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IMPress Polly
11-01-2014, 08:04 AM
I pride myself on the accuracy of my election predictions, which I've been doing since 2006. Thus far I've maintained a pretty good record for accuracy and aim to continue that this year. What follows is my *official* prediction of the outcome of the 2014 U.S. elections on November 4th (i.e. Tuesday). I have sought to get as specific as humanly possible.

THE SENATE:

Current Scenario:

53 Democrats
45 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

(EFFECTIVELY: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans)

36 seats are up for election. Of those 36 seats, 21 are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Democrats will (in effect*) gain no new Senate seats this year. Republicans will gain eight: more than enough to retake overall control of the Senate. The new seats the Republicans will gain are:

1. West Virginia
2. Iowa
3. Arkansas
4. Louisiana
5. South Dakota
6. Colorado
7. Montana
8. Alaska

*The incumbent Republican in Kansas will lose to independent Greg Orman. However, Orman -- a Wall Street centrist who opposes the Affordable Care Act (but also opposes repealing it), supports budget austerity, gun control, abortion rights, immigration reform, nominally environmentalist positions, and campaign finance reform (including the repeal of Citizens United) -- has pledged to caucus with whichever party wins control of the Senate. That will clearly be the Republican Party. Thus I don't count this as a potential pick-up for the Democrats.

FINAL BALANCE:

Republicans: 52
Democrats: 45
Independents: 3 <-- Two caucus with Democrats, but the new third will caucus with Republicans.

EFFECTIVELY:

Republicans: 53 <-- Winners
Democrats: 45



THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:

Current Scenario:

Republicans: 234
Democrats: 199
Vacant Seats: 2

My Prediction:

Republicans will see a net gain of 9 House seats.

FINAL BALANCE:

Republicans: 243 <-- Winners
Democrats: 192



STATE GOVERNORSHIPS:

Current balance of state governorships:

29 Republicans
21 Democrats

Fully 36 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the Congressional elections on November 4th, out of which 22 seats are presently held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats, which suggests that, in theory, Democrats should have a mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Republicans will gain the governorship of Arkansas, Massachusetts, and possibly Illinois and Connecticut. Since I can predict the outcome of only two of these races, I will split the difference on the remaining two and guesstimate that one will wind up switching to Republican control. It's impossible to say which though. So, in other words, Republicans, I am predicting, will pick up three new state governorships and Arkansas and Massachusetts will be two of those three. Meanwhile, Democrats will gain the governorship of Maine, Pennsylvania, and possibly Florida and Kansas, between which I will split the difference with my prediction the same way I did with the Republican pickups. In other words, I am predicting that Democrats will pick up three new state governorships and that Maine and Pennsylvania will be two of those three. Thus, I predict that there will be no net change in the number of governorships held by the respective parties.

FINAL BALANCE:

29 Republicans
21 Democrats

No net change.



TO SUM IT ALL UP:

This is unquestionably a Republican wave year. Foreign policy problems and two different migration "crises" (the refugee crisis and the pointless ebola panic) have dominated the headlines since the spring, all of which play into the hands of Republicans by demoralizing Democrats, causing Democrats to distance themselves from the president. Republicans demand a more militaristic foreign policy to respond to ISIS aggression in Iraq and Syria and insist upon the unqualified (or at least less qualified) deportation of refugees, thus appearing more nationalistic, while at the same time demanding a ban on travel from West Africa over ebola (:rollseyes:), thus appealing to the more paranoid, racist, anti-immigrant sentiments that the news media is whipping up amongst the populace. From all of these things, Republicans benefit. They will easily win control of the Senate, thus setting us up for a major impeachment crisis in the coming period, as the GOP's base demands Obama's removal from office intensely and the party may now have the ability to impeach him.

After this election, Republicans will control every major government institution in this country except for the presidency, including both chambers of Congress, the Supreme Court, and a majority of state governorships and state legislatures, not to mention a large majority of American public offices overall.

donttread
11-01-2014, 08:50 AM
Impressive..... Polly. You must do some serious research. My sincere question is how will this make anything different?

Peter1469
11-01-2014, 08:57 AM
We will see if there is any effective difference in the sort of legislation passed.

PolWatch
11-01-2014, 08:59 AM
anyone wanna bet we won't see anything except some more chest beating about who is in charge?

IMPress Polly
11-01-2014, 09:00 AM
The biggest practical difference I'd predict would be a possible impeachment attempt. Which could backfire like the last one did.

PolWatch
11-01-2014, 09:08 AM
The biggest practical difference I'd predict would be a possible impeachment attempt. Which could backfire like the last one did.

