Economic models predict GOP win

[Peter1469]

Economic models predict GOP win (http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump)

These two models have had extremely high success rates (one was wrong 3 times since 1916). Although many admit that the Trump factor adds a lot of volatility this year.


Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating.


The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump (http://thehill.com/people/donald-trump), whose campaign has shaken up politics.
Trump’s fights with Ted Cruz (http://thehill.com/people/ted-cruz) and his other GOP rivals have electrified his supporters but have turned off other voters. A Washington Post-ABC poll last week found that 67 percent of registered voters held an unfavorable view of the outspoken billionaire. That has given hope to Democrats that even with a weakened Hillary Clinton (http://thehill.com/people/hillary-clinton) as their nominee, their party could cruise to victory.


“As economists this is a very unusual election and there’s a lot more uncertainty introduced this time around that could upset the balance and the historical relationship of how marginal voters vote,” said Dan White, an economist with Moody’s Analytics who oversees the firm’s monthly election model.


Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up, “this one seems particularly unusual.”


“If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.


Fair’s model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916 but was wrong in 2012, when it predicted a narrow loss for Obama to Mitt Romney.

Read the entire article.

[onecut]

Economic models predict GOP win (http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump)

These two models have had extremely high success rates (one was wrong 3 times since 1916). Although many admit that the Trump factor adds a lot of volatility this year.



Read the entire article.

"In fact, their models are designed to sweep away the effects of boisterous personalities and the usual ebbs and flows of a long presidential campaign season and instead track specific economic factors that voters deem most important"

Good luck with that. Trump has managed to alienate an entire class of women with over 50% of REPUBLICAN women sayin they will not vote for him, Cruz is not much better. Both have near zero support from minorities.

If Trump is nominated the establishment GOP not be helpful, If it is taken from Trump his followers may just sit on their hands, unless of course Trump mounts a third party campaign.

Implode before the election or after. We may just see the end of the GOP as a cohesive force.

[MisterVeritis]

We may just see the end of the GOP as a cohesive force.

That happened decades ago.

[onecut]

[QUOTE=MisterVeritis;1503396]That happened decades ago.[/QUOTE

I suppose you could say that it happened with Goldwater but they did not have so much to shatter in those days.

The GOP has been in ascendence for thirty years. Like so many others they have now been sucked into believing their own BS.

[Peter1469]

"In fact, their models are designed to sweep away the effects of boisterous personalities and the usual ebbs and flows of a long presidential campaign season and instead track specific economic factors that voters deem most important"

Good luck with that. Trump has managed to alienate an entire class of women with over 50% of REPUBLICAN women sayin they will not vote for him, Cruz is not much better. Both have near zero support from minorities.

If Trump is nominated the establishment GOP not be helpful, If it is taken from Trump his followers may just sit on their hands, unless of course Trump mounts a third party campaign.

Implode before the election or after. We may just see the end of the GOP as a cohesive force.


The article does mention your concern up top. It also comes to a different conclusion that you. Much less dramatic.

[Peter1469]

[QUOTE=MisterVeritis;1503396]That happened decades ago.[/QUOTE

I suppose you could say that it happened with Goldwater but they did not have so much to shatter in those days.

The GOP has been in ascendence for thirty years. Like so many others they have now been sucked into believing their own BS.

Incorrect. They moved left.

[PolWatch]

I thought 2016 would be a cake-walk for the GOP. Now? Who knows. The GOP really should consider issuing bullet proof shoes to their membership....'specially if they keep shooting off their own feet.

[Quicksilver]

Women aside.. because we know their are some that will vote Republican.. although I simply cannot imagine why.... NO ONE has ever won the Presidency with less than 30% of the Latino vote.. Romney had 27%... Trump is at 14%.

[Tahuyaman]

I have a hard time believing Donald Trump could beat a party establishment candidate, even someone as distrustful as Hillary Clinton.

[Quicksilver]

And sorry... Cruz is just to scary for the average American.. I think his Green eggs and Ham fiasco pretty much painted him as a lunatic in the eyes of most.

[PolWatch]

I have a hard time believing Donald Trump could beat a party establishment candidate, even someone as distrustful as Hillary Clinton.

I think he has helped the Clinton campaign. I still wonder if the repub establishment has a plan for the convention.

[Tahuyaman]

I think he has helped the Clinton campaign. I still wonder if the repub establishment has a plan for the convention.


I think he's helped the Sanders campaign.

[MisterVeritis]

That happened decades ago.


I suppose you could say that it happened with Goldwater but they did not have so much to shatter in those days.

The GOP has been in ascendence for thirty years. Like so many others they have now been sucked into believing their own BS.
I cannot deny that the voters gave large majorities to the Congress. We were stabbed in the back. The Republicans have not fought back the authoritarian statists. They capitulated to them.

So we are where we are.

[onecut]

[QUOTE=onecut;1503407]

Incorrect. They moved left.

Socially? Fiscally? How?

[AZ Jim]

Economic models predict GOP win (http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump)

These two models have had extremely high success rates (one was wrong 3 times since 1916). Although many admit that the Trump factor adds a lot of volatility this year.



Read the entire article.Dewey was going to beat Truman too...

[Tahuyaman]

The more I see from AZ Jim, the more I think he's a clone of maineman. Someone here must have registered twice.

[Peter1469]

Dewey was going to beat Truman too...

wrong 3 times since 1916.

[del]

Incorrect. They moved left.


:rofl:

good one

[Subdermal]

And sorry... Cruz is just to scary for the average American.. I think his Green eggs and Ham fiasco pretty much painted him as a lunatic in the eyes of most.

ORLY?

And Harry Reid was the picture of civility and normalcy when he filibustered by reading Searchlight out loud for 9 hours?

The loon is you.

[Peter1469]

[QUOTE=Peter1469;1503494]

Socially? Fiscally? How?

fiscally

[Bo-4]

I'm going with Moody's ;-)

A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating.

[Peter1469]

I'm going with Moody's ;-)

A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating.

That is a good response and even uses the OP.

Other leftists drool on themselves and stutter out the word no. Not every effective if you ask me.

Maybe you could hold a workshop for them?