Dems may hold Senate

[Peter1469]

Dems may hold Senate (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/16/democrats-now-have-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/)


Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dre/politics/election-lab-2014), The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.


Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/15/our-election-model-says-republicans-have-an-86-percent-chance-of-winning-the-senate-heres-why-that-might-be-wrong/). (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides (https://twitter.com/monkeycageblog) — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

[Captain Obvious]

I really don't believe the GOP is taking the senate, said that before. They have nothing to run on.

[Cigar]

I really don't believe the GOP is taking the senate, said that before. They have nothing to run on.


Sure they do ... Benghazi :grin:

[Mac-7]

I really don't believe the GOP is taking the senate, said that before. They have nothing to run on.

Repubs did not inflict obsmacare on America.

but the democrat senators did.

repubs did not create Isis.

obama did and the marked democrst senators support Obama.

the repubs did not lure a million unaccompanied children from Central America to invade our southern border illegally.

again thank Obama and the dems for that.

[Cigar]

How Soon People Forget :laugh:

http://www.documons.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/inside_job.jpg (http://www.documons.com/inside-job/)

http://www.sonyclassics.com/insidejob/

[Codename Section]

They don't need to run on anything they just have to point out how lousy of a job the Dems did. That's the American way.

[Mainecoons]

Polls of this type, just like the ones saying the opposite, are pretty meaningless. By the time the election rolls around, there are going to be a lot of folks out there getting huge hikes in their medical premiums thanks to ObamaCare. In two months, the latest round of foreign military intervention could go well or very badly.

A lot of stuff pro and con can happen in two months.

[Captain Obvious]

Sure they do ... Benghazi :grin:

Yeah, exactly.

[Captain Obvious]

They don't need to run on anything they just have to point out how lousy of a job the Dems did. That's the American way.

But they can't even do that right.

It's not like they don't have enough ammunition to work with.

[Mac-7]

But they can't even do that right.

It's not like they don't have enough ammunition to work with.


The repubs only have about 5% of the news media to get their message out to the people.

most journalists are libs who work for the democrat party.

[Captain Obvious]

The repubs only have about 5% of the news media to get their message out to the people.

most journalists are libs who work for the democrat party.

Right.

Conservative talk radio dominates the ratings market.

See ya in church.

[Common Sense]

Right.

Conservative talk radio dominates the ratings market.

See ya in church.

Plus the highest rated "news" network. They're just so oppressed.

[Captain Obvious]

Plus the highest rated "news" network. They're just so oppressed.

Yeah, the "liberal media" schtick is laughable.

It's also insulting albeit true that it takes news (aka propaganda) to herd the flock one way or the other.

Self incriminating also.

[Mac-7]

Fox News is a cable channel.

even lowly CBS reaches more homes every day than Fox.

Now add all the other biased lib news sources and that leaves little room for both sides of the story.

[Ransom]

I fully expect them to keep the Senate as well

[Common Sense]

Fox News is a cable channel.

even lowly CBS reaches more homes every day than Fox.

Now add all the other biased lib news sources and that leaves little room for both sides of the story.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_3iDeI09HJEw/S7d1l40mDBI/AAAAAAAABUw/NEIIrMilryk/s1600/fox+ratings.gif

[Mainecoons]

Fox News is a cable channel.

even lowly CBS reaches more homes every day than Fox.

Now add all the other biased lib news sources and that leaves little room for both sides of the story.

Uh Common, where is CBS on your graph? NBC? ABC?

If you're going to post pretty pictures, try and post ones that respond to Mac's point.

For example:


In week 50 of the broadcast television season ending Sunday, September 14, 2014, CBS wasnumber one among adults 18-49 with a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating (http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/09/02/what-is-a-tv-rating-and-who-is-it-dating-2014-15-edition/298788/) average. NBC was second with a 2.3. ABC and FOX tied for third with a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating average. Univision was fifth with a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating average. The CW finished sixth with a 0.3 adults 18-49 rating average.CBS won the week with total viewers, with 8.218 million viewers, ahead of second place NBC with 7.774 million.ABC tookthirdwith 4.099 million viewers, followed by FOX with 2.942 million viewers, Univision with 2.666 and the CW took sixth with 0.929 million.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/09/16/cbs-nbc-tie-for-number-one-among-adults-18-49-cbs-wins-with-total-viewers-in-week-51-ending-september-14-2014/302957/

For the math challenged, that last sentence means that the three liberal networks combined had about 20 million viewers versus about 3 million for the one conservative outlet, Fox.

