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AmazonTania
09-12-2013, 06:12 PM
I'm really not trying to find out the inconsistencies regarding the Bureau Labour of Statistics and their jobs data, but they're making it rather easy for me. Last month, I remember posting a major discrepancy (somewhere on Twitter or something) between the CES Survey (Current Employment Statistics) and JOLTS Survey (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey). How major? Well, about a 42% difference between the amount of jobs the economy was suppose to create, and the Net Changes in Employment from the JOLTS Survey.
http://imageshack.us/a/img823/6962/p00q.pnghttp://imageshack.us/a/img534/4843/oqil.png

Even the largest investor in US Securities, Bill Gross, caught on to this discrepancy and tweeted the following:

http://imageshack.us/a/img5/7572/vv3e.png

One thing that struck me as odd during last Friday's job report was last month being revised downward from 162K to 104. Which was just over 100K a month, and still in lock step of the average of 149K Jobs being created a month. Massaging the data will meant that the JOLTS survey would have a large divergence in the upcoming months to make up for the misrepresentation of the NFP Data. Hires in July rose from 4313K to 4419K, while separations dropped from 4228K to 4109K. This amounted in a Net Turnover of 310,000 jobs. Matching the NFP prints with the JOLTS implied job growth and you'll instead the 104K downward revision which resulted last month -- which was the lowest since June 2012.


http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/7421/3flf.png



Even this week, the Shenanigans won't seem to end. The Department of Labour reported a ridiculous 292K in Jobless Claims for this week, 38K below expectations and down from the previous week of 323K. Which seemed rather odd, considering I was looking on my smartphone for these updates. Now I know why I haven't found them.Well, at lease the BLS has admitted this much:


First-time claims (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INJCJC:IND) for unemployment insurance (http://topics.bloomberg.com/unemployment-insurance/) fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended Sept. 7, which also included the Labor Day holiday, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 330,000 applications.The decrease in filings doesn’t signal a change in job-market conditions because most of it was caused by computer-network conversions in the two states, according to a Labor Department spokesman. The pace of job cuts has waned since the end of last year, setting the stage for faster payroll and income growth that would help propel consumer spending (http://topics.bloomberg.com/consumer-spending/).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-12/jobless-claims-slump-as-two-u-s-states-upgrade-computer-systems.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-12/jobless-claims-slump-as-two-u-s-states-upgrade-computer-systems.html)

Should be interesting to see what BLS has in store of us for September Job Statistics. Until then, we will await for the unemployment rate to reach -48% while the BLS upgrades their operating system from Windows 98 to Windows Vista.

AmazonTania
09-12-2013, 11:25 PM
Also on a side note, in the past 8 months we have seen a dramatic imbalance in the algo-headline scanner moving NFP data. On a 3 month trailing basis, this is wider than any point it has ever been in 5 years and as wide as it's ever been since the Lehman Collapse. Meaning, the JOLTS survey is substantially under-representing the net turnovers.


http://imageshack.us/a/img850/2117/q6mg.png

Cigar
09-13-2013, 06:47 AM
The Unemployment Picture: I regularly have this discussion within my inner circle of friends and family.

I always conclude the discussion with these simple questions.



Are the individuals "you" deal with on a day-to-day bases, better off "today" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are these individuals and yourself, more Employment optimistic "now" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are "you" unemployed and are "you" worried about "your" employment status?


Charts and Graphs are nice, but how does that relate to "your" individual reality?

zelmo1234
09-13-2013, 06:53 AM
The Unemployment Picture: I regularly have this discussion within my inner circle of friends and family.

I always conclude the discussion with these simple questions.


Are the individuals "you" deal with on a day-to-day bases, better off "today" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are these individuals and yourself, more Employment optimistic "now" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are "you" unemployed and are "you" worried about "your" employment status?

Charts and Graphs are nice, but how does that relate to "your" individual reality?

So you just hang out with people that are doing OK and then the problem goes away? WOW maybe we should just ship all of the unemployed to a concentration camp so we don't have to look at them, a real shit hole like IL maybe?