I'm fairly confident that will be their first item...which means we will see 2 years of wasted time and money...with nothing accomplished. At some point they might look at the vp and wonder..why are we doing this?

donttread
11-01-2014, 09:17 AM
The biggest practical difference I'd predict would be a possible impeachment attempt. Which could backfire like the last one did.

Anything to distract us so we will never judge them on their collective abject failure

Green Arrow
11-01-2014, 04:46 PM
I don't think I'd disagree with your predictions. I will say, however, that Sen. Angus King has also said he would caucus with whichever party gains the majority, so in this scenario he would start caucusing with Republicans.

Peter1469
11-01-2014, 04:57 PM
The biggest practical difference I'd predict would be a possible impeachment attempt. Which could backfire like the last one did.

I was referring to legislation that affects the people.

gamewell45
11-01-2014, 05:03 PM
I pride myself on the accuracy of my election predictions, which I've been doing since 2006. Thus far I've maintained a pretty good record for accuracy and aim to continue that this year. What follows is my *official* prediction of the outcome of the 2014 U.S. elections on November 4th (i.e. Tuesday). I have sought to get as specific as humanly possible.

THE SENATE:

Current Scenario:

53 Democrats
45 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

(EFFECTIVELY: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans)

36 seats are up for election. Of those 36 seats, 21 are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Democrats will (in effect*) gain no new Senate seats this year. Republicans will gain eight: more than enough to retake overall control of the Senate. The new seats the Republicans will gain are:

1. West Virginia
2. Iowa
3. Arkansas
4. Louisiana
5. South Dakota
6. Colorado
7. Montana
8. Alaska

*The incumbent Republican in Kansas will lose to independent Greg Orman. However, Orman -- a Wall Street centrist who opposes the Affordable Care Act (but also opposes repealing it), supports budget austerity, gun control, abortion rights, immigration reform, nominally environmentalist positions, and campaign finance reform (including the repeal of Citizens United) -- has pledged to caucus with whichever party wins control of the Senate. That will clearly be the Republican Party. Thus I don't count this as a potential pick-up for the Democrats.

FINAL BALANCE:

Republicans: 52
Democrats: 45
Independents: 3 <-- Two caucus with Democrats, but the new third will caucus with Republicans.

EFFECTIVELY:

Republicans: 53 <-- Winners
Democrats: 45



THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:

Current Scenario:

Republicans: 234
Democrats: 199
Vacant Seats: 2

My Prediction:

Republicans will see a net gain of 9 House seats.

FINAL BALANCE:

Republicans: 243 <-- Winners
Democrats: 192



STATE GOVERNORSHIPS:

Current balance of state governorships:

29 Republicans
21 Democrats

Fully 36 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the Congressional elections on November 4th, out of which 22 seats are presently held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats, which suggests that, in theory, Democrats should have a mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Republicans will gain the governorship of Arkansas, Massachusetts, and possibly Illinois and Connecticut. Since I can predict the outcome of only two of these races, I will split the difference on the remaining two and guesstimate that one will wind up switching to Republican control. It's impossible to say which though. So, in other words, Republicans, I am predicting, will pick up three new state governorships and Arkansas and Massachusetts will be two of those three. Meanwhile, Democrats will gain the governorship of Maine, Pennsylvania, and possibly Florida and Kansas, between which I will split the difference with my prediction the same way I did with the Republican pickups. In other words, I am predicting that Democrats will pick up three new state governorships and that Maine and Pennsylvania will be two of those three. Thus, I predict that there will be no net change in the number of governorships held by the respective parties.

FINAL BALANCE:

29 Republicans
21 Democrats

No net change.



TO SUM IT ALL UP:

This is unquestionably a Republican wave year. Foreign policy problems and two different migration "crises" (the refugee crisis and the pointless ebola panic) have dominated the headlines since the spring, all of which play into the hands of Republicans by demoralizing Democrats, causing Democrats to distance themselves from the president. Republicans demand a more militaristic foreign policy to respond to ISIS aggression in Iraq and Syria and insist upon the unqualified (or at least less qualified) deportation of refugees, thus appearing more nationalistic, while at the same time demanding a ban on travel from West Africa over ebola (:rollseyes:), thus appealing to the more paranoid, racist, anti-immigrant sentiments that the news media is whipping up amongst the populace. From all of these things, Republicans benefit. They will easily win control of the Senate, thus setting us up for a major impeachment crisis in the coming period, as the GOP's base demands Obama's removal from office intensely and the party may now have the ability to impeach him.

