The Islamic State is failing

[Peter1469]

The Islamic State is failing (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-failing-at-being-a-state/2014/12/24/bfbf8962-8092-11e4-b936-f3afab0155a7_story.html?hpid=z1)

Not a hard prediction I made last summer when the Islamic State declared its new nation. These guys are going to moderate, or disappear. Either way what we know as the Islamic State won't be recognizable this time next year.


The Islamic State’s vaunted exercise in state-building appears to be crumbling as living conditions deteriorate across the territories under its control, exposing the shortcomings of a group that devotes most of its energies to fighting battles and enforcing strict rules.

Services are collapsing, prices are soaring, and medicines are scarce in towns and cities across the “caliphate” proclaimed in Iraq and Syria by the Islamic State, residents say, belying the group’s boasts that it is delivering a model form of governance for Muslims.



***


The Islamic State “is not this invincible monster that can control everything and defeat everyone,” said an activist in the eastern Syrian city of Deir al-Zour, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the ineffectual delivery of services there.


“The whole idea that it is well organized and an administrative entity is wrong. It is just an image.”

[ace's n 8's]

The Islamic State is failing (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-failing-at-being-a-state/2014/12/24/bfbf8962-8092-11e4-b936-f3afab0155a7_story.html?hpid=z1)

Not a hard prediction I made last summer when the Islamic State declared its new nation. These guys are going to moderate, or disappear. Either way what we know as the Islamic State won't be recognizable this time next year.



***
I certainly hope your right, something tells me, that your not.

Has there been, in recent history, any radical Jihadist Organization that have ever been dismantled,on their own?

You know just as well as I do, this article that you are reciting from, is just a 'feely good' article, that has no substance or teeth to it.

They have the ability to adjust and do what is necessary to survive.

[Peter1469]

How many radical jihadist organization had countries of their own? The Taliban perhaps.

No substance in the article?


Those who could afford to flee areas controlled by the group have done so, disproportionately including the professionals and technocrats whose skills are needed to run government services.

You are not going to fix modern infrastructure if the engineers take off because they don't want to be a 7th century troglodyte.




I certainly hope your right, something tells me, that your not.

Has there been, in recent history, any radical Jihadist Organization that have ever been dismantled,on their own?

You know just as well as I do, this article that you are reciting from, is just a 'feely good' article, that has no substance or teeth to it.

[Mac-7]

That's great news Peter.

Do you predict that the local islams will vote the crazy isis beheaders out of office in the next election?

[Peter1469]

That's great news Peter.

Do you predict that the local islams will vote the crazy isis beheaders out of office in the next election?

Nope. That at some point the Sunni tribes will turn on them, you know, like they did to the Islamic State's predecessor organization- al Qaeda in Iraq.

[Mac-7]

Nope. That at some point the Sunni tribes will turn on them, you know, like they did to the Islamic State's predecessor organization- al Qaeda in Iraq.

You mean like the iraqi's turned on saddam and threw him out without any assistance from the US?

[Peter1469]

You mean like the iraqi's turned on saddam and threw him out without any assistance from the US?

No. What I said above indicates what I meant. You are getting issues confused by bringing Saddam up.

[Mac-7]

No. What I said above indicates what I meant. You are getting issues confused by bringing Saddam up.

Not at all.

You are thinking like an American who would rebel if obumer failed to provide electricity and other modern utilities instead of a crazy islam who is used to living in primitive conditions.

But even if the local people objected to Isis there is nothing they can do about it.

[donttread]

The many children of our imperialism are so hatful and violent. I wonder why?

[Mac-7]

The many children of our imperialism are so hatful and violent. I wonder why?

They live in violent and backward cultures.

[donttread]

They live in violent and backward cultures.

Their cultures are far more backward and hateful then they were in the 1960's. Now why do you suppose that is?

[Mac-7]

Their cultures are far more backward and hateful then they were in the 1960's. Now why do you suppose that is?

Thats your opinion.

But the bloody Arabs have been beheading infidels since Mohamed founded the movement.

The Muslim brotherhood goes back to the 1920s and has evolved over the years into Al quieda, boco haram and Isis.

[donttread]

Thats your opinion.

But the bloody Arabs have been beheading infidels since Mohamed founded the movement.

The Muslim brotherhood goes back to the 1920s and has evolved over the years into Al quieda, boco haram and Isis.

