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MMC
05-29-2016, 06:52 PM
Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.

If you drill down enough, it’s clear there are at least four paths to a loss, and any one of them poses a real risk for a candidate likely to follow her usual careful, calculating playbook. The cold math of a potential Clinton defeat is not to be found in national polls, but in the Electoral College—and within each state’s unique demographics and culture. Trump won’t dramatically remake the political map, but he doesn’t need to. He just needs to squeeze a little more out of certain voters in certain states, while Clinton draws a little less.

If Clinton pushes away some of her potential supporters; fails to energize others to vote; and fires up Trump’s base by pandering to her own—well, she just might be able to make the numbers work out for him. If he does pull off the election of the century, Trump’s path to 270 Electoral College votes will begin with 164 practically in the bank, from 21 solid-red states generally considered sure things for the Republican nominee. And here’s how Clinton could push more than enough additional states onto Trump’s side of the ledger—Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan—one mistake at a time.

The Final Tally
So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
For what it’s worth, it’s also possible Clinton wins in a landslide, as an increasingly unstable Trump shrinks deeper and deeper into racism, xenophobia and conspiracy theories. But what’s clear is that Democrats can no longer count on a lopsided race that even a problematic candidate running a clumsy campaign can’t lose.

Again: It’s a long way to November, and Trump could always self-destruct. But he probably won’t, and 2016 is shaping up as a contest that a careful Clinton campaign can easily lose, state by state, even as she piles up the popular vote in California and other sure-win places. Demographics are not destiny. In fact, they can be a disaster waiting to happen.....snip~

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz4A5la4QD8
Follow us: @politico on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=politico) | Politico on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=Politico)


Oh and look at that info on Hispanics. What happened there?

MMC
05-30-2016, 07:23 AM
That's Right ya lefties of the lefting leftness. http://www.politicalforum.com/images/smilies/icon_lol.gif 4 paths that cause Hillary to lose and she is walking down all 4 of them. Truly, the Demos should just throw in the towel and say I give up. Wait until around 2050 to come back as party. This way they can actually do the country a service. http://politirant.com/Smileys/oldrant/evil6.gif






Step 1: Take Hispanic enthusiasm for granted.....

It’s been a matter of faith in Democratic circles: Trump’s grotesque demonization of Latin-American immigrants will boost Hispanic turnout and Clinton’s share of their vote. As a result, you’re already hearing a lot less about Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, once the odds-on favorite to become Clinton’s vice presidential running mate. Castro was supposed to be part of a big Democratic push for Hispanic votes this year. Now, the thinking seems to be, those votes will take care of themselves.

But it would be difficult for Trump to keep doing as poorly with Latino voters as he’s done over the past year. And if he’s able to keep his incendiary language to a minimum, there is no guarantee that Clinton’s energy will hold for the many months until the election. There is also reason to think Clinton’s enthusiasm with Hispanic voters needs stoking. A new Fox Latino poll shows Clinton leading Trump by an impressive-sounding 39 points: 62 to 23. But there’s a problem: That 39-point spread is actually less than the 44 by which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012.

Florida, where Democratic confidence is sky-high, carries a critical 29 Electoral College votes. In 2012, according to exit polls, Hispanics made up a larger percentage of the state’s vote than in previous years, and Obama won a higher percentage of them—60 percent—than any Democrat had before. That translated into a 285,600-vote advantage (20 percent) among Hispanic voters for Obama over Romney in the state, which Obama carried by just 73,000 votes overall.
The big question is: Can Clinton sustain that kind of historic lead? All Trump would have to do is roll back the Democratic advantage to 2008 levels, instead of 2012 levels, to reverse the tide. All else being equal, a return to 2008’s numbers—when Hispanics were 14 percent of the vote, and Obama won them by a 15 percent margin rather than 20 percent—would mean Democrats losing 109,200 votes off their advantage. And that could turn Obama’s 73,000-vote Florida victory into a 36,000-vote defeat.


Yes, their numbers are growing. But Hispanics simply don’t like Clinton nearly as much as they like Obama: Her favorable/unfavorable is a net +15 in that Fox Latino poll, while Obama’s is +46. Colorado, where the fast-growing Hispanic population gave 75 percent of its vote to Obama in 2008, is a similar story to Florida. So is Nevada, where all of the major analysts still rate the Senate race between Republican Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto a tossup—suggesting that they aren’t yet foreseeing a torrent of Democratic-voting Hispanics rush the polls in November.

Oh, and did we mention that Hispanic voters are disproportionately young—a staggering 44 percent of eligible Hispanic voters this year are millennials, compared with 27 percent of non-Hispanic whites, according to Pew—and that Sanders has been pulling large numbers of them away from Clinton, just as much as others their age.

Trump Wins:Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29), and possibly Colorado (9) and Nevada (6)....snip~


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz4A8SRJhCJ
Follow us: @politico on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=politico) | Politico on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=Politico)

Peter1469
05-30-2016, 08:11 AM
Clinton's numbers will only get worse.

MMC
05-30-2016, 08:32 AM
Clinton's numbers will only get worse.

