PDA

View Full Version : A Post-American World?



Mister D
02-08-2012, 01:31 PM
Snip

Long ago we first heard faddish talk of post-Americanism. Supposedly superior models in Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan energized throngs and produced modern arms far more than did a Grapes of Wrath America. Next, the declinists warned us about the ascendant Communist Soviet Union, which overran Eastern Europe and Asia, and whose missiles went up, unlike ours, which crashed on the launch pad. Then followed Japan, Inc., in the 1970s, which was to own American golf courses, while we were to tend them. Then in the late 1990s it was the turn of the utopian European Union, which reminded Americans what a waste was our military budget and how silly was our suspicion of man-made global warming. Currently, the fact that China has a bullet train and we do not is supposed to convince us that half a billion Chinese never having been to a Western-style doctor and the Chinese industrial landscape resembling the area around Lake Erie circa 1920 simply don’t matter.

But is the latest cry-wolf trend one that we should finally heed? Post-Americans certainly have put themselves in a financial jam by borrowing an additional $12 trillion since 2000. If Obama were to be reelected, he would finish his presidency having borrowed more money than all prior presidents put together. We run chronic trade deficits and outsource millions of jobs overseas. Unemployment remains high, economic growth sluggish. Federal oil leases are canceled and pipelines not built. We did not pacify Iraq quickly, and we remain bogged down in Afghanistan.
Still, all of that hardly adds up to a post-American world. Instead, by almost any historical standard of assessing civilizations, the 21st century looks far brighter for America than for its rivals.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/290335/post-american-world-victor-davis-hanson?pg=1

MMC
02-08-2012, 01:59 PM
Do you agree with the assessment?

Mister D
02-08-2012, 02:08 PM
I think a multi-polar world is inevitable but I do agree with him that certain develops, such as China's rise, are exaggerated. I think the paralelles he draws between the China scare and the Japan scare of the 1980s are spot on. The E.U. is in trouble so, yes, I don't think the US is any worse off than any of the other powers and probably better off than all of them.

Conley
02-08-2012, 02:32 PM
Long ago we first heard faddish talk of post-Americanism. Supposedly superior models in Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan energized throngs and produced modern arms far more than did a Grapes of Wrath America. Next, the declinists warned us about the ascendant Communist Soviet Union, which overran Eastern Europe and Asia, and whose missiles went up, unlike ours, which crashed on the launch pad.

I didn't realize Zakaria was still slurping the Obama Kool Aid, probably to be expected though.

The difference between this crisis and others that we've faced is that we met those challenges head on and our leaders addressed them directly. If we had just ignored the USSR and wished for it to go away history would have been very different. These days, our elected officials are doing exactly that - ignoring the debt and hoping it goes away without taking any steps to get it under control. Big difference.

MMC
02-08-2012, 02:34 PM
De Mesquita says the same thing about China. As well as the US to. That in his theory that which he uses mathmatical analysis with the precept that people look to their own self interest.

He did the same with Iran.....here is a link.
http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.htm l

They call him the Next Nostradamus.

Conley
02-08-2012, 02:38 PM
He also predicted Gingrich would win the nomination. :wink:

MMC
02-08-2012, 02:54 PM
He also predicted Gingrich would win the nomination. :wink:


Did he....? I didnt hear that. Last I heard he says Obama repeats.

Conley
02-08-2012, 03:00 PM
Did he....? I didnt hear that. Last I heard he says Obama repeats.

Yep, he said Gingrich would win the GOP nomination but Obama will repeat.

http://arjanshahani.com/2012/01/23/news-flash-bruce-bueno-de-mesquita-says/

MMC
02-08-2012, 03:14 PM
Clearly the man is.....a uhm er well must be on something. :laugh:

RollingWave
02-08-2012, 09:00 PM
It depends on what you think post-americanism means, there's almost certainly going to be a day when American no longer dominates the world to the same degree as it does today, but everything is always relative, simply looking at basic resource and geographics the USA (as long as it remains a single entity) will almost surely be at a huge advantage compare to everyone else.

Well if Gingrich wins the nomination then yeah Obama's pretty sure lock to repeat, Romney I'm not sure, still, it's like 10 month away from election and too many variable is still in play.

