Greeks Vote In Critical Election......

[MMC]

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece voted Sunday amid global fears that victory by parties that have vowed to cancel the country's international bailout agreements and accompanying austerity measures could undermine the European Union's joint currency and pitch the world's major economies into another sharp downturn.

For Greeks, it is the second national election in six weeks and arguably the most critical in decades, reflecting political turmoil sparked by a two-year financial crisis that some fear could force the country to abandon the euro and return to its old currency, the drachma. That in turn would likely drag down other financially troubled countries and threaten the euro itself.

The last opinion polls published before a two-week pre-election ban showed the radical left Syriza party of Alexis Tsipras running neck-and-neck with the conservative New Democracy party of Antonis Samaras. But no party is likely to win enough votes to form a government on its own, meaning a coalition will have to be formed to avoid yet another election.....snip~

http://news.yahoo.com/greeks-vote-critical-election-042835081.html
Associated Press – 1 hr 57 mins ago<<<<<


Now here is the Election that means something to the Entire World. Greece Has started their Voting. They will be deciding to either stay or leave the EU. Polls close at 7pm. This will affect that Global Economy thingy.

There have been no riots. They did have a fire not to far from the capitol but they are reporting that the fire was started accidently. Seems the Greeks don't want to tear up their country yet as they know it will only make things worse for all. Anyone else thinks Greece will riot if they stay in the EU? Will they riot if they leave the EU?

Will they run around calling out specific groups such as Christians or Muslims? Talk about how they are killing each other over a political election? Will they be looking to take the former Leaders to court and then talk about rioting if the Gov doesn't kill them?

Although check out what Hollande, France's new leader says about Greece if they should bail.

[MMC]

Still no riots!

[Peter1469]

Newly elected French President Francois Hollande warned in a Greek television interview earlier this week that "if the impression is given that the Greeks want to move away from the commitments that were taken and abandon all prospects of revival, then there will be countries in the Eurozone that will want to end the presence of Greece in the eurozone."


Of course.

I think the greatest fear in the EZ is that Greece exists the EZ and benefits from it (although I think that would take 1-2 years to determine).

[MMC]

Pretty strong language to say there will be countries that will want to End Greece's Presence in the EZ. Don't you think?

[Peter1469]

Of course not. Greece got into the EZ via massive accounting fraud.

[MMC]

You heard Hollande is pulling the French out of Afghanistan early, right? I think he will do the same with Syria too. I heard this Liberal leader in Greece now says he is open to the idea of Greece staying in the EZ. He was dead set against it the first time round. Although he says there would have to be some changes. Think he got the call from Obama?

How would you compare this Election to the one in Egypt?

[Peter1469]

I am not sure if France has an national security interest that would prompt them to use military force in Syria. We certainly don't. The election is Greece has global impact, since it could cause a Eurozone split, which will affect world markets.

Frankly, the election in Egypt is globally a non-event. I think that their military has control and will not allow Egypt to cause problems for the world (such as an Islamist suicide charge into Israel).

[RollingWave]

The great irony is that the left who want to reject the former bailout plans wants to.... ask money from Russia and China instead.... so they're all the same lazy bastards just that they want different folks to give them money for better conditions.

In the shorter run a greek exist will be quite disastorous, and the chain effect could be bad enough to offset whatever long gains we see (or push it very far down the line that by then we'd have gone through so many other factors), though at this point I doubt there's much option. the whole country is messed up as it's all everyon elses fault and not you know... a thoroughly unproductive country with massive tax evasion and corruption's fault

[MMC]

I am not sure if France has an national security interest that would prompt them to use military force in Syria. We certainly don't. The election is Greece has global impact, since it could cause a Eurozone split, which will affect world markets.

Frankly, the election in Egypt is globally a non-event. I think that their military has control and will not allow Egypt to cause problems for the world (such as an Islamist suicide charge into Israel).


I don't know about the French's Security Interest. But they did have people get caught in Syria. Military peeps. Also they are the ones that filed the resolutions in the UN against Syria and were making moves long before Clinton or Susan Rice opened her big mouth. Plus wasn't the French getting oil from Syria?

Lets not forget it was the French that caused the play with Libya by officially recognizing those Rebels without telling the US or the Brits.

I would have to agree with you on the issue that Egypts election in a non global event. But just like Greece, should there be a concern if Egypt's Economy bellies up?