The truth of the matter is income is down, the middle class has 40% less of there wealth, and there are millions less on payrolls nation wide

There have been millions that lost there homes?

Can you really say that people are better off today?

Cigar
09-13-2013, 07:06 AM
So you just hang out with people that are doing OK and then the problem goes away? WOW maybe we should just ship all of the unemployed to a concentration camp so we don't have to look at them, a real shit hole like IL maybe?

The truth of the matter is income is down, the middle class has 40% less of there wealth, and there are millions less on payrolls nation wide

There have been millions that lost there homes?

Can you really say that people are better off today?

FACT ...

I'm surrounded by normal everyday acquaintances just like you.

... and the Sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening ... each day just like you.

So if you're so GD concerned about the middle class, why not call the representatives who are hell bent on killing it or STFU.

This country isn't losing 800,000 Jobs in back-to-back-to-back months.

43 Consecutive Months of Job Growth sure as hell beats any month of Job Loses ... in my world.

So Fuck-Yea ... The United States of America is Better Off Today than it was in the last 2 quarters of 2008 and the first 2 quarters of 2009.

That's Data that matters .... so ... Governor ... please continue with your Gloom and Doom Forecast.

BTW ... any idea when that forecast $6.00 per/gallon Gas is going to show up?

jillian
09-13-2013, 07:13 AM
i particularly love how when people love the data, they say it isn't accurate... no matter how good the source.

unskewedpolls anyone? lol

Cigar
09-13-2013, 07:21 AM
i particularly love how when people love the data, they say it isn't accurate... no matter how good the source.

unskewedpolls anyone? lol


They live in a bitter and angry world ... they are still pissed that their Horse Lost the Race ... Twice ... Back-to-Back ... and the future isn't look bright either.

jillian
09-13-2013, 07:22 AM
They live in a bitter and angry world ... they are still pissed that their Horse Lost the Race ... Twice ... Back-to-Back ... and the future isn't look bright either.

getting worse and worse after cruz's comments about jesse helms.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 07:29 AM
getting worse and worse after cruz's comments about jesse helms.

You gotta Love The Republican Parties Re-branding Efforts :grin:

Good Lock :laugh:

Mainecoons
09-13-2013, 07:55 AM
Not for the simple minded Pollyannas here:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.mx/2013/09/where-are-jobs-demographically-speaking.html


n the 16-19 age group, the population has shrunk by 239,000, while the number of jobs in this age group has shrunk by 1,415,000!

In the 20-24 age group, the population has grown by 1,625,000 while the number of jobs has shrunk by 362,000. So, for the under 25 age group we have 1,777,000 less jobs with 1,386,000 more people.

In the 25 to 54 age group that everyone focuses on, we see a loss in population of 1,382,000 people since August of 2007, but an even greater loss in jobs - 5,940,000!

Since we know that the population has grown by over 13,000,000 since 2007 yet we have 1.8 million less jobs since then, what does this tell us?

Jobs were lost in every age bracket but the 55+ group, with 16-19 dropping 22.6%, 20-24 falling 2.6%, 25-54 going down 5.9% and 55+ going up 22.7%.

The second graph shows the Civilian Non-institutional Population by age - note the basic flat lines on all but 55+. The graph shows the Work Force by age - note once again only 55+ goes up.

The fourth graph shows the number employed by age group. Note that it's only the 55+ age group that has done anything in the current "Recovery". The other groups are all down from 2007, with 16-19 devastated. Just go in Walmart and McDonald's and you will see it first hand - senior citizen workers abound.

The fifth graph shows the percentage of an age group that is also in the work force. Note the plunges in every age group except 55+.

The last graph shows the percentage of the age group employed. It follows the exact trend of the fifth, as it must.

So, if you are in sales and marketing you should be focusing your products on the 55+ age group, they are the ones earning the cash. Forget the teenagers, they are contributing little, and their parents are sliding fast! The millennials aged 20-24 hope those 55+ will retire but the trends do not look promising.