That sure explains why the libs here constantly rant about Fox, yep.

[PolWatch]

hmm...we have a Fox Channel (with news) that is not a cable channel...just like ABC, NBC, CBS...are they part of the liberal media since they aren't cable?

[Mainecoons]

????

Not making much sense there, Granny.

[PolWatch]

????

Not making much sense there, Granny.

mac was saying that Fox is a cable network and not comparable to CBS, etc....Most local areas have a FOX channel that is available without cable and therefore, is comparable to CBS, etc.

[Mainecoons]

I think we need to separate out Fox News, which is cable only, versus Fox OTA (over the air) which is primarily entertainment.

The point is that when it comes to viewership, Fox is pretty dinky still compared to the big boys, who are all liberal.

[Mac-7]

mac was saying that Fox is a cable network and not comparable to CBS, etc....Most local areas have a FOX channel that is available without cable and therefore, is comparable to CBS, etc.

Fox OTA Network has 3 mil viewers and Fox News cable adds 1.2 mil.

all the rest, about 20 million mind numbed Obama zombies watch the lib networks.

[The Xl]

They can't run on anything. They're either as bad, slightly better, or slightly worse than the left, depending on the issue.

Truthfully, I think a lot of Americans are scared at the thought of Republicans in general getting in and pushing some crazy full scale war with Isis.

[Green Arrow]

I think we will end up putting boots on the ground in October, which will negatively impact Democrats and potentially yield the upper chamber to the GOP.

Which is why Obama is so reticent to put boots on the ground. He knows it will hurt his party and, by extension, his last two years as President.

[The Xl]

Both parties will take us to war. We don't have an alternative.

This is neither a Democracy nor a Republic.

[Captain Obvious]

Both parties will take us to war. We don't have an alternative.

This is neither a Democracy nor a Republic.

but... but...

...Bob said it was a republic

[The Xl]

but... but...

...Bob said it was a republic

Bobs says a lot of shit.

[Green Arrow]

Both parties will take us to war. We don't have an alternative.

This is neither a Democracy nor a Republic.

Sure they will, but Obama made the mistake of slathering his name all over this stuff and it will be HIS cabinet (Sec. Hagel) and Joint Chiefs of Staff (Gen. Dempsey) recommending boots on the ground, and Democrat leaders like Reid and Pelosi encouraging Oblargma to do it without Congress.

And if Republicans are smart, they'll let them take the lead.

[The Xl]

Sure they will, but Obama made the mistake of slathering his name all over this stuff and it will be HIS cabinet (Sec. Hagel) and Joint Chiefs of Staff (Gen. Dempsey) recommending boots on the ground, and Democrat leaders like Reid and Pelosi encouraging Oblargma to do it without Congress.

And if Republicans are smart, they'll let them take the lead.

This is true, but even the dumbed down American public would know that the Neocons would be at least as bad, likely worse on the war front.

We're fucked either way. Whatever.

[Green Arrow]

This is true, but even the dumbed down American public would know that the Neocons would be at least as bad, likely worse on the war front.

We're fucked either way. Whatever.

You know as well as I do that it's meaningless. Sure, everyone knows McCain, Graham, and King are just as responsible as Obama, Reid, and Pelosi. But it'll ultimately be a government controlled by the latter that puts us into a new war. Democrats were just as culpable as Bush in sending us to Iraq the first time, but it was Bush that ultimately issued the orders and it helped the Democrats win in 2008.

[Codename Section]

IMPress Polly said something once that I disagreed with at first and then thought about it. She said the best we can do is vote in a direction or trend. The guys on REASON said it, too. People have been scared off libertarianism by the MSM so the best I can do is vote Rand Paul because he has SOME libertarian ideas and then the next time that a Gary Johnson or Justin Amash runs the country will be less scared.

[Green Arrow]

@IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) said something once that I disagreed with at first and then thought about it. She said the best we can do is vote in a direction or trend. The guys on REASON said it, too. People have been scared off libertarianism by the MSM so the best I can do is vote Rand Paul because he has SOME libertarian ideas and then the next time that a Gary Johnson or Justin Amash runs the country will be less scared.

I agree with that, but what do we do if Rand doesn't make it? I guarantee you that if Romney runs again (99% certain he will), he'll win the nomination. He may have to fight Rand for it, but he'll win.

[Common Sense]

Uh Common, where is CBS on your graph? NBC? ABC?

If you're going to post pretty pictures, try and post ones that respond to Mac's point.