Moreover do you think we should be giving Egypt money so they can hold their Elections? Do you think the general population even understands the basic concept of their Country running around the world with their hands out begging for money? The fact that Countries are giving money to Egypt not because they believe Egypt is of any real significance. But that they do so to control Egypt and keep them in their pocket, so to speak?

[MMC]

Results are in from the election that mattered to that Global Crisis thingy that so much emphasis is placed.....

Greeks voted in crucial elections on Sunday, with the center-right New Democracy party receiving about 30 percent of the vote, according to the government's projections. The results will likely keep Greece and its ailing economy in the euro zone, and ease fears among the world's financial markets of the "economic tsunami (http://news.yahoo.com/greek-socialist-head-proposes-unity-govt-192738197--finance.html)" that could have been--at least temporarily.

According to Reuters (http://news.yahoo.com/greek-socialist-head-proposes-unity-govt-192738197--finance.html), New Democracy took 29.5 percent of the vote and the socialist PASOK party took 12.3 percent--giving the pro-bailout parties a majority or 161 seats in the 300-seat parliament.

In a statement released late Sunday, Euro zone finance ministers reiterated its "commitment to assist Greece."

The euro gained in value against the dollar on Sunday, the Times noted, "an early sign that the outcome could provide at least a temporary lift to global financial markets."

The Times also cautioned that previous market rallies in Europe have been short-lived: "A few weeks ago, markets initially responded positively to a bailout plan for Spanish banks, but that optimism quickly gave out when the American stock markets opened on Monday.".....snip~

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/greek-elections-democracy-euro-205429861.html
The Lookout (http://thepoliticalforums.com/blogs/lookout/) – 7 hrs ago<<<<<


Obama and the White House has welcomed the news. Looks like he to is hoping this will give a boost to those European markets. They are waiting to see how Asian markets open up today. Did Greece solve anything?

[RollingWave]

I don't know about the French's Security Interest. But they did have people get caught in Syria. Military peeps. Also they are the ones that filed the resolutions in the UN against Syria and were making moves long before Clinton or Susan Rice opened her big mouth. Plus wasn't the French getting oil from Syria?

Lets not forget it was the French that caused the play with Libya by officially recognizing those Rebels without telling the US or the Brits.

I would have to agree with you on the issue that Egypts election in a non global event. But just like Greece, should there be a concern if Egypt's Economy bellies up?

Moreover do you think we should be giving Egypt money so they can hold their Elections? Do you think the general population even understands the basic concept of their Country running around the world with their hands out begging for money? The fact that Countries are giving money to Egypt not because they believe Egypt is of any real significance. But that they do so to control Egypt and keep them in their pocket, so to speak?

Well, both of their economy has been belly up for a long time already, that's not really the point, the key problem is that Egypt once it gets some sembelence of political stability back can simply devalue it's way out of trouble, it's structural problems are much more obvious and fixable... such as education and infrastructure (or rather the lack there of). where as Greece can not without exiting the Euro, it's population is educated, it's infrastructure not overly terrible. but it's stuck by something beyond their control.

A Greek Exit is very problematic in many sense, it's fairly likely that at least some of the other Southern European countries will do the same, and we end up with the Euro simply falling apart, and that'll be both an accounting and finanicial nightmare as a huge number of bonds and borrows default and a chaotic mess insues as the various country set up their own currencies again.

uncertainty means that most investers will withhold their money, which means liquidity dries up, which starts a very devious cycle where banks either implodes or can not / refuse to borrow and then other cooperates die out not because they aren't running profits but simply because they run into cashflow problems (almost all large cooperation runs on only a tiny % of cash that they actually need), which in turn hurts the banks even more...

The real problem is not rather the Greek exit is feasable, in the short term it almost certainly isnt', the problem is as Peter repeated pointed out and I agree with is that the current way they're bailing them out doesn't seem like it can prevent the inevitable .... even for that much longer...

A Euro breakup is almost certainly going to make 2008 look like childs play in comparison, and if that's the case then we're entering very dangerously close to the 1920s-30s situation... which essentially directly lead to WW2. as it caused a wave of European country to elect extremist / facist / communist in to government all over the place. or simply flat out staged revolutions. we're already seeing some shades of that in Greece as horrific as that sounds. the far left party still won some 25% of the votes this time around when they were a total non-entity just a few years back.

