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Conley
03-06-2012, 12:12 AM
We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That's likely to go up again after Super Tuesday, since the most likely scenario has Romney winning 7 of the 10 states, Rick Santorum taking 2, and Newt Gingrich winning his home state of Georgia.

The question is whether voters in future primaries decide the race is effectively over after Tuesday and flock to Romney, or whether Santorum lives to fight another day in the polls. A big-enough night for Santorum could prolong his eventual defeat, since polls tend to be more short-sighted than markets. Here are the odds for tomorrow's individual elections:

We can predict with near certainty that Romney will win in Virginia (where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot), his home turf of Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont, and Idaho. Gingrich likewise has odds of about 95 percent in Georgia.

Romney has 81.6 percent odds in the crown jewel, Ohio, though polls—which lag compared to markets—have him virtually tied with Santorum. (The odds swung significantly in his favor after last week's wins in Arizona and Michigan.) As we've noted before, this literally means that 1 out of 5 times, Santorum pulls off an upset win. Meanwhile, Santorum has 88.6 percent odds in conservative Oklahoma.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/romney-goes-kill-super-tuesday-205640365.html

Romney could land a knockout blow tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see, hopefully we get some early results.

Mainecoons
03-06-2012, 07:52 AM
What gets knocked out today is any real choice in the election and any real chance that the disastrous Obama regime will be gone in January.

Nice work, Republicrats. Hari Kari by Primary!

Stoney
03-06-2012, 08:23 AM
Right! I don't think there's much chance that Obama will be beat. The economy will hang about where we are and the blind followers will rationalize that into success.

Scotty
03-06-2012, 09:24 AM
I'm gonna be bold with my predictions....You'll call me crazy....and i might just be...lol
Mitt Romeny---Mass, Vermont, Ohio*, Virgina**
Ron Paul---Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota
Rick Santorum---Ok, Tn
Newt Ginrich---Georgia

Notes
*Rick may get the popular vote but still loses bc of he cant get alot of delegates for failure to qualify.
**I put a note beside Virgina bc if the Newt and Rick supporters really get out and vote for Paul it could be close...and if Democrats who can vote in this wanna make some trouble and vote as well that would put Paul over the top....it's hard to say whether this would happen, but it's not impossible.


Like i said bold predictions, but why not

Mister D
03-06-2012, 09:33 AM
I heard Newt wasn't polling as well as he had expected in Georgia. Now that I look it up he appears to be doing much better. Still, even a collosal win in his home state isn't a big deal. Apparently, Georgia's delegates will be awarded proportionally. That's bad news for Newt.

MMC
03-06-2012, 09:43 AM
They are already doing it.....this morning economists are coming out saying that things will be better than they predicted. That Unemployment will go down to about 8.4%. That 215k jobs will be added in for the month of Febuary. That American manufacturing is on the rise. The Auto Industry is adding jobs and a GM a 3 rd shift again.That construction is on the rise and that the housing market didn't see any loss in new construction.

I think Romney wins the majority of the delgates to knock them all out or go for the brokered convention. Either way Big Money want to see the Obama/ Romeny Showdown.

The Media is playing this out like Santorum has a chance. Even tho they keep harping on Romney's money and organization. Then they expect Gingrich to take Georgia. Then according the MSM the fight is in Ohio, where NO republican Candidate who has ever lost Ohio went on to be the Nominee. That Ohio is so instrumental in deciding who we put in the White House. That Ohio has always been part of that process. :blahblah:

Scotty
03-06-2012, 09:43 AM
I heard Newt wasn't polling as well as he had expected in Georgia. Now that I look it up he appears to be doing much better. Still, even a collosal win in his home state isn't a big deal. Apparently, Georgia's delegates will be awarded proportionally. That's bad news for Newt.

I'll be honest..i don't see that many Newt signs...so if there are any in GA they are in Atlanta. Most people are stupid enough to vote for him just bc once upon a time he represented here.

MMC
03-06-2012, 09:46 AM
Whats up Scotty? That is you.....huh. Thats right you're from Georgia. You should know whats up down there with the Eye of Newt.

Scotty
03-06-2012, 09:48 AM
Whats up Scotty? That is you.....huh. Thats right you're from Georgia. You should know whats up down there with the Eye of Newt.

He will prob win...I can only speak to my tri county area.. Seems more Santorum...Although my town is overun with RP signs....not sure how they got there....lol

Mister D
03-06-2012, 09:51 AM
I'll be honest..i don't see that many Newt signs...so if there are any in GA they are in Atlanta. Most people are stupid enough to vote for him just bc once upon a time he represented here.

Well to be fair to Georgians it's like that everywhere. "Home state" is usually a significant advantage. Man, it would be humiliating if Gingrich lost Georgia. Not getting on the ballot in VA was embarrassing enough...

Scotty
03-06-2012, 10:00 AM
I don't know many people who consider this his home state...they just consider him a former resident and rep...It's not like Carter...this was/is his home state...not that he was any good.

MMC
03-06-2012, 11:10 AM
His backers owns the Sands in Vegas.(adelson....sp) So whatever millions he is throwing out to Gingrich is nothing but what he makes off the interest as the 13th Richest dude in the World. He worth like 26 Billion or so.

Which is why Gingrich keeps saying no matter what he will take it to the convention. Looks like the Eye of Newt is adding some spices to that pot. :stirthepot:

Scotty
03-06-2012, 11:42 AM
I hope he does.