2012 U.S. Election Predictions

[IMPress Polly]

It is a proud boast that, among my friends, I have gained a reputation over the last six years for making highly accurate election predictions. So far I have been right (yes I keep track) in more than 98% of all cases. That said, I don't typically offer forecasts on outcomes this early in the game because too much can change between now and election day. It should therefore be understood that the following predictions for the 2012 U.S. election cycle are subject to change...like say until the week before election day. However, I feel fairly confident at this point to give a general and tentative prediction.

THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Definite Obama states:

1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Illinois
15. Minnesota
16. New Mexico
17. Washington
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Hawaii

Likely Obama states:

21. New Hampshire
22. Florida
23. Nevada

Definite Romney states:

1. North Carolina
2. South Carolina
3. West Virgina
4. Kentucky
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Indiana
8. Alabama
9. Mississippi
10. Missouri
11. Arkansas
12. Louisiana
13. North Dakota
14. South Dakota
15. Nebraska
16. Kansas
17. Oklahoma
18. Texas
19. Montana
20. Wyoming
21. Utah
22. Arizona
23. Idaho
24. Alaska

Pure Tossups:

1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. Colorado


According to my forecast above...

Current Scenario (Electoral Votes) EXCLUDING Likely Obama States:

Obama: 268
Romney: 206
Undecided: 64

Current Scenario (Electoral Votes) INCLUDING Likely Obama States:

Obama: 307
Romney: 206
Undecided: 25

Worst Case Scenario (Electoral Votes):

Romney: 270 <-- MUST win Florida, though not likely to; no other way to victory for Romney.
Obama: 268

Best Case Scenario (Electoral Votes):

Obama: 332
Romney: 206

Notes: Obama's almost certainly going to win re-election, in my opinion. Romney has to win many more undecided states than the president does and he absolutely MUST win Florida, which he presently is not. The only people who still think of Ohio as contested are the ones relying on skewed Rasmussen polls. All the other ones show Obama with a clear lead there (5 to 7 points) and pulling away. The only people who still think of Virginia as contested are those who haven't factored in Virgil Goode's already-shown ability to siphon off several percentage points from Romney's total. The fact that the said Constitution Party candidate is running such a powerful third party campaign in Virginia virtually guarantees Obama victory there. That leaves Florida as decisive for Romney. If he loses Florida then he has no chance of winning the presidency; no path to the magic 270 electoral votes. Nevada is also moving more solidly in Obama's direction with some pollsters now removing it from the "tossup" category. And Gary Johnson's campaign on the Libertarian Party ticket could prove at least a minor problem for Romney in both Nevada and Colorado. The Democrats are more united behind a single candidate. Rightists already proclaiming a Romney victory need a huge dose of sobriety. It's not likely.


THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Current Situation:

Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5

My Current Prediction:

Definite Gains:

Democrats gain: 14 seats

Republicans gain: 11 seats

Tossups among...

Republican-held seats: 7
Democratic-held seats: 6

Net Change I'm Currently Predicting:

Democrats gain 3 or 4 seats.

FINAL BALANCE: 241 or 242 Republicans, 193 or 194 Democrats.

Notes: As you can see, I'm not nearly as optimistic as Nancy Pelosi, who is persuaded the Democrats can gain at least 27 House seats in this election cycle. That might be true, but from what I know so far, I can't foresee that positive an outcome. I expect that the House will remain solidly controlled by the Republicans.


THE SENATE

Current Scenario:

51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

My Current Prediction:

Stays in the Democratic Camp:

1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. New Mexico
14. Washington
15. California
16. Hawaii

Switches from Republican to Democratic:

17. Maine

Stays Republican:

1. Massachusetts
2. Tennessee
3. Indiana
4. Mississippi
5. Texas
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Arizona
9. Nevada

Switches from Democratic to Republican:

10. Virginia
11. Wisconsin
12. North Dakota
13. Nebraska
14. Montana

Pure Tossup: Missouri

FINAL OUTCOME, BIG PICTURE:

Republicans: 51 or 52 (depending on Missouri)
Democrats: 46 or 47 (depending on Missouri)
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

EFFECTIVELY: 51-52 Republicans, 48-49 Democrats

Notes: What it all means is that Republicans, I believe, will experience a net gain of 4 to 5 Senate seats, thus switching overall control of the Senate from the Democrats to the Republicans. I'm not an optimist on the ability of the Democratic Party to retain the Senate.