For example:



[/B]http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/09/16/cbs-nbc-tie-for-number-one-among-adults-18-49-cbs-wins-with-total-viewers-in-week-51-ending-september-14-2014/302957/

For the math challenged, that last sentence means that the three liberal networks combined had about 20 million viewers versus about 3 million for the one conservative outlet, Fox.

That sure explains why the libs here constantly rant about Fox, yep.


[/FONT][/COLOR]

Those are cable networks with TV programs...that's not only news. Unless of course Days of Our Lives is some communist plot to turn everyone into gay Muslims.

[Green Arrow]

Those are cable networks with TV programs...that's not only news. Unless of course Days of Our Lives is some communist plot to turn everyone into gay Muslims.

Hah!

[Ransom]

I think we will end up putting boots on the ground in October, which will negatively impact Democrats and potentially yield the upper chamber to the GOP.

Which is why Obama is so reticent to put boots on the ground. He knows it will hurt his party and, by extension, his last two years as President.

Well....he should certainly consider his last two years and his party and what not, I mean....isn't that what all Presidents should do when risking American lives?

Political animals revealed.....we seem to have a f'n zoo here on tpf!! After all Arrow......you'd make your decisions based on politics right?

[nic34]

Repubs did not inflict obsmacare on America.

but the democrat senators did.

repubs did not create Isis.

obama did (link?) and the marked democrst senators support Obama.

the repubs did not lure a million unaccompanied children from Central America to invade our southern border illegally.

again thank Obama and the dems for that. (links?)

Sure he did.... see comments above^^^

[Green Arrow]

Well....he should certainly consider his last two years and his party and what not, I mean....isn't that what all Presidents should do when risking American lives?

Political animals revealed.....we seem to have a f'n zoo here on tpf!! After all Arrow......you'd make your decisions based on politics right?

I'll respond when I'm done laughing at how you completely missed the point. For the self-proclaimed "Smartest Guy on the Forum," you sure don't know how to read.

[nic34]

the three liberal networks

I might give ya "moderate" but certainly not LIBERAL..... :laugh:

[zelmo1234]

I think that the Democrats are likely to end up with that 50/50 split, and of course that makes Biden the tie breaker.

But why should they not end up holding control?

I am a conservative through and through. What are the Republicans going to do for America if the gain control of the Senate? I will wait

They have no plan, that is not what I want to vote for, and why should I?

We are better than the democrats is not enough reason for me to vote for them.

[nic34]

@IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) said something once that I disagreed with at first and then thought about it. She said the best we can do is vote in a direction or trend. The guys on REASON said it, too. People have been scared off libertarianism by the MSM so the best I can do is vote Rand Paul because he has SOME libertarian ideas and then the next time that a Gary Johnson or Justin Amash runs the country will be less scared.

You're getting the idea. But I would go for Bernie and Kucinnich, and Feingold long before Amash and Johnson.

Too bad they don't make 'em like Paul Wellstone anymore.

I like Rand because he bothers the GOPers....

[Peter1469]

Maybe the Dems won't keep the senate- they may be putting to much faith in one pollster. (http://www.businessinsider.com/sam-wang-nate-silver-forecasts-dem-senate-hold-2014-9)

[Bob]

The repubs only have about 5% of the news media to get their message out to the people.

most journalists are libs who work for the democrat party.

That is correct.

Radio has features that favor the republicans but bear the old saying in mind.

A picture is worth ten thousand words.

Those pictures by the left on TV sway even so called third party people as we see on the forum in spades.

They note the pictures by the left on TV and use that to blast republicans.

[Private Pickle]

I'm going with IMPress Polly on this and her original prediction. The GOP will get the 6 seats need and maybe even 1 or 2 more.

The left doesn't come out to vote unless its a President.

[Bob]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html

[Green Arrow]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html

It's typically good forum etiquette to post original commentary and a quote from the linked source when posting a link.

[nic34]

One does not put "faith" in a pollster. That does nothing, as we saw on Fox election night 2012.

You put faith in your workers to get voters to the polls.

[Peter1469]

One does not put "faith" in a pollster. That does nothing, as we saw on Fox election night 2012.

You put faith in your workers to get voters to the polls.

The 2012 pollsters were wrong because they assumed 2008 turnout levels. To many republicans were disgusted with milk toast magic panties and how he won the nomination- millions stayed home- or went to a bar.

[Redrose]

How Soon People Forget :laugh:

http://www.documons.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/inside_job.jpg (http://www.documons.com/inside-job/)

http://www.sonyclassics.com/insidejob/


What's that pile of money, the Obama's vacation allowance?

