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Trinnity
05-16-2012, 11:27 AM
Election 2012: North Carolina President (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president)

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Mitt Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over President Obama in North Carolina after the two men were virtually tied a month ago.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State shows the putative Republican nominee earning 51% of the vote to Obama’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

That’s a big change from last month when Romney posted a narrow 46% to 44% lead over the president in Rasmussen Reports’ first survey of the race in North Carolina. Democrats have signaled North Carolina’s importance as a key swing state by deciding to hold their national convention in Charlotte this summer.


(great article, read more at the link)

This just confirms my earlier proclamation (elsewhere) that NC is not a swing state, and that Obama's support is a house of cards.
These numbers will hold. The race will tighten come November, but I still predict Obama will lose.

What about other swing states? I'm looking at Ohio and Florida as important states in this race.

Obama's reelection will live or die on the economy and jobs. But his policies have inhibited the growth of both. Now that's social justice.

What are your thoughts on how the race is shaping up?

MMC
05-16-2012, 11:49 AM
Indiana, NC, and Wyoming went with Obama last time. This time they will not be. The question mark IMO comes with Virginia. Florida will go Red.(Jeb Bush) Obama knows he has lost some of the Jewish vote and the Hispanic Vote. Plus the Cuban vote. Hence the DNC trying to make Florida a push with gun laws over the Zimmermann case and then trying to make it racial over MSmedia's terminology of White Hispanic. Big time failure.

Ohis is definately the Swing state.....although I heard Team Obama considers Pennsylvania a swing state now. Also they were hoping to pick up New Mexico. But Sanchez has done a good job with the state. Plus Richardson and his crew are out. So they won't be pulling them either.

Mainecoons
05-16-2012, 04:29 PM
You do know that John Sanchez is not governor in NM, he is Lt. Governor. Suzanna Martinez is governor and she's attracting a lot of attention too as a rising Republican political star.

I know John personally and was one of the two people that ran his nationally recognized upset of Raymond Sanchez, Democrat, and formerly the longest sitting Speaker of a State House in America. He's a great guy and has a bright political future IMO.

Shoot the Goose
05-16-2012, 04:44 PM
Indiana, NC, and Wyoming went with Obama last time. This time they will not be. The question mark IMO comes with Virginia. Florida will go Red.(Jeb Bush) Obama knows he has lost some of the Jewish vote and the Hispanic Vote. Plus the Cuban vote. Hence the DNC trying to make Florida a push with gun laws over the Zimmermann case and then trying to make it racial over MSmedia's terminology of White Hispanic. Big time failure.

Ohis is definately the Swing state.....although I heard Team Obama considers Pennsylvania a swing state now. Also they were hoping to pick up New Mexico. But Sanchez has done a good job with the state. Plus Richardson and his crew are out. So they won't be pulling them either.

I believe you meant Colorado, and not Wyoming. Wyoming will be the last red state standing.

MMC
05-16-2012, 04:58 PM
You do know that John Sanchez is not governor in NM, he is Lt. Governor. Suzanna Martinez is governor and she's attracting a lot of attention too as a rising Republican political star.

I know John personally and was one of the two people that ran his nationally recognized upset of Raymond Sanchez, Democrat, and formerly the longest sitting Speaker of a State House in America. He's a great guy and has a bright political future IMO.


Thats Right MC.....thanks for the Correction. Sanchez is the Demo in Southern Cal. Martinez is the one that has switched N. Mexico around.

MMC
05-16-2012, 05:00 PM
I believe you meant Colorado, and not Wyoming. Wyoming will be the last red state standing.


I thought Wyoming went with Obama. Maybe it was Montana. Either way those Red States won't be voting for him this time. Especially now that all know he is no different than any other politican.

Conley
05-16-2012, 05:19 PM
MMC, you might be thinking of NM.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

The divisions on that map couldn't be clearer...what a divided country.

MMC
05-16-2012, 05:23 PM
Thanks CL.....yeah that was it. So as you can see he won't be pulling Indiana, NC, NM, and Florida. That makes for the game changer.