Thats true.....after her lil bump for becoming their nominee. It won't matter now and at least the leftness around here can't say they won't know the reason why she will lose. :laugh:

Hows that stat for the Hispanics.....a staggering majority, 44% are millennials. :grin:

JDubya
05-30-2016, 09:18 AM
Watching you people rationalize is truly entertaining.

MMC
05-30-2016, 10:29 AM
Watching you people rationalize is truly entertaining.


Better is watching Bernstein of Boston Magazine and Contributing editor to Politico.....explain why Corrupt Hillary loses.

Step 4: Fumble on trade
As soon as the votes were tallied in 2012, Richard Trumka of the AFL-CIO and Mary Kay Henry of SEIU were claiming unions had delivered Obama’s victory. They argued, with justification, that Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada got into the blue column because of a massive turnout effort from labor. But earlier this year, both Trumka and Henry expressed concerns that Trump could flip that script.

“Our members are responding to Trump’s message,” Henry said in one interview. “Donald Trump is tapping into the very real and very understandable anger of working people,” Trumka said in a speech.

It’s not just that these workers are drawn to the raw emotion of Trump’s “you’ve been screwed” rhetoric. Polls show that union households tend to oppose free trade quite strongly. Sanders has made free trade a centerpiece of his primary campaign against Clinton. Trump, hoping to woo Sanders voters, frequently praises his position on that issue.

Union voters largely agree with Trump that trade deals—including those negotiated by Democratic Presidents Obama and Bill Clinton—have taken their jobs away. Hillary Clinton has yet to counter this attack in any meaningful way. Her history on trade has been careful and political, which has left her struggling to articulate a strong argument against Sanders, let alone Trump. She gave measured support at the time to her husband’s controversial NAFTA deal, but later called it a mistake; voted in favor of most but not all trade deals as senator; and flip-flopped unconvincingly on the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year.

It’s not hard to see how quickly this could start costing her Electoral College votes in the Rust Belt, where Trump hopes to improve on past Republican performance. (And where, you may remember, Clinton had to apologize (http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/hillary-clinton-coal-222719) for threatening to put coal companies out of business.) In Ohio, for example, 22 percent of 2012 voters came from union households, and 60 percent of them voted for Obama. In Wisconsin, a similar share of the electorate voted 2-to-1 for Obama over Romney. In 2016, both states went for Sanders over Clinton in their primaries. In Pennsylvania, where Trump is planning a major effort, union households provided Obama more than half his net margin.

Trump wins: Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10), and maybe Michigan (16).....snip~


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz4A9ZD1pX1
Follow us: @politico on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=politico) | Politico on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=Politico)

treedancer
05-30-2016, 11:47 PM
Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.

If you drill down enough, it’s clear there are at least four paths to a loss, and any one of them poses a real risk for a candidate likely to follow her usual careful, calculating playbook. The cold math of a potential Clinton defeat is not to be found in national polls, but in the Electoral College—and within each state’s unique demographics and culture. Trump won’t dramatically remake the political map, but he doesn’t need to. He just needs to squeeze a little more out of certain voters in certain states, while Clinton draws a little less.

If Clinton pushes away some of her potential supporters; fails to energize others to vote; and fires up Trump’s base by pandering to her own—well, she just might be able to make the numbers work out for him. If he does pull off the election of the century, Trump’s path to 270 Electoral College votes will begin with 164 practically in the bank, from 21 solid-red states generally considered sure things for the Republican nominee. And here’s how Clinton could push more than enough additional states onto Trump’s side of the ledger—Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan—one mistake at a time.

The Final Tally
So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
For what it’s worth, it’s also possible Clinton wins in a landslide, as an increasingly unstable Trump shrinks deeper and deeper into racism, xenophobia and conspiracy theories. But what’s clear is that Democrats can no longer count on a lopsided race that even a problematic candidate running a clumsy campaign can’t lose.

Again: It’s a long way to November, and Trump could always self-destruct. But he probably won’t, and 2016 is shaping up as a contest that a careful Clinton campaign can easily lose, state by state, even as she piles up the popular vote in California and other sure-win places. Demographics are not destiny. In fact, they can be a disaster waiting to happen.....snip~

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz4A5la4QD8
Follow us: @politico on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=politico) | Politico on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bKDyiUp9mr3OhNab7jrHcU&u=Politico)


Oh and look at that info on Hispanics. What happened there?


I hope that the libertarian party can make it to 15% percent in the polls so former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson can mop up the floor with hump and Hillary in teh debates.

MMC
05-31-2016, 05:44 AM
I hope that the libertarian party can make it to 15% percent in the polls so former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson can mop up the floor with hump and Hillary in teh debates.

As long as Johnson is taking votes away from Hillary. Its all goooooooooooood!

Cigar
05-31-2016, 10:25 AM
Don't make me track you down Wednesday November 9th :grin:

birddog
05-31-2016, 10:51 AM
Don't make me track you down Wednesday November 9th :grin:

I believe you will be conspicuous by your absence on November 9.

TrueBlue
05-31-2016, 11:24 AM
Clinton's numbers will only get worse.


