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View Full Version : tPF Rather good article in the Atlantic about the Republican convention.



OGIS
04-09-2016, 12:11 PM
I'm more and more impressed with the Atlantic.



How the Republican Race Could End

Regardless of which scenario prevails, there’s likely to be conflict in Cleveland.

Even before Ted Cruz thrashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin, there was incessant buzz in political circles about the possibility of a contested convention in Cleveland. Since Wisconsin, the buzz has ramped up substantially, consuming hundreds of hours of bloviation on cable news networks. I’ve been gratified to see that, after months of effort (http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/maybe-this-time-really-is-different/401900/) by me and others, the term “brokered convention” has largely been dropped. There will be no brokers in Cleveland capable of delivering the nomination.

Now, at last, some of our best analysts are weighing in with plausible scenarios, including Francis Wilkinson (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-06/a-convention-coup-endangers-republican-party) and Josh Putnam (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/05/heres-exactly-how-an-open-republican-convention-would-work/?postshare=871459860709517&tid=ss_tw). Here are my own scenarios for what might happen next:




http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/five-ways-the-republican-race-could-end/477324/

Peter1469
04-09-2016, 12:12 PM
The Atlantic has been doing good work lately.

Crepitus
04-09-2016, 12:20 PM
I actually find scenario 5 far more likely than the author does.

Rebel Son
04-09-2016, 12:37 PM
I think if it comes to it, #4. They both have disdain for the establishment who have slammed them both. Not so much Cruz lately but alot in the past, I doubt Cruz has forgotten the snide remarks made against him by those who now cling to his shirt tail.

birddog
04-09-2016, 01:59 PM
1, if not 1, 4.

suds00
04-09-2016, 02:16 PM
I hope trump doesn't win enough delegate

onecut
04-10-2016, 02:29 PM
let the games begin!!!

OGIS
04-10-2016, 02:42 PM
let the games begin!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmRAiUPdRjk

Tahuyaman
04-10-2016, 10:36 PM
The Atlantic has been doing good work lately.


I dont know if it took an amazing amount of journalistic skill to opine that the Republicans may be heading to a contested convention. Seems to me that it's an example of having a brilliant grasp of the obvious.

OGIS
04-10-2016, 10:54 PM
I dont know if it took an amazing amount of journalistic skill to opine that the Republicans may be heading to a contested convention. Seems to me that it's an example of having a brilliant grasp of the obvious.

Pretty sure the article was a bit of a primer, laying out the specific alternatives (rather than just saying ZOMG contested convention) for readers who lack your brilliant and intuitive insight into Republican politics. The article was unworthy of you.

Tahuyaman
04-10-2016, 11:24 PM
Well, I'll just have to put you down as someone else who's "unworthy".

Subdermal
04-11-2016, 12:46 PM
I think #3 is increasingly possible, and the reason I voted for Cruz over Trump in Wisconsin (that, and Trump going full retard in the town hall prior to the election, as well as his clearly inept campaign being utterly unaware that Walker is very popular with those who would consider voting for Trump. Icing on that full retard cake is Trump going on every talk-radio show in SE Wisconsin, and having his guts ripped out by each and every one of them: evidence that his staff had no focking idea how much he is disliked by these pundits).

Cruz's ground game is stunningly powerful. Cruz completely outmanuevered Trump in Colorado, snatching up every delegate: not as much because there was collusion or tricks (though, the GOP last year made rules in Colorado similar to the Dem's rules most everywhere), but because Trump absolutely had no one wooing delegates in Colorado.

No one. That's incompetent, and cements as accurate the impression that his campaign is full of ignorant noobs.

Contrary to his claim that he'll surround himself with 'the best'.

I see it as certainly possible that the competence and power of the Cruz campaign can pull delegates from Trump in Cleveland, and - major NY win for Trump notwithstanding - I don't see Trump getting to 1237. I think he's going to end up somewhere around 1100.

And I think that will be enough for Trump delegates - who are NOT fans of the GOPe, or they wouldn't have been Trump delegates - to shift to Cruz, and get done what they think needs to be done in Washington.

That is my hope, and I have reason to be optimistic about it.