After this election, Republicans will control every major government institution in this country except for the presidency, including both chambers of Congress, the Supreme Court, and a majority of state governorships and state legislatures, not to mention a large majority of American public offices overall.


I'm sure that you'll admit that the best poll will be conducted on Election Day. That'll be the real proof of the pudding. :)

IMPress Polly
11-02-2014, 06:38 AM
Green Arrow wrote:
I don't think I'd disagree with your predictions. I will say, however, that Sen. Angus King has also said he would caucus with whichever party gains the majority, so in this scenario he would start caucusing with Republicans.

Are you serious? Angus King?? Wow. I'm underwhelmed by that bit of information that I hadn't previously known. ...In THAT case, yeah I have no choice but to agree with you and amend my prediction accordingly:

As a result of what you just highlighted, I now predict that, in effect, the Republican Caucus in the Senate will, when all is said and done and the dust has settled, have 54 members, not 53, almost completely reversing the Senate's current balance of power.

Common
11-02-2014, 07:15 AM
I agree with Polly that the GOP will make gains, what the numbers will be I have no idea. I do believe that this is NOT a validation of right wing politics, this is a anti Obama vote and will be shortlived.

Peter1469
11-02-2014, 08:51 AM
I agree with Polly that the GOP will make gains, what the numbers will be I have no idea. I do believe that this is NOT a validation of right wing politics, this is a anti Obama vote and will be shortlived.

You likely won't see drastic changes.

Mac-7
11-02-2014, 09:40 AM
Unless Poly can communicate with the dead there is no way to know how many democrats will vote.

so some races that look good for the Repubs may be disappointments.

IMPress Polly
11-02-2014, 02:02 PM
Oh you'll learn, Mac-7. You'll learn how predictable these things really are in a couple of days. :wink:

Mac-7
11-03-2014, 05:11 AM
Oh you'll learn, Mac-7. You'll learn how predictable these things really are in a couple of days. :wink:

Is that why pollsters over sample democrats?

to allow for cheating?

Ransom
11-03-2014, 09:50 AM
I agree with Polly that the GOP will make gains, what the numbers will be I have no idea. I do believe that this is NOT a validation of right wing politics, this is a anti Obama vote and will be shortlived.

But Obama pushed Leftists policies Common. So where this might not validate right wing politics, if the Repubs win, does it at least invalidate left wing politics?

Oops.

Ransom
11-03-2014, 09:56 AM
You likely won't see drastic changes.

Depends where you're talking about. Within the Dem Nation? I think you very well might see drastic changes. If the GOP wins...a big if....Harry Reid sits down. I think you may see a continental shelf change in the Democrat Party. There may be those who would like to continue the war on women, all Repubs are racists, divisive politics that won them the 2012 Presidential elections, but I know many Dems who don't favor that strat with an unpopular lame duck President going into 2016. I think you my see a shift in strat, I believe the Dems will start laying out a platform rather than trying to deflect to Bush/Cheney or using negative campaigning. I don't think you'll see changes should it remain as is....but if the Republicans can pull off the shocker and take the Senate.....some Dems will favor shifting strategies. Big shifts too.

Peter1469
11-03-2014, 03:53 PM
I am talking about the general trend of increased government control over our lives.

Cigar
11-03-2014, 04:04 PM
I predict a huge Clown Show between the TeaBaggers and Moderates :laugh:

birddog
11-03-2014, 04:17 PM
I predict a huge Clown Show between the TeaBaggers and Moderates :laugh:

You wish!!

The Tea Party is mostly simply a conservative part of the Republican Party. There are also Tea Party members who are Democrats. The Republicans are more "big tent" than you realize, so you will likely be disappointed.

PolWatch
11-03-2014, 05:40 PM
interesting article on what will change if the repubs win:

'That would make it extremely foolish for Republicans to do anything that threatens the economy. When the government shut down last year (http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/government-shutdown-up-to-speed/) for 16 days because Congress wouldn’t pass spending legislation, Americans blamed Republicans over Democrats (http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/10/22/National-Politics/Polling/release_272.xml) by a margin of nearly 2 to 1, and the GOP’s favorability ratings (http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/10/22/National-Politics/Polling/release_272.xml) sank to record lows. Republicans also got the blame (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/us/politics/05poll.html) when Congress waited until the last second to approve a new federal borrowing limit in 2011, risking default on U.S. debt and sending the stock market into a six-month tailspin. If such antics occur while Republicans control both houses of Congress, it could be political suicide for the party.