[MMC]

How did those Asian Markets do, opening up today RW?

[RollingWave]

Good, Taiwan's market went out 1.76% (125 points) but it's pretty irrelevant in the larger context, brokers need to make their living and they'll react to any small news to make a buck today even if it implode tomorrow.

For example. today the Tai index ends at roughly 7200 points, in 2008 on 5/19 it reached a yearly high of 9295 points, and by 11/20 .. exactly 6 month later, it was at the yearly low of 4029 points(!!), so the whole thign imploded by more than 50% in just 6 month, that's hardly abnormal by world stock standard that year. those traders will continue to party until the moment of revalenation dawns upon them. I have a good friend who's a (prett solid) trader and he basically just flat out points out that the stock is just a bunch of illusions and gambles. and hell I studied public finance in under-grad so a boatload of my classmates are in that busniess anyway.

The only good news for us is that we have zippo foreign debt and our government has a huge iron grip on the banking sector so even if all the foreign private banks go under we probably still be ok since our largest banks and desposites are almost all partially or entirely public. (the 3 largest banking entity in Taiwan is... the Bank of Taiwan, the Land Bank... and... out Postal service :grin:) but it'll still be ugly when all our customers go outta busniess, since we still rely quite strongly on exports obviously. but at just 4% unemployement right now, we have some room to fall I guess.

[MMC]

What about China and Hong Kong? Public Finance eh? So what do you do now? Still in the same field?

Btw RW when ya going to throw up an Avatar round here. :wink:

Not to mention.....Don't be shy in throwing up some things from your side of the world over there. I am sure there are some that are quite interested in what happening round there. So are the Asian countries really watching whats happening in the ME and or EU if they are not trading them with them?

[RollingWave]

I'm not in that field now, because I didn't like it much and the math involved is way too hard for me, and the career prospect of that field in Taiwan isn't particularly interesting for me, which is usually public workers or the banking / accounting industry.



China's in a precarious position right now, it's economic growth is reaching a point where they really must start to couple it with serious political reforms to match it, other wise it might start unravelling or at least getting stuck, while no one really doubts the CCP is capable of iron hand reforms the stuff they need to address soon is both very difficult (since it involves about 1/4 of the world's population) and a good amount of it certainly will hurt some of the standing interest for their party members.

The single most problematic fundemental problem in China is the so called "Hu Ko" system, which is essentially a registery system for the entier population, the problem rises in that technically speaking, there is a very complicated mess of how rural folks can legally change their registry from rural areas to cities, which is obviously insanely beyond the facts on the ground where over the last 2 decade the largest human migration in the history of man kind have occured between the Rural region of China to the Cities.

There are realistic consequences, for example, a rural born couple moving to the city and having kids there... will NOT be able to have their kids enroll in the city's highschools, which will obviously severly limit their career prospect, so China is in danger of ending up having a caste system where rural migrant worker's kids will forever be rural migrant workers. as well. example of such kids rising to a differnt level has been too few and far in between for comfort, and the danger of a huge but immobile lower class is as clear as daylight obviously.

The reason for the archanic system not having changed is partially practical and partially a legacy of the ole Mao era mentality. on a practical level there's no real way the cities can build up the infrastructures needed for a free mobile society, the numbers we're talking about is insane, the city of Shanghai for example.. nowadays have a population of 23 million (roughly equal to the entire population of Taiwan or Texas as a comparison), of which around 40% are migrants (that's the official number, most people think it's more like 60%) going with the official number for a moment Shanghai's population have grown by an unfathomable 10 million in the last 2 decade alone (and remember, this is probably a mild to extreme underestimate, also, about 70-80% of it happened in the last *1* decade). it doesn't take a rocket scientiest to see that this is an insane proposition for the city adminsitrator to keep up with that sort of pouplation growth in terms of city infrastructure. they should be applauded already that the city today isn't one huge slum and completely dysfucntional . (see Mexico City or some of those Brazilian/Indian cities) but even that has a serious limit.

So while the US is complaining that government is too big (probably rightfully so in their case), the general problem in China is that government's basic function isn't expanding fast enough to cover the ridiculasly fast and extreme changing reality on the ground.

[MMC]

I'm not in that field now, because I didn't like it much and the math involved is way too hard for me, and the career prospect of that field in Taiwan isn't particularly interesting for me, which is usually public workers or the banking / accounting industry.



