The sanctions against Russia are designed to fail [Archive]

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pjohns

04-30-2014, 12:45 AM

It is an interesting analysis by George Friedman in Stratfor: Sometimes sanctions do not work at all, and sometimes--at the opposite extreme--they work so well as to prompt war, as when Imperial Japan decided, in 1941, that it would rather declare war upon the US than to meekly accept the sanctions that America had imposed upon it.

The sanctions imposed against Russia are intended, clearly, to be quite impotent.

As Mr. Friedman puts it, in his conclusion:

The U.S. sanctions strategy is therefore not designed to change Russian policies; it is designed to make it look like the United States is trying to change Russian policy. And it is aimed at those in Congress who have made this a major issue and at those parts of the State Department that want to orient U.S. national security policy around the issue of human rights. Both can be told that something is being done -- and both can pretend that something is being done -- when in fact nothing can be done. In a world clamoring for action, prudent leaders sometimes prefer the appearance of doing something to actually doing something. [Bold added]

Here is the link: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/us-opts-ineffective-sanctions-russia?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20140429&utm_term=Gweekly&utm_content=readmore

Germanicus

04-30-2014, 02:26 AM

The sanctions on Iran had less impact on Iran than USA really. I do not think that sanctions are a solution anyway really.

Refugee

04-30-2014, 02:54 AM

It is an interesting analysis by George Friedman in Stratfor: Sometimes sanctions do not work at all, and sometimes--at the opposite extreme--they work so well as to prompt war, as when Imperial Japan decided, in 1941, that it would rather declare war upon the US than to meekly accept the sanctions that America had imposed upon it.

The sanctions imposed against Russia are intended, clearly, to be quite impotent.

As Mr. Friedman puts it, in his conclusion:

Here is the link: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/us-opts-ineffective-sanctions-russia?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20140429&utm_term=Gweekly&utm_content=readmore

Yes, agreed. I think the U.S. government has to accept that although it wants to be the world’s policeman, there are other policemen in the world too. This time it went to near someone else’s backyard and was chased away. That hurts and it’s now publicly reduced to hurling insults and wanting to wreck an economy.

Russia could just as easily have pressed the button in 1991 rather than see the collapse of communism. I think the U.S. has to work out where these spheres of influence lie before it tries to interfere. Sanctions won’t work unless all are in agreement and dependent Europe will want the oil running through the Ukraine far more than joining in with the U.S. and sticking its tongue out at Russia.

pjohns

04-30-2014, 06:35 PM

Yes, agreed. I think the U.S. government has to accept that although it wants to be the world’s policeman, there are other policemen in the world too. This time it went to near someone else’s backyard and was chased away. That hurts and it’s now publicly reduced to hurling insults and wanting to wreck an economy.

Russia could just as easily have pressed the button in 1991 rather than see the collapse of communism. I think the U.S. has to work out where these spheres of influence lie before it tries to interfere. Sanctions won’t work unless all are in agreement and dependent Europe will want the oil running through the Ukraine far more than joining in with the U.S. and sticking its tongue out at Russia.

I agree with your assessment that most Europeans would prefer to continue to live in comfort, while allowing the enslavement of the Ukrainian people, rather than standing on principle and enduring the attendant sacrifice. (That attitude is a bit too cynical for my own taste; but it is very hard to deny that this attitude largely prevails in postmodern Europe.)

I fundamentally disagree, however, with the view that there should be "spheres of influence" accorded to Russia--or, for that matter, to the US, or to any other country--as such a view would (tacitly, at least) appear to spring from the fundamental premise that militarily strong countries should have an inherent right to dominate their much weaker neighbors. And I find that premise utterly repellent.

Peter1469

04-30-2014, 07:14 PM

Europe gets too much energy from Russia to be very serious over Ukraine.

waltky

01-16-2017, 01:46 AM

possum thinks the CIA gonna do the Donald in - like dey did Kennedy...
http://www.politicalforum.com/images/smilies/confused.gif
Trump's offer to Putin: an end to sanctions for nuclear arms cut - London Times
Jan 15 2017 - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose offering to end sanctions imposed on Russia for its annexation of Crimea in return for a nuclear arms reduction deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he told The Times of London.

