Forget Tied National Polls, We're Winning

[Trinnity]

Bluster:

Messina: Forget The Tied National Polls, We're Winning (http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/messina-forget-the-tied-national-polls-were-win)

"We're either tied or in the lead in every battleground state 45 days out."Obama campaign manager Jim Messina told reporters on Saturday that despite national tracking polls showing the president and Romney tied, Obama is still winning.

In Wisconsin, Messina said:
"This is one where ... because of the recall election, they test drove their car whereas in other states they haven't. It would make sense they're strong here, as are we. They are stronger than McCain was in '08, no question, on the ground. But we continue to have a strategic advantage" because of more field offices and infrastructure.


Romney Political Director Rich Beeson:
“Governor Romney is seeing strong support across all the battleground states, including those President Obama won with close to double digit margins or more. We’ve had more people come out to knock on doors and make phone calls in support of Governor Romney because they understand we can’t afford four more years of policies that increase our debt, don’t create jobs, and have people working more for less. It’s why we now see states like Wisconsin, which Republicans haven’t won since 1984, now in play.”




We know many of the polls are unreliable. We also know in the Carter/Reagan election, Carter was leading right up to election day. This is an historical race and no doubt to political buffs, it's fascinating. There's a lot at stake.

[Calypso Jones]

Same with Kerry/Bush. Said they were neck'n'neck. I don't think we'd be seeing the unglue-ification of the left if Obonehead was actually ahead.

[Aristophanes]

Same with Kerry/Bush. Said they were neck'n'neck. I don't think we'd be seeing the unglue-ification of the left if Obonehead was actually ahead.Egg-actly.

They are more shrill and hateful than ever from the fear.

Chick Fil A Day Part II is on the way. All the lies won't stop this train.

[Goldie Locks]

This guy??? Who the hell would listen to this idiot???

http://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/OMG.jpeg

I think it should read "Forget the National Polls, were Whining"

[Trinnity]

Chick Fil A Day Part II is on the way. Oh? Tell me more....

[Carygrant]

Florida is going Obama and whoever wins there sits in the White House .

[Calypso Jones]

we'll see. I'm sure that's what you want. Misery loves company.

[Aristophanes]

This guy??? Who the hell would listen to this idiot???

http://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/OMG.jpeg

I think it should read "Forget the National Polls, were Whining"What a creepy looking libtard.

[Aristophanes]

Florida is going Obama and whoever wins there sits in the White House .Not a chance.

He won by a measly 2 points in '08 and this year, never happening.

[Aristophanes]

Oh? Tell me more....Chick Fil A Day, remember? It was a preview to the Nov. election.

[Calypso Jones]

This guy??? Who the hell would listen to this idiot???

http://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/OMG.jpeg

I think it should read "Forget the National Polls, were Whining"

[Shoot the Goose]

Florida is going Obama and whoever wins there sits in the White House .

No. It is not. Did you not see what we did to the Obama hugger Charley Crist ? Putting Rubio and Scott in ? Nothing about the economy under Obama has gotten better since then. Obama will lose Florida by 4-5.

[Trinnity]

Chick Fil A Day, remember? It was a preview to the Nov. election.Of course I remember. We ate there.

Oh, so CFDII is Nov.6th.

[pollycy]

Florida is going Obama and whoever wins there sits in the White House .

The state with one of the highest percentages of retired people on Social Security and Medicare? The same Medicare that Obama is stealing $716 BILLION DOLLARS from in order to stake his socialized medicine scheme for 38,000,000 people who don't or won't provide for their own health care? The same Florida that sent Republican Marco Rubio to the U. S. Senate? And you say that Florida is "in the bag" for Presidonk Messiah? Dream on, Cary....

[Bane]

I don't trust any poll. I think they are all garbage.

i find it hard to believe, that Obama has even 30% of the vote at all. Everywhere you look, read, or hear, except of course the MSM, people are dogging this guy into the ground. Then you see a poll where it is neck and neck....lol. Something is not right there.

i will say this: if Obama gets 30% or more of the vote, this nation is in serious, deep doo-doo.

[Shoot the Goose]

Two interesting news bits showed up over the weekend on this. First, a simply stated opinion about the over-polling. Here's a clip:


As I pointed out yesterday (http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/22/gallup-on-romneys-terrible-month/), the result of Romney’s “really bad week” was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there are some odd assumptions in that poll, and others. Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen (http://www.examiner.com/article/two-democratic-pollsters-confirm-major-polls-skewed-against-mitt-romney) talked about it recently. Asked if the polls were, in his opinion, a fair representation of the electorate, Schoen said:


“The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That’s from the exit polls and that’s about as accurate as you can get….President Obama (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_Obama) won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it’s about one point off the margin.”
Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”



In fact, Rasmussen keeps a running monthly poll of party identification. In the latest poll, released September 1, they found:
During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.

read more: http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/skewed-and-unskewed-polls/


See next post. Too many characters.

