Another First For The Obama Administration

[Mainecoons]

The number of workers taking federal disability insurance payments hit yet another record in July, increasing to 8,753,935 during the month from the previous record of 8,733,461 set in June, according to newly released data (http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/currentpay.cgi) from the Social Security Administration.The 8,753,935 workers who took federal disability insurance payments in July exceeded the population of 39 of the 50 states. Only 11 states—California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and New Jersey—had more people in them than the number of workers on the federal disability insurance rolls in July.


CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN--IF YOU'RE TERMINALLY STUPID.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/8753935-workers-disability-set-another-record-july-exceed-population-39-states

[Trinnity]

We've never seen misery like this in my lifetime. I don't see how Obama can be re-elected.

[Captain America]

We've never seen misery like this in my lifetime. I don't see how Obama can be re-elected.

And yet InTrade still has him at almost 60% chance of winning. Go figure!

It should be interesting to see where he is at once his stadium filling, full-out bull**** begins.

[Goldie Locks]

Cloward and Piven.

[Goldie Locks]

Ubama is in the red for June and Romney is playing it right...just like a horse race, waiting until they come spinning out of the turn before he really lets that horse loose....Giddy up!!!!

[Chris]

And yet InTrade still has him at almost 60% chance of winning. Go figure!

It should be interesting to see where he is at once his stadium filling, full-out bull**** begins.

Didn't Intrade get the SCOTUS decision on Obamacare dead wrong, what predicting 75% chance they'd strike the individual mandate?

I dare say though InTrade is probably right on Obama, and on Reps taking the Senate.

[Captain America]

Your guess is as good as mine brother. But InTrade, I have found, is as accurate as any, I suppose.

I am not sure what InTrade had on the SCOTUS decision. But I am going, right now, to find out.

This thirst for knowledge is getting the best of me. LOL!

I believe you are correct sir. Ding! Ding!

http://www.businessinsider.com/obamacare-intrade-odds-supreme-court-ruling-affordable-care-act-2012-6

[Chris]

Your guess is as good as mine brother. But InTrade, I have found, is as accurate as any, I suppose.

I am not sure what InTrade had on the SCOTUS decision. But I am going, right now, to find out.

This thirst for knowledge is getting the best of me. LOL!

75%

See http://traviswhitecommunications.com/2012/07/08/prediction-markets-and-obamacare-intrade-got-it-wrong/

[Shoot the Goose]

And yet InTrade still has him at almost 60% chance of winning. Go figure!

It should be interesting to see where he is at once his stadium filling, full-out bull**** begins.

As we know ... I hope ... In-Trade is nothing but a reflection of where folks have placed money. Not a prediction ... just the current odds based on where the money sits. Easily manipulated by those who see it as a marketing expense. Or idiots with a few bucks.

[Captain America]

As we know ... I hope ... In-Trade is nothing but a reflection of where folks have placed money. Not a prediction ... just the current odds based on where the money sits. Easily manipulated by those who see it as a marketing expense. Or idiots with a few bucks.

I have found that logical people place their money where it will benefit them the most. I would venture to say that a lot of people placing their money on Obama probably dispise the man. They are only betting on him because they think he will win and they will profit thereby, monetarily, even if not politically.

It's kinda like a Cowboy fan betting on the Packers. Sure, he wants the Packers to lose, but he's not foolish enough to put his hard earned money on the Cowboys.

That's why I tend to put a tad more faith in InTrade predictions. But the operative word here is "predictions".

Myself, at this stage of the game, I wouldn't bet a nickel either way.

[Chris]

Goose, I can understand your suspicions, but if such betting or prediction markets are structured right it has a good scientific basis--see James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds, or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds, which is a decent summary. I don't think it wouldn't pay for them to manipulate the odds.

Yes, they--Intrade or the betters/investors--got the SCOTUS Obamacare decision wrong, but so did most of America. Maybe we should be more suspicious of the Court not staying out of politics!