Thats true.....after her lil bump for becoming their nominee. It won't matter now and at least the leftness around here can't say they won't know the reason why she will lose. :laugh:

Hows that stat for the Hispanics.....a staggering majority, 44% are millennials. :grin:
Uh, No. The two of you are exceedingly wrong about that.

Hispanics, especially millennials are very much AGAINST TRUMP! Trump has not won them over and won't especially with his stance on immigration, etc. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/laugh1.gif

Be sure to read this most informative great article all the way through! The WINNER? Hillary Clinton!! :)

Even Millennials Want No Part of Trump
By: Sara Gonzales (Diary)

http://www.redstate.com/saragonzales/2016/03/14/even-millennials-want-part-trump/

MMC
05-31-2016, 12:58 PM
Uh, No. The two of you are exceedingly wrong about that.

Hispanics, especially millennials are very much AGAINST TRUMP! Trump has not won them over and won't especially with his stance on immigration, etc. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/laugh1.gif

Be sure to read this most informative great article all the way through! The WINNER? Hillary Clinton!! :)

Even Millennials Want No Part of Trump
By: Sara Gonzales (Diary)

http://www.redstate.com/saragonzales/2016/03/14/even-millennials-want-part-trump/

That's what post 2 pointed out from Politico.....that Trump doesn't do well with the Latinos. But then like it mentioned he can't get any worse and only needs to do better than Romney. Which he is already there.

But then Sander Supporters......over 1/3rd says they wont vote for Hillary. Which Millennials make up the majority of Sander's supporter.

Which the other surprise dropped on the Demos was the fact that Millennials for Latinos make up a majority of the Latino vote. That 44% they are talking about. That the Demos didn't figure on.

Then with BO deporting illegals, even less will be out voting for Demos.

silvereyes
05-31-2016, 01:04 PM
I believe you will be conspicuous by your absence on November 9.

I hope you will.

MMC
05-31-2016, 05:38 PM
Trump Beats Clinton the Way He Beat Bush......
This election is a referendum on political dynasties and the status quo—even with Gary Johnson and a Bill Kristol candidate in the race.....


Even where 21st-century demographics are concerned, Trump may have more of a shot than his dismal polling among young people and racial minorities suggests. Clinton is weak with young voters as well, and the tensions between Clinton’s establishment liberal supporters and the young left have already led to severed alliances and think-tank purges (http://www.vox.com/2016/5/21/11724298/bruenighazi-matt-bruenig-neera-tanden-demos). Trump has an opening—if not to add young voters to his older and whiter base then nevertheless to deprive Clinton of their votes by hammering home her failures. And if Trump could win even in the Republican primaries with forceful opposition to the Iraq War and secretive trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)—causes that resonate with Sanders-leaning young voters—he stands to do better still with those positions in the general election. Clinton personifies the old consensus that Obama’s millennial vote was trying to get rid of when it embraced “Hope and Change.”

Trump has shown he’s prepared to campaign much more aggressively on foreign policy than Bernie Sanders has ever dared. And for a preview of how Trump will perform against Clinton in a debate, just recall how he performed against the GOP’s closest counterpart to Clinton: Jeb Bush. Trump will press her hard on Iraq, much harder than Sanders has done. He’ll hit her on Libya, too. Trump also won’t be any kinder than Sanders has been about Clinton’s coziness with the big banks. The young left may be in for a surprise—one that’s unlikely to lead many to vote for Trump but that may drive deeper the generational wedge between them and Clinton.

The 2016 race pits a decades-old center-left establishment against a newly invigorated populist right. That populist right has already defeated the decades-old center-right establishment of the GOP. It has a fighting chance against Clinton, if Trump sticks to his issues and doesn’t attempt to become a more generic, Romney-like Republican on questions of war and industrial policy.

As for immigration and ethno-racial politics, there could be some surprises here, too. Trump’s critics in the media identify him with the racist and anti-Semitic trolls who support him on Twitter; but millions more Americans identify the Democratic Party with the Social Justice Warriors and other activists whose antics and occasionally violent acts have been widely broadcast on national television over the past two years. If Clinton repudiates this Social Justice left, she risks further alienating her young left base; if she fails to repudiate them, she stands to alienate more of Middle America.

Hillary Clinton represents everything that Trump voters, Republicans, Sanders voters, and Middle America have come to hate: the Iraq War, secretive trade deals and job losses, suffocating political correctness, and the risk of “unrest.” The liberal establishment in both parties—free-market liberal in the GOP’s case, left-liberal in the Democrats’—has known all along how much suffering and resentment its policies have generated. But party elites imagined that none of it mattered: what could voters do, pull the lever for Bush instead of Clinton? Clinton instead of Bush? The fix was in, and had been since the first George Bush took office.

Trump won’t lose any of Romney’s states. Can Clinton really hold all of Obama’s? Probably not: Ohio still has some white working-class Democrats, and Trump’s prospects of winning them seem a lot better than Mitt Romney’s ever were. Trump surprised everyone with his successes in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary; if he can do five points better than Romney in the general election there, the results will be catastrophic for Clinton. Florida remains as much of a battleground as ever: there’