As typical with my charts, data is not adjusted for seasonality. Instead, I compare the same month every year to prior years.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0o-5J8Ev5gA/UjKniB3z4qI/AAAAAAAAXQI/ZwlOJnmGsgk/s400/Wallace+2013-09-13+Population+vs.+Jobs5.png

Of course, Cigar talking to his buddies is much more rigorous and statistically reliable than these data.

:rofl:

Cigar
09-13-2013, 08:04 AM
Of course, Cigar talking to his buddies is much more rigorous and statistically reliable than these data.

:rofl:



No ... it's my Quarterly Profits that's statistically more reliable than your data. BTW ... Look for me in the BMW Hospitality Tent today and tomorrow at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest; you'll see all the Chicago area thugs drinking Beer and shooting white people.

Come on down .. I have extra tickets. :grin:

Mainecoons
09-13-2013, 08:27 AM
Right. Cigar and his "equal opportunity" business are representative of the entire country.

Like I said, the simplistic Pollyannas just don't have the brain power to understand these data and what they infer going forward.

Go play with your golf clubs, genius. While you can.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 08:37 AM
Right. Cigar and his "equal opportunity" business are representative of the entire country.

Like I said, the simplistic Pollyannas just don't have the brain power to understand these data and what they infer going forward.

Go play with your golf clubs, genius. While you can.

What evidence do you have that my business is an "equal opportunity" business?

Please provide your data ... we'll wait ... but not too long.

Chris
09-13-2013, 09:02 AM
The Lie Must Go On: BLS "Catches" BLS At Misrepresenting 2013 Job Gains By Over 40% (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-06/bls-catches-bls-misrepresenting-2013-job-gains-over-40)


...This means that either the JOLTS survey is substantially underrepresenting the net turnover of workers, or that once the part-time frenzy in the NFP data normalizes, the monthly job gains will plunge to just over 100K per month to "normalize" for what has been a very peculiar upward "drift" in the NFP "data."

And just like last month we will conclude with the same advice to the BLS: when manipulating data series across dimensions, make sure the manipulations foot across, and not just in 1 dimension.

As always, we urge readers to recreate the above results on their own: the Hires timeseries can be found here, the Separations timeseries is here, while the matching reported Nonfarm Payroll series is, as always, here.

Chris
09-13-2013, 09:03 AM
Not the first time: Lies, Damn Lies and Unemployment Numbers (http://angelialevy.com/2011/08/06/lies-damn-lies-and-unemployment-numbers/).

Chris
09-13-2013, 09:04 AM
The Unemployment Picture: I regularly have this discussion within my inner circle of friends and family.

I always conclude the discussion with these simple questions.



Are the individuals "you" deal with on a day-to-day bases, better off "today" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are these individuals and yourself, more Employment optimistic "now" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are "you" unemployed and are "you" worried about "your" employment status?


Charts and Graphs are nice, but how does that relate to "your" individual reality?



The economy is a social order, not an individual one.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 09:04 AM
Got a Problem with the Unemployment Numbers .. Call a Job Creator and ask them to get to hiring. :grin:

Chris
09-13-2013, 09:11 AM
Got a Problem with the Unemployment Numbers .. Call a Job Creator and ask them to get to hiring. :grin:



Must everything you post be so frivolous?

Mainecoons
09-13-2013, 09:15 AM
What else can he do? He obviously doesn't understand the data and he obviously is so narcissistic that he views everything from looking in the mirror. There's really nothing left for him to do but punt with some stupid comment.

So he does.

ptif219
09-13-2013, 09:36 AM
FACT ...

I'm surrounded by normal everyday acquaintances just like you.

... and the Sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening ... each day just like you.

So if you're so GD concerned about the middle class, why not call the representatives who are hell bent on killing it or STFU.

This country isn't losing 800,000 Jobs in back-to-back-to-back months.

43 Consecutive Months of Job Growth sure as hell beats any month of Job Loses ... in my world.

So Fuck-Yea ... The United States of America is Better Off Today than it was in the last 2 quarters of 2008 and the first 2 quarters of 2009.

That's Data that matters .... so ... Governor ... please continue with your Gloom and Doom Forecast.

BTW ... any idea when that forecast $6.00 per/gallon Gas is going to show up?

That is total BS

nic34
09-13-2013, 09:37 AM
That is total BS

Cite?

ptif219
09-13-2013, 09:38 AM
They live in a bitter and angry world ... they are still pissed that their Horse Lost the Race ... Twice ... Back-to-Back ... and the future isn't look bright either.

No they pissed we have the longest sustained high unemployment and the slowest economic recovery from our incompetent President

ptif219
09-13-2013, 09:40 AM
Got a Problem with the Unemployment Numbers .. Call a Job Creator and ask them to get to hiring. :grin:

Won't happen with Obamacare coming

ptif219
09-13-2013, 09:41 AM
Cite?

It is cigar it is obvious

Cigar
09-13-2013, 09:46 AM
Won't happen with Obamacare coming

Why ... are you out of Work?

ptif219
09-13-2013, 10:23 AM
Why ... are you out of Work?

I am not out of work. I am a truck driver that is a industry that is always needed

Here is what Obama gave us

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/90473000-record-number-not-labor-force-almost-10m-under-obama

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 10:32 AM
The Unemployment Picture: I regularly have this discussion within my inner circle of friends and family.

I always conclude the discussion with these simple questions.



Are the individuals "you" deal with on a day-to-day bases, better off "today" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are these individuals and yourself, more Employment optimistic "now" than they were between August 2008 and August 2009?
Are "you" unemployed and are "you" worried about "your" employment status?


Charts and Graphs are nice, but how does that relate to "your" individual reality?

The purpose of the data isn't to show how this relates to my reality, but to show the divergence between two difference sets of data between CES and JOLTS. As the two surveys had a relatively small divergence until recently in 2013, which means the following:

1)The unemployment situation is actually worse than described.
2)The jobs data is being massaged for political reasons.

As for how this related to my reality, I lost my job in 2008 when I was an investment banker, and found another as a Stock Broker in 2010. And all I had to do was leave the country to find work. I still made less money, but I still worked to get it back. Unfortunately, not everyone is so lucky. Unless you're pursuing careers in medical, retail, financial services and hospitality, if you lost your job, its gone forever.

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 10:34 AM
i particularly love how when people love the data, they say it isn't accurate... no matter how good the source.

unskewedpolls anyone? lol

I'm using BLS own statistics to show the errors. If you don't like it, take it up with them. Unless you'd like to explain where there is an all time high in divergence between the CES survey and JOLTS survey.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 10:49 AM
The purpose of the data isn't to show how this relates to my reality, but to show the divergence between two difference sets of data between CES and JOLTS. As the two surveys had a relatively small divergence until recently in 2013, which means the following:

1)The unemployment situation is actually worse than described.
2)The jobs data is being massaged for political reasons.

As for how this related to my reality, I lost my job in 2008 when I was an investment banker, and found another as a Stock Broker in 2010. And all I had to do was leave the country to find work. I still made less money, but I still worked to get it back. Unfortunately, not everyone is so lucky. Unless you're pursuing careers in medical, retail, financial services and hospitality, if you lost your job, its gone forever.

Simple Question:

Is the United States of American in a batter space in time, relative to the last Economic Crash.

Yes or No ... ?

FACT: Each and every month, a Jobs report is issued.
FACT: each and every month, a previous Jobs report is revised.

This didn't start happening January 20th 2009, it's been a National Process for Decades.


Agreed ... people need to rethink their employ-ability and education needs.

Example: I have several friends who were in the construction business. They are having so much success in residential remodeling, they can't take more than 5 days off for a Vacation. If this country just tried reinvesting qualified tradesmen/women, in just the construction industry alone, we'd easily be at 6% Unemployment Numbers. I have 2 individuals working for me who were College Teachers before. I reinvested their talent for Program, Project Management andTechnical Writers, into value-add positions for me.