GUBERNATORIAL RACES

Current balance of state governorships:

29 Republicans
20 Democrats

11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year.

Republicans will pick up either 3 or 4 governorships:

For sure:

1) North Carolina
2) Montana
3) Washington

Possible:

4) New Hampshire

FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

32 or 33 Republican governors
16 or 17 Democratic governors


BIG PICTURE

This won't be a good year for Democrats, realistically, mainly because of the Republicans' money advantage. Corporate America clearly sides with the Republicans and now has the ability to funnel unlimited monies into election campaigns either directly or indirectly. I suspect that while President Obama will win a second term, he will have to deal with an even more hostile Congress in that not one but both chambers will now be controlled by the opposition party, which will block pretty much everything he tries to do. I don't think progressives should be too optimistic in an overall sense. Too many people are making highly ambitious forecasts that aren't realistic. Sobriety is called for on the left in particular, but also more generally.

[Trinnity]

None of this means anything to me (I don't mean that to be offensive) because I think the polls are mostly flawed, and people are much more angry with Obama's bungling of his job than any of the polls are reflecting. I think there will be a groundswell on election day, and he will lose by a minimum of 3 points, likely by 5, or as much as 7.

Romney has to step up and be more aggressive on attacking Obama's record though. He has to make the case and drive it home.

Obama's record is abysmal. He can't defend it, without excuses and lies.

[IMPress Polly]

Well I'm relying primarily on objective data and trends here, not on subjective, unchecked emotion. Just because you or I feel a certain way doesn't mean that everyone else does. We'll see though.

[IGetItAlready]

Well I'm relying primarily on objective data and trends here, not on subjective, unchecked emotion. Just because you or I feel a certain way doesn't mean that everyone else does.

Don't forget to figure in the Bradley Effect.
It's the only thing keeping the polling data this close so although people are going to vote however they're going to vote, it will play a significant role in the level of disappointment that will run through the DNC after the election based on expectations created by the current poll trends.
Of course immediately thereafter, we'll be inundated with further cries of "racism" and it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see some rioting over night on the 6th and throughout the day on the 7th. I was in CA for the King riots. I saw the way those people shit all over their own nests and then simply moved north. Using virtually ANYONE'S stats on the percentage of the black vote that went to Obama, the vast majority of those same folks would also call themselves Obama supporters.

[IMPress Polly]

Pfff, okay, I wish I never posted the OP. This thread is clearly just going to wind up another series of mindless ideological lectures by rightists on how anything other than a complete Republican sweep of virtually every seat in the government is impossible and any data suggesting otherwise is just part of a grand left wing conspiracy orchestrated directly from the White House. :rollseyes:

[GCF]

My Current Prediction:

Stays in the Democratic Camp:

1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. New Mexico
14. Washington
15. California
16. Hawaii



Mindless dripple, WV is no longer a democratic state, it will diffently go republican this year an likely stay that way.

Ohio an Florida, no one of any intelligence would say these are nothing more then toss-ups but with Republican Governors they lean Republican an yes I predict both go to Romney, an that is the election! It is the election if one goes much or less both!

New Mexico, Romney now leading in NM! NM is at best a toss-up.

[IGetItAlready]

Pfff, okay, I wish I never posted the OP. This thread is clearly just going to wind up another series of mindless ideological lectures by rightists on how anything other than a complete Republican sweep of virtually every seat in the government is impossible and any data suggesting otherwise is just part of a grand left wing conspiracy orchestrated directly from the White House. :rollseyes:

All I'm saying is don't set yourself up for a hella bad November 6th by buying into the pollster's data, some of whom are clearly being intimidated into using administration approved models. :wink20:

[IMPress Polly]

Believe what you want to believe. You'll probably learn the hard way in less than two months.

[IGetItAlready]

Believe what you want to believe. You'll probably learn the hard way in less than two months.

