IMPress Polly
08-16-2015, 08:27 AM
We know that Vice President Joe Biden has now formed an exploratory committee to formally weigh the pros and cons of running for president. Usually when people of his prominence and stature do so, they follow through and decide to run. At this point then I think it worth contemplating the potential implications of a Joe Biden presidential bid.
First off, let me just say that this is EXCELLENT NEWS for those of us in the Bernie Sanders camp because Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, according to all the polls, would be competing for the same votes, where Bernie represents a different section of the party and would, accordingly, be largely unaffected by Biden joining the race. In other words, for Biden to enter the race would split the "Democratic establishment" vote in two, thus creating a real opening for Bernie to potentially actually clinch the nomination! It's, to that end, a foolish move for their part, but it looks like fools they be! YaY! :smiley:
The result of Biden entering the race would likely be a close three-way contest. Don't rely on the current polls that include Joe Biden in assessing his potential, incidentally. Candidates pretty invariably get a big boost in support once they actually declare and one can definitely expect as much for Biden. He would probably have a significant base of support. However, he couldn't unite the party. Obama won the nomination in 2008 by uniting a specific coalition of forces that included centrist political independents, and especially the youth, as well as Latinos, African Americans, and the labor vote. Biden, with his more conservative politics and comparatively weak stand on the immigration issue relative to candidates like Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, has no chance of winning either the vote of the Democratic youth in the nomination race nor that of Latinos. Neither has he any chance of winning the vote of Democratic women overall, as he'd be the weakest of these three main candidates on issues of gender politics. (e.g. He describes himself as "pro-life", i.e. sees abortion as immoral, which is none too reassuring from the perspective of the women's movement, particularly amidst today's fast-moving wave of attacks on and new restrictions on women's reproductive rights. Similarly, it's been made clear vis-a-vis the leaks we've gotten from Biden's people that he would also be running for a terrible reason: simply to deny Hillary Clinton the nomination. That won't go over well with female voters.) However, his close connection to President Obama, who remains basically popular with African Americans, could win him the balance of the African American vote in the primaries, and he'd certainly attract the older, more conservative-leaning Democrats to his campaign; especially older white men. And, like Hillary Clinton, he's conservative enough to have some considerable access to corporate donations. (He's qualitatively more conservative than she is, in fact.) The question is whether he can translate an alliance of old, affluent white guys, potentially African Americans, and certainly a large swath of the corporate and financial aristocracy into the Democratic nomination for president.
It seems like Biden would, in the above connection, be up against roughly even competition from both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in terms of demographic appeal. Hillary Clinton seems likely to win the overall vote of Democratic women (e.g. currently two out of every three Democratic women support her campaign specifically, and her support base will probably only get more lopsidedly female if Biden enters the race and takes most of her male supporters), particularly since she is running pretty aggressively on gender politics, and also seems more likely than not to wind up the favorite of Latinos, who might be turned off by some of Bernie Sanders' historical proposals to reduce legal immigration to the United States (though he does support a path to citizenship for all 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the country), by his socialistic economic views (Latinos actually tend to be to the right of, and more optimistic about capitalism than, white people these days on economic issues), and by the refusal of the Obama Administration, including Joe Biden, to support the kind of tactics that Hillary Clinton has expressed a willingness to affect in terms of shielding larger numbers of undocumented immigrants and their children from deportation in the absence of immigration reform legislation from Congress. Plus she's obviously got a fair amount of corporate support (albeit not nearly as much as her rivals on the Republican side of the aisle) due to the somewhat more corporate-friendly, communitarian approach to reducing income inequality she's laid out (e.g. offering incentives for businesses to share profits with their workers, as opposed the more direct and forcible wealth redistribution of things like significantly raising income taxes on the wealthy as a means of financing things like large-scale public works programs, such as Bernie Sanders is advocating).
As for Bernie Sanders, I think it's very obvious that no other Democratic candidate can appeal to the party's youth to even a remotely comparable degree. That's one of the big reasons why you see so much more energy in and excitement around his camp than any other: he's got the support of the youth locked up with his bold, anti-establishment vision and unrivaled stances on issues like youth unemployment and college affordability. And though he won't win much corporate support, he's certainly a serious contender for the crucial labor vote. As you can gather from this demographic breakdown, Bernie will have a tough time defeating Hillary Clinton in a straightforward two-way race, but a three-way race could split the "party establishment" vote enough for him to really win and I think that's exciting. :smiley:
Put all that together and you have a formula for a close three-way race for the nomination. In case you're wondering what my preferences would be, here's the order in which I'd favor the various candidates on the Democratic side:
1. Bernie Sanders*
2. Hillary Clinton*
3. Lincoln Chafee
4. Martin O'Malley
---------------------Cut-off line.
5. Joe Biden*
6. Jim Webb
(I've placed an asterisk by the candidates who are and/or would be (as applicable) the serious contenders for the nomination; the ones with a real chance of winning it.)
I prefer the candidates who bring something novel and new to the table. Bernie Sanders brings the idea of democratic socialism and the potential to render socialism a respected idea and outlook in this country for the first time since before the Cold War, to say nothing of easily the most serious challenge to the corporate domination of our political system of any candidate running. Hillary Clinton brings the potential to have the first female president, and one who's strong on gender politics and got some pretty innovative ideas in terms of addressing wealth inequality. Lincoln Chafee brings a much-needed pacifistic, internationalist foreign policy perspective that seeks diplomatic rapprochement not only with countries like Cuba and Iran, but also with Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, and others currently considered off-limits where they shouldn't be. That's why they're my three favorites for the nomination. On the other end of the Democratic spectrum, Joe Biden would bring more of the same at best; basically a spiritual Obama third term (again, at best), and Jim Webb would bring a more right wing and militaristic perspective.