China's in a precarious position right now, it's economic growth is reaching a point where they really must start to couple it with serious political reforms to match it, other wise it might start unravelling or at least getting stuck, while no one really doubts the CCP is capable of iron hand reforms the stuff they need to address soon is both very difficult (since it involves about 1/4 of the world's population) and a good amount of it certainly will hurt some of the standing interest for their party members.

The single most problematic fundemental problem in China is the so called "Hu Ko" system, which is essentially a registery system for the entier population, the problem rises in that technically speaking, there is a very complicated mess of how rural folks can legally change their registry from rural areas to cities, which is obviously insanely beyond the facts on the ground where over the last 2 decade the largest human migration in the history of man kind have occured between the Rural region of China to the Cities.

There are realistic consequences, for example, a rural born couple moving to the city and having kids there... will NOT be able to have their kids enroll in the city's highschools, which will obviously severly limit their career prospect, so China is in danger of ending up having a caste system where rural migrant worker's kids will forever be rural migrant workers. as well. example of such kids rising to a differnt level has been too few and far in between for comfort, and the danger of a huge but immobile lower class is as clear as daylight obviously.

The reason for the archanic system not having changed is partially practical and partially a legacy of the ole Mao era mentality. on a practical level there's no real way the cities can build up the infrastructures needed for a free mobile society, the numbers we're talking about is insane, the city of Shanghai for example.. nowadays have a population of 23 million (roughly equal to the entire population of Taiwan or Texas as a comparison), of which around 40% are migrants (that's the official number, most people think it's more like 60%) going with the official number for a moment Shanghai's population have grown by an unfathomable 10 million in the last 2 decade alone (and remember, this is probably a mild to extreme underestimate, also, about 70-80% of it happened in the last *1* decade). it doesn't take a rocket scientiest to see that this is an insane proposition for the city adminsitrator to keep up with that sort of pouplation growth in terms of city infrastructure. they should be applauded already that the city today isn't one huge slum and completely dysfucntional . (see Mexico City or some of those Brazilian/Indian cities) but even that has a serious limit.

So while the US is complaining that government is too big (probably rightfully so in their case), the general problem in China is that government's basic function isn't expanding fast enough to cover the ridiculasly fast and extreme changing reality on the ground.

So what do you see China doing with regards to the EU? Or even Greece? One thing is for certain the generic drugs China puts out they could fill that market that Greece needs. Even if questionable concerning safety standards China could do it for less than anyone else. I take it you don't see the Chinese throwing any Stimulus money to the EU and or Greece.....right?

You said you were out the military right? How long you been out? Did you say you were into communications?

Oh and the Avatar? Or are ya like going with that Mr Bo Look? :glasses7: Shaken not stirred.....Right? :f_cheers: :grin:

[MMC]

Ah.....I see ya got the Avatar. Hmmmm wonder why that didn't show the first time I looked at the thread. I thought there was a lag that was going on with the threads earlier.

[RollingWave]

I have no idea what China will or will not do on the EU, they co-chair the World Bank for what it's worth, but I doubt they'll go out of their way to save the Eurozone FWIW, I've pointed out before that it is in the USA's interest to maintain the current world order...buuuuut rather that is the case for China is more questionable. they are somewhat torn between not wanting to see the world go to hell while they're still developing and probably not going to hate the prospect of seeing the west suffer economic hardship if you know what I mean. I think they'll probably end up doing a passive half arse measure where they'll do their share in funding the world bank / IMF but not go further beyond that.

I served in the military because Taiwan has a mandatory draft where every male without serious health issue must serve a year (it use to be 3 years in the days when war seems imminent but only a year now) sometime between age 18 to 35 (most people do it around age 18-24). what type of military you serve in is a random luck of the draw and I ended up drawing as a Radarmen for the Navy frigate (the old USS-Cook that was part of the US Navy from Vietnam to the First Gulf War) been out of it for almost 4.5 years now. life in Taiwan's military is certainly not as "exciting" as it would be in he US one... or better or worse :grin:

I'm running a (so far not so successful) family busniess, it's mostly tied to education .

[MMC]

Thanks RW.....well I got to head out to work. Til next Time.

[Peter1469]

I don't know about the French's Security Interest. But they did have people get caught in Syria. Military peeps. Also they are the ones that filed the resolutions in the UN against Syria and were making moves long before Clinton or Susan Rice opened her big mouth. Plus wasn't the French getting oil from Syria?