First look at some pictures from Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan from 50 years ago vs. now and then tell me how our intervention has "helped"
Secondly , as I have said before and no one has been able to refute. Their attacks on Americans FOLLOWED our fucking with them, every time

[ace's n 8's]

First look at some pictures from Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan from 50 years ago vs. now and then tell me how our intervention has "helped"
Secondly , as I have said before and no one has been able to refute. Their attacks on Americans FOLLOWED our $#@!ing with them, every timeI agree, this nation will NEVER alter the Middle East, they will need to be altered from within,case in point, ISRAEL.

[Peter1469]

Not at all.

You are thinking like an American who would rebel if obumer failed to provide electricity and other modern utilities instead of a crazy islam who is used to living in primitive conditions.

But even if the local people objected to Isis there is nothing they can do about it.

Have you been to Iraq? Most are not
a crazy islam [sic] who is used to living in primitive conditions. Especially in the big cities like Mosul.

If the local people overthrew al Qaeda in Iraq why not the Islamic State?

[Peter1469]

I agree, this nation will NEVER alter the Middle East, they will need to be altered from within,case in point, ISRAEL.

The West completely altered the Middle East at the end of WWI. What we see now (the Arab Spring and its aftermath) is the Middle East altering itself.

[Green Arrow]

Anyone intelligent knew that ISIL was just a flame, soon to be burned out. All we really had to do was lock down the Middle East and starve the flame of its oxygen.

[Mac-7]

First look at some pictures from Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan from 50 years ago vs. now and then tell me how our intervention has "helped"
Secondly , as I have said before and no one has been able to refute. Their attacks on Americans FOLLOWED our $#@!ing with them, every time

Iran was a backward country that a young king tried to modernize.

But he was deposed by crazy Muslim clerics some of whom could not even read the Koran they were quoting from.

The taliban and Arab radicals attacked America on 9-11 so they deserved every bomb we dropped on them.

Iraq 50 years ago was a backward nation with a lot of oil.

I think we should have let saddam remain as their dictator because he was a good counterpunch to Iran.

I'm not conceding your idea that we have no business in the Middle East but having it to do over again we could have done it better.

[Mac-7]

If the local people overthrew al Qaeda in Iraq why not the Islamic State?

The locals never overthrew saddam or Al quieda.

America did with some help from them.

[Peter1469]

The locals never overthrew saddam or Al quieda.

America did with some help from them.

Incorrect. al Qaeda in Iraq was primarily overthrown by the Sunni tribes when they stopped supporting them and turned on them.

[Mac-7]

Incorrect. al Qaeda in Iraq was primarily overthrown by the Sunni tribes when they stopped supporting them and turned on them.

You are incorrect.

the US mounted the surge and demonestrate that we could beat the insurgents and the locals threw in with the stronger power.

[Peter1469]

You are incorrect.

the US mounted the surge and demonestrate that we could beat the insurgents and the locals threw in with the stronger power.

You have it incorrect. I posted a long article not long ago about that. I was also in Iraq at the time.

[Polecat]

You have it incorrect. I posted a long article not long ago about that. I was also in Iraq at the time.

You need a valet? I miss traveling a lot.

[PolWatch]

You need a valet? I miss traveling a lot.

Polecat, reporting for duty:
http://www.luxurytraveladvisor.com/files/luxurytraveladvisor/nodes/2013/11080/schoolforbutlers.jpg

[Peter1469]

You need a valet? I miss traveling a lot.

We can't call them valets in the Army. Driver- OK. Don't worry, Humvees are easy to drive. But you might like manning the .50cal instead.

[Polecat]

We can't call them valets in the Army. Driver- OK. Don't worry, Humvees are easy to drive. But you might like manning the .50cal instead.

I have always wanted to bust out on a 50 cal. Back when I was shooting the average price for one round was over $2. Too rich for my blood.

[Peter1469]

I have always wanted to bust out on a 50 cal. Back when I was shooting the average price for one round was over $2. Too rich for my blood.

If you are my "valet", I mean driver, I can get you rounds for free. You just have to follow the rules of engagement before you kill people. OK?

[PolWatch]

If you are my "valet", I mean driver, I can get you rounds for free. You just have to follow the rules of engagement before you kill people. OK?

ya need to make sure he knows how to shine shoes & iron shirts first!

[Polecat]

If you are my "valet", I mean driver, I can get you rounds for free. You just have to follow the rules of engagement before you kill people. OK?

Check. ROE in force. No joy killing. I can do that.

[Peter1469]

ya need to make sure he knows how to shine shoes & iron shirts first!

I don't play the pretty boy soldier. I don't bother with shining boots or ironing shirts in war zones.

