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onecut
04-10-2016, 09:59 AM
Can anyone here give substantive data (not heresay or some economist's "belief") that will verify the that raising the minimum wage has, in the past, increased unemployment?

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 10:07 AM
http://yourlifeyourliberty.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/unemployment-and-minimum-wage.jpg

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 10:09 AM
http://granitegrok.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/minwage3-600x406.jpg

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 10:14 AM
Very good analysis:

http://topforeignstocks.com/2013/03/10/will-raising-the-minimum-wage-increase-u-s-unemployment/

http://topforeignstocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Minimum-wage-Raise-Impact.jpg

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 11:15 AM
Dumb question. The answer is self evident.

onecut
04-10-2016, 11:54 AM
http://yourlifeyourliberty.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/unemployment-and-minimum-wage.jpg

ROFLMAO!! Are maintaining the the minimum wage caused tjhe great recession?

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 11:57 AM
ROFLMAO!! Are maintaining the the minimum wage caused tjhe great recession?Why would you think so? That is odd.

onecut
04-10-2016, 11:59 AM
http://granitegrok.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/minwage3-600x406.jpg


Another chart that blames minimum wage for the great recession. How stupid can we get? There seems no end.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 11:59 AM
Another chart that blames minimum wage for the great recession. How stupid can we get? There seems no end.

Is that what the chart tells you?

lol

onecut
04-10-2016, 12:01 PM
Dumb question. The answer is self evident.

Yeah, that's what they always say and one could say it is the truth since there is no correlation between minimum wage and unemployment.

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 12:03 PM
ROFLMAO!! Are maintaining the the minimum wage caused tjhe great recession?

Um.

Wut?

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 12:04 PM
Yeah, that's what they always say and one could say it is the truth since there is no correlation between minimum wage and unemployment.

Incorrect. You don't know what you are talking about. Here is a Google search result (https://www.google.com/?client=opera#q=15+minimum+wage+and+unemployment)w ith multiple Fores articles saying you are incorrect.

onecut
04-10-2016, 12:04 PM
Is that what the chart tells you?

lol

No. But that chart was presented as a case for minimum wage causing unemployment, What does that chart tell you Peter? (aside that it is totally misrepresenting?)

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 12:04 PM
Yeah, that's what they always say and one could say it is the truth since there is no correlation between minimum wage and unemployment.

Your contribution is not to this point very impressive. You've attempted to claim that two charts say something not mentioned, and you've not chosen to tackle the analysis in the third chart & link.

Have at it. So far, it doesn't seem as though you're really interested in doing anything other than defending your preconceptions.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 12:06 PM
I blame public schools.

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 12:07 PM
No. But that chart was presented as a case for minimum wage causing unemployment, What does that chart tell you Peter? (aside that it is totally misrepresenting?)

How can a chart that overlays the increase in MW with the increase in teen unemployment be in any way misrepresenting anything?

The 'pro-MW increase' types ignore that there is a way to increase the MW without real effect, and that is if it is indexed to inflation.

But an economy already does that - if it's not tampered with. In fact, during Dubya, the economy was doing so well that McDonald's could not fill positions without advertising openings available above $11.50/hr.

But one needs to understand economics in order to understand how that is possible, and how it is the best way to avoid damage to economic growth.

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 12:11 PM
Another article to chew, onecut.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/08/10/seattles-15-an-hour-measure-the-unemployment-effects-and-there-they-are/#237562983e7d

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 12:17 PM
And one more: Seattle loses 1000 jobs after $15/hr hike. Worst since Great Recession (http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/10/report-seattle-restaurants-suffer-worse-job-loss-since-the-great-recession/).

Chris
04-10-2016, 01:10 PM
Can anyone here give substantive data (not heresay or some economist's "belief") that will verify the that raising the minimum wage has, in the past, increased unemployment?


That's not the right question to ask. It's highly unlikely that businesses will fire those it must give min wage increases to, they'd probably be sued. The effects will be more long-term. Businesses will be less likely to hire at higher wages. Businesses are more likely to automate those min wage jobs. In the long run you will see the correlations subdermal has reported.

Let's take McDonald's, for instance. It's a great example because McD's actually promoted raising the min wage. See, McD's is losing market share to small specialty sandwich shops that are less likely able to afford to pay higher wages without raising prices and thus losing customers...to McD's. And once McD's has market share back they will go full force deploying automated kiosks to take orders and replace min wage workers. It really a beautiful bit of crony capitalism, if you find corruption beautiful.

onecut
04-10-2016, 01:22 PM
Um.