Lets not forget it was the French that caused the play with Libya by officially recognizing those Rebels without telling the US or the Brits.

I would have to agree with you on the issue that Egypts election in a non global event. But just like Greece, should there be a concern if Egypt's Economy bellies up?

Moreover do you think we should be giving Egypt money so they can hold their Elections? Do you think the general population even understands the basic concept of their Country running around the world with their hands out begging for money? The fact that Countries are giving money to Egypt not because they believe Egypt is of any real significance. But that they do so to control Egypt and keep them in their pocket, so to speak?

I don't think Syria has much oil. If they did we would have invaded a year ago.

I don't think that Egypt's economy will affect the global economy regardless of what it does. The Greek economy is another matter, even if that is mostly symbolic.

We should stop giving Egypt money period. The cold war is over.

[Peter1469]

Results are in from the election that mattered to that Global Crisis thingy that so much emphasis is placed.....

Greeks voted in crucial elections on Sunday, with the center-right New Democracy party receiving about 30 percent of the vote, according to the government's projections. The results will likely keep Greece and its ailing economy in the euro zone, and ease fears among the world's financial markets of the "economic tsunami (http://news.yahoo.com/greek-socialist-head-proposes-unity-govt-192738197--finance.html)" that could have been--at least temporarily.

According to Reuters (http://news.yahoo.com/greek-socialist-head-proposes-unity-govt-192738197--finance.html), New Democracy took 29.5 percent of the vote and the socialist PASOK party took 12.3 percent--giving the pro-bailout parties a majority or 161 seats in the 300-seat parliament.

In a statement released late Sunday, Euro zone finance ministers reiterated its "commitment to assist Greece."

The euro gained in value against the dollar on Sunday, the Times noted, "an early sign that the outcome could provide at least a temporary lift to global financial markets."

The Times also cautioned that previous market rallies in Europe have been short-lived: "A few weeks ago, markets initially responded positively to a bailout plan for Spanish banks, but that optimism quickly gave out when the American stock markets opened on Monday.".....snip~

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/greek-elections-democracy-euro-205429861.html
The Lookout (http://thepoliticalforums.com/blogs/lookout/) – 7 hrs ago<<<<<


Obama and the White House has welcomed the news. Looks like he to is hoping this will give a boost to those European markets. They are waiting to see how Asian markets open up today. Did Greece solve anything?

The entire thing is slightly amusing. Greece has a debt problem, and the solution offered leaves them in greater debt! But it does roll over bonds and protects the bond holders for a while longer....

[MMC]

I don't think Syria has much oil. If they did we would have invaded a year ago.

I don't think that Egypt's economy will affect the global economy regardless of what it does. The Greek economy is another matter, even if that is mostly symbolic.

We should stop giving Egypt money period. The cold war is over.


I agree with you there Pete. Furthermore we should force those NGO's by the Demos and the GOP to leave Egypt and come home. If not cut them off until they leave Eypt. Also remove any NFP's. Let them Egyptians come up with their own non profit organizations.

Oh, thats right.....that would cost money. Something Egypt doesnt have.

[RollingWave]

yeah, especially when most of those aid is going to them making tanks and not you know... actually more justifiable things like schools and hospital and what not.

[moon]

Oh, thats right.....that would cost money. Something Egypt doesnt have.

http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:EGY&dl=en&hl=en&q=egyptian+gdp

[MMC]

http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:EGY&dl=en&hl=en&q=egyptian+gdp


Yeah and your point is? How does that compare with the real players in the World. Those that actually do have money. Lets not forget Egypt has to run around begging others for money. All because they can't use their own to take care of their fake Democracy Election.

[Peter1469]

yeah, especially when most of those aid is going to them making tanks and not you know... actually more justifiable things like schools and hospital and what not.

At least as far as US military hardware is concerned, Egypt doesn't pay- we give them $Xb to spend on our stuff and they thumb through the weapons catalog and choose what they want.

[RollingWave]

At least as far as US military hardware is concerned, Egypt doesn't pay- we give them $Xb to spend on our stuff and they thumb through the weapons catalog and choose what they want.
I know that's the case, which makes it all the more baffling / disheartening.

[Conley]

Nice to see you finally got an avatar RW :tongue: