Obama, Romney in dead heat in presidential race

[Jim Miller]

Obama, Romney in dead heat in presidential race

http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/2012/07/18/2012_Vote_for_President_120718_1.gif

(CBS News) President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey. Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The one percentage point difference is within the survey's three point margin of error.

Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women.

The president's supporters are more likely to strongly back their candidate. Fifty-two percent strongly favor Mr. Obama, while just 29 percent of Romney voters strongly back the presumptive Republican nominee.

More than one in three Romney voters say they are supporting Romney primarily because they dislike Mr. Obama. Only eight percent of Obama supporters say their support for the president is tied to their dislike of Romney.

Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections - up from 36 percent in March - while just 27 percent of Democrats say they same.

(more at link)
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57475178-503544/obama-romney-in-dead-heat-in-presidential-race/

[Mainecoons]

The only significance here is that this is a poll that is biased to the left.

You want accuracy, stick with Rasmussen.

Not that polls mean squat at this point.

[Jim Miller]

the only significance here is that this is a poll that is biased to the left.


Bingo!

[Deadwood]

The only significance here is that this is a poll that is biased to the left.

You want accuracy, stick with Rasmussen.

Not that polls mean squat at this point.


Accepting that, there is more. The fact that this polling firm tends to the left and it IS CBS, this is worrisome news for Obama's brain trust.

Obama is getting the 'good' press by at least two to one margin. Obama has "The Seal of Office" effect, usually worth 5%, and the O camp is outspending and out-campaigning the republicans by a wide margin. Let's say that too is worth five.

So, based on historical trends, Obama is trailing 7 to 10 points.

Note that Jimmy Carter LED Reagan through three quarters of the campaign, until the debate, with a average margin of something like 8%.

And, let's face it. Romney has about as much charisma as sand stone.

I have been predicting an Obama presidency, but I don't know anymore. If, as it appears, the midwest corn and soybean crops fail this summer, and all he's got to throw at higher than 8% unemployment is a copy of the program that was designed to keep unemployment below 8%...well...

[coolwalker]

Whenever an incumbant is even or even 1 point behind the challanger, he has more than an uphill battle. Polls however are answered by people like myself who will never give a straight answer. I am sure I am not the only person in America who lies to Pollsters on purpose. The reason I do lie to them is because I don't like how they squew the questions to attempt to force me to answer a certain way.

[Peter1469]

Realclearpolitics gets the closest most times.

[Cigar]

Whenever an incumbant is even or even 1 point behind the challanger, he has more than an uphill battle. Polls however are answered by people like myself who will never give a straight answer. I am sure I am not the only person in America who lies to Pollsters on purpose. The reason I do lie to them is because I don't like how they squew the questions to attempt to force me to answer a certain way.

Ok ... why not call the Winner Today. :)