Why Donald Trump Is Winning and Bernie Sanders Isn't

[JVV]

Why Donald Trump Is Winning and Bernie Sanders Isn't (http://fortune.com/2016/03/03/why-donald-trump-is-winning-and-bernie-sanders-isnt/)


....

The two are in many ways remarkably similar. Each is trying to become his party’s presidential nominee, and each is tapping into the anger and resentment of voters who feel they’re being cheated by a class of people who are denying them the secure jobs and rising living standard they’ve earned. Voters who think the source of their pain is in Washington vote for Trump, and those who think it’s on Wall Street vote for Sanders. Further, both candidates are performing the same, drawing around 35% to 40% support on average, with a few higher or lower exceptions.

And yet – one is the political phenomenon of the age, front page news every day, and looking ever more like his party’s nominee. The other looks like one of those curiosities who occur in every cycle, whose flame flares brightly but briefly, and who will be remembered in a year as a footnote, if at all.

....


As the article notes, the lack of competition on the left is a huge factor in why the coronation of Hillary Clinton was allowed to continue.

Also, the presence of Trump in the race helped the media not focus on Sanders' record-setting grass roots support.

Trump and the media's willingness to go for cheap ratings instead of fair reporting are why Hillary will likely be the next president.

But she's still not guaranteed to win. Not even against Trump. That's how weak she is and how angry the country is.


Sanders could have been a healthy, honest, principled path forward if Democrats hadn't pushed the narrative of Hillary's inevitability. But Democrats let the power of big money make them concede the race to Hillary's deep pockets before it ever got off the ground.

So once again, it's about Democrats behaving undemocratically.

[Cigar]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcgJgw_W4AAG85E.jpg

[Peter1469]

The GOP rank and file understand that their leaders are utterly and completely corrupt. The Democratic rank and file still worship their leaders almost as ancient gods.



Why Donald Trump Is Winning and Bernie Sanders Isn't (http://fortune.com/2016/03/03/why-donald-trump-is-winning-and-bernie-sanders-isnt/)



As the article notes, the lack of competition on the left is a huge factor in why the coronation of Hillary Clinton was allowed to continue.

Also, the presence of Trump in the race helped the media not focus on Sanders' record-setting grass roots support.

Trump and the media's willingness to go for cheap ratings instead of fair reporting are why Hillary will likely be the next president.

But she's still not guaranteed to win. Not even against Trump. That's how weak she is and how angry the country is.


Sanders could have been a healthy, honest, principled path forward if Democrats hadn't pushed the narrative of Hillary's inevitability. But Democrats let the power of big money make them concede the race to Hillary's deep pockets before it ever got off the ground.

So once again, it's about Democrats behaving undemocratically.

[Green Arrow]

Part of the problem is also that both Sanders and Trump are actually getting people into the system who have never really participated much in the political process. Trump's are people that have been eligible to vote for years but don't normally participate, while Sanders' supporters are typically the under-35 crowd that just hasn't been eligible to vote for more than one or two presidential cycles. Myself, for example, I'm a huge Bernie guy but I wasn't eligible to vote in 2008. I'm also an atypical under-35er because I'm considerably more politically involved than most people my age. I was advising adults on ballot options at age 12.

I do disagree with the idea that Sanders isn't winning, however. CNN did a great piece on this after most of the Super Tuesday results had been known.

On the Republican side, Trump has won 329 delegates so far. Cruz has won 231, Rubio has won 110, and Kasich has won 25. Trump won seven states on Super Tuesday for a grand total of 10 out of 15 states that have voted so far. Cruz has won 4 states. Yet, despite winning the vast majority of contests and a full 6 states more than his closest challenger, Trump only has 98 more delegates than Cruz. Now, all of this can change if Trump wins the winner-take-all primaries that hit March 15th. Florida, Illinois, and Ohio are all winner-take-all, all vote on the same day (dubbed by some as "Colossal Tuesday"), and all have a pretty big delegate total: 99, 69, and 66 respectively. Trump only has to win the three with a simple plurality to get every single one of those delegates. It's a tall order for the other candidates to try and win those, and if Trump wins all three that could very well be the end and all hope of a brokered convention will likely go with them. But to describe Trump as unbeatable and inevitable at this point, as the media has done, is premature. Especially since Kasich has finally gotten media and debate time and we're entering a part of the cycle that favors him.

By a similar token, the only real advantage Hillary has at this point is the superdelegates. If we take the superdelegates out of the equation and just count the hard delegates that are actually earned, Hillary's delegate lead over Bernie is actually very, very slight. She has 601 delegates to Bernie's 409. That's just a lead of 192 delegates, but like with Kasich in the GOP race, the Democratic primaries are leaving territory that benefits Clinton and entering territory that benefits Bernie. Tomorrow Kansas, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine all vote on the Democratic side. Louisiana is still solidly in Hillary's wheelhouse as part of the south, she leads Bernie 61-14 in the latest polls from RCP. RCP doesn't have any recent polling out of Nebraska, Kansas, or Maine, but the Wichita Eagle (http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article63574787.html) argues that Oklahoma's primary results should largely dictate Kansas' results, and Bernie won Oklahoma 51.9% to 41.5%. ISideWith isn't the most scientific poll, but it has Maine going Sanders (https://www.isidewith.com/2016-democratic-primary-poll/801555698/9333319) 70%-30% and Hillary's own campaign is already downplaying the results from this weekend's primaries and caucuses (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-democratic-caucuses_us_56d9a5e1e4b0000de4043b82), so that's a good sign for Sanders even in Louisiana. It's also important to remember that the entire Democratic race is proportional, there are no winner-take-all states, so even if Bernie loses he wins.

The media is trying to shape the race in favor of Trump and Clinton but the evidence does not show either of them as inevitable, and it certainly indicates Trump is more inevitable than Hillary. Let's not write Bernie off yet.

[JVV]

I'm not writing Bernie off.

But the way the media reports the delegate situation -- counting the superdelegates in so that it looks like Hillary has won twice as many delegates -- it makes the average voter think that there is not much chance in fighting for Bernie.

That is one of the many ways the media has helped to suppress the Democratic primary vote.


It will be ironic if that suppresses the general election vote also.



On a related now, apparently Hillary will be counted as having as many delegates as Sanders in Colorado in spite of his decisive victory there. The super-delegates keep saying that they don't give a flip what the citizens of their states say. And they don't seem to have a clue about how short-sighted this is. Democrats need turnout. But the DNC and superdelegates are doing their best to demoralize potential voters.

[Mister D]

I'm not writing Bernie off.

But the way the media reports the delegate situation -- counting the superdelegates in so that it looks like Hillary has won twice as many delegates -- it makes the average voter think that there is not much chance in fighting for Bernie.

That is one of the many ways the media has helped to suppress the Democratic primary vote.


It will be ironic if that suppresses the general election vote also.



On a related now, apparently Hillary will be counted as having as many delegates as Sanders in Colorado in spite of his decisive victory there. The super-delegates keep saying that they don't give a flip what the citizens of their states say. And they don't seem to have a clue about how short-sighted this is. Democrats need turnout. But the DNC and superdelegates are doing their best to demoralize potential voters.

You can write Bernie off and that's because there is a far greater deal of conformity on the American left than there is on the American right. Granted, you can spin that and call it political discipline. However you want to put the end result is a certain dissatisfaction among...well people like yourself who will nonetheless pull the lever for Hillary Clinton.

[Ethereal]

The DNC elites are already decided on Clinton. And apparently they are not worried about the fallout from this. They must be assuming that Sanders supporters will grumble and complain, but will ultimately go out and vote for Hillary Clinton come election time. And although I realize some Sanders supporters will stay home, I doubt it will be to any significant degree. In other words, the DNC elites will probably pay little to no price for their contemptuous disregard of democracy, and that is exactly why they will keep doing it for the foreseeable future. So unless and until the populists in the Democrat party punish the leadership for their bad behavior, they have no inventive to change their ways.