(Apologies to maine for getting off topic!)

[Captain America]

I think it's done just like betting on the ponies. If everybody bets on one horse, the winning odds go way down. Then that gves incentive to bet on another longshot to increase the return of investment. Eventually it all levels out in percentages, with a determined spread, that is often proven to be very accurate.

What blows my mind is how they can predict basketball games. With scores sometime over a hundred points, they can predict with the spread margin withing one or two points usually.

I truly don't pretend to understand how it all works but I do know this much. It would be wise to observe people with enough expendable cash on hand to even play this frivilous betting game, even if they are wrong. Odds are they have to be right more than they are wrong or they would not have expendible cash.

Knowing that one might not be the smartest fellow on two legs (which I do) gives that fellow a leg up in the competition that think they know it all.

[Shoot the Goose]

Folks. Again, to put faith in In-Trade right now, as though it is a predicter, is folly. It is only where the money of those willing to bet this far out sits. Those are very different dynamics than what we see come mid-September. Not an incumbant President yet who eventually lost who was not ahead in the polls at this point. Carter and Bush I being the contemporary examples.


Secondly, In-Trade is most assuredly not representative of the American public. Ever try setting up an account there ? If you were European, its a cinch. American .... its beyond 90% of the voters.

[Captain America]

Folks. Again, to put faith in In-Trade right now, as though it is a predicter, is folly. It is only where the money of those willing to bet this far out sits. Those are very different dynamics than what we see come mid-September. Not an incumbant President yet who eventually lost who was not ahead in the polls at this point. Carter and Bush I being the contemporary examples.


Secondly, In-Trade is most assuredly not representative of the American public. Ever try setting up an account there ? If you were European, its a cinch. American .... its beyond 90% of the voters.

Very true. Like I said. At this stage of the game, I wouldn't bet a nickel. I wouldn't believe Gallup, Rassmussen, anything. It's just too damn early to say.

All it takes is to blow your goo on one blue dress to turn the tables completely around. It's just a question on who blows their load first.

[Shoot the Goose]

Very true. Like I said. At this stage of the game, I wouldn't bet a nickel. I wouldn't believe Gallup, Rassmussen, anything. It's just too damn early to say.

All it takes is to blow your goo on one blue dress to turn the tables completely around. It's just a question on who blows their load first.

Predicting is a little bit fun though, and sharpshooting the pollsters.

I have my own standards. First is that, assuming election results tomorrow, it is unlikely to see the incumbant, Obama, gain such as five points in one state, compared to his 2008 results, but lose 5 points in another state. I realize there can be such as a favorite son type of outlier result, but for the most part, the trend will be consistent across the board. I.E. He's not going up much in one state, but then down much in another, where it matters.

Where one looks at the more reliable polls, Obama is down 3-4 points from his 2008 margins consistently. And a bit more in some places. If one then wants to factor in voter motivation, it gets more bleak for him.

I already have my own short list of key predicter states, but if Obama stays down 3 or more in the current state polls, he is screwed. As that will translate to 5 or more on election day.

[Captain America]

Predicting is a little bit fun though, and sharpshooting the pollsters.

I have my own standards. First is that, assuming election results tomorrow, it is unlikely to see the incumbant, Obama, gain such as five points in one state, compared to his 2008 results, but lose 5 points in another state. I realize there can be such as a favorite son type of outlier result, but for the most part, the trend will be consistent across the board. I.E. He's not going up much in one state, but then down much in another, where it matters.

Where one looks at the more reliable polls, Obama is down 3-4 points from his 2008 margins consistently. And a bit more in some places. If one then wants to factor in voter motivation, it gets more bleak for him.

I already have my own short list of key predicter states, but if Obama stays down 3 or more in the current state polls, he is screwed. As that will translate to 5 or more on election day.

You know, what I am seeing is Obama barely out-flanking Romney while Obama's campaign is still in a slow burn mode.