Or perhaps you will.
And if that's the case, don't get all crazy about it. :wink20:

[Peter1469]

I think the OP is spot on with Virgina. Virgil Goode may allow Obama to win in November.

But, one thing to remember about these polls: Obama supporters are not really excited. Many may decide to not vote at all. Romney voters tend to be excited and that is growing with independents. I think if people can look past the MSM's clearly erroneous and pro-Obama reporting on the murder of his ambassador and the associated riots over the ME, Obama's numbers will drop like a stone dropped into a pond.

This could turn into a landslide victory.


However, I would like to thank Polly for her thoughtful post and the time it took her to write it.

[Trinnity]

Well I'm relying primarily on objective data and trends here, not on subjective, unchecked emotion. Just because you or I feel a certain way doesn't mean that everyone else does. We'll see though.The polls are based on outdated models in some cases, oversample dems in quite a few cases, and are generally flawed.

But I'll tell ya, this election is gonna be greatly affected by emotion. People are suffering. People are exhausted, frustrated, and angry. Those emotions will be in play, big time, when people vote on the 6th.

[Chris]

I tend to agree with the OP as to outcomes, it complies with much of what I've heard. The Reps got quite a bounce out of Ryan and their convention, Obama little out of his, but that last few days have seen Obama rising and Romney falling:

http://i.snag.gy/ySL7p.jpg

Dems take White House, Reps keep House and take Senate. A divided government will get little done, and that's a good thing.

[Mainecoons]

Obama will "govern" by executive order and trash the Constitution even more. That is why he needs to go.

[IMPress Polly]

Peter wrote:
But, one thing to remember about these polls: Obama supporters are not really excited. Many may decide to not vote at all. Romney voters tend to be excited and that is growing with independents. I think if people can look past the MSM's clearly erroneous and pro-Obama reporting on the murder of his ambassador and the associated riots over the ME, Obama's numbers will drop like a stone dropped into a pond.

A recent Fox News poll (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/12/fox-news-poll-obama-has-lead-over-romney-in-post-convention-poll/) suggests that, in the wake of the conventions, the enthusiasm gap is now a thing of the past. Quote:


...Romney supporters were 10 points more likely than Obama supporters to say it is “extremely” important their candidate wins (64 percent to 54 percent) before the conventions. That enthusiasm edge has evaporated. Now, 63 percent of Romney supporters and 62 percent of Obama supporters believe it is extremely important their candidate wins.

It also indicates that Romney's lead over Obama amongst independent voters is a thing of the past:


The conventions helped a number of undecided independents pick a candidate. Before the Republican convention in Tampa, independents backed Romney by a 10-point margin (42-32 percent) and 26 percent were undecided. Today independents go for Obama by 5 points (44-39 percent) and 17 percent are undecided.


Peter wrote:
This could turn into a landslide victory.

It will NOT be a landslide for either candidate.

Right now it very much seems to me that, in terms of the presidential race, everything is riding on the debate performances. That's what's going to make up the minds of most remaining undecided voters. Romney needs to make a spectacular performance during the first one in order to regain any sense of momentum for his campaign. I'm confident in the speaking abilities of his competition, however. Maybe that's a reflection of political bias on my part, but time will tell on that one.

Some people compare Romney to Reagan, arguing that he'll wind up with a last-minute come-from-behind victory. Not likely. Even Reagan was doing better in his campaign at this point in the game in 1980. He was winning. More importantly, Romney doesn't have the personality. Great leaders remake their parties in their image. Romney, by contrast, is such a weak leader that his party is remaking HIM in THEIR image. He's no Reagan. Not by a long shot.

[Chris]

Obama will "govern" by executive order and trash the Constitution even more. That is why he needs to go.

I'm sure he'll try. And we'll get to see if a Republican Congress can stand up to him.

[IGetItAlready]

I'm sure he'll try. And we'll get to see if a Republican Congress can stand up to him.

Congress and our founding documents mean nothing to Obama. Fortunately for him he's got a hell of a lot of supporters who are in full agreement on those items.