Trump, in an interview with the newspaper published online on Sunday, was deeply critical of previous U.S. foreign policy, describing the invasion of Iraq as possibly the gravest error in the history of the United States and akin to “throwing rocks into a beehive”. But ahead of his inauguration on Friday as the 45th U.S. president, Trump raised the prospect of the first major step toward nuclear arms control since President Barack Obama struck a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia in 2010. "They have sanctions on Russia — let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia," the Republican president-elect was quoted as saying by The Times. "For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it. But Russia’s hurting very badly right now because of sanctions, but I think something can happen that a lot of people are gonna benefit."

http://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20170116&t=2&i=1168838498&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYNXMPED0E0HM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the lobby of Trump Tower in Manhattan, New York City

The United States and Russia are by far the world's biggest nuclear powers. The United States has 1,367 nuclear warheads on deployed strategic missiles and bombers, while Russia has 1,796 such deployed warheads, according to the latest published assessment by the U.S. State Department. Trump has vowed to improve relations with Moscow even as he faces criticism he is too eager to make an ally of Putin, a former KGB spy who rose to the top of the Kremlin in 1999. The issue has faced renewed scrutiny after an unsubstantiated report that Russia had collected compromising information about Trump.

The unverified dossier was summarized in a U.S. intelligence report presented to him and Obama this month that concluded Russia tried to sway the outcome of the Nov. 8 election in Trump's favor by hacking and other means. The report did not make an assessment on whether Russia's attempts affected the election's outcome. Trump accused U.S. intelligence agencies of leaking the dossier information, which he called "fake news" and phony stuff." Intelligence leaders denied the charge.

RUSSIAN RELATIONS (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-arms-deal-idUSKBN14Z0YE)

See also:

CIA director warns Trump to watch what he says, be careful on Russia
Sun Jan 15, 2017 | CIA Director John Brennan on Sunday offered a stern parting message for Donald Trump days before the Republican U.S. president-elect takes office, cautioning him against loosening sanctions on Russia and warning him to watch what he says.

Brennan rebuked Trump for comparing U.S. intelligence agencies to Nazi Germany in comments by the outgoing CIA chief that reflected the extraordinary friction between the incoming president and the 17 intelligence agencies he will begin to command once he takes office on Friday. In an interview with "Fox News Sunday," Brennan questioned the message sent to the world if the president-elect broadcasts that he does not have confidence in the United States' own intelligence agencies. "What I do find outrageous is equating the intelligence community with Nazi Germany. I do take great umbrage at that, and there is no basis for Mr. Trump to point fingers at the intelligence community for leaking information that was already available publicly," Brennan said.

Brennan's criticism followed a tumultuous week of finger-pointing between Trump and intelligence agency leaders over an unsubstantiated report that Russia had collected compromising information about Trump. The unverified dossier was summarized in a U.S. intelligence report presented to Trump and outgoing President Barack Obama this month that concluded Russia tried to sway the outcome of the Nov. 8 election in Trump's favor by hacking and other means. The report did not make an assessment on whether Russia's attempts affected the election's outcome.

http://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20170116&t=2&i=1168838497&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYNXMPED0E0C6
CIA Director John Brennan prepares to testify to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing on “Russia’s intelligence activities'' on Capitol Hill in Washington

Trump has accused the intelligence community of leaking the dossier information, which its leaders denied. They said it was their responsibility to inform the president-elect that the allegations were being circulated. Later on Sunday, Trump took to Twitter to berate Brennan and wrote, "Was this the leaker of Fake News?" In a separate posting, Trump scolded "those intelligence chiefs" for presenting the dossier as part of their briefing. "When people make mistakes, they should APOLOGIZE," he wrote. Brennan also sounded an alarm on U.S. relations with Russia. Trump has vowed to improve relations with Moscow even as he faces criticism that he is too eager to make an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump does not yet have a full understanding of Russia's actions, Brennan said, noting its seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, its support for President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war and Moscow's aggressive activities in the cyber realm. "Mr. Trump has to understand that absolving Russia of various actions it has taken in the past number of years is a road that he, I think, needs to be very, very careful about moving down," Brennan said. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Friday, Trump suggested he might do away with sanctions imposed by the Obama administration on Russia in late December in response to the cyber attacks if Moscow proves helpful in battling terrorists and reaching other U.S. goals.

PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-intelligence-idUSKBN14Z0O4)

donttread

01-16-2017, 08:37 AM

waltky

01-26-2018, 06:30 PM

Granny says, "Dat's right - sanction dey's butt till dey cry 'Uncle'...
:cool2:
Moscow, markets ready for possible fresh U.S. sanctions
January 26, 2018 - The United States could release reports as early as Monday detailing the possibilities for expanding sanctions against Russia, including a list of prominent oligarchs and potential restrictions on the holding of Russian government debt.

The reports are part of a sanctions bill passed overwhelmingly by Congress soon after U.S. President Donald Trump took office and signed by him in August last year, despite campaign pledges to improve ties with Russia.

WHAT ARE THE SANCTIONS?

The Aug. 2 sanctions bill expands and toughens those already in force against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and support for separatist rebels fighting in the east of the country. It is intended to further punish Moscow for its alleged meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, an accusation the Kremlin has repeatedly denied. The bill requires the U.S. Treasury Department to prepare a list of the most significant Russian oligarchs “as determined by their closeness to the Russian regime and their net worth”. This will be accompanied by a report “describing in detail the potential effects of expanding sanctions ... to include sovereign debt and the full range of derivative products.” Both reports are due to be sent to Congress by the end of January, weeks before Russia is due to vote in a presidential election which Vladimir Putin is widely expected to win.

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES?

While inclusion on the new list of individuals would not automatically lead to immediate sanctions, some members of Russia’s business elite have said being named is a major concern because the criteria and consequences are unclear. If sanctions are tightened later, based on the list due next week, this could prevent some of the Kremlin’s closest allies from traveling abroad or accessing foreign bank accounts. It may also trigger a freeze of foreign assets and make foreign politicians, banks and officials reluctant to have dealings with them. Such risks have already prompted some of Russia’s wealthiest people to distance themselves from Putin.

Expanding sanctions to cover debt and derivative products issued by the Russian government could impose restrictions on buying Russian treasury bonds, known as OFZs. Rouble-denominated OFZ bonds are popular with international investors because of their lucrative yields. Foreign investors held 2.2 trillion rubles ($39 billion) of OFZs as of Dec. 1 last year. Russian officials have played down the possible consequences of sanctioning OFZs and other debt instruments, but doing so could make it harder for the government to cover its budget deficit at a time when the economy is still fragile as a result of a two-year economic downturn.

HOW ARE MARKETS REACTING?

The country’s economic malaise, multiple bank bail-outs and concerns about fresh sanctions weighed on the relative performance of Russia’s main stock market last year, although a recovering oil price has helped cushion the impact. With key export crude oil hitting 3-year highs in recent weeks both the rouble and Russian stocks have risen - the main MOEX index is at a record high - although some say sanctions worries have still hampered gains. Demand for its high-yielding sovereign debt has remained consistently strong. At the end of December, foreigners held 32.1 percent of issued debt, just off the record high of 33.2 percent hit in October. Analysts at Bank of America say U.S. curbs on bond buying would lead to “material” pressure, although they - like most investors - consider it unlikely.

In defensive mode since the first round of sanctions, many Russian firms are sitting on healthier cash piles this time or have gone into the market to raise more, suggesting the broad-market impact of further sanctions could be more muted. Russian companies raised around $8 billion via share sales in 2017, more than double the amount raised in the prior year. They have also been active on the debt markets, raising as much as $2 billion through Eurobond issues in the first weeks of 2018 already, while others have looked to firm up lines of credit with their banks. On Thursday, Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM) said it had agreed fresh credit lines with several Russian banks in case sanctions contribute to any worsening of its business outlook.

WHAT ARE INVESTORS SAYING? (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-sanctions-explainer/moscow-markets-ready-for-possible-fresh-u-s-sanctions-idUSKBN1FF1OV)

See also:

Russia says no obligation to comply with U.S. sanction on North Korea
January 26, 2018 - Russia has no obligation to carry out sanctions set by the United States, including those on North Korea, RIA news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov as saying on Friday.