[Mister D]

The DNC elites are already decided on Clinton. And apparently they are not worried about the fallout from this. They must be assuming that Sanders supporters will grumble and complain, but will ultimately go out and vote for Hillary Clinton come election time. And although I realize some Sanders supporters will stay home, I doubt it will be to any significant degree. In other words, the DNC elites will probably pay little to no price for their contemptuous disregard of democracy, and that is exactly why they will keep doing it for the foreseeable future. So unless and until the populists in the Democrat party punish the leadership for their bad behavior, they have no inventive to change their ways.

That

[Crepitus]

Why Donald Trump Is Winning and Bernie Sanders Isn't (http://fortune.com/2016/03/03/why-donald-trump-is-winning-and-bernie-sanders-isnt/)



As the article notes, the lack of competition on the left is a huge factor in why the coronation of Hillary Clinton was allowed to continue.

Also, the presence of Trump in the race helped the media not focus on Sanders' record-setting grass roots support.

Trump and the media's willingness to go for cheap ratings instead of fair reporting are why Hillary will likely be the next president.

But she's still not guaranteed to win. Not even against Trump. That's how weak she is and how angry the country is.


Sanders could have been a healthy, honest, principled path forward if Democrats hadn't pushed the narrative of Hillary's inevitability. But Democrats let the power of big money make them concede the race to Hillary's deep pockets before it ever got off the ground.

So once again, it's about Democrats behaving undemocratically.
It's not democrats who have done this, it's the party leadership, the DNC.

Mostly against the will of the average democratic voter IMHO.

[Mister D]

It's not democrats who have done this, it's the party leadership, the DNC.

Mostly against the will of the average democratic voter IMHO.

And you can argue that's a good thing but there really does appear to be greater freedom on the right.

[JVV]

You can write Bernie off and that's because there is a far greater deal of conformity on the American left than there is on the American right. Granted, you can spin that and call it political discipline. However you want to put the end result is a certain dissatisfaction among...well people like yourself who will nonetheless pull the lever for Hillary Clinton.



I will not pull the lever for Clinton.

I will write in Bernie Sanders if he is not the nominee.

I'm not a Democrat. I find Democrats to be undemocratic. I will not fall in line. I know that they think they don't need to be responsive to citizens because what alternative do liberals have? The Democratic party's message is, "Republicans are scary so vote for us." My message is, "Get back with me when you're ready to start engaging and empowering the public."



Hopefully Democrats will look around and consider how many more people there are like me and take a second look at whether or not Hillary is more electable than Sanders.

[JVV]

The DNC elites are already decided on Clinton. And apparently they are not worried about the fallout from this. They must be assuming that Sanders supporters will grumble and complain, but will ultimately go out and vote for Hillary Clinton come election time. And although I realize some Sanders supporters will stay home, I doubt it will be to any significant degree. In other words, the DNC elites will probably pay little to no price for their contemptuous disregard of democracy, and that is exactly why they will keep doing it for the foreseeable future. So unless and until the populists in the Democrat party punish the leadership for their bad behavior, they have no inventive to change their ways.


That is why I'm voting for Sanders no matter what. If the Democrats need my vote in order for Hillary to win, then they need to reconsider running Hillary.

[Mark III]

That is why I'm voting for Sanders no matter what. If the Democrats need my vote in order for Hillary to win, then they need to reconsider running Hillary.

What if everyone said that? lol

What if Hillary does actually need your vote? Will you come to her rescue?

[JVV]

What if everyone said that? lol

What if Hillary does actually need your vote? Will you come to her rescue?


I'm not a Democrat.

Until Democrats show me I can trust them, I have no reason to help save their hypocritical candidates from GOP candidates whom they should be able to beat with both hands tied behind their backs. If they didn't have any reasonable choice other than Hillary, I might have voted for her. But since they had such a wonderful alternative and are instead choosing Hillary, no I won't come to her rescue.

[Peter1469]

Good post. But the difference with Trump is that there are a lot more candidates in the GOP primary than in the democratic primary.


Part of the problem is also that both Sanders and Trump are actually getting people into the system who have never really participated much in the political process. Trump's are people that have been eligible to vote for years but don't normally participate, while Sanders' supporters are typically the under-35 crowd that just hasn't been eligible to vote for more than one or two presidential cycles. Myself, for example, I'm a huge Bernie guy but I wasn't eligible to vote in 2008. I'm also an atypical under-35er because I'm considerably more politically involved than most people my age. I was advising adults on ballot options at age 12.