All it takes in effort ... something the GOP will avoid at all cost because it would look like a Win for Obama. Unfortunately, the cost is all in the Middle Class and not for the Rich Politicians. I'm certain after the Obama's Presidency, many of the Obama suggestions will miraculously become Conservative ideas again.

nic34
09-13-2013, 10:52 AM
I'm certin after the Obama's Presidency, many of the Obama suggestions with miraculously become Conservative ideas again.

I think you nailed it. :cool2:

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:01 AM
I think you nailed it. :cool2:

Problem is Obama has followed many Bush policies

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:01 AM
Simple Question:

Is the United States of American in a batter space in time, relative to the last Economic Crash.

Yes or No ... ?

FACT: Each and every month, a Jobs report is issued.
FACT: each and every month, a previous Jobs report is revised.

This didn't start happening January 20th 2009, it's been a National Process for Decades.


Agreed ... people need to rethink their employ-ability and education needs.

Example: I have several friends who were in the construction business. They are having so much success in residential remodeling, they can't take more than 5 days off for a Vacation. If this country just tried reinvesting qualified tradesmen/women, in just the construction industry alone, we'd easily be at 6% Unemployment Numbers. I have 2 individuals working for me who were College Teachers before. I reinvested their talent for Program, Project Management andTechnical Writers, into value-add positions for me.

All it takes in effort ... something the GOP will avoid at all cost because it would look like a Win for Obama. Unfortunately, the cost is all in the Middle Class and not for the Rich Politicians. I'm certain after the Obama's Presidency, many of the Obama suggestions will miraculously become Conservative ideas again.

I have lost money under Obama

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:02 AM
Problem is Obama has followed many Bush policies

... and far more policies that where not Bush's ... but who's counting all the No's? :wink:

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:04 AM
... and far more policies that where not Bush's ... but who's counting all the No's? :wink:

Policies that failed and are decreasing our quality of life

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:05 AM
I have lost money under Obama

I lost money during the crash also.

But instead of blaming a President, I made adjustments ... and every penny that was lost has been made back and way more.

Should I give Obama credit?

Hell no ... I give "ME" Credit. :grin:

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:09 AM
Policies that failed and are decreasing our quality of life

... if your quality of life is decreasing

... perhaps you should log-off the internet and change your priorities and time management techniques.

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:10 AM
I lost money during the crash also.

But instead of blaming a President, I made adjustments ... and every penny that was lost has been made back and way more.

Should I give Obama credit?

Hell no ... I give "ME" Credit. :grin:

the loss continues. Obama has done nothing to stop it

http://www.thetruckersreport.com/driver-pay-dropped-by-9-35-in-2012/?utm_source=The+TruckersReport+Weekly+Newsletter+R ecipients&utm_campaign=eccc6adf7e-Weekly_Newsletter_Test_Campaign1_25_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_de09ecb18a-eccc6adf7e-38475049


According to a report published by the American Trucking Research Institute (ATRI), average driver pay dropped from $0.460 per mile in 2011 to $0.417 in 2012. That’s a drop of 9.35%.

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:11 AM
... if your quality of life is decreasing

... perhaps you should log-off the internet and change your priorities and time management techniques.

That will not change the economy or lack of jobs

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:14 AM
That will not change the economy or lack of jobs

Bull-Shit ... it a sure thing that if you're not looking for work, work won't find you.

There's an ALDI near me that's had a Help Wanted sign out for a month.

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 11:15 AM
FACT ...

I'm surrounded by normal everyday acquaintances just like you.

... and the Sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening ... each day just like you.

So if you're so GD concerned about the middle class, why not call the representatives who are hell bent on killing it or STFU.

This country isn't losing 800,000 Jobs in back-to-back-to-back months.

43 Consecutive Months of Job Growth sure as hell beats any month of Job Loses ... in my world.

So Fuck-Yea ... The United States of America is Better Off Today than it was in the last 2 quarters of 2008 and the first 2 quarters of 2009.

That's Data that matters .... so ... Governor ... please continue with your Gloom and Doom Forecast.