Conley
05-16-2012, 05:26 PM
Losing Ohio is going to hurt him too...and PA could be up in the balance also. It's going to much tighter this time around IMO.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 05:29 PM
People are just not going to come out like they did for BO in 2008. Now will they be excited about Romney...?

Shoot the Goose
05-16-2012, 05:31 PM
I thought Wyoming went with Obama. Maybe it was Montana. Either way those Red States won't be voting for him this time. Especially now that all know he is no different than any other politican.

Getting a little off topic Trin, and my apologies.

It was Colorado, which along with New Mexico, are the two high-country states that go weird sometimes. I think that it is because both got a heavier influx of folks from both coasts, and CO especially from CA in the 90's, over the last 40 years. CO started to do weird stuff going back to the early '70's, when they had been awarded the '76 Winter Olympics, but a movement got it on the ballot in '72, and CO voted to rejectthe Olympics that they had originally competed to get. So it went to Innsbruck, Austria.

But I agree. I think all the Mountain folks have had enough of that jackass Obama. Same with is Floridians. Obama is losing this state in November as well.

MMC
05-16-2012, 05:32 PM
Losing Ohio is going to hurt him too...and PA could be up in the balance also. It's going to much tighter this time around IMO.

I think so to.....plus not as many voters as 2008. Don't know why Team Obama considers Pennsylvania as a swing state tho. Plus today now another one of Roves groups Unleashed 25 million for another Ad to run against Obama.

Either way it going to get nasty out there.

Conley
05-16-2012, 05:44 PM
Arizona has a lot of CA transplants as well but they were red and will only be more red this time around too.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 05:45 PM
Arizona has a lot of CA transplants as well but they were red and will only be more red this time around too.

I would imagine that CA is losing it's Republicans to places like AZ. I could certainly be wrong.

MMC
05-16-2012, 05:58 PM
Same way with Illinois and Indiana.....most of the Republicans around the Chicagoland area have been breaking over the border into Indiana. Been that way for years now.

I still belive that in order to turn the Economy around. That NY, Chicago and L.A.....must be taken from the Demos hands at all costs. Over 75 years of abysmal failure with Economics and Democratic contol. Time for the rest of the Country to wake up to those facts.

Shoot the Goose
05-16-2012, 06:04 PM
Same way with Illinois and Indiana.....most of the Republicans around the Chicagoland area have been breaking over the border into Indiana. Been that way for years now.

I still belive that in order to turn the Economy around. That NY, Chicago and L.A.....must be taken from the Demos hands at all costs. Over 75 years of abysmal failure with Economics and Democratic contol. Time for the rest of the Country to wake up to those facts.

Frankly, I think that those three urban areas will continue to decay. I think we are closer to 'Escape From New York' than we are seeing it with a Conservative City Council.

160

Shoot the Goose
05-16-2012, 06:06 PM
I would imagine that CA is losing it's Republicans to places like AZ. I could certainly be wrong.

You are correct. But more to Texas and Utah. However, CA is now declining in relative population, and business is running out of the state. CA gained no Congressional seats in the 2010 census, a first in modern times, and I suspect will be losing them by 2020. Like NY. And IL. And other liberal cesspools. Meanwhile, red states will gain.

MMC
05-16-2012, 06:10 PM
Frankly, I think that those three urban areas will continue to decay. I think we are closer to 'Escape From New York' than we are seeing it with a Conservative City Council.

160

True Dat.....the only problem is they make up for over 1/4th of the Nation's Economy. You would think after 30 years the picture couldn't be any clearer. Yet the Demos have people so divided and dumbed-down in those areas. But for some odd reason.....they keep voting the crooks right back in.

wingrider
05-16-2012, 06:11 PM
Getting a little off topic Trin, and my apologies.

It was Colorado, which along with New Mexico, are the two high-country states that go weird sometimes. I think that it is because both got a heavier influx of folks from both coasts, and CO especially from CA in the 90's, over the last 40 years. CO started to do weird stuff going back to the early '70's, when they had been awarded the '76 Winter Olympics, but a movement got it on the ballot in '72, and CO voted to rejectthe Olympics that they had originally competed to get. So it went to Innsbruck, Austria.