[ptif219]

What you need to see is unskewed polls

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

[Shoot the Goose]

Then we have a new website, unskewedpolls.com, that takes all the latest polls and washes them through the numbers more akin to the Rasmussen stats, which would be more as the 2004 and 2010 exit poll ratios.





UnSkewed Polling Data
Monday, September 24, 2012 10:58:53 AM



Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama(D)

Romney(R)

Spread



UnSkewed Avg.

9/4 - 9/20

--

--

44.0

51.8

Romney +7.8



Reason/Rupe (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-seven-percent-lead-reversed-skewed-reason-rupe-poll-1?cid=db_articles)

9/13 - 9/17

787 LV

4.3

45.0

52.0

Romney +7



Reuters/Ipsos (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-double-digit-lead-unskewed-data-from-reuters-ipsos-poll-1?cid=db_articles)

9/12 - 9/20

1437 LV

2.9

44.0

54.0

Romney +10



NBC News/WSJ (http://www.examiner.com/article/barack-obama-boosted-by-skewed-nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll?cid=db_articles)

9/12 - 9/16

736 LV

3.6

44.0

51.0

Romney +7



Monmouth Univ. (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-denied-lead-skewed-monmouth-university-poll?cid=db_articles)

9/13 - 9/16

1344 LV

2.5

45.0

50.0

Romney +5



QStarNews (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-leads-11-percent-new-qstarnews-presidential-poll?cid=db_articles)

9/10 - 9/15

2075

3.0

44.0

55.0

Romney +11



NY Times/CBS News (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-lead-hidden-by-doubly-skewed-new-york-times-cbs-news-poll)

9/8 - 9/12

1162 LV

3.0

44.0

51.0

Romney +7



Democracy Corps (http://www.examiner.com/article/barack-obama-leads-five-percent-heavily-skewed-democracy-corps-poll)

9/8 - 9/12

1000 LV

3.1

43.0

52.0

Romney +8



Fox News (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-lead-presidential-race-denied-by-skewed-fox-news-poll)

9/9 - 9/11

1056 LV

3.0

45.0

48.0

Romney +3



Wash. Post/ABC News (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-leads-seven-percent-by-unskewed-data-from-wash-post-abc-news-poll)

9/7 - 9/9

826 LV

4.0

45.0

52.0

Romney +7



CNN/ORC (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll)

9/7 - 9/9

875 RV

3.5

45.0

53.0

Romney +8



IBD/CSM/TIPP (http://www.examiner.com/article/barack-obama-leads-narrowly-skewed-tipp-poll)

9/4 - 9/9

808 RV

3.5

41.0

50.0

Romney +9



ARG (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-10-percent-lead-unskewed-data-from-arg-poll)

9/4 - 9/6

1200 LV

3.0

43.0

53.0

Romney +10




http://www.unskewedpolls.com/


Libs are not going to like this. However, a few of us have actually dug into the same polls ourselves, and found over-sampling of Dems at 5-8 points above GOP. There is no legitimate expectation for such a shift, but most of the polls are doing it.

[ptif219]

we'll see. I'm sure that's what you want. Misery loves company.

So 1 point is going Obama?

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/22/3016362/obama-48-romney-47-in-hard-fought.html



President Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in a virtual tie in Florida, according to a Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll that indicates the Democrats’ convention buzz and the Republican’s recent troubles haven’t altered the race in this biggest of battleground states.
Obama is drawing 48 percent support to Romney’s 47 percent among likely voters — a lead well within the poll’s 3.5 percent error margin. Only 4 percent are undecided.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/22/3016362/obama-48-romney-47-in-hard-fought.html#storylink=cpy

[Shoot the Goose]

So 1 point is going Obama?

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/22/3016362/obama-48-romney-47-in-hard-fought.html

I did not see a link to the hard numbers in the poll, but they say that the poll followed registration margins exactly, meaning Dems were over-polled by five points. I just don't see that happening down here. Florida has been shifting GOP for three decades, evidenced by four consecutive terms controlling the Governors seat. Then Rubio. After the 2010 midterms, we had 19 GOP in the House, to 6 Dem.

Our State House is 2:1 GOP. Something like 81:39.

Those numbers do not match registration demographics. I think the difference is "likely voters". Obama carried the state by only 2.5% over McCain in 2008. We know many GOP sat that one out. But they came roaring back in 2010, as Dems were hugely smacked-down, as the House numbers indicate.

Obama is cruising for a Carter'esque losing here.

[Trinnity]

Obama is gonna lose and a lot of lefties are gonna be standing around wondering wtf happened.
I've been saying for over a year now - Romney by 5 or more. I'll stand by that.

[Carygrant]

As Obama inches ahead in key swing states , victory looks probable .
Rumborg supporters sounding rather folorn and somewhat shaken .

[Cigar]

Bluster:


We know many of the polls are unreliable. We also know in the Carter/Reagan election, Carter was leading right up to election day. This is an historical race and no doubt to political buffs, it's fascinating. There's a lot at stake.