I do disagree with the idea that Sanders isn't winning, however. CNN did a great piece on this after most of the Super Tuesday results had been known.

On the Republican side, Trump has won 329 delegates so far. Cruz has won 231, Rubio has won 110, and Kasich has won 25. Trump won seven states on Super Tuesday for a grand total of 10 out of 15 states that have voted so far. Cruz has won 4 states. Yet, despite winning the vast majority of contests and a full 6 states more than his closest challenger, Trump only has 98 more delegates than Cruz. Now, all of this can change if Trump wins the winner-take-all primaries that hit March 15th. Florida, Illinois, and Ohio are all winner-take-all, all vote on the same day (dubbed by some as "Colossal Tuesday"), and all have a pretty big delegate total: 99, 69, and 66 respectively. Trump only has to win the three with a simple plurality to get every single one of those delegates. It's a tall order for the other candidates to try and win those, and if Trump wins all three that could very well be the end and all hope of a brokered convention will likely go with them. But to describe Trump as unbeatable and inevitable at this point, as the media has done, is premature. Especially since Kasich has finally gotten media and debate time and we're entering a part of the cycle that favors him.

By a similar token, the only real advantage Hillary has at this point is the superdelegates. If we take the superdelegates out of the equation and just count the hard delegates that are actually earned, Hillary's delegate lead over Bernie is actually very, very slight. She has 601 delegates to Bernie's 409. That's just a lead of 192 delegates, but like with Kasich in the GOP race, the Democratic primaries are leaving territory that benefits Clinton and entering territory that benefits Bernie. Tomorrow Kansas, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine all vote on the Democratic side. Louisiana is still solidly in Hillary's wheelhouse as part of the south, she leads Bernie 61-14 in the latest polls from RCP. RCP doesn't have any recent polling out of Nebraska, Kansas, or Maine, but the Wichita Eagle (http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article63574787.html) argues that Oklahoma's primary results should largely dictate Kansas' results, and Bernie won Oklahoma 51.9% to 41.5%. ISideWith isn't the most scientific poll, but it has Maine going Sanders (https://www.isidewith.com/2016-democratic-primary-poll/801555698/9333319) 70%-30% and Hillary's own campaign is already downplaying the results from this weekend's primaries and caucuses (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-democratic-caucuses_us_56d9a5e1e4b0000de4043b82), so that's a good sign for Sanders even in Louisiana. It's also important to remember that the entire Democratic race is proportional, there are no winner-take-all states, so even if Bernie loses he wins.

The media is trying to shape the race in favor of Trump and Clinton but the evidence does not show either of them as inevitable, and it certainly indicates Trump is more inevitable than Hillary. Let's not write Bernie off yet.

[Peter1469]

Sanders voters are not going to vote for Hillary by and large. Some will go to Trump. Most will go Green or not vote at all.

Bernie or Bust (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/1/hillary-clinton-cant-count-on-bernie-sanders-suppo/):


More than 50,000 people already have signed up at the Revolt Against Plutocracy, pledging to vote for the Green Party candidate in the general election or write in Mr. Sanders’ name if Mrs. Clinton (http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/hillary-clinton/) wins the Democratic nomination. Other groups, such as Grassroots Action for Bernie, are taking to social media, using Facebook and Twitter to try to get the “Bernieorbust” hashtag trending.



The DNC elites are already decided on Clinton. And apparently they are not worried about the fallout from this. They must be assuming that Sanders supporters will grumble and complain, but will ultimately go out and vote for Hillary Clinton come election time. And although I realize some Sanders supporters will stay home, I doubt it will be to any significant degree. In other words, the DNC elites will probably pay little to no price for their contemptuous disregard of democracy, and that is exactly why they will keep doing it for the foreseeable future. So unless and until the populists in the Democrat party punish the leadership for their bad behavior, they have no inventive to change their ways.

[Peter1469]

It's not democrats who have done this, it's the party leadership, the DNC.