Republicans show signs of getting the message, with new House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy saying the GOP goal in 2015 will be “restoring competence in government (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/kevin-mccarthy-agenda-congress-112109.html).” Even Sen. Ted Cruz, the Republican bomb-thrower and de facto envoy to the Tea Party, has proposed a serious legislative agenda that focuses more on accomplishing Republican goals (http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/19/ted-cruz-republicans-election-congress-priorities-jobs-obamacare-column/17267261/) than thwarting Democratic ones."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-way-the-economy-will-win-if-republicans-sweep-the-midterms-165140151.html

Common Sense
11-03-2014, 05:42 PM
You wish!!

The Tea Party is mostly simply a conservative part of the Republican Party. There are also Tea Party members who are Democrats. The Republicans are more "big tent" than you realize, so you will likely be disappointed.

Can you name a Tea Party Democrat?

Mac-7
11-03-2014, 05:47 PM
interesting article on what will change if the repubs win:

'That would make it extremely foolish for Republicans to do anything that threatens the economy. When the government shut down last year (http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/government-shutdown-up-to-speed/) for 16 days because Congress wouldn’t pass spending legislation, Americans blamed Republicans over Democrats (http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/10/22/National-Politics/Polling/release_272.xml) by a margin of nearly 2 to 1, and the GOP’s favorability ratings (http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/10/22/National-Politics/Polling/release_272.xml) sank to record lows. Republicans also got the blame (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/us/politics/05poll.html) when Congress waited until the last second to approve a new federal borrowing limit in 2011, risking default on U.S. debt and sending the stock market into a six-month tailspin. If such antics occur while Republicans control both houses of Congress, it could be political suicide for the party.

Republicans show signs of getting the message, with new House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy saying the GOP goal in 2015 will be “restoring competence in government (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/kevin-mccarthy-agenda-congress-112109.html).” Even Sen. Ted Cruz, the Republican bomb-thrower and de facto envoy to the Tea Party, has proposed a serious legislative agenda that focuses more on accomplishing Republican goals (http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/19/ted-cruz-republicans-election-congress-priorities-jobs-obamacare-column/17267261/) than thwarting Democratic ones."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-way-the-economy-will-win-if-republicans-sweep-the-midterms-165140151.html

Obama and Harry Reid shut down the government but clueless democrats and independents don't know it because the pro Obama lib media forgot to mention it.

Ransom
11-03-2014, 08:34 PM
I am talking about the general trend of increased government control over our lives.

You'll see by turnout tomorrow where less people vote than don't why any such 'control' exists.

Green Arrow
11-03-2014, 10:26 PM
Can you name a Tea Party Democrat?

I could have told you about a lot of Tea Party Democrats back when the movement first started as a non-partisan movement.

Now, though? I can't think of a single one.

PolWatch
11-03-2014, 10:38 PM
I could have told you about a lot of Tea Party Democrats back when the movement first started as a non-partisan movement.

Now, though? I can't think of a single one.

I've never been a member of any party but as someone who was interested when the tea party movement first began, I can tell ya...I'm standing out here alone....waiting for someone to listen and do something besides sell out to the highest bidder...

Mac-7
11-04-2014, 12:43 AM
I've never been a member of any party but as someone who was interested when the tea party movement first began, I can tell ya...I'm standing out here alone....waiting for someone to listen and do something besides sell out to the highest bidder...

Its too bad you are just a bystander.

the Tea Party movement for smaller government could have used your help.

IMPress Polly
11-06-2014, 07:55 AM
Let it be known that I correctly predicted the exact number of U.S. Senate seats the Republicans would pick up! (Although notably I had expected that one of those seats would be Louisiana instead of North Carolina.) I also correctly predicted the outcome of 98.85% of House races that took place this year (430 out of 435). Whereas I'd predicted the Republicans would gain 9 House seats, thus producing a new balance of 243 Republicans to 192 Democrats, in reality the GOP picked up 14 seats, thus producing a balance of 248 Republicans to 187 Democrats. In terms of gubernatorial races, I had predicted zero net change. In reality, as of the current count here early on November 6th, Republicans gained two additional governorships, while Democrats lost three. (The gubernatorial race in Alaska is currently undecided, but it appears that an independent candidate will win that race.) In sum total, my overall election prediction this year was 98% accurate: an improvement over the accuracy of my 2012 prediction (which was more like 96% accurate).

