Current Presidential Poll

[coolwalker]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Last week, the president received an immediate bounce following the Supreme Court ruling on his health care law. On the night of the ruling, the single night poll results were by far the best recorded for Obama in many months. Over the past few days, the numbers have returned to where they’ve been for most of the past month—Romney up slightly among likely voters in a very close race.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)

Golly-gee, that surge Obama had lasted what...4 days! Ah well, too bad barry.

[Conley]

I don't think bounce even existed in the first place...nothing I saw was bigger than the margin of error , three or four points in most cases.

[Goldie Locks]

The latest poll I heard was Romney 51%, Ubama 43%

That is in the SWING STATES!!!!

[Conley]

The latest poll I heard was Romney 51%, Ubama 43%

That is in the SWING STATES!!!!

That's a good point too - polls in the swing states matter a lot more than a nationwide average.

[coolwalker]

The latest poll I heard was Romney 51%, Ubama 43%

That is in the SWING STATES!!!!

I didn't see that, but it is good news. I know that the polls taken here in Virginia recently have been skewed a bit in the manner in which questions are formed. It makes Virginia look like it's going to vote for Obama when in fact that doesn't appear to be the truth at all. It probably won't even be a tight race here. The college students are disallusioned and won't be voting like they did before and the nes that did vote for barry last time are still looking for those jobs he promised. Oh he is a talker to be sure, but he rarely sttes the truth, only his slanted version. November can't come soon enough.

[Conley]

Here is the RCP Electoral Map...most of the swing states will go red IMO, including VA

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[Shoot the Goose]

The latest poll I heard was Romney 51%, Ubama 43%

That is in the SWING STATES!!!!

I saw that earlier today, but in my view, it only shows how whacked all the polls are. I do not believe that Obama can accurately be up 3 overall, but collectivley behind 8 in the swing states, which would give Romney the election by a reasonable margin.

My own belief is that Obama is realistically behind 3-5 overall with likely live voters. When enthusiasm is added, I submit 4-7 behind for Obama.

He's ahead 95 points with dead voters though. And my understanding is that they are very enthusiastiic this cycle.

[Captain Obvious]

Get ready for $2/gallon gas prices.

[Goldie Locks]

Get ready for $2/gallon gas prices.

Is that because of the deal Ubama made with the Saudi's to lower gas prices until after the election by flooding the market with oil?

[MMC]

Is that because of the deal Ubama made with the Saudi's to lower gas prices until after the election by flooding the market with oil?

http://photos.lasvegassun.com/media/img/photos/2012/06/26/Smith_C20120627_t655.jpg?23d0d85dc3029222a8299eec0 8aff692318f4809

That and getting the G8 to make a statement that they would release from their reserves to. All to drive that price down. Althought we should have peeps on the Saudi as to what quality Crude they are running. :wink:

[Captain Obvious]

Is that because of the deal Ubama made with the Saudi's to lower gas prices until after the election by flooding the market with oil?

I don't know about that, there seems to be a correlation, but if you do some homework, you'll find that gas prices have dropped sharply every summer before a POTUS election for the past, I dunno - 5 or 6 elections.

[Trinnity]

I think his support is less than what it appears to be. A house of cards. We'll see.

[Peter1469]

Is that because of the deal Ubama made with the Saudi's to lower gas prices until after the election by flooding the market with oil?

All recent presidents did the same thing.

[RollingWave]

I've been very interested in Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight analysis for elections since I've been a fan of his back when he was doing sabremetric analysis for the MLB, he claims that his analysis is based on a complex system of weighted polls taken into account of previous results compare to their polls and also a series of economics indicators.

Interestingly, his analysis says that Obama is actually leading by a fairly comfortable margin, not 2008 level one side margin ofcourse but really quite a bit more than I would have expected. (i would have guessed either very close or a slight Romney lead)

Of course, most baseball sabremetric folks tend to have some liberal leanings and his blog is now associated with the NYT, so he's not without his own bias I'd guess, but his approach is very interesting as it goes a step above simply calling a bunch of folks at random. I'd be very interested to see the result of this election in comparison to his analysis.