BTW ... any idea when that forecast $6.00 per/gallon Gas is going to show up?

Its actually not possible for any economy to continuously lose 800K jobs a month or any amount of jobs for that matter. Not only is it an economic fallacy, but its a statistical impossibility.

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 11:28 AM
Simple Question:Is the United States of American in a batter space in time, relative to the last Economic Crash.Yes or No ... ?No. The data shows evidence that the economy is still contracting. Not in terms of Gross Domestic Product, but in terms of overall living standards.
FACT: Each and every month, a Jobs report is issued.FACT: each and every month, a previous Jobs report is revised.This didn't start happening January 20th 2009, it's been a National Process for Decades.Almost every month since the recovery (mostly in 2012 and 2013) has had downward revisions. Again, the revisions are not the issue. The issue are the misrepresentation of the data. Last months revision showed the largest gap between the CES survey and JOLTS survey the economy has very seen.
Agreed ... people need to rethink their employ-ability and education needs.Example: I have several friends who were in the construction business. They are having so much success in residential remodeling, they can't take more than 5 days off for a Vacation. If this country just tried reinvesting qualified tradesmen/women, in just the construction industry alone, we'd easily be at 6% Unemployment Numbers. I have 2 individuals working for me who were College Teachers before. I reinvested their talent for Program, Project Management andTechnical Writers, into value-add positions for me.All it takes in effort ... something the GOP will avoid at all cost because it would look like a Win for Obama. Unfortunately, the cost is all in the Middle Class and not for the Rich Politicians. I'm certain after the Obama's Presidency, many of the Obama suggestions will miraculously become Conservative ideas again.Or maybe it'll be a playbook of what not to do, which I doubt because everyone is so content in repeating the mistakes of the past b

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:33 AM
Its actually not possible for any economy to continuously lose 800K jobs a month or any amount of jobs for that matter. Not only is it an economic fallacy, but its a statistical impossibility.

So ... why is the right always Cheer-leading for the perpetual End-Of-Days, month after month after month ... when you just statistically indicated we bottomed out long time ago. So basically we have an Economy that has 100k t0 200k monthly Job increases, even after all the GOP's efforts to sabotage the Economy. Don't look now, but I think you just confirmed a long standing argument on justifying investments in the future. Isn't that what you do every day all day?

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:39 AM
No. The data shows evidence that the economy is still contracting. Not in terms of Gross Domestic Product, but in terms of overall living standards. Almost every month since the recovery (mostly in 2012 and 2013) has had downward revisions. Again, the revisions are not the issue. The issue are the misrepresentation of the data. Last months revision showed the largest gap between the CES survey and JOLTS survey the economy has very seen. Or maybe it'll be a playbook of what not to do, which I doubt because everyone is so content in repeating the mistakes of the past b

There's a HUGE difference between a Contraction and a Crash :wink:

In a Contraction, belts are tightened.
In a Crash, Organizations Close Doors.

... everyone one of my clients are having record profits.

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:39 AM
Bull-Shit ... it a sure thing that if you're not looking for work, work won't find you.

There's an ALDI near me that's had a Help Wanted sign out for a month.


There again it would not pay enough so my quality of life would decrease. I showed how truckers wages have decreased by over 9% since 2011. That is Obama's economy not Bush

ptif219
09-13-2013, 11:42 AM
There's a HUGE difference between a Contraction and a Crash :wink:

In a Contraction, belts are tightened.
In a Crash, Organizations Close Doors.

... everyone one of my clients are having record profits.

That means the economy is not getting better. If we had a competent president the economy and jobs would improve. Unemployment going down because of people that have stopped looking shows the situation is not improving

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 11:54 AM
So ... why is the right always Cheer-leading for the perpetual End-Of-Days, month after month after month ... when you just statistically indicated we bottomed out long time ago. So basically we have an Economy that has 100k t0 200k monthly Job increases, even after all the GOP's efforts to sabotage the Economy. Don't look now, but I think you just confirmed a long standing argument on justifying investments in the future. Isn't that what you do every day all day?