I used a different method this time in making my prediction for the Senate races, and it helped! The discrepancy in degrees of accuracy between my Senate predictions and my House and gubernatorial predictions lies in that for the former I was able to use a probability-based approach based on betting data. Since such data was unavailable for the House and gubernatorial races, I had to instead rely on my traditional methodology for those, which essentially is just to go with the predictions of the average expert who makes political predictions for a living...or with whatever expert was willing to actually make a prediction for a given race anyway. (Most "experts" are lazy and just list the closer races as "tossups" instead of indicating any sort of likelihood as to who will win. It's the easy way to "earn" one's pay without actually doing much work.) Larry Sabato always tries to predict the outcome of every race, so my House and gubernatorial predictions are disproportionately influenced by his...which I've learned is kind of a bad thing because what I've learned here is that his predictions are only so accurate. He misled me on a number of races in 2012 and here again as well. He errs on the conservative side, by which I mean that he tends to predict less change in any given cycle than actually occurs. Barring the introduction of proper betting on the outcomes of House and gubernatorial races in the future, I will thus have to learn to weight his predictions in a more liberal direction and predict somewhat more change than whatever he does. Perhaps 30% more would be safe. Probability-based predictions are definitely the most reliable is what I've learned here. I observed that to be the case after the 2012 elections and thought I'd test that theory by going with a probability-based approach myself this time as much as possible, and sure enough my suspicions have been confirmed: predicting based on what large numbers of people are willing to bet money on works better than just relying on the opinions of small groups of overpaid experts who simply rely on their instinctive analysis of poll data.

Anyway, congratulations to our forum Republicans and GOP sympathizers on your victory! It can't be said that I'm excited about the outcome of this year's U.S. elections personally, but...you know, I did more or less see it coming. :wink:

Green Arrow
11-06-2014, 08:01 AM
Let it be known that I correctly predicted the exact number of U.S. Senate seats the Republicans would pick up! (Although notably I had expected that one of those seats would be Louisiana instead of North Carolina.) I also correctly predicted the outcome of 98.85% of House races that took place this year (430 out of 435). Whereas I'd predicted the Republicans would gain 9 House seats, thus producing a new balance of 243 Republicans to 192 Democrats, in reality the GOP picked up 14 seats, thus producing a balance of 248 Republicans to 187 Democrats. In terms of gubernatorial races, I had predicted zero net change. In reality, as of the current count here early on November 6th, Republicans gained two additional governorships, while Democrats lost three. (The gubernatorial race in Alaska is currently undecided, but it appears that an independent candidate will win that race.) In sum total, my overall election prediction this year was 98% accurate: an improvement over the accuracy of my 2012 prediction (which was more like 96% accurate).

I used a different method this time in making my prediction for the Senate races, and it helped! The discrepancy in degrees of accuracy between my Senate predictions and my House and gubernatorial predictions lies in that for the former I was able to use a probability-based approach based on betting data. Since such data was unavailable for the House and gubernatorial races, I had to instead rely on my traditional methodology for those, which essentially is just to go with the predictions of the average expert who makes political predictions for a living...or with whatever expert was willing to actually make a prediction for a given race anyway. (Most "experts" are lazy and just list the closer races as "tossups" instead of indicating any sort of likelihood as to who will win. It's the easy way to "earn" one's pay without actually doing much work.) Larry Sabato always tries to predict the outcome of every race, so my House and gubernatorial predictions are disproportionately influenced by his...which I've learned is kind of a bad thing because what I've learned here is that his predictions are only so accurate. He misled me on a number of races in 2012 and here again as well. He errs on the conservative side, by which I mean that he tends to predict less change in any given cycle than actually occurs. Barring the introduction of proper betting on the outcomes of House and gubernatorial races in the future, I will thus have to learn to weight his predictions in a more liberal direction and predict somewhat more change (perhaps 30% more would be safe) than whatever he does. Probability-based predictions are definitely the most reliable is what I've learned here. I observed that to be the case after the 2012 elections and thought I'd test that theory by going with a probability-based approach myself this time as much as possible, and sure enough my suspicions have been confirmed: predicting based on what people are willing to bet on works better than just relying on the opinions of small groups of overpaid experts who simply rely on their instinctive analysis of poll data.

Anyway, congratulations to our forum Republicans and GOP sympathizers on your victory! It can't be said that I'm excited about the outcome of this year's U.S. elections personally, but...you know, I did more or less see it coming. :wink:

Angus King betrayed me amd my typical predictive accuracy. Otherwise, I was about as spot-on as you. Only surprise was Virginia, and Mark Warner held his seat in the end, so it doesn't count.

Peter1469
11-06-2014, 08:20 AM
Warner should have won by more....