[Mac-7]

You have it incorrect. I posted a long article not long ago about that.

You posted an article, huh?

I guess that settles it then.

[texan]

The Islamic State is failing (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-failing-at-being-a-state/2014/12/24/bfbf8962-8092-11e4-b936-f3afab0155a7_story.html?hpid=z1)

Not a hard prediction I made last summer when the Islamic State declared its new nation. These guys are going to moderate, or disappear. Either way what we know as the Islamic State won't be recognizable this time next year.



***


Don't think so............But I hope your right. We just doubled our troops to 3600 or so..........on pace to spend a 1/2 trillion over there. We had better have a plan to keep these guys under control unlike Obama's last plan.....

[Peter1469]

You posted an article, huh?

I guess that settles it then.

I believe that I mentioned in the post that I knew people were not going to read the article because it was long and written at college level.

[Peter1469]

Don't think so............But I hope your right. We just doubled our troops to 3600 or so..........on pace to spend a 1/2 trillion over there. We had better have a plan to keep these guys under control unlike Obama's last plan.....

What would your plan be?

[texan]

I learned in real life and in a classroom setting that office politics will be played whther you participate or withdraw. The same is true in the world. There are good guys and bads guys, I like to think America stands for good. I don't know that many other countries that have done and shared things like we have. I say that not to minimize any other countries contribution. But when there is a problem we generally are the big brother that has to confront the problem. We do make mistakes sometimes and when we do we need to make sure we handle that as well. Iraq was a bad decision, it wasn't a fraud or a big lie it was a bad decision. "We broke it, we own it." We have many of our allies concerned about where we stand and what we will do if the proverbial shit hits the fan.

Another bad decision was pulling out of Iraq ( and lying about the agreement to stay). So was dabling in Lybia, showing weakness to Putin, look at China over that issue, look at N Korea.........This foreign policy has made us weak in the eyes of our enimies and the world. It has made the world more volatile. Maybe Bush had a quick cowboy trigger, but we now have procrastination until a response becomes a none event or never happens. Back to my original comment, these games will be played and if you are not in them you will get burned eventially as you are seeing.

This isn't a lab, it isn't theory, it is the real world.

We have to stabllize Iraq, we have to provide the security needed and we need to be togther on this and if we need to flex our muscles then get it done. You can let the Syrians fight all they want, I would keep them busy fighting each other. Iran cannot have a bomb! Period! There are ways to deal with it but having our backs pissed about negotiations on while we back peddle is assinine!

The best defense is a strong offense. Trust but verify. Don't be afraid to make a mistake, not making them will likely be worse for us.

[Mac-7]

I believe that I mentioned in the post that I knew people were not going to read the article because it was long and written at college level.

I didn't notice and missed it entirely.

But I assume it was written by someone who generally agrees with you on foreign policy.

[Common]

Id love to see it fall, but with its ill believe it when I see it.

[Mac-7]

I learned in real life and in a classroom setting that office politics will be played whther you participate or withdraw. The same is true in the world. There are good guys and bads guys, I like to think America stands for good. I don't know that many other countries that have done and shared things like we have. I say that not to minimize any other countries contribution. But when there is a problem we generally are the big brother that has to confront the problem. We do make mistakes sometimes and when we do we need to make sure we handle that as well. Iraq was a bad decision, it wasn't a fraud or a big lie it was a bad decision. "We broke it, we own it." We have many of our allies concerned about where we stand and what we will do if the proverbial $#@! hits the fan.

Another bad decision was pulling out of Iraq ( and lying about the agreement to stay). So was dabling in Lybia, showing weakness to Putin, look at China over that issue, look at N Korea.........This foreign policy has made us weak in the eyes of our enimies and the world. It has made the world more volatile. Maybe Bush had a quick cowboy trigger, but we now have procrastination until a response becomes a none event or never happens. Back to my original comment, these games will be played and if you are not in them you will get burned eventially as you are seeing.

This isn't a lab, it isn't theory, it is the real world.

We have to stabllize Iraq, we have to provide the security needed and we need to be togther on this and if we need to flex our muscles then get it done. You can let the Syrians fight all they want, I would keep them busy fighting each other. Iran cannot have a bomb! Period! There are ways to deal with it but having our backs pissed about negotiations on while we back peddle is assinine!

The best defense is a strong offense. Trust but verify. Don't be afraid to make a mistake, not making them will likely be worse for us.

We made a mistake invading Iraq in the first place because Arabs cannot be civilized.