Recessions follow a pattern known as a 'peak' and a 'trough.' Unemployment follows the same pattern. The economy will begin to loss jobs, followed by a peak in the net job losses, resulting in less jobs being lost until job creation sustains. You cannot keep losing jobs at the same rate, as eventually you reach the entire labour force.

And I don't know what 'end-of-days' situation you're referring to in regards to the right, but that's not necessarily in relation to the jobs situation. There will always be jobs being created. What is the problem with the jobs being created is that they're not enough to keep up with population growth, they're part time, and they're the wrong type of jobs. You're never going to grow the economy by protecting the jobs of the bubble economy.

As for investing, majority of my exposure is in foreign markets. Although, you are better investing your money in an American stock exchange than you are keeping your money in a bank, like 12% of my portfolio has US exposure.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 11:55 AM
That means the economy is not getting better. If we had a competent president the economy and jobs would improve. Unemployment going down because of people that have stopped looking shows the situation is not improving

Thanks for confirming what I've always thought ...

Any other President and we wouldn't be seeing this type of Obstruction.

BTW ... what do YOU normally call people who stopped looking for work?

Come-on Mitt ... be honest ... :wink:

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 12:07 PM
There's a HUGE difference between a Contraction and a Crash


In a Contraction, belts are tightened.
In a Crash, Organizations Close Doors.


Not really. A crash is defined as a major decline in a financial market. Significant by at least 20% or more. A crash is just a larger contraction, neither of which are mutually exclusive. What is going in today is something involving subnormal activity for a considerable period of time, without any market indication of heading toward a recovery, or a collapse.


In other words, a depression.



... everyone one of my clients are having record profits.


Everyone is due to artifically low interest rates. Once interest rates rise, businesses (as well as banks) will find it every difficult to keep operating expensive going at their current levels. All the jobs which were created this far will be destroyed.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 12:20 PM
Not really. A crash is defined as a major decline in a financial market. Significant by at least 20% or more. A crash is just a larger contraction, neither of which are mutually exclusive. What is going in today is something involving subnormal activity for a considerable period of time, without any market indication of heading toward a recovery, or a collapse.


In other words, a depression.





Everyone is due to artifically low interest rates. Once interest rates rise, businesses (as well as banks) will find it every difficult to keep operating expensive going at their current levels. All the jobs which were created this far will be destroyed.

I would consider myself as a small business ... and I can assure you, low interest rates has zero to do with any profitability I'm personally seeing. I provide a valuable intellectual unique service to my customers, regardless to what borrowing levels are at. The more service I provide, the more resources I require, the better resources I obtain, I the better value I can provide.

BTW ... I'm in Geo-Mapping hardware / software / firmware ... among other Database Cloud Services.

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 01:25 PM
I would consider myself as a small business ... and I can assure you, low interest rates has zero to do with any profitability I'm personally seeing. I provide a valuable intellectual unique service to my customers, regardless to what borrowing levels are at. The more service I provide, the more resources I require, the better resources I obtain, I the better value I can provide.

BTW ... I'm in Geo-Mapping hardware / software / firmware ... among other Database Cloud Services.

I don't know what you're seeing or how your operating expenses are funded, but most corporations are recovering record profits due to low interest rates, as it makes it cheaper for them to borrow money. Debt to equity ratios are reaching near pre-cession levels and businesses are highly leveraged up. It also works the same of you are a small business. If you need to expand you may seek some form of commercial or industrial lending.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=mni

Cigar
09-13-2013, 01:35 PM
I don't know what you're seeing or how your operating expenses are funded, but most corporations are recovering record profits due to low interest rates, as it makes it cheaper for them to borrow money. Debt to equity ratios are reaching near pre-cession levels and businesses are highly leveraged up. It also works the same of you are a small business. If you need to expand you may seek some form of commercial or industrial lending.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=mni



I don't borrow a single penny ... and I don't write one line of code with out a sighed contract and three months R&D up front and in the bank. I work on 3 year contracts with 1 year mandatory, and thus every full-time employee is assured no less than 6 months of work and every contract employee is assured no less than 3 months work. All contracts are two month staggered and everyone in on vacation from mid December to mid January.