[Mainecoons]

The other problem is the aging conservatives on the Supreme Court. We sure don't want Obama picking any more judges. Those last two were real lulus.

[IGetItAlready]

The other problem is the aging conservatives on the Supreme Court. We sure don't want Obama picking any more judges. Those last two were real lulus.

It WOULD be time to look for a new home were Obama to own the court as he intends. Unfortunately there's no place to run to.
At that point our only recourse will be that laid out by our founders.
Is America still American enough to take back what is theirs?
Doubtful at best.

[Chris]

And Roberts who defended Obamacare as a tax was nominated by a Republican, true, Bush was more liberal than conservative, but Roberts sure seemed conservative. You just can't tell how justices will turn out.

[Calypso Jones]

And Roberts who defended Obamacare as a tax was nominated by a Republican, true, Bush was more liberal than conservative, but Roberts sure seemed conservative. You just can't tell how justices will turn out.

Disappointing. Betrayal. John Bader Roberts

[URF8]

Pfff, okay, I wish I never posted the OP. This thread is clearly just going to wind up another series of mindless ideological lectures by rightists on how anything other than a complete Republican sweep of virtually every seat in the government is impossible and any data suggesting otherwise is just part of a grand left wing conspiracy orchestrated directly from the White House. :rollseyes:
At the moment I think your analysis is likely correct. What may happen is that millions of Republicans will give up on America.

The Democrats are very good about winning elections because they have altered the demographics of America. But they will never be able to govern. Thank you for your insight and good work in putting the OP together.

[URF8]

In a second Obama term race relations between blacks and whites will collapse.

[Peter1469]

A recent Fox News poll (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/12/fox-news-poll-obama-has-lead-over-romney-in-post-convention-poll/) suggests that, in the wake of the conventions, the enthusiasm gap is now a thing of the past. Quote:



It also indicates that Romney's lead over Obama amongst independent voters is a thing of the past:





It will NOT be a landslide for either candidate.

Right now it very much seems to me that, in terms of the presidential race, everything is riding on the debate performances. That's what's going to make up the minds of most remaining undecided voters. Romney needs to make a spectacular performance during the first one in order to regain any sense of momentum for his campaign. I'm confident in the speaking abilities of his competition, however. Maybe that's a reflection of political bias on my part, but time will tell on that one.

Some people compare Romney to Reagan, arguing that he'll wind up with a last-minute come-from-behind victory. Not likely. Even Reagan was doing better in his campaign at this point in the game in 1980. He was winning. More importantly, Romney doesn't have the personality. Great leaders remake their parties in their image. Romney, by contrast, is such a weak leader that his party is remaking HIM in THEIR image. He's no Reagan. Not by a long shot.


I don't disagree with your assessment Polly. The MSM is fighting to keep Obama credible. Take that out, and it would be a landslide. Of course that isn't going to happen.

As always, thanks for your thoughtful responses. Don't let the negative types get you down.

[IMPress Polly]

Well no prob. Thanks for yours!

I did have one question: what's MSM? When I put MSM into a Google search, here's the first page that came up. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methylsulfonylmethane) I'm pretty sure that's not what you're referencing though. :wink:

[Calypso Jones]

Excuse me for inserting myself but i wanted you to have the answer in case the poster you were addressing was offline. MSM is Main Stream Media. I personally like to call them the BM.....Big Media. :wink:

[Calypso Jones]

If you heard Ryan speak yesterday as i did, you wouldn't need a debate. I'm ready to vote.

[IMPress Polly]

Aaaaaah! Thanks! (On the MSM explanation.)

[Chris]

The alphetbets, ABC, NBC, CNN, FNC, NYT...

[Mainecoons]

You know, I'm somewhat of a history junkie and find the Weimar period and the rise of the Nazis particularly interesting. One of the most interestiing things about the latter is how the intelligentia including the media deluded themselves in the early years into thinking he was a savior and ignoring or covering up the abuses and growing lawlessness of the Nazis. The German people really didn't know what was going on until it was too late because their own news media and glitterati convinced themselves, and hence the general population, that Hitler was saving them from the chaos and fiscal collapse of Weimar and making Germany strong again.