Just thought I'd share my general thoughts on this word about Biden perhaps (actually likely) getting into the Democratic race.
First off, let me just say that this is EXCELLENT NEWS for those of us in the Bernie Sanders camp because Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, according to all the polls, would be competing for the same votes, where Bernie represents a different section of the party and would, accordingly, be largely unaffected by Biden joining the race. In other words, for Biden to enter the race would split the "Democratic establishment" vote in two, thus creating a real opening for Bernie to potentially actually clinch the nomination! It's, to that end, a foolish move for their part, but it looks like fools they be! YaY! :smiley:
The result of Biden entering the race would likely be a close three-way contest. Don't rely on the current polls that include Joe Biden in assessing his potential, incidentally. Candidates pretty invariably get a big boost in support once they actually declare and one can definitely expect as much for Biden. He would probably have a significant base of support. However, he couldn't unite the party. Obama won the nomination in 2008 by uniting a specific coalition of forces that included centrist political independents, and especially the youth, as well as Latinos, African Americans, and the labor vote. Biden, with his more conservative politics and comparatively weak stand on the immigration issue relative to candidates like Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, has no chance of winning either the vote of the Democratic youth in the nomination race nor that of Latinos. Neither has he any chance of winning the vote of Democratic women overall, as he'd be the weakest of these three main candidates on issues of gender politics. (e.g. He describes himself as "pro-life", i.e. sees abortion as immoral, which is none too reassuring from the perspective of the women's movement, particularly amidst today's fast-moving wave of attacks on and new restrictions on women's reproductive rights. Similarly, it's been made clear vis-a-vis the leaks we've gotten from Biden's people that he would also be running for a terrible reason: simply to deny Hillary Clinton the nomination. That won't go over well with female voters.) However, his close connection to President Obama, who remains basically popular with African Americans, could win him the balance of the African American vote in the primaries, and he'd certainly attract the older, more conservative-leaning Democrats to his campaign; especially older white men. And, like Hillary Clinton, he's conservative enough to have some considerable access to corporate donations. (He's qualitatively more conservative than she is, in fact.) The question is whether he can translate an alliance of old, affluent white guys, potentially African Americans, and certainly a large swath of the corporate and financial aristocracy into the Democratic nomination for president.
It seems like Biden would, in the above connection, be up against roughly even competition from both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in terms of demographic appeal. Hillary Clinton seems likely to win the overall vote of Democratic women (e.g. currently two out of every three Democratic women support her campaign specifically, and her support base will probably only get more lopsidedly female if Biden enters the race and takes most of her male supporters), particularly since she is running pretty aggressively on gender politics, and also seems more likely than not to wind up the favorite of Latinos, who might be turned off by some of Bernie Sanders' historical proposals to reduce legal immigration to the United States (though he does support a path to citizenship for all 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the country), by his socialistic economic views (Latinos actually tend to be to the right of, and more optimistic about capitalism than, white people these days on economic issues), and by the refusal of the Obama Administration, including Joe Biden, to support the kind of tactics that Hillary Clinton has expressed a willingness to affect in terms of shielding larger numbers of undocumented immigrants and their children from deportation in the absence of immigration reform legislation from Congress. Plus she's obviously got a fair amount of corporate support (albeit not nearly as much as her rivals on the Republican side of the aisle) due to the somewhat more corporate-friendly, communitarian approach to reducing income inequality she's laid out (e.g. offering incentives for businesses to share profits with their workers, as opposed the more direct and forcible wealth redistribution of things like significantly raising income taxes on the wealthy as a means of financing things like large-scale public works programs, such as Bernie Sanders is advocating).
As for Bernie Sanders, I think it's very obvious that no other Democratic candidate can appeal to the party's youth to even a remotely comparable degree. That's one of the big reasons why you see so much more energy in and excitement around his camp than any other: he's got the support of the youth locked up with his bold, anti-establishment vision and unrivaled stances on issues like youth unemployment and college affordability. And though he won't win much corporate support, he's certainly a serious contender for the crucial labor vote. As you can gather from this demographic breakdown, Bernie will have a tough time defeating Hillary Clinton in a straightforward two-way race, but a three-way race could split the "party establishment" vote enough for him to really win and I think that's exciting. :smiley:
Put all that together and you have a formula for a close three-way race for the nomination. In case you're wondering what my preferences would be, here's the order in which I'd favor the various candidates on the Democratic side:
1. Bernie Sanders*
2. Hillary Clinton*
3. Lincoln Chafee
4. Martin O'Malley
---------------------Cut-off line.
5. Joe Biden*
6. Jim Webb
(I've placed an asterisk by the candidates who are and/or would be (as applicable) the serious contenders for the nomination; the ones with a real chance of winning it.)
I prefer the candidates who bring something novel and new to the table. Bernie Sanders brings the idea of democratic socialism and the potential to render socialism a respected idea and outlook in this country for the first time since before the Cold War, to say nothing of easily the most serious challenge to the corporate domination of our political system of any candidate running. Hillary Clinton brings the potential to have the first female president, and one who's strong on gender politics and got some pretty innovative ideas in terms of addressing wealth inequality. Lincoln Chafee brings a much-needed pacifistic, internationalist foreign policy perspective that seeks diplomatic rapprochement not only with countries like Cuba and Iran, but also with Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, and others currently considered off-limits where they shouldn't be. That's why they're my three favorites for the nomination. On the other end of the Democratic spectrum, Joe Biden would bring more of the same at best; basically a spiritual Obama third term (again, at best), and Jim Webb would bring a more right wing and militaristic perspective.
Just thought I'd share my general thoughts on this word about Biden perhaps (actually likely) getting into the Democratic race.