the myth of the reagan democrat

[del]

When pundits claim Donald Trump can win the presidency, they often evoke a fabled political species: “Reagan Democrats.” “Are Reagan Democrats becoming Trump Democrats?” wondered CNN commentator Jeffrey Lord last fall in The American Spectator (http://spectator.org/articles/63765/are-reagan-democrats-becoming-trump-democrats). “I think there’s a lot of Reagan Democrats waiting to vote for him,” declared (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/01/16/chris_matthews_there_are_reagan_democrats_waiting_ to_vote_for_trump_pennsylvania_is_in_play.html) MSNBC’s Chris Matthews in January.
This almost certainly isn’t true. The more you examine it, the more far-fetched the claim that Trump can win the presidency by luring vast numbers of “Reagan Democrats” looks.
What is a “Reagan Democrat?” At its most literal, it’s a Northern, white, noncollege-educated Democrat who actually voted for Ronald Reagan. But there aren’t many of them left. The typical blue-collar white man who at age 30 voted for Reagan in 1980 can’t vote for Trump this fall. He’s dead. White men born in 1950 die on average at age 66. That’s this year. White working-class men die even earlier.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/the-myth-of-the-reagan-democrat/475608/

[Chris]

"White men born in 1950 die on average at age 66." Makes sense few are left.

[Mister D]

"White men born in 1950 die on average at age 66." Makes sense few are left.

Well, yeah, but people who use the term aren't referring to Democrats who actually voted for Ronald Reagan. It's acknowledged in the OP. Not sure why this particular point is in bold.

[Chris]

George Will: "White voters without college education—economically anxious and culturally conservative—were called "Reagan Democrats" when they were considered only seasonal Republicans because of Ronald Reagan. Today they are called the Republican base." @ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/suddenly-a-fun-candidate/2012/01/04/gIQAnn0jaP_story.html

[Mister D]

George Will: "White voters without college education—economically anxious and culturally conservative—were called "Reagan Democrats" when they were considered only seasonal Republicans because of Ronald Reagan. Today they are called the Republican base." @ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/suddenly-a-fun-candidate/2012/01/04/gIQAnn0jaP_story.html

That's in line with the OP which suggests that the American electorate is significantly more partisan than it was in 1980.

[Captain Obvious]

Does this mean Bernie can't count on the Carter voter segment?

[Tahuyaman]

Failed thread.

[AZ Jim]

I don't want to spoil anyone's party, BUT......I was a white democrat who (made the mistake) of voting Reagan in 1980. I will be 80 in a few short months. *yep! Not dead!!! I was born not in '50 but in 1936...

[Mister D]

I don't want to spoil anyone's party, BUT......I was a white democrat who (made the mistake) of voting Reagan in 1980. I will be 80 in a few short months. *yep! Not dead!!! I was born not in '50 but in 1936...

Considering the annihilation of Walter Mondale in 1984 I suspect you made that mistake twice. :wink:

[Cigar]

:grin: Change has come ...

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/09/16/1410867729406_wps_3_14th_century_Skeletons_fo.jpg

[AZ Jim]

Considering the annihilation of Walter Mondale in 1984 I suspect you made that mistake twice. :wink:Actually worse than that....Not only did I do it twice for President but I also did it when he ran for Governor of California (I lived there then).

[Mister D]

Actually worse than that....Not only did I do it twice for President but I also did it when he ran for Governor of California (I lived there then).

I Reagan trifecta! :shocked:

[The Sage of Main Street]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/the-myth-of-the-reagan-democrat/475608/ What about today's Over Thirties from that demographic? Maybe they could have been Bernie Outs ten years ago, but they change just like the Reagan Democrats had changed with age before 1980.