But I agree. I think all the Mountain folks have had enough of that jackass Obama. Same with is Floridians. Obama is losing this state in November as well.

seeing that I live in colorado and have a chance to check the pulse of sentiments here, Obama will not carry Colorado, most of the folks I have talked to have had it with him. they would vote for their local dog catcher before pulling the lever for that tool

Mister D
05-16-2012, 06:12 PM
Frankly, I think that those three urban areas will continue to decay. I think we are closer to 'Escape From New York' than we are seeing it with a Conservative City Council.

160

Snake Plisskin!

wingrider
05-16-2012, 06:13 PM
I would imagine that CA is losing it's Republicans to places like AZ. I could certainly be wrong.
not jsut arizona you can include Texas, Colorado, and Utah in that mix also

Mister D
05-16-2012, 06:13 PM
You are correct. But more to Texas and Utah. However, CA is now declining in relative population, and business is running out of the state. CA gained no Congressional seats in the 2010 census, a first in modern times, and I suspect will be losing them by 2020. Like NY. And IL. And other liberal cesspools. Meanwhile, red states will gain.

The tax base is slowing leaving that's for sure. That will only compound their deficit problems.

wingrider
05-16-2012, 06:14 PM
people vote wwith their feet when it comes to exorbitant tax and spend policies.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 06:16 PM
people vote wwith their feet when it comes to exorbitant tax and spend policies.

That and an invasion from Mexico.

wingrider
05-16-2012, 06:18 PM
That and an invasion from Mexico.

nah according to the numbers .. even they are leaving in record numbers..

MMC
05-16-2012, 06:26 PM
It is the same with Illinois.....as they are driving buisness out. Which has no problem up and moving over the border.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 06:26 PM
nah according to the numbers .. even they are leaving in record numbers..

Good. At least there is a silver lining to a troubled economy.

Shoot the Goose
05-16-2012, 06:46 PM
Good. At least there is a silver lining to a troubled economy.

There usually is. Sometimes its a very expensive silver lining.

Another tangent. Folks have mentioned PA as being in-play. I think most of us would agree that of all those states that might flip, PA would be the biggest insult to Obama. I mean, heck, if he loses PA, he loses all the rest. Being an east coast state, PA will start to come in early on election night too.

PA is kind of unique in that way of flipping. Its considered a blue collar bastion, but still swings Conservative at times, and sometimes will buck the other NE states.

A great read is The Panic of '57. That's 1857. The consensus 'worst President ever', James Buchanan, a son of PA (and the only one to become President) was at the helm. Speaking of which, Obama should win that crown from Buchanan, the WPE one, that is.

Keeping it as brief as I can, that Panic, and Buchanan's anemic response, caused the final shift in the electoral map that paved the way for a Repblican North, and a divided Democrat South, which then ushered in Lincoln and the Republicans in 1860, and tripped the Civil War. It was Buchanan's home state. PA, that delivered the biggest FU to him in the '58 midterms. NJ shifted big too, but not like PA. Both had significant manufacturing bases, got killed in the Panic, and took it out on Buchanan. Rightfully so, as he was a do-nothing waste. The '58 midterms, to include the PA State Legislature, were the biggest swing in the history of the Republic, by one state, from one party to another. Put another way, PA flipped the biggest bird to a sitting party in our nation's history. To the then worst President ever.

History repeats, dontcha know :wink:

MMC
05-16-2012, 06:59 PM
There usually is. Sometimes its a very expensive silver lining.

Another tangent. Folks have mentioned PA as being in-play. I think most of us would agree that of all those states that might flip, PA would be the biggest insult to Obama. I mean, heck, if he loses PA, he loses all the rest. Being an east coast state, PA will start to come in early on election night too.

PA is kind of unique in that way of flipping. Its considered a blue collar bastion, but still swings Conservative at times, and sometimes will buck the other NE states.