Wut?

I ask you to provide proof that the minimum wage causes unemployment and you post a chart that shows the increse of unemployment during the second worst recession in our history.

That was either a try at deception or you have no idea what the hell is going on. There are no other choices.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 01:41 PM
I ask you to provide proof that the minimum wage causes unemployment and you post a chart that shows the increse of unemployment during the second worst recession in our history.

That was either a try at deception or you have no idea what the hell is going on. There are no other choices.

New McDonald’s In Phoenix Run Entirely By Robots (http://newsexaminer.net/food/mcdonalds-to-open-restaurant-run-by-robots/)
Would you like fries with that? :smiley:

onecut
04-10-2016, 02:23 PM
New McDonald’s In Phoenix Run Entirely By Robots (http://newsexaminer.net/food/mcdonalds-to-open-restaurant-run-by-robots/)


Would you like fries with that? :smiley:

Ah yes, and there are damn few folks making typwriters either. ( I thought you better than this)

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 02:30 PM
Ah yes, and there are damn few folks making typwriters either. ( I thought you better than this)

You asked what $15 an hour will bring.

I showed you.

onecut
04-10-2016, 04:53 PM
You asked what $15 an hour will bring.

I showed you.

You showed me what is a normal "advance" in a technological society. This same occurrance can, and has, taken place as a cost cutting measure since time began.
The mere act of paying someone to do a job, any job, in any amount, may result in the same thing.

Perhaps you are in favor of non paying jobs? Let me think. That is called................

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 04:55 PM
You showed me what is a normal "advance" in a technological society. This same occurrance can, and has, taken place as a cost cutting measure since time began.
The mere act of paying someone to do a job, any job, in any amount, may result in the same thing.

Perhaps you are in favor of non paying jobs? Let me think. That is called................

That is called a straw man logical fallacy.

Captain Obvious
04-10-2016, 05:52 PM
Be careful what you ask for

:biglaugh:

Crepitus
04-10-2016, 05:54 PM
http://yourlifeyourliberty.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/unemployment-and-minimum-wage.jpg
The crash of 08 is throwing the chart off.

Captain Obvious
04-10-2016, 05:55 PM
lol

Crepitus
04-10-2016, 06:00 PM
Dumb question. The answer is self evident.
No it isn't. Those charts cannot be considered good data. Correlation does not indicate causation. The economy was free falling for reasons unrelated to minimum wage increases.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 06:04 PM
No it isn't. Those charts cannot be considered good data. Correlation does not indicate causation. The economy was free falling for reasons unrelated to minimum wage increases.

I was not referring to those charts with my comment.

Minimum wage tends to not be an issue in the US because it is at or below market wages in most of the nation. That is good.

Moving it up to $15 and hour will killed entry level and non-skilled labor.

The people you want to help will be the people harmed.

Crepitus
04-10-2016, 06:07 PM
I was not referring to those charts with my comment.

Minimum wage tends to not be an issue in the US because it is at or below market wages in most of the nation. That is good.

Moving it up to $15 and hour will killed entry level and non-skilled labor.

The people you want to help will be the people harmed.
That's one theory, lets try it and see who's right for real. The arguments are much more fun when we have actual facts to shout at each other anyway.

Subdermal
04-10-2016, 06:11 PM
I was not referring to those charts with my comment.

Minimum wage tends to not be an issue in the US because it is at or below market wages in most of the nation. That is good.

Moving it up to $15 and hour will killed entry level and non-skilled labor.

The people you want to help will be the people harmed.

Exactly what the link I provided delves into.

Not that any of these guys are addressing it.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 06:13 PM
That's one theory, lets try it and see who's right for real. The arguments are much more fun when we have actual facts to shout at each other anyway.

True.

Forbes has some good articles if you want to look there. I refuse to read them now that they insist on you turning off ad blocker. F'them hard.

Here is an article from PJ Meida.

Seattle: Worst Job Losses Since Recession After $15 Wage Law Goes Into Effect (https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/02/20/seattle-worst-job-losses-since-recession-after-15-wage-law-goes-into-effect/)

This is one city where $15 min wage demonstrably hurt the economy. (I suspect it would not hurt NYC, LA, San Fran and that is about it).


This analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (http://www.aei.org/publication/early-evidence-suggests-that-seattles-radical-experiment-might-be-a-model-for-the-rest-of-the-nation-not-to-follow/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=perryseattlemodel) suggests that the answer is "not so good." In fact, the probability that the most serious jobs loss in the city since the Great Recession is due to the enactment of the radical wage law was predicted by just about everyone who opposed it.



Now that the first Seattle minimum wage increase has been in effect for more than ten months, and as local employers brace for the additional minimum wage hikes that will eventually increase their annual labor costs per full-time minimum wage worker by 61% and by a whopping $11,300 (from the increase in hourly labor costs from $9.32 to $15 an hour), are there any noticeable effects so far on the city’s labor market? Is Seattle’s radical experiment with the highest-ever minimum wage in US history serving as a “model for the rest of the nation to follow”? Or is Seattle serving as an “economic canary in the coal mine” for other cities and states (and the country) considering the “bold action” of imposing higher labor costs on employers by as much as $15,500 annually per full-time minimum wage workers if they enact legislation increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour?

Early evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Seattle’s monthly employment, the number of unemployed workers, and the city’s unemployment rate through December 2015 suggest that since last April when the first minimum wage hike took effect: a) the city’s employment has fallen by more than 11,000, b) the number of unemployed workers has risen by nearly 5,000, and c) the city’s jobless rate has increased by more than 1 percentage point (all based on BLS’s “not seasonally adjusted basis”). Those figures are based on employment data for the city of Seattle only (not the Seattle MSA or MD), and are available from the BLS website here (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?la) (data are “not seasonally adjusted”).


How can we be sure that the increase in minimum wage is to blame?



Read the rest at the link.

Crepitus
04-10-2016, 06:30 PM
True.

Forbes has some good articles if you want to look there. I refuse to read them now that they insist on you turning off ad blocker. F'them hard.

Here is an article from PJ Meida.

Seattle: Worst Job Losses Since Recession After $15 Wage Law Goes Into Effect (https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/02/20/seattle-worst-job-losses-since-recession-after-15-wage-law-goes-into-effect/)



This is one city where $15 min wage demonstrably hurt the economy. (I suspect it would not hurt NYC, LA, San Fran and that is about it).



Read the rest at the link.
LA times disagrees
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wage-cities-20160331-story.html

So does Seattle Times
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/a-year-in-the-sky-is-not-falling-from-seattles-minimum-wage-hike/

Both indicate that it's too early to draw any firm conclusions though.

Both are also not conservative media sites.

Both linked articles are more recent as well.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 06:38 PM
LA times disagrees
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wage-cities-20160331-story.html

So does Seattle Times
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/a-year-in-the-sky-is-not-falling-from-seattles-minimum-wage-hike/

Both indicate that it's too early to draw any firm conclusions though.

Both are also not conservative media sites.

Both linked articles are more recent as well.

We have one article that cites 11000 lost jobs and another that says things are fine.

I have a friend who lives there. I can ask him.

Tahuyaman
04-10-2016, 06:45 PM
. How stupid can we get? There seems no end.

I agree. The stupidly of some seems to be an infinite recourse.

Tahuyaman
04-10-2016, 06:49 PM
We have one article that cites 11000 lost jobs and another that says things are fine.

I have a friend who lives there. I can ask him.

In Seattle the increase in the minimum wage is incremental over a few years. There has been an immediate negative impact though as many small businesses, mostly family owned restaurants, have either relocated or shut down anticipating that they can not meet that minimum wage requirement.

Crepitus
04-10-2016, 06:59 PM
We have one article that cites 11000 lost jobs and another that says things are fine.

I have a friend who lives there. I can ask him.

Actually both articles are careful to say it's too early to tell.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 07:02 PM
Actually both articles are careful to say it's too early to tell.

That is fair.

Crepitus
04-10-2016, 07:04 PM
That is fair.

My point is simply that just as one of the articles says, the sky has not fallen. At least not yet.

Peter1469
04-10-2016, 07:10 PM
My point is simply that just as one of the articles says, the sky has not fallen. At least not yet.

In my world the sky doesn't fall.

But I am prepared just in case. :wink:

onecut
04-11-2016, 08:20 AM
Look at the graph of unemployment over the years. By looking at this graph, if the naysayers are right, you should be able to see rises in unemployment at every juncture the wage rate was raised an there would not be a subsequent reduction.

That hasn't happened,ever. Every surge in unemployment was triggered by an economic slowdown that had nothing to do with the minimum wage.