Mostly against the will of the average democratic voter IMHO.

Members of both parties suffer that same fate. As a reminder when I take trash about either party I specifically mean the leadership and not the common members- unless otherwise specifically noted.

[Peter1469]

What if everyone said that? lol

What if Hillary does actually need your vote? Will you come to her rescue?

Like lock step? LoL.

Hillary supporters are indeed committed to a cause. What cause is the question! :wink:

[zelmo1234]

The DNC elites are already decided on Clinton. And apparently they are not worried about the fallout from this. They must be assuming that Sanders supporters will grumble and complain, but will ultimately go out and vote for Hillary Clinton come election time. And although I realize some Sanders supporters will stay home, I doubt it will be to any significant degree. In other words, the DNC elites will probably pay little to no price for their contemptuous disregard of democracy, and that is exactly why they will keep doing it for the foreseeable future. So unless and until the populists in the Democrat party punish the leadership for their bad behavior, they have no inventive to change their ways.

Which is exactly what is happening to the GOP right now. If the Republicans would not have lied to their voters in the 10, 12, & 14 elections, Trump would not even be in the race. He totally destroys the Establishment. And could be a President that will actually nominate a Democrat, like a Jim Web as his running mate.

[zelmo1234]

Like lock step? LoL.

Hillary supporters are indeed committed to a cause. What cause is the question! :wink:

No it is not

They are committed to the accumulation of power

[Peter1469]

Which is exactly what is happening to the GOP right now. If the Republicans would not have lied to their voters in the 10, 12, & 14 elections, Trump would not even be in the race. He totally destroys the Establishment. And could be a President that will actually nominate a Democrat, like a Jim Web as his running mate.

I would go further back for GOP lies. But otherwise agree. And Webb would be an excellent running mate for Trump.

[Peter1469]

No it is not

They are committed to the accumulation of power

Power for its own sake, or for something nefarious?

[zelmo1234]

The Media have selected their Candidate and for the most part that is Hillary on the Left. And the once proud FOX on the right has gotten behind Rubio, which is keeping him in the race. Because Rubio is in the race, Trump will win most of the contests.

The rest of the Media of course is little more than an extension of the Democrat Elites, and thus not only are they in the tank for Hillary, but believe that the only candidate that she can beat is Trump. Though I believe they underestimate the anger in their own party and the selection of Hillary.

So Rubio and Kasich, have a choice to make. They can either make this a one on one race on the GOP side, or they can get behind Trump.

[zelmo1234]

I would go further back for GOP lies. But otherwise agree. And Webb would be an excellent running mate for Trump.

Yes, they actually go back to "Read My Lips, No new taxes" but as we are seeing right now in the DNC, it takes a little time for the anger to reach the point where the people are willing to loose an election to prove a point. It certainly happened to Romney.

Trump, has some very hard decision to make. His path to Victory is really 2 paths. He can carve out enough Anger out of the Center, by nomination a rational Democrat of which Web may be the only one left, knowing that the Right is proven already that they will stay home.

Or he can destroy the establishment and return the GOP to more traditional values

If Trump choose to Destroy the Establishment he will need to do the following

After Receiving the nomination extend an Olive branch to Kasich and Nominate him as VP. I would have selected Rubio but to much water has gone over that dam, so FL will go to Hillary. He does need to say that Rubio is just too young. The other VP possibility is Walker. Both likely move MI and OH to the GOP, which makes up for the loss of FL.

Then he needs to tell everyone that Ted Cruz will be his nomination to the Supreme Court. This will bring the Conservative base, of which Trump is not a member, and he needs to nominate Christie to Attn, General and giving Christie the power to start talking about the prosecution of Hillary, and he can go even one step further and put Carson in as Surgeon General This would give everyone enough to bring them on board.

[PolWatch]

I would go further back for GOP lies. But otherwise agree. And Webb would be an excellent running mate for Trump.

I like Webb but I don't think there is a good running mate for Trump. I think Trump is the candidate for those who are eager to see the country fail completely. While I hope to see more parties and real choices for voters, I don't want to see the United States become a Trump dictatorship.