A great read is The Panic of '57. That's 1857. The consensus 'worst President ever', James Buchanan, a son of PA (and the only one to become President) was at the helm. Speaking of which, Obama should win that crown from Buchanan, the WPE one, that is.

Keeping it as brief as I can, that Panic, and Buchanan's anemic response, caused the final shift in the electoral map that paved the way for a Repblican North, and a divided Democrat South, which then ushered in Lincoln and the Republicans in 1860, and tripped the Civil War. It was Buchanan's home state. PA, that delivered the biggest FU to him in the '58 midterms. NJ shifted big too, but not like PA. Both had significant manufacturing bases, got killed in the Panic, and took it out on Buchanan. Rightfully so, as he was a do-nothing waste. The '58 midterms, to include the PA State Legislature, were the biggest swing in the history of the Republic, by one state, from one party to another. Put another way, PA flipped the biggest bird to a sitting party in our nation's history. To the then worst President ever.

History repeats, dontcha know :wink:


Never with Liberal and Progressive History.....that is a daily changing Work of Art. :wink: :laugh:

Shoot the Goose
05-16-2012, 07:25 PM
Never with Liberal and Progressive History.....that is a daily changing Work of Art. :wink: :laugh:

LOL ... yeah, it is :laugh: Kind of like "crapping a masterpiece".

Of those early polling states, NC and VA and PA should frame it for us. FL is one hour later, as the panhandle is Central TIme Zone.

Gotta throw the Marxist inept Community Organizer out :afro:. So far that we never see him again. Then we have to hope that those who support him snap out of their funk, and become contributing Americans again.

MMC
05-16-2012, 07:52 PM
I am not a big Romney fan.....but he has to start relooping Obama's own words back at him. Plus hitting on how he was trying to Brow beat the SCOTUS with that bullshit unelected comment. (It's called check and balance Constitutional Attorney). Then loop in that Help me to transform America.

We see the play.....transform American citizens into the Global Citizens of the World.

Trinnity
05-16-2012, 08:04 PM
Getting a little off topic Trin, and my apologies. That's okay, baby doll, you can rub my back.

Conley
05-16-2012, 08:05 PM
Has Obama come out in favor of cross-species bird-bird relations?! :shocked: :grin:

Trinnity
05-16-2012, 08:07 PM
seeing that I live in colorado and have a chance to check the pulse of sentiments here, Obama will not carry Colorado, most of the folks I have talked to have had it with him. they would vote for their local dog catcher before pulling the lever for that toolReally? (I hope so)


I thought CO was liberal.

Conley
05-16-2012, 08:08 PM
Really? (I hope so)


I thought CO was liberal.

CO went to Bush both times.

Trinnity
05-16-2012, 08:12 PM
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that more Americans are getting smarter about politics - with the internet - and that will contribute towards Obama's defeat. We've been just about overrun with morons in this country because the schools are not bothering with history, government, and economics.
We'll see.

Conley
05-16-2012, 08:18 PM
I wish Americans were getting smarter about politics...unfortunately I just don't see it. Obama may be defeated but Romney's policies won't be much of a difference. Both parties serve the same interests and the American people are not a priority.

Trinnity
05-16-2012, 08:25 PM
I see Obama as such a threat to our fiscal survival (God, man...5 trillion in 3 and half years) and our personal autonomy, that getting him out...see my siggy.

ramone
05-16-2012, 08:44 PM
People are just not going to come out like they did for BO in 2008. Now will they be excited about Romney...?

I seriously doubt it D, I'm really concerned that this one will go down to the wire and could go either way. In the end really it doesn't make much difference because they are both the same. A faster downfall of the republic or a shorter one. I prefer the shorter path of pain myself.

Conley
05-16-2012, 08:45 PM
A bullet to the head or a bullet to the gut. What a choice.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 08:47 PM
I've been thinking along the same lines as Ramone.

ramone
05-16-2012, 08:50 PM
A bullet to the head or a bullet to the gut. What a choice.