Conley
02-08-2012, 09:11 PM
It depends on what you think post-americanism means, there's almost certainly going to be a day when American no longer dominates the world to the same degree as it does today, but everything is always relative, simply looking at basic resource and geographics the USA (as long as it remains a single entity) will almost surely be at a huge advantage compare to everyone else.

Well if Gingrich wins the nomination then yeah Obama's pretty sure lock to repeat, Romney I'm not sure, still, it's like 10 month away from election and too many variable is still in play.

RW, from an outsider's perspective would you say America has lost standing in the world from its height? And if so, at what point would you say it hit its peak?

Don't worry about being diplomatic, feel free to be brutally honest. :grin:

wingrider
02-09-2012, 12:21 AM
IDK guys what with Santorums win yesterday in MINN, Misouri, and Colorado.. Romney may not be such a shoe in after all, Gingrich is done, he can pack it in now, the dark horse will be Paul, but the real race is between Santorum and Romney.

we will see what developes.

RollingWave
02-09-2012, 12:45 AM
RW, from an outsider's perspective would you say America has lost standing in the world from its height? And if so, at what point would you say it hit its peak?

Don't worry about being diplomatic, feel free to be brutally honest. :grin:

No, not really, at least from a longer point of view, it may be slightly down from say... the early 90s, but you have to consider this, before the USSR blew up the USA was basically the enemy of half of world, since then everyone have to deal with the USA, it now has bases in places like Kazakstain and the likes. in terms of military reach it's foot print have only gotten largers since the USSR blewup and not smaller. just take a consideration of this picture of US operations in the world.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/US_military_bases_in_the_world.svg/800px-US_military_bases_in_the_world.svg

Now think about it if your Iran, what would you think of this picture where your ENTIRELY SURRONDED by countries with USA forcse in them? notice how the US essentially have significant operation close to every trouble spot (or potential once)?

Economically speaking, it may be hard to imagine this for some of the younger folks but today's American economy is hardly worse than the earlier half of Reagan era, what today the right-wing seem to view as an golden age, you have to remember that in the 70s and early 80s American economy was actually in terrible shape not much different (and in many ways worse, today inflation is at least relatively in check, where as at that point the US was suffering from massive stagflation) from today. And much of the same criticisim slamed on China today was essentially the exact same once slamed on Japan back then (economically speaking).

Of course, China isn't Japan, and Japan didn't turn out that bad anyway either. (lost decades aside it still have very high GDP per cap and lowish unemployement). But the general point is that IMHO from the bigger picture there's no real change for the US's power right now, but merely what is likely to be a relative low tide instead of a permenant retreat of the sea.

Mister D
02-09-2012, 10:55 AM
No, not really, at least from a longer point of view, it may be slightly down from say... the early 90s, but you have to consider this, before the USSR blew up the USA was basically the enemy of half of world, since then everyone have to deal with the USA, it now has bases in places like Kazakstain and the likes. in terms of military reach it's foot print have only gotten largers since the USSR blewup and not smaller. just take a consideration of this picture of US operations in the world.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/US_military_bases_in_the_world.svg/800px-US_military_bases_in_the_world.svg

Now think about it if your Iran, what would you think of this picture where your ENTIRELY SURRONDED by countries with USA forcse in them? notice how the US essentially have significant operation close to every trouble spot (or potential once)?

Economically speaking, it may be hard to imagine this for some of the younger folks but today's American economy is hardly worse than the earlier half of Reagan era, what today the right-wing seem to view as an golden age, you have to remember that in the 70s and early 80s American economy was actually in terrible shape not much different (and in many ways worse, today inflation is at least relatively in check, where as at that point the US was suffering from massive stagflation) from today. And much of the same criticisim slamed on China today was essentially the exact same once slamed on Japan back then (economically speaking).

Of course, China isn't Japan, and Japan didn't turn out that bad anyway either. (lost decades aside it still have very high GDP per cap and lowish unemployement). But the general point is that IMHO from the bigger picture there's no real change for the US's power right now, but merely what is likely to be a relative low tide instead of a permenant retreat of the sea.

I agree with your assessment for the most part. You make some of the same points Hanson makes in the article. Much of this "post America" sentiment is simply the rehashed anxiety of the (recent) past. China is but the latest manifestation of the Yellow Peril, for example.