[Redrose]

One does not put "faith" in a pollster. That does nothing, as we saw on Fox election night 2012.

You put faith in your workers to get voters to the polls.

All the pollsters got it wrong in 2012 because Obama's re-election defied all logic and reason. Logic was not factored into most of the votes for Obama. Emotion and fantasy, not knowledge and intelligence elected him.

That may happen again in November. Too many left leaning voters don't know squat about politics or who is who and what their platform is. They should stay home on election day and bake hash brownies and watch Letterman.

[Peter1469]

Elections have consequences. I don't want to mitigate those. I want people to get what they vote for. All the way.

[Redrose]

I think people are getting what they voted for.......disaster. Unfortunately, those of us who didn't vote for Utopia, are suffering too.

[Peter1469]

I think people are getting what they voted for.......disaster. Unfortunately, those of us who didn't vote for Utopia, are suffering too.

Right. Majority wins. Minority needs to step up game and nominate a man/woman. Not a milk toast pos.

[Green Arrow]

I think people are getting what they voted for.......disaster. Unfortunately, those of us who didn't vote for Utopia, are suffering too.

I don't think anybody votes for disaster. The problem is people vote for words and not actions.

[Green Arrow]

All the pollsters got it wrong in 2012 because Obama's re-election defied all logic and reason. Logic was not factored into most of the votes for Obama. Emotion and fantasy, not knowledge and intelligence elected him.

That may happen again in November. Too many left leaning voters don't know squat about politics or who is who and what their platform is. They should stay home on election day and bake hash brownies and watch Letterman.

No offense, but that's just partisan nonsense talking. Stupidity was high in both sides in both 2008 AND 2012, and stupidity will probably be high in both sides in 2016, too.

[Redrose]

I don't think anybody votes for disaster. The problem is people vote for words and not actions.

Yes, no one votes for disaster on purpose but they voted for fairy tale politics. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that will lead to disaster.

[Mac-7]

All the pollsters got it wrong in 2012 because Obama's re-election defied all logic and reason. Logic was not factored into most of the votes for Obama. Emotion and fantasy, not knowledge and intelligence elected him.

.

Conventional wisdom assumed Obama would lose because of the bad economy and high unemployment.

but what the experts overlooked is that Obama voters do not need jobs as long as the they have the crown prince of the welfare state - Obama - taking care of them.

[IMPress Polly]

Private Pickle wrote:
I'm going with @IMPress Polly (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=399) on this and her original prediction. The GOP will get the 6 seats need and maybe even 1 or 2 more.

The left doesn't come out to vote unless its a President.

Thanks for the faith! :smiley: HOWEVER...my initial predictions, as stated in thread in question, were tentative. I qualified them by saying that it was early and that things could yet change a lot. Indeed, I would assess that things have changed substantially since my post on August 26th (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/30818-2014-U-S-Election-Predictions?p=739903#post739903). On August 26th, I predicted that the Democrats would gain no new seats in the Senate and that the following six to seven Senate seats would flip from Democratic control to Republican control, with the qualification that the North Carolina race was actually tied:

1. North Carolina <-- This prediction was the most iffy at the time.
2. West Virginia
3. Arkansas
4. Louisiana
5. South Dakota
6. Montana
7. Alaska

As of today, by contrast, I'm predicting that the Republicans will win the following FIVE new Senate seats...

1. West Virginia
2. Arkansas
3. Louisiana
4. South Dakota
5. Montana

...and the Republicans might actually lose their Senate seat in Kansas to an independent candidate who has recently taken the lead (by a seven-point margin) over his Republican competitor. (The Democrats appear poised to keep their Senate seats in North Carolina and Alaska at this point.) In short, things have gotten more competitive since last month, as we've now entered election season proper and people are now paying attention. Thus I am currently predicting that the Republicans will net four or five additional Senate seats this year, i.e. Democrats will narrowly retain overall control of the Senate.

(Nothing else noteworthy has changed since August though. I maintain the accuracy of August's predictions on the House and gubernatorial races.)


Green Arrow wrote:
I agree with that, but what do we do if Rand doesn't make it? I guarantee you that if Romney runs again (99% certain he will), he'll win the nomination. He may have to fight Rand for it, but he'll win.

I doubt Romney will run for president again in 2016. It's hard to predict who will win the Republican Party's nomination for president at this early stage, as the polls are basically tied between several prospective candidates, including Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul. I figure it'll basically consolidate around one of the first three on the one one side and one of the latter two on the opposing side in the end, with the emergent favorite in the first group likely emerging victorious due to superior funding. That's kinda how it usually goes when you break down the GOP factions and their presidential contests.