The Nazis didn't have to force the media and intelligentia to support them, they did so willingly until it was too late. They volunteered for service before they were impressed into it. This is a very key point because it is how a fascist takeover gains sufficient traction to, well, take over.

And they had their followers in the population because they used control of education and (first) media complicity followed by total media control, to create them. That's how they ended up with their cadres of "Pollys and Cigars" (no offense intended just giving examples of what true believers look like.

Once they were firmly entrenched, the Nazis liquidated most of the media and the educated elite.

Here, we seem to be in the early stages of a progressive takeover with similar behavior by the same people. The "stars" and the media gush over Obama and ignore the accumulating abuses of the rule of law and the accumulating evidences of fraud. It is so bad with this guy that he can out himself as a liar about his past and it goes ignored.

While this is going on, just as in the early stages, the government is preparing itself to control the people. Daily, the "Homeland Security" and TSA grow stronger and more oppressive and begin to arm themselves. Meantime, the Obamaites quitely consolidate their power. For example, it should be plain to everyone now that the administration is calling shots over at the Federal Reserve, an entity that is supposed to be above any single administration.

The only thing different here is that the people, particularly in the hinterlands, are armed to the teeth. In the end, the takeover will fail because the progressives/statists/fascists won't be able to control the countryside.

But they are going to try.

And that, folks, is why it is absolutely critical to get this Manchurian President and Fraud out of office. You won't get a second chance to stop this any more than the Germans who knew better did.

[Peter1469]

Well no prob. Thanks for yours!

I did have one question: what's MSM? When I put MSM into a Google search, here's the first page that came up. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methylsulfonylmethane) I'm pretty sure that's not what you're referencing though. :wink:

Main Stream Media. Also known as the Information Officers of the Democratic National Council.

[Captain Obvious]

Main stream media

[IMPress Polly]

Calypso beat ya to it, so no thanks for you. :wink:

[Peter1469]

Calypso beat ya to it, so no thanks for you. :wink:

No wonder you got spanked on your birth day.....

[Captain Obvious]

Calypso beat ya to it, so no thanks for you. :wink:

http://www.openmarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/no_soup_for_you.jpg

[Calypso Jones]

You know, I'm somewhat of a history junkie and find the Weimar period and the rise of the Nazis particularly interesting. One of the most interestiing things about the latter is how the intelligentia including the media deluded themselves in the early years into thinking he was a savior and ignoring or covering up the abuses and growing lawlessness of the Nazis. The German people really didn't know what was going on until it was too late because their own news media and glitterati convinced themselves, and hence the general population, that Hitler was saving them from the chaos and fiscal collapse of Weimar and making Germany strong again.

And they had their followers in the population because they used control of education and (first) media complicity followed by total media control, to create them. That's how they ended up with their cadres of "Pollys and Cigars" (no offense intended just giving examples of what true believers look like.

Once they were firmly entrenched, the Nazis liquidated most of the media and the educated elite.

Here, we seem to be in the early stages of a progressive takeover with similar behavior by the same people. The "stars" and the media gush over Obama and ignore the accumulating abuses of the rule of law and the accumulating evidences of fraud. It is so bad with this guy that he can out himself as a liar about his past and it goes ignored.

While this is going on, just as in the early stages, the government is preparing itself to control the people. Daily, the "Homeland Security" and TSA grow stronger and more oppressive and begin to arm themselves. Meantime, the Obamaites quitely consolidate their power. For example, it should be plain to everyone now that the administration is calling shots over at the Federal Reserve, an entity that is supposed to be above any single administration.

The only thing different here is that the people, particularly in the hinterlands, are armed to the teeth. In the end, the takeover will fail because the progressives/statists/fascists won't be able to control the countryside.

But they are going to try.

And that, folks, is why it is absolutely critical to get this Manchurian President and Fraud out of office. You won't get a second chance to stop this any more than the Germans who knew better did.

whoa. kickass post.

[JohnAdams]

Well I'm relying primarily on objective data and trends here, not on subjective, unchecked emotion. Just because you or I feel a certain way doesn't mean that everyone else does. We'll see though.

