologists base trends on that span. When it was first pointed out temps were virtually flat for 12 years, climatologist said OK but you need to wait 15 years. The trend is virtually flat. There is no reason to think anything unless you presume global warming.
The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists....the practitioners of climate science would like to understand exactly what is going on. They admit that they do not...
No they do not know. There is no reason to presume global warming.
As you might imagine, those dismissive of climate-change concerns have made much of this warming plateau. They typically argue that “global warming stopped 15 years ago” or some similar statement, and then assert that this disproves the whole notion that greenhouse gases are causing warming....
I am sure there are, just as there are alarmists who presume global warming, deniers who reject it.
Take aways:
1 Despite dramatic rises in CO2, over the last 15 years temperatures have trended virtually flat.
2 Scientists know no more why the trend has flattened than they knew why it was rising like a hockey stick.
The rise in the surface temperature of earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years than in the 20 years before that. And that lull in warming has occurred even as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere at a record pace.
The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists. True, the basic theory that predicts a warming of the planet in response to human emissions does not suggest that warming should be smooth and continuous. To the contrary, in a climate system still dominated by natural variability, there is every reason to think the warming will proceed in fits and starts.
But given how much is riding on the scientific forecast, the practitioners of climate science would like to understand exactly what is going on. They admit that they do not, even though some potential mechanisms of the slowdown have been suggested. The situation highlights important gaps in our knowledge of the climate system, some of which cannot be closed until we get better measurements from high in space and from deep in the ocean.
As you might imagine, those dismissive of climate-change concerns have made much of this warming plateau. They typically argue that “global warming stopped 15 years ago” or some similar statement, and then assert that this disproves the whole notion that greenhouse gases are causing warming....
The title should be questioned: "What to Make of a Warming Plateau". It's not a warming plateau unless you presume global warming.
The rise in the surface temperature of earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years....
No, more accurately temperatures have been virtually flat for the last 15 years.
there is every reason to think the warming will proceed in fits and starts
It still exhibits rises and falls but overall the trend has been virtually flat. The reason 15 is important is climatologists base trends on that span. When it was first pointed out temps were virtually flat for 12 years, climatologist said OK but you need to wait 15 years. The trend is virtually flat. There is no reason to think anything unless you presume global warming.
The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists....the practitioners of climate science would like to understand exactly what is going on. They admit that they do not...
No they do not know. There is no reason to presume global warming.
As you might imagine, those dismissive of climate-change concerns have made much of this warming plateau. They typically argue that “global warming stopped 15 years ago” or some similar statement, and then assert that this disproves the whole notion that greenhouse gases are causing warming....
I am sure there are, just as there are alarmists who presume global warming, deniers who reject it.
Take aways:
1 Despite dramatic rises in CO2, over the last 15 years temperatures have trended virtually flat.
2 Scientists know no more why the trend has flattened than they knew why it was rising like a hockey stick.