Exactly, slow and painful or fast and kinda less ..........painful anyway.

wingrider
05-16-2012, 08:51 PM
Really? (I hope so)


I thought CO was liberal. no not so much just the major centers, Denver , Boulder and a couple of others. my county is 75 percent or so republican,

wingrider
05-16-2012, 08:53 PM
A bullet to the head or a bullet to the gut. What a choice. yep.. no matter which choice we make it still is gonna kill ya.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 08:57 PM
I'm not thinking so much in terms of the end but of a new beginning.

ramone
05-16-2012, 09:00 PM
I've been thinking along the same lines as Ramone.

It's not us who will suffer, it's our children and grandchildren. And for years, our parents would never allowed something like this to happen. Socialization of this country will happen faster than anybody thinks. It's been in the works for too long.

Mister D
05-16-2012, 09:34 PM
It's not us who will suffer, it's our children and grandchildren. And for years, our parents would never allowed something like this to happen. Socialization of this country will happen faster than anybody thinks. It's been in the works for too long.

I don't think so. If things continue along the same path a break up is more likely, IMO.

MMC
05-16-2012, 09:37 PM
I agree with D on that.....to many divisions. Break up will take place faster than what they thought.

ramone
05-16-2012, 09:44 PM
I don't think so. If things continue along the same path a break up is more likely, IMO.

Could be and that is the best option aside from responsible governing, and we know that ain't gonna happen. A quick breakup and choosing of sides and factions is better than the option we have now.

A total regroup and restructure would be important. Be that in a small group or not.

Trinnity
05-17-2012, 07:58 AM
It matters a lot to me. I have two teenaged sons, and I'll fight for them.

coolwalker
05-21-2012, 12:41 PM
(great article, read more at the link)

This just confirms my earlier proclamation (elsewhere) that NC is not a swing state, and that Obama's support is a house of cards.
These numbers will hold. The race will tighten come November, but I still predict Obama will lose.

What about other swing states? I'm looking at Ohio and Florida as important states in this race.

Obama's reelection will live or die on the economy and jobs. But his policies have inhibited the growth of both. Now that's social justice.

What are your thoughts on how the race is shaping up?

People think NC is hick because it's in the south and will blindly follow the dems...well they are wrong and also watch for Virginia to go for Romney...Obama is his own worse enemy and proves it daily. I can't wait until the Marxist-Expansionist is back in Chi-Town.

Conley
05-21-2012, 04:02 PM
Yes, it seems to me too that NC and VA could both easily go GOP this time around.

MMC
05-21-2012, 06:30 PM
Yes, it seems to me too that NC and VA could both easily go GOP this time around.

I am not sure about Virginia.....NC, yes. Indiana, yes. New Mexico, yes.

pjohns
05-21-2012, 10:22 PM
This just confirms my earlier proclamation (elsewhere) that NC is not a swing state, and that Obama's support is a house of cards.

I am currently in my analytical mode; so I am trying, very hard, to view this matter as objectively as possible.

Still, I just cannot see how President Obama might replicate his 2008 showing in North Carolina, and win the Tar Heel State again. The recent vote against gay marriage there (I think it was about 61 percent against, to 39 percent for) may have served as a proxy for this change.

And I really doubt that President Obama can put Humpty Dumpty back together again, and benefit from an enegized coalition of the young and the disaffected, as he did four years ago.

Indiana is probably set to return to the Republican column also. And I would guess that Virginia is a Leaning Republican state (although the pro-Democratic proclivities of northern Virginia make this state less than a certainty).

As political analyst Dick Morris recently noted, no person has ever won the American presidency without adding at least one state to his Won column that he lost the first time around; but it is unlikely that now-President Obama will do that, as both Missouri and Arizona (his two best bets) are probably out of reach for him now...