Ransom
09-13-2013, 02:05 PM
Any other President and we wouldn't be seeing this type of Obstruction.


Other Presidents are competent and able, this one isn't.

One day it's "we won we won", the next Cigar whines and cries about obstruction and denying this President from implementing his policies.

You're such a tulip Cigar.

Cigar
09-13-2013, 02:13 PM
Other Presidents are competent and able, this one isn't.

One day it's "we won we won", the next Cigar whines and cries about obstruction and denying this President from implementing his policies.

You're such a tulip Cigar.

But a Winner beats a Loser ... so take the next 3 years like Man.

AmazonTania
09-13-2013, 02:45 PM
I don't borrow a single penny ... and I don't write one line of code with out a sighed contract and three months R&D up front and in the bank. I work on 3 year contracts with 1 year mandatory, and thus every full-time employee is assured no less than 6 months of work and every contract employee is assured no less than 3 months work. All contracts are two month staggered and everyone in on vacation from mid December to mid January.

I think its great that you have a business not reliant on borrowed money, but the blood of this current economy is a function of low interest rates, which is why it can never end. We don't have an economy which can sustain itself without stimulus, but an economy totally dependent upon it. Which is why this jobs data is a big deal, and vindicative of whether or not the Fed decides to taper sooner and what it will mean for the economy if and when it does.

ptif219
09-13-2013, 05:44 PM
Thanks for confirming what I've always thought ...

Any other President and we wouldn't be seeing this type of Obstruction.

BTW ... what do YOU normally call people who stopped looking for work?

Come-on Mitt ... be honest ... :wink:


The obstruction comes from Reid and Obama

ptif219
09-13-2013, 05:46 PM
But a Winner beats a Loser ... so take the next 3 years like Man.


We have a loser that is why trust in government is at an all time low

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/government-trust-poll-96773.html?hp=r4

Chris
09-13-2013, 05:55 PM
I don't borrow a single penny ... and I don't write one line of code with out a sighed contract and three months R&D up front and in the bank. I work on 3 year contracts with 1 year mandatory, and thus every full-time employee is assured no less than 6 months of work and every contract employee is assured no less than 3 months work. All contracts are two month staggered and everyone in on vacation from mid December to mid January.



Waterfall, not agile. But you are working government contracts, as I've understood you, so an engineering approach is expected. Lots of documentation, too, I suppose.

Mainecoons
09-13-2013, 06:16 PM
And he is working government contracts as a minority, hence he does not compete on a level playing field.

If he really had to compete, he sure wouldn't be spending his work days posting on this board.

Unless, of course, the entire thing is a fiction and he's just a DNC shill paid to disrupt conservative message boards.

If the latter, Cigar, I hope your bosses never find out just how inept you are at it.

Ransom
09-14-2013, 06:52 PM
But a Winner beats a Loser ... so take the next 3 years like Man.

I think rebels in Syria are the ones 'taking it' C. Ambassador Stevens and staff in Libya took it. Our standing in this world lost and adrift, there is no definition of America anymore. We've got the Russians taking the lead and dictating to us from our own news media. America is taking it Cigar while you cheer your win with one breath while whining your circus clown is being obstructed from greatness with the next.

Peter1469
09-14-2013, 09:45 PM
I think rebels in Syria are the ones 'taking it' C. Ambassador Stevens and staff in Libya took it. Our standing in this world lost and adrift, there is no definition of America anymore. We've got the Russians taking the lead and dictating to us from our own news media. America is taking it Cigar while you cheer your win with one breath while whining your circus clown is being obstructed from greatness with the next.

We should kill those involved in the Benghazi attack, but we have no vital interests in Syria. Let Sunnis kill Shias.

Mainecoons
09-15-2013, 07:46 AM
I still think Pallin had the best one liner on this:

"Let Allah sort them out."