But obumer was wrong to walk away and squander the costly victory we earned.

Peter asks what an America hater like Obama should do now?

I don't think he's capable of doing anything that is helpful to US interests.

so making suggestions to him is a waste if time.

[Peter1469]

Can the US stabilize Iraq? Iraq was created out of whole cloth after WWI. It is not a nation. Much of the Middle East is in upheaval as the Sykes-Picot regime crumbles.





I learned in real life and in a classroom setting that office politics will be played whther you participate or withdraw. The same is true in the world. There are good guys and bads guys, I like to think America stands for good. I don't know that many other countries that have done and shared things like we have. I say that not to minimize any other countries contribution. But when there is a problem we generally are the big brother that has to confront the problem. We do make mistakes sometimes and when we do we need to make sure we handle that as well. Iraq was a bad decision, it wasn't a fraud or a big lie it was a bad decision. "We broke it, we own it." We have many of our allies concerned about where we stand and what we will do if the proverbial shit hits the fan.

Another bad decision was pulling out of Iraq ( and lying about the agreement to stay). So was dabling in Lybia, showing weakness to Putin, look at China over that issue, look at N Korea.........This foreign policy has made us weak in the eyes of our enimies and the world. It has made the world more volatile. Maybe Bush had a quick cowboy trigger, but we now have procrastination until a response becomes a none event or never happens. Back to my original comment, these games will be played and if you are not in them you will get burned eventially as you are seeing.

This isn't a lab, it isn't theory, it is the real world.

We have to stabllize Iraq, we have to provide the security needed and we need to be togther on this and if we need to flex our muscles then get it done. You can let the Syrians fight all they want, I would keep them busy fighting each other. Iran cannot have a bomb! Period! There are ways to deal with it but having our backs pissed about negotiations on while we back peddle is assinine!

The best defense is a strong offense. Trust but verify. Don't be afraid to make a mistake, not making them will likely be worse for us.

[Mac-7]

Can the US stabilize Iraq? Iraq was created out of whole cloth after WWI. It is not a nation. Much of the Middle East is in upheaval as the Sykes-Picot regime crumbles.

You are composing that Arabia was broken up into many small nations of lunatics instead of being one very large nation of insane, violent jihadists for Allah?

hum.

[donttread]

Iran was a backward country that a young king tried to modernize.

But he was deposed by crazy Muslim clerics some of whom could not even read the Koran they were quoting from.

The taliban and Arab radicals attacked America on 9-11 so they deserved every bomb we dropped on them.

Iraq 50 years ago was a backward nation with a lot of oil.

I think we should have let saddam remain as their dictator because he was a good counterpunch to Iran.

I'm not conceding your idea that we have no business in the Middle East but having it to do over again we could have done it better.

Again Google some pics of 1960's Iran. Secondly, where do we derive the right to interfere in the ME from? Our god?

[Peter1469]

You are composing that Arabia was broken up into many small nations of lunatics instead of being one very large nation of insane, violent jihadists for Allah?

hum.

No, I am not.

When the Ottoman Empire controlled the Middle East they let the local tribes rule their lands. What Europeans did was break up the tribal areas by creating artificial states often splitting tribes and combining tribes who never got along with one another.

[Peter1469]

Again Google some pics of 1960's Iran. Secondly, where do we derive the right to interfere in the ME from? Our god?


It was a Cold War playground back then. We also needed their oil.

[donttread]

Proposal:
Form now on terrorist groups cannot be taken as a serious threat and certainly cannot warrant our intervention until the turn on those who profited from collaboration with the infidels, like the Saudis

[Ransom]

Proposal:
Form now on terrorist groups cannot be taken as a serious threat and certainly cannot warrant our intervention until the turn on those who profited from collaboration with the infidels, like the Saudis

Proof?

[texan]

Can the US stabilize Iraq? Iraq was created out of whole cloth after WWI. It is not a nation. Much of the Middle East is in upheaval as the Sykes-Picot regime crumbles.

We can.............................We will have a presence there and I do not have a problem with it. People have to understand, these presences we maintain around the world are necessary. If we leave people will fill those voids. Theory world sounds good but rarely works in the real world.

[Peter1469]

We can.............................We will have a presence there and I do not have a problem with it. People have to understand, these presences we maintain around the world are necessary. If we leave people will fill those voids. Theory world sounds good but rarely works in the real world.

The US can stay in Iraq another 10 years, and the second we leave the Sunnis and Shia will start fighting again. There isn't a vital reason for the US to have a significant force there.