It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention

[Peter1469]

It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/)

The GOP convention rules allow delegates to start shifting after the first round of votes.

Both parties have strange rules for their conventions. Both design to shift the power from people to the party apparatus.


At the prediction market Betfair on Friday morning, bettors put Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination at 56 percent (https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938). That’s down a fair bit — Trump had been hovering at about 70 percent after his win in Arizona (and loss in Utah) last week. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a contested convention according to bettors has considerably increased. There’s now a 63 percent (https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.123884478) chance1 (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/#fn-1) that the convention in Cleveland will require multiple ballots, according to Betfair.

In other words, the markets are now betting on a contested convention. Not just a near-miss, where the nomination is resolved (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-11/republicans-new-target-the-pre-convention) at some point between the last day of GOP primaries June 7 and the start of the convention July 18, but the thing that political journalists dream about: a full-blown contested convention where it takes multiple ballots to determine the Republican nominee.


Here’s the thing, though: Those markets don’t make a lot of sense. If you really think the chance of a multi-ballot convention is 63 percent, but also still have Trump with a 56 percent chance of winning the nomination, that implies there’s a fairly good chance that Trump will win if voting goes beyond the first ballot. That’s probably wrong. If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably screwed.


The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump.

[Crepitus]

It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/)

The GOP convention rules allow delegates to start shifting after the first round of votes.

Both parties have strange rules for their conventions. Both design to shift the power from people to the party apparatus.
Yup, If he doesn't have it locked up basically before it starts they will drop him like a hot rock.

[Adelaide]

If he doesn't win Trump will run as an independent. Sanders also will run as an independent, in my opinion. The potential for two independents, one from each "side", would be pretty interesting in the US. The vote could potentially be split on both sides and harm the two-party system that is failing miserably. There are groups within each party that should have, in theory, broken off and created third and fourth parties but because of partisanship, and partisan voting, it has deterred that process from happening. In this election, however, it seems as though people are far more open-minded about not just voting based on party loyalty, driven by this weird (but understandable) disappointment and anger with the "establishment."

[Peter1469]

It would be great if there were independent runs on both sides.

[Subdermal]

It would be great if there were independent runs on both sides.

Bernie running as an IND would offset Trump running as an IND. A 4 person race for POTUS would be very interesting.

I think whoever wins the nomination on the GOP side would determine the winner of such a race.

[Peter1469]

Bernie running as an IND would offset Trump running as an IND. A 4 person race for POTUS would be very interesting.

I think whoever wins the nomination on the GOP side would determine the winner of such a race.

Right, a 4 way race would be interesting. I would love to see the two outsiders crush the two Establishment candidates.

If only one ran as independent then the race will be boring and predetermined.

[PolWatch]

Considering the candidates in a 4-way race (Trump/Cruz/Clinton/Sanders) I think Sanders would win. Sanders has a lot of young, motivated supporters. Don't forget how effective this group was in Obama's first campaign.

[Peter1469]

Considering the candidates in a 4-way race (Trump/Cruz/Clinton/Sanders) I think Sanders would win. Sanders has a lot of young, motivated supporters. Don't forget how effective this group was in Obama's first campaign.

I think Cruz would win in that lineup.

Young people alone won't win it for Sanders. Even if a large percentage managed to vote at the right place and right time. Minorities won't vote for him in numbers.

Hillary will likely do worse in this 4 way.

Trump will have a solid block, but will have alienated too many people to win.

[PolWatch]

I think Cruz would win in that lineup.

Young people alone won't win it for Sanders. Even if a large percentage managed to vote at the right place and right time. Minorities won't vote for him in numbers.

Hillary will likely do worse in this 4 way.

Trump will have a solid block, but will have alienated too many people to win.

My first thought was Cruz too....but I wonder if his recent attacks may have turned off a lot of people (the same as Trump). 2 or 4.....I think this election will set new lows in voter turnout.

[michiganFats]

In a 4 way race does anyone get to 270 electoral votes? I think Trump and Sanders would be unusually strong independents.

[Peter1469]

In a 4 way race does anyone get to 270 electoral votes? I think Trump and Sanders would be unusually strong independents.

If nobody gets 270, the House of Representatives chooses from the top 3.

[Tahuyaman]

If he doesn't win Trump will run as an independent. Sanders also will run as an independent, in my opinion. ....."

I don't believe either will happen. I also don't believe Trump or Sanders will be the nominee.

[MisterVeritis]

It is too soon to tell. Many things can happen between now and the convention. Trump has as great an opportunity to lobby delegates away from Kasich and Cruz as they do to lobby delegates away from him. He needs to move far fewer than they do.

[PolWatch]

I don't believe either will happen. I also don't believe Trump or Sanders will be the nominee.

Less than a year ago I thought Trump would drop out by October and Clinton would be the nominee with no competition. I'm beginning to think that comparing this election to American Idol-Presidential Edition is incorrect, it should be the Twilight Zone-Presidential Episode.

[MisterVeritis]

Less than a year ago I thought Trump would drop out by October and Clinton would be the nominee with no competition. I'm beginning to think that comparing this election to American Idol-Presidential Edition is incorrect, it should be the Twilight Zone-Presidential Episode.
It is not going the way you thought it should? Maybe some people have had enough and are not going to take being ignored, maligned, and lied to, by establishment candidates anymore.

[PolWatch]

It is not going the way you thought it should? Maybe some people have had enough and are not going to take being ignored, maligned, and lied to, by establishment candidates anymore.

Sounds good...but reality is different. Many of those who are fed up have given their support to someone who is talented in getting free publicity by making outrageous remarks....with no substance or plan to correct the problems.

[MisterVeritis]

It is not going the way you thought it should? Maybe some people have had enough and are not going to take being ignored, maligned, and lied to, by establishment candidates anymore.

Sounds good...but reality is different. Many of those who are fed up have given their support to someone who is talented in getting free publicity by making outrageous remarks....with no substance or plan to correct the problems.
You should have said, "You are right, MisterVeritis, it is not going the way I thought it should."

Given that your prognostication skills have already been called into question (by you), why should anyone believe your most recent utterings?