The Obama we saw during his initial campaign, with the jam packed stadiums and all the eloquent feel good rhetoric, has yet to come out of the arsenal. yet he is still edging out Romney. I expect to see him kick in the afterburners as he gets close to the election. Timing is everything.

But it sure will be fun to watch. I can survive either of them winning. Hell, I survived Bush Jr. I can survive anything.

I do not put my security into the hands of the government. I make my own.

I have come to learn that election results have very little to do with how the fish are going to bite this weekend. I am more concerned whether the fish are biting or not.

In fact, I was an avid McCain supporter last election. That is, until he let the RNC shove Palin down his throat. If he couldn't tell them no, how would he stand up to other super powers? Anyways, I pulled my support for him then and I went fishing on election day instead.

Like Limbaugh said, "If you don't like the recession, don't participate."

[PT Again]

Didn't Intrade get the SCOTUS decision on Obamacare dead wrong, what predicting 75% chance they'd strike the individual mandate?

I dare say though InTrade is probably right on Obama, and on Reps taking the Senate.



They did strike the mandate. They legislated from the bench to call it a tax......:angry:

[Captain America]

They did strike the mandate. They legislated from the bench to call it a tax......:angry:

Technically, I believe you are correct sir.

[Goldie Locks]

Great so it's a tax...how does that help us?

[PT Again]

Great so it's a tax...how does that help us?

Pisses me off..........:grin:

[Captain America]

Great so it's a tax...how does that help us?

Who knows? Who can read the damn thing?

[Goldie Locks]

Who knows? Who can read the damn thing?

It doesn't.

[Captain America]

I take it you have read it from beginning to end already. You have me at a disadvantage.

Maybe one of these days I will read it and then we can talk more intelligently. I certainly don't believe anything I hear on TV or read on forums without researching it first. I'm sure you don't either.

[Goldie Locks]

I take it you have read it from beginning to end already. You have me at a disadvantage.

Maybe one of these days I will read it and then we can talk more intelligently. I certainly don't believe anything I hear on TV or read on forums without researching it first. I'm sure you don't either.



I don't know everything that's in it...hell even Ubama doesn't know what the hell is in it...but I have read the tax increases that are in it and my sister is a nurse and they are going through hell right now.

[Captain America]

I don't know everything that's in it...hell even Ubama doesn't know what the hell is in it...but I have read the tax increases that are in it and my sister is a nurse and they are going through hell right now.


Well hey, you know what Obama knows and does not know and you have a sister that is a nurse. By anyone's standards that should make you an authority. Far be it from me to question someone with such impeccable sources.





<snicker.>

[Goldie Locks]

Well hey, you know what Obama knows and does not know and you have a sister that is a nurse. By anyone's standards that should make you an authority. Far be it from me to question someone with such impeccable sources.





<snicker.>


OK...guess you're for Ubamacare...far be it from me to talk you out of your Utopia.

[Captain America]

OK...guess you're for Ubamacare...far be it from me to talk you out of your Utopia.

Don't know if I'm for it or not. If what I read is true, since my income is less than 250k, and I already have my own insurance, it shouldn't effect me either way.

But if you make over 250k, and still can't be responsible enough to buy your own insurance, i don't feel a lot of sympathy for you. If someone wants to mooch off the governemnt expecting me, the tax PAYER to pay for their medical bills, I could care less if they get less tax return. They probably weren't paying any taxes to begin with.

But that's just me.

[Captain America]

I got an idea. A way to get Goldilocks on board with Obamacare.

Let's call it.....

ROMNEYCARE!

[Captain America]

Here. Perhaps this will help you to better understand the ACA. It speaks in a language you might understand.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbLTovqG29g

[coolwalker]

Are people injuring themselves on purpose? With people out of work how can they get injured on the job? Oh, maybe they are lying to survive because Obama is incompetent.

[Mainecoons]

Here. Perhaps this will help you to better understand the ACA. It speaks in a language you might understand.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbLTovqG29g

Did you actually watch this? He is hardly describing ObamaCare.