And your data for your prediction that Obama will carry Ohio, and it's mass electoral votes is?

As an Ohioan I can assure you, that your data in that respect is flawed at best. IF the data is telling you that THE OBAMA will carry the state. Yes he will most likely carry Cleveland, and maybe Toledo, but those are also both heavily African American urban area's, and typically Democrat strongholds anyways.

(And sad to say but apparently yes for some, a great many African Americans, race does play a part in it, as according to the last Presidential election the numbers state that over 95 percent of African Americans cast a vote for The Obama, as opposed to his opponent, based upon,. and purely because, they perceived that The Obama is a "black man" eventhough since his mother is Caucasian, and race is determined through the maternal line, he is technically and genetically a white man, as white as they come but I digress).

As an Ohioan, I can report that for a FACT there are even long time, dyed in the wool, staunch Democrats in Ohio who are everybit as pissed off at the job THE OBAMA has done as any Republican, or Tea Party Conservative, or Constitutionalist in the great State of Ohio is.

It has quite rather alot to do with three things. A: Obama's bald faced lies to either the American people, or the United States supreme court regarding the Obamacare mandate. B: The economic situation in this nation, IE: the joblessness and inability to find decent, good paying jobs currently. C: The Obama's politically motivated attacks on the coal industry in this nation overall, and in this state in particular, and it's resultant whopper of an increase in home heating and energy bill rates for Ohioans. D: The continuing high cost of gasoline at the pump.

You're "prediction" about the great State of Ohio is wrong, and frankly I think we are all going to pleasantly find that your prediction overall this time, was wrong.

Far to many people in the "street" are already saying that The Obama needs to be a one term President, even IF in order to effect that, we have to elect Mitt Romney or Mickey Mouse, or a can of Tuna Fish.

If anything the only truly reliable data out there, for us to go on, as a "predictor" of how things may go, is our most recent election results from the mid terms.

Given that in the Mid-terms the DNC lost so badly, if we go by those, then we must also conclude that the DNC in general, and The Obama campaign in particular are going to lose, and lose badly.

Hence I predict, subject to change up to and including the day of the elections (wink wink J/K), that The Obama is going to lose by a landslide.

As for your prediction being subject to change up and until a week prior to the General Election, that's hardly a "prediction" then.

I mean unless one is blind, mute, deaf, and dumb, a week prior to the election, it's always pretty clear who the winner is going to be, sorry but making a "prediction" about who will win the General Elections one week prior is like Edgar Gayce, showing up to sell us all miracle cure, snakeoil if you know that that means. ;)

[IMPress Polly]

JohnAdams wrote:
And your data for your prediction that Obama will carry Ohio, and it's mass electoral votes is?

Pretty much every non-Rasmussen poll from the last month and especially from the last two weeks. (Rasmussen uses a uniquely skewed sampling method.) The trend favors Obama and shows him pulling away in Ohio even more so than in many other swing states. As a recent example, consider this new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. (http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-leads-swing-states/2012/09/13/id/451783)

[IGetItAlready]

Pretty much every non-Rasmussen poll from the last month and especially from the last two weeks. (Rasmussen uses a uniquely skewed sampling method.) The trend favors Obama and shows him pulling away in Ohio even more so than in many other swing states. As a recent example, consider this new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. (http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-leads-swing-states/2012/09/13/id/451783)

I thought it was Gallup that used the Democrat unfriendly models...or have they been sued into compliance with Axlerod?

[IMPress Polly]

I take basically all polls seriously except for Rasmussen's. CNN, Gallup, NBC, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, CBS, Marist, ABC, etc. etc. They clearly have an agenda.

[IGetItAlready]

I mean unless one is blind, mute, deaf, and dumb, a week prior to the election, it's always pretty clear who the winner is going to be, sorry but making a "prediction" about who will win the General Elections one week prior is like Edgar Gayce, showing up to sell us all miracle cure, snakeoil if you know that that means. ;)

I see this one going right down to the wire. And if we see the Bradley Effect play the part I believe it will, there should be no reason for it to go to the wire.
But what are you going to do? The first black president brought with him the first exercise of racial immunity so until the votes are counted anything less than, "Obama's the bestest" is labeled bigoted.