“We will carry out only sanctions which are adopted by the UN Security Council. We don’t recognize one-sided American sanctions, we have no international obligations to comply with them,” RIA quoted Morgulov as saying.

Morgulov also said Russia would not expel North Korean citizens who are subject to U.S. sanctions, and the U.S. special representative for North Korea had been invited to visit Moscow, RIA reported.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-sanctions-russia/russia-says-no-obligation-to-comply-with-u-s-sanction-on-north-korea-idUSKBN1FF2CB[/auote]

Related:

U.S. hits Russian deputy minister and energy firms with sanctions
January 26, 2018 - The United States added Russian officials and energy firms to a sanctions blacklist on Friday, days before details of further possible penalties against Moscow are due to be released.
[quote]
Washington could release reports as early as Monday laying out the possibilities for expanded sanctions against Russia over its alleged meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, an accusation the Kremlin has repeatedly denied. Russia is already under U.S. sanctions over its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and support for separatist rebels fighting in eastern Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury Department said it had added 21 people and nine companies to the sanctions list, including some that had been involved in the delivery of Siemens (SIEGn.DE) gas turbines to Crimea.

It said Friday’s announcement was not related to the reports due on Monday. “Today’s action is part of Treasury’s continued commitment to maintain sanctions pressure on Russia,” the department said in a statement. “This action underscores the U.S. government’s opposition to Russia’s occupation of Crimea and firm refusal to recognize its attempted annexation of the peninsula.” The Ukraine-related sanctions represent one of the many areas of tension between the United States and Russia, including over how to end the Syrian civil war and whether to hold to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign emphasis on improving ties with Moscow.

One of the people added to the list was Russian Deputy Energy Minister Andrey Cherezov, who was put under sanctions by the European Union over his role in the delivery of turbines to Crimea last year. The list also now includes Sergey Topor-Gilka, head of the Russian engineering company Technopromexport, as well as multiple subsidiaries of oil producer Surgutneftegaz (SNGS.MM), the Treasury Department said. A spokeswoman for Rostec, which is already subject to U.S. sanctions and is the parent company of Technopromexport, said the company regretted that the main U.S. main tool in international relations was pressure and not dialogue. The Russian Energy Ministry declined immediate comment.

Daniel Fried, a former U.S. State Department expert, said he viewed Friday’s announcement as “sanctions maintenance” - essentially targeting individuals and entities that have taken the place of others who have earlier been sanctioned. “To make sure a sanctions regime is effective, you need to update it periodically. You don’t simply target people and let it sit, because other people fill in and do the same bad deeds that you targeted the first ones for,” Fried said. RIA news agency quoted Vladimir Dzhabarov, deputy chairman of the international affairs committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament, as saying: “This is not a policy of sanctions, it is a policy of containing a growing Russia as much as possible. The Americans declared war on us. We draw conclusions from this and move on.”

Separately, the United States could release reports as early as Monday outlining the scope for expanding sanctions against Russia, including a list of prominent oligarchs and potential restrictions on the holding of Russian government debt. The Aug. 2 sanctions bill requires the U.S. Treasury Department to prepare a list of the most significant Russian oligarchs “as determined by their closeness to the Russian regime and their net worth”. This will be accompanied by a report “describing in detail the potential effects of expanding sanctions ... to include sovereign debt and the full range of derivative products.” Both reports are due to be sent to Congress by the end of January, weeks before Russia is due to vote in a presidential election which Vladimir Putin is widely expected to win.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-sanctions-expansion/u-s-hits-russian-deputy-minister-and-energy-firms-with-sanctions-idUSKBN1FF24P

Additional...

Russia says new U.S. sanctions are destructive step, will retaliate: RIA
January 26, 2018 - New U.S. sanctions against Russia are a destructive step which further worsens relations between Moscow and Washington, RIA news agency cited a senior Russian lawmaker as saying on Friday.

The United States added Russian officials and energy firms to a sanctions blacklist earlier on Friday, days before details of further possible penalties against Moscow are due to be released.

Leonid Slutsky, head of the lower house of parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said Russia would retaliate against the new sanctions, RIA reported.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-sanctions-expansion-lawmaker/russia-says-new-u-s-sanctions-are-destructive-step-will-retaliate-ria-idUSKBN1FF2DT