Conley
05-21-2012, 10:24 PM
I have to think even with the expansion of federal government that NOVA will be less blue than it was last time around. Popular vote I think Obama still has strength but looking at the electoral college there are a lot of potential losses. Imagine if the GOP had a stronger candidate than Romney.

roadmaster
05-21-2012, 10:35 PM
I live in NC and I am not sure and the economy is really bad here. I know he won't get SC

Trinnity
05-22-2012, 12:18 AM
As political analyst Dick Morris recently noted, no person has ever won the American presidency without adding at least one state to his Won column that he lost the first time around; but it is unlikely that now-President Obama will do that, as both Missouri and Arizona (his two best bets) are probably out of reach for him now...I like Morris and his opinions count with me.
Hi pjohns. I hope all is well at your house....glad to see ya here.

Trinnity
05-22-2012, 12:25 AM
I live in NC and I am not sure and the economy is really bad here. I know he won't get SCI'm sure enough for both of us. NC will not be in Obama's win column.

wingrider
05-22-2012, 12:32 AM
colorado is looking doubtful at the present time

pjohns
05-23-2012, 12:00 AM
I have to think even with the expansion of federal government that NOVA will be less blue than it was last time around.

You may be onto something here, Conley.

I learned, on FNC, just today (or yesterday; it is now on the borderline), that northern Virginia has lost 35,000 registered voters, net, since 2008...

roadmaster
05-23-2012, 12:04 AM
I'm sure enough for both of us. NC will not be in Obama's win column.




I hope you are right. Mitt had better not flip if he does get into office.

wingrider
05-23-2012, 12:05 AM
i wonder though if part of this is people relocating and not getting re-registered yet.

MMC
05-23-2012, 06:32 AM
I hope you are right. Mitt had better not flip if he does get into office.



I think we all know it will be inevitable RM. :undecided:

pjohns
05-24-2012, 12:10 AM
I hope you are right. Mitt had better not flip if he does get into office.

I would guess that Mitt Romney, if elected, will govern from the center-right; if not as a matter of conviction (and I really do not believe that he is a principled conservative), then as a matter of expediency. After all, he would doubtless prefer to establish a record on which he could run, confidently, for re-election in 2016.

Trinnity
05-24-2012, 09:54 AM
Dammit, Cali has a lot of conservative people, yet with it's 55 electoral votes, it's skewed to the left by the mass populations in the cities.
No state should have that many electoral votes. North and Sough Cali anyone?

Conley
05-24-2012, 10:10 AM
Dammit, Cali has a lot of conservative people, yet with it's 55 electoral votes, it's skewed to the left by the mass populations in the cities.
No state should have that many electoral votes. North and Sough Cali anyone?

Yep, splitting the state has been talked about a lot out here but I never considered the electoral college implications. It won't happen but it's a very interesting thought. That would really give Republicans an advantage.

Conley
05-24-2012, 10:21 AM
53 seats in the House too :wink:

Trinnity
05-24-2012, 10:57 AM
It's not just that; giving the R's an advantage. It already does give the dems an advantage. That in itself is not fair.
I know it's not gonna happen.

Conley
05-24-2012, 10:59 AM
It's not just that; giving the R's an advantage. It already does give the dems an advantage. That in itself is not fair.
I know it's not gonna happen.

Fair and politics often don't go together...many would argue the entire electoral college is unfair, especially Gore supporters. :grin:

pjohns
05-24-2012, 11:06 PM
Dammit, Cali has a lot of conservative people, yet with it's 55 electoral votes, it's skewed to the left by the mass populations in the cities.
No state should have that many electoral votes. North and Sough Cali anyone?

It is my understanding that, in the early 1940s, California almost split in two, with northern California (and southern Oregon) set to form the new state of "Jefferson." However, then the bombing of Pearl Harbor came along, and the momentum in favor of this division ceased.

Here is a link to the subject: http://www.jeffersonstate.com/

wingrider
05-24-2012, 11:39 PM
It is my understanding that, in the early 1940s, California almost split in two, with northern California (and southern Oregon) set to form the new state of "Jefferson." However, then the bombing of Pearl Harbor came along, and the momentum in favor of this division ceased.

Here is a link to the subject: http://www.jeffersonstate.com/ thanks this is a piece of history that I had not heard before... interesting article thanks for posting