Wow, just think of American politics without all the baseless claims of racism again...
It'll be like freaking Christmas everyday!

[IGetItAlready]

I take basically all polls seriously except for Rasmussen's. CNN, Gallup, NBC, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, CBS, Marist, ABC, etc. etc. They clearly have an agenda.

You may be getting your talking points confused.
Check again, it's Gallop that is being threatened with litigation for their polling models. :wink20:

[GrumpyDog]

You know, I'm somewhat of a history junkie and find the Weimar period and the rise of the Nazis particularly interesting. One of the most interestiing things about the latter is how the intelligentia including the media deluded themselves in the early years into thinking he was a savior and ignoring or covering up the abuses and growing lawlessness of the Nazis. The German people really didn't know what was going on until it was too late because their own news media and glitterati convinced themselves, and hence the general population, that Hitler was saving them from the chaos and fiscal collapse of Weimar and making Germany strong again.

The Nazis didn't have to force the media and intelligentia to support them, they did so willingly until it was too late. They volunteered for service before they were impressed into it. This is a very key point because it is how a fascist takeover gains sufficient traction to, well, take over.

And they had their followers in the population because they used control of education and (first) media complicity followed by total media control, to create them. That's how they ended up with their cadres of "Pollys and Cigars" (no offense intended just giving examples of what true believers look like.

Once they were firmly entrenched, the Nazis liquidated most of the media and the educated elite.

Here, we seem to be in the early stages of a progressive takeover with similar behavior by the same people. The "stars" and the media gush over Obama and ignore the accumulating abuses of the rule of law and the accumulating evidences of fraud. It is so bad with this guy that he can out himself as a liar about his past and it goes ignored.

While this is going on, just as in the early stages, the government is preparing itself to control the people. Daily, the "Homeland Security" and TSA grow stronger and more oppressive and begin to arm themselves. Meantime, the Obamaites quitely consolidate their power. For example, it should be plain to everyone now that the administration is calling shots over at the Federal Reserve, an entity that is supposed to be above any single administration.

The only thing different here is that the people, particularly in the hinterlands, are armed to the teeth. In the end, the takeover will fail because the progressives/statists/fascists won't be able to control the countryside.

But they are going to try.

And that, folks, is why it is absolutely critical to get this Manchurian President and Fraud out of office. You won't get a second chance to stop this any more than the Germans who knew better did.


Don't worry Maines, the Amercian people have figured out the Tea Party and recognized Romney/Ryan early on this time. So no chance for Hitler elite to be elected. However, we will still be watching to make sure that voters are allowed to vote, and that some districts run by the SA do not try to remove Obama from the ballot.:flag:

[Mainecoons]

You really missed the point, didn't you?

[IGetItAlready]

You really missed the point, didn't you?

Wow, I'm pretty sure he was acting as a visual aid to your point...I hope.

[Mainecoons]

Yes, but I expect it was unintentional.

:grin:

[Mainecoons]

I might add that Hitler's big early attractions included restoring the currency and putting Germans back to work.

Ya sure can't accuse Obama of either. :rofl:

[URF8]

The Democrats have the game so wired that a different approach is needed. First of all it is important to recognize that America and the United States are not the same thing. The former is a land, a series of tribes, and a state of mind. The latter is a polity that is used by the Democrats to impose their will and ideology on those tribes.

The new approach is to collapse the United States itself so that it can no longer function on a coherent basis. This has happened many times throughout history.

It can be accomplished by detaching one's loyalty and affection from the United States. Don't invest in the US. Don't create jobs for the US. Keep the US paralyzed politically. This prevents the polity from adapting to a rapidly changing world.

There are forces of history and processes of economics that are sweeping across the world. These forces and processes can be used to assist us in collapsing a paralyzed polity. The standard of living in this country will continue to be diminished unless the natural resources of the US are developed. I'm speaking about natural gas and shale oil.

If those resources aren't developed the people of the country will be impoverished incrementally. Let this happen.

I say these things with regret, but with the reelection of Obama the polity will already be lost. America can only be saved if the United States passes into oblivion.