Willard Mitt Romney will never ever be President of The United States

[pollycy]

As Obama inches ahead in key swing states , victory looks probable .
Rumborg supporters sounding rather folorn and somewhat shaken .

We're not "folorn" (sic) at all. The old manipulative trick of using fraudulently-constructed poll data is not a new one with hyperlib brainwashers.

You may remember that all the polls showed Jimmy Carter defeating Ronald Reagan in 1980, but in reality, Reagan kicked Carter's ass so hard in the actual election that it's a wonder the man can even sit down to this day! Libocrats use every trick in the book to convince people that we have to have four more years from what is possibly the worst president in this country's history (with the possible exception of Franklin D. Roosevelt)....

They lied about the taxes Romney paid; they lied about Romney's beliefs as a member of the LDS Church; they've even tried dredging up ancient tidbits from Romney's high school days about being a "bully". Nothing has really worked, so, now they are reduced to making Republicans feel defeated and intimidated so that they won't even vote. If there is anything more delusional than today's hyperliberal Democrat, I truly don't know what it could be....

[Shoot the Goose]

We're not "folorn" (sic) at all. The old manipulative trick of using fraudulently-constructed poll data is not a new one with hyperlib brainwashers.

You may remember that all the polls showed Jimmy Carter defeating Ronald Reagan in 1980, but in reality, Reagan kicked Carter's ass so hard in the actual election that it's a wonder the man can even sit down to this day! Libocrats use every trick in the book to convince people that we have to have four more years from what is possibly the worst president in this country's history (with the possible exception of Franklin D. Roosevelt)....

They lied about the taxes Romney paid; they lied about Romney's beliefs as a member of the LDS Church; they've even tried dredging up ancient tidbits from Romney's high school days about being a "bully". Nothing has really worked, so, now they are reduced to making Republicans feel defeated and intimidated so that they won't even vote. If there is anything more delusional than today's hyperliberal Democrat, I truly don't know what it could be....

Agreed. They had Carter up three a month before the election. He lost to Reagan by nine, and the electoral vote was an even larger smackdown.

For those that want even more info about the current skewing, here's the latest article. From today:


This Morning’s Polls Project More Heavily Democratic Electorates Than 2008 (http://thepoliticalforums.com/campaign-spot/328555/mornings-polls-project-more-heavily-democratic-electorates-2008)

Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
In this sample, the partisan split is D+9 compared to D+8 four years ago, and the GOP is five percentage points smaller than in 2008.

Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Somehow a D+7 split has turned into D+11 split, and Republicans’ share of the electorate is nine percentage points less than they were four years ago.

Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.
Each party’s share only shifts a few percentage points, but the overall split goes from D+3 to D+9.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328555/mornings-polls-project-more-heavily-democratic-electorates-2008#


Almost all of the polls from the MSM are projecting an even greater spread favoring Democrats than in 2008. That is absurd for two reasons:

1) 2008 was an outlier, in that GOP voters were unenthused, and many independents and Dems were enthusiastic about Obama. But not now. The GOP is expected to turn out equal to the Dems, and the Independents favor Romney; and

2) In most states, the gap between registered voters has narrowed, in that while there are still more Dems, the GOP has gained ground on them.


In every state, you can virtually lop off four points from whatever the Obama total, and add it to Romney. We are looking at 1980 all over again !!

[Trinnity]

Obama's support is largely fake.

[ptif219]

As Obama inches ahead in key swing states , victory looks probable .
Rumborg supporters sounding rather folorn and somewhat shaken .

Only if you believe Polls that over sample democrats and leave out independents

[ptif219]

Willard Mitt Romney will never ever be President of The United States

Nice dream you have there

[Trinnity]

I really think Romney is gonna win. If he does, the day after, the left is gonna be really freaky butt hurt, and the rest of us can breathe a sigh of relief. Employers will start hiring again. The whole country has been on hold waiting for Obama/Pelosicare to stomp on us - and we can begin to dismantle that. Regulations will be on the plate for a reduction. Taxmageddon will be stopped. This Christmas will either suck with more national depression waiting for the shoe to drop (Obama), OR it will be the best present we could get, real hope to turn the corner and start a REAL recovery.

[Captain Obvious]

Romney's done, stick a fork in him.

December will all be about "woulda shoulda nominated Newt".

[roadmaster]

Most companies are waiting also to see if they will hire or not. If Obama gets it good chance they won't hire.

[RollingWave]

While I wouldn't rule out any possibility, I generally have extremely little faith in conspriacy theory from any side, and in this day and age, I have a hard time seenig that polls could be extremely wrong when it's done by so many different agencies over such a long period of time.

I can cite that we had our own Presidential election at the beginning of this year, all the major polls showed the incumbent winning, except this one online trading poll simulation which had the opposition leader winning. of course it was predictable that the opposition cited that repeatedly as the reason they'll win, except that at the end the result was much closer to the major news paper polls (aka the incumbent won by a pretty significant margin).

Of course, there could be a huge ugly international event of some sort that changes the whole situation dramatically in the next few weeks. but that's not exactly a great way to hang your election hopes on.