Also, you do understand that the Constitution doesn't bar states from enacting programs like this, don't you?

Finally, although Barack Obama and the rest of the left seem incapable of learning from their mistakes and failures, maybe Mr. Romney is. The mark of successful business people isn't that they are always right, it is that they make more right decisions than wrong ones and learn from the latter.

[Peter1469]

Federalism is such a challenging concept, isn't it?

[Chris]

Federalism is such a challenging concept, isn't it?

It's counterintuitive. If you (generic :-)) don't know your history, you'd think to be a federalist means to be for a strong federal government.

[Peter1469]

It's counterintuitive. If you (generic :-)) don't know your history, you'd think to be a federalist means to be for a strong federal government.
That never occurred to me before. You may be onto something.....

[Chris]

Well, right, you had the anti-federalists who wanted a loose confederation, federalists who wanted a stronger constitutional republic, and probably plenty of left-over Tories who'd have rather returnrd to being subject to the King. Today what's the opposite of federalism? Federalization, nationalization, centralization?

[Peter1469]

Well, right, you had the anti-federalists who wanted a loose confederation, federalists who wanted a stronger constitutional republic, and probably plenty of left-over Tories who'd have rather returnrd to being subject to the King. Today what's the opposite of federalism? Federalization, nationalization, centralization?

Even the old federalists wouldn't agree with the current crop of libs and the level of State control that they demand.

[Captain America]

Did you actually watch this? He is hardly describing ObamaCare.

Also, you do understand that the Constitution doesn't bar states from enacting programs like this, don't you?

Finally, although Barack Obama and the rest of the left seem incapable of learning from their mistakes and failures, maybe Mr. Romney is. The mark of successful business people isn't that they are always right, it is that they make more right decisions than wrong ones and learn from the latter.

Good points. But I got no dog in this fight. I make less that a zillion dollars, or whatever, and I am responsible enough to have my own health insurance. All the people that work for me do it on a sub-contractor basis and I'm gonna leave the worry to those who need to worry about it. My wife works in the medical industry and they are anticipating an increase in revenue. Don't know if that holds true across the board though.

I hear people here telling me how their taxes are killing them because of Obamacare. I thought it don't even kick in for a coupla years. What's the deal with that?

BTW... I like the way you dialog. You got smarts and know how to discuss things without making yourself out to be an idiot. What, particularly, do you feel will hurt you when the ACA actually happens? I don't know that much about it having not actually read it. School me.

[Chris]

Even the old federalists wouldn't agree with the current crop of libs and the level of State control that they demand.

Agree, that's where I think the meaning got confused, watered down, turned around, to mean stronger government rather constitutionally limited government.

Same way liberal did. You still see the old meaning in phrases like liberal trade policy. But for the most part that's disappearing, replaced by a progressive liberalism.

[Captain America]

I dig the idea of less government but everytime I hear a politician campaign on it, I just put my hand over my ahole and hope for the best.

I do like the idea of good roads and education and healthcare and a strong defense. I'm willing to pay for it and not whine. But when I hear about all these special interests sucking our tax coffers, foreign giveaways, illegal alien welfare, roads to no where, effects of cocaine on Asian pidgeons, I realize we do, in fact, have a bunch of gypsies in the palace.

The liberals blame the conservatives. The conservatives blame the liberals. I blame them all.

[Goldie Locks]

I dig the idea of less government but everytime I hear a politician campaign on it, I just put my hand over my ahole and hope for the best.

I do like the idea of good roads and education and healthcare and a strong defense. I'm willing to pay for it and not whine. But when I hear about all these special interests sucking our tax coffers, foreign giveaways, illegal alien welfare, roads to no where, effects of cocaine on Asian pidgeons, I realize we do, in fact, have a bunch of gypsies in the palace.

The liberals blame the conservatives. The conservatives blame the liberals. I blame them all.


Education and healthcare are no business of the federal government unless you want to usurp the constitution.