Cigar
04-11-2016, 08:25 AM
In my world the sky doesn't fall.

But I am prepared just in case. :wink:


How are you preparing for falling air?

It happens everyday all day.

nathanbforrest45
04-11-2016, 08:30 AM
I am at a total loss to understand how the arbitrary and mandated increase in wages would not lead to a corresponding increase in the cost of goods. Seriously, it just appears to be common sense to me that if you force me to increase my cost of doing business then in order to maintain my profit margin I have to either increase the cost of my merchandise or decrease my cost of production by (1) reducing my work force, or (2) reducing the quality of my merchandise. I don't understand how a rise in cost would not lead to one of those three outcomes. Of course, there is also the 4th alternative, which is for me, the owner, to reduce my profit margin perhaps to the point of closing my doors.

nathanbforrest45
04-11-2016, 08:31 AM
How are you preparing for falling air?

It happens everyday all day.

Is this a black or white question?

Crepitus
04-11-2016, 08:31 AM
How are you preparing for falling air?

It happens everyday all day.
Reeeeeely tiny air molecule sized umbrellas.

Subdermal
04-11-2016, 11:36 AM
Look at the graph of unemployment over the years. By looking at this graph, if the naysayers are right, you should be able to see rises in unemployment at every juncture the wage rate was raised an there would not be a subsequent reduction.

That hasn't happened,ever. Every surge in unemployment was triggered by an economic slowdown that had nothing to do with the minimum wage.

You aren't even close to correctly diagnosing what the charts mean, because you don't understand economics.

There is a fairly instant response in unemployment, but the eventual drop happens as a result of our economy then inflating overall cost to meet/exceed the newly (artificially) imposed baseline.

And then people are employed again.

However.

The overall rate of people who need supplementary income steadily increases as well, as the ability to recreate full employment comes with a price: wages which do not meet the necessary standard of living as they did prior, and an increasingly steep slope of uncompetitive comparison between the American worker, and the foreign worker, thus exacerbating the problem of job offshoring/outsourcing.

But most people aren't bright enough to connect the dots.

So we have MW pushed, and it simply results in further inflation of the monetarist balloon, a constantly increasing spread between haves and have nots, and a more effective argument propagated by leftists that Government is needed to 'even the playing field' and 'provide people necessary entitlements'.

Instead of what would have happened if the economy is left alone to function and correct itself as normal market forces prompt it to adjust.

When that happens - and we see pockets of that here and there - the Central Control types who machinate things like MW and artificially manipulate the economy (which was worried about) really cause problems:

http://www.timesunion.com/local/article/Could-fast-food-jobs-draw-health-care-workers-6560172.php

And now we actually see it happening in States with strong economies: economies where there were no calls or laws for a $15/hr MW increase:

http://kxan.com/2016/04/08/texas-nurses-qutting-jobs-for-more-money-at-mcdonalds/

Understand what that link is reporting in Texas. Nurses are - because their wages in the medical field are fixed to Medicare/aid reimbursement - not making as much as they would in the fast food industry.

Not because the fast food industry experienced the rise in wages due to an artificially mandated MW increase, but because the Texas economy is expanding so prosperously that the market has corrected wage shortages NATURALLY.

And now government meddling is causing shortages in the medical field.

That's why you're wrong, @onecut (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=1737).

Subdermal
04-11-2016, 11:43 AM
^^^That kind of robust growth also suffers an inflationary effect in a way somewhat similar to artificial manipulation, but with one critically important difference:

When the economy self-regulates a wage increase, it is because the velocity of money is high. That means that profit margins can be protected by volume, and not necessarily margin.

The wage increase is prompted by a recognition of increased efficiency. That efficiency manifests itself in job shortages, and requires wage increases to compensate.

When the MW is screwed with - increased - into the face of a sluggish economy, the private sector responds with immediate price increases/cost cuts (read: job cuts) because it does not have the benefit of high velocity, and cannot depend upon volume to compensate for higher wage costs.

Understand that. Understand that your desire to increase wages for people artificially does not accomplish what you want, and ends up further damaging our domestic economy in a global market place.

HoneyBadger
04-11-2016, 01:15 PM
there is also the 4th alternative, which is for me, the owner, to reduce my profit margin perhaps to the point of closing my doors.

According to the left, profit is evil if you're earning it. Everyone is supposed to benefit from a business except the person who owns it.