[Peter1469]

I like Webb but I don't think there is a good running mate for Trump. I think Trump is the candidate for those who are eager to see the country fail completely. While I hope to see more parties and real choices for voters, I don't want to see the United States become a Trump dictatorship.

I don't see any scenario where the US would fail under Trump.

I do understand that the Establishment wants us to think so. But they brought us $19T in debt and constant war.

Who are we to believe?

[Green Arrow]

I don't see any scenario where the US would fail under Trump.

I do understand that the Establishment wants us to think so. But they brought us $19T in debt and constant war.

Who are we to believe?

The establishment. Like Trump?

[Peter1469]

The establishment. Like Trump?

Trump is off the reservation, in case you missed it. :wink:

[Green Arrow]

Trump is off the reservation, in case you missed it. :wink:

Sure. He's a member of the other side's establishment, but it's still the establishment.

[Peter1469]

Sure. He's a member of the other side's establishment, but it's still the establishment.

Incorrect I think.

Trump is running as an anti-establishment - and he has the money to not be bought off.

Cato the Elder is paraphrased: I never claimed to be a man of the people. But I like to think of myself as a man for the people. He was assassinated after that.

I stand with Cato the Elder.

[Green Arrow]

Incorrect I think.

Trump is running as an anti-establishment - and he has the money to not be bought off.

Cato the Elder is paraphrased: I never claimed to be a man of the people. But I like to think of myself as a man for the people. He was assassinated after that.

I stand with Cato the Elder.

I agree with Cato the Elder, but not with Donald Trump. He's running as anti-establishment, but Hillary is running as an honest progressive. What you run as has absolutely zero bearing on who you are.

[Peter1469]

I agree with Cato the Elder, but not with Donald Trump. He's running as anti-establishment, but Hillary is running as an honest progressive. What you run as has absolutely zero bearing on who you are.

That doesn't make sense.

Trump is a billionaire who bought politicians like Hillary. He now claims to run for the common man. He can certainly do that. He can't be bought off.

Let's not get confused with what is going on here.

[zelmo1234]

The establishment. Like Trump?

Trump is many, many things, but establishment is not one of them.

What is interesting is that he is starting to bring as much Fear on the left's establishment as the right. IF he actually pulls this off, and it is my opinion that he will beat Hillary, Then anyone can be Elected to office and that changes everything especially at the local levels, where it really matters.

[zip98053]

The GOP rank and file understand that their leaders are utterly and completely corrupt. The Democratic rank and file still worship their leaders almost as ancient gods.

This is the kind of statement that causes people on the left to call conservatives stupid. Conservatives demonize their enemies. When liberals don't demonize people like Obama or Clinton, then we must be worshiping them. There is no reason to demonize anyone. We shouldn't even demonize Trump. What Trump is saying isn't the issue, it is the fact that he is finding support in the Republican Party that is the issue. This kind of indicates that Republicans are the ignorant biggots that we thought they were.

Oh, and the media in this country is dismal. There is no more mainstream media, it's just companies trying to make money by getting eyeballs. Sensationalism gets eyeballs and the media no longer addresses important issues. While the politicans have betrayed us, the media has betrayed us even more.

Would you believe that I'm mostly a positive person.

[PolWatch]

Bernie wins the one-liner award in the MI debate:

"We are, if elected president, going to invest a lot of money into mental health, and when you watch these Republican debates, you know why."

[Peter1469]

The left lacks the right to call anyone stupid. :wink:
This is the kind of statement that causes people on the left to call conservatives stupid. Conservatives demonize their enemies. When liberals don't demonize people like Obama or Clinton, then we must be worshiping them. There is no reason to demonize anyone. We shouldn't even demonize Trump. What Trump is saying isn't the issue, it is the fact that he is finding support in the Republican Party that is the issue. This kind of indicates that Republicans are the ignorant biggots that we thought they were.

Oh, and the media in this country is dismal. There is no more mainstream media, it's just companies trying to make money by getting eyeballs. Sensationalism gets eyeballs and the media no longer addresses important issues. While the politicans have betrayed us, the media has betrayed us even more.

Would you believe that I'm mostly a positive person.