[Captain Obvious]

Thanks for the faith! :smiley: HOWEVER...my initial predictions were, as stated in thread in question, were tentative. I qualified them by saying that it was early and that things could yet change a lot. Indeed, I would assess that things have changed substantially since my post on August 26th (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/30818-2014-U-S-Election-Predictions?p=739903#post739903). On August 26th, I predicted that the Democrats would gain no new seats in the Senate and that the following six to seven Senate seats would flip from Democratic control to Republican control, with the qualification that the North Carolina race was actually tied:

1. North Carolina <-- This prediction was the most iffy at the time.
2. West Virginia
3. Arkansas
4. Louisiana
5. South Dakota
6. Montana
7. Alaska

As of today, by contrast, I'm predicting that the Republicans will win the following FIVE new Senate seats...

1. West Virginia
2. Arkansas
3. Louisiana
4. South Dakota
5. Montana

...and the Republicans might actually lose their Senate seat in Kansas to an independent candidate who has recently taken the lead (by a seven-point margin) over his Republican competitor. (The Democrats appear poised to keep their Senate seats in North Carolina and Alaska at this point.) In short, things have gotten more competitive since last month, as we've now entered election season proper and people are now paying attention. Thus I am currently predicting that the Republicans will net four or five additional Senate seats this year, i.e. Democrats will narrowly retain overall control of the Senate.

(Nothing else noteworthy has changed since August though. I maintain the accuracy of August's predictions on the House and gubernatorial races.)



I doubt Romney will run for president again in 2016. It's hard to predict who will win the Republican Party's nomination for president at this early stage, as the polls are basically tied between several prospective candidates, including Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul. I figure it'll basically consolidate around one of the first three on the one one side and one of the latter two on the opposing side in the end, with the emergent favorite in the first group likely emerging victorious due to superior funding. That's kinda how it usually goes when you break down the GOP factions and their presidential contests.

WV is a conservative state that's still stuck in the Senator "sugar daddy" Byrd mentality.

[zelmo1234]

I think that Polly is very close to being right, It depends, some of the polls are using 2012 turn out models, just as the polls in 12 that predicted Romney used 10 turn out models.

The likely turn out will be closer to 2010 as Obama is not on the ticket.

But the Republicans have given the people NO reasons to vote for them. they have no plan or agenda to follow if we return the senate tot he? So why should we vote for them

[nic34]

The 2012 pollsters were wrong because they assumed 2008 turnout levels. To many republicans were disgusted with milk toast magic panties and how he won the nomination- millions stayed home- or went to a bar.

Right, pollsters are human and can be wrong.

From time to time.

[IMPress Polly]

My predictions this year are based mainly on probability predictions. Those are predictions based on the way large numbers of people are betting the outcome of a given race will go. That seems to be the most reliable way to predict election outcomes.

[Redrose]

No offense, but that's just partisan nonsense talking. Stupidity was high in both sides in both 2008 AND 2012, and stupidity will probably be high in both sides in 2016, too.

There are degrees of stipidity. Reviewing the last 7 years from the campaign through today, a vast number of his supporters are completely ignorant of anything even remotely resembling intelligent political knowledge. One example was a poll that our GOP did in Knoxville. 100 people randomly selected, and asked basic questions, of those who said they were Obama supporters, many couldn't say which party Obama belonged to, but knew it was not Republican. Did not know who the VP is. Never heard of Benghazi. When asked who would be president if Obama was unable so serve, some said Michelle. This is no joke. Some were very knowledbeable, but the majority were pathetic.

[Green Arrow]

There are degrees of stipidity. Reviewing the last 7 years from the campaign through today, a vast number of his supporters are completely ignorant of anything even remotely resembling intelligent political knowledge. One example was a poll that our GOP did in Knoxville. 100 people randomly selected, and asked basic questions, of those who said they were Obama supporters, many couldn't say which party Obama belonged to, but knew it was not Republican. Did not know who the VP is. Never heard of Benghazi. When asked who would president if Obama was unable so serve, some said Michelle. This is no joke. Some were very knowledbeable, but the majority were pathetic.

I've seen similar results polling Republicans. The simple fact is the vast majority of our American population is stupid, no nicer way to put it. Our education system at all levels is a sham and elections are about as deep as a game of football. Hardly anybody votes for principle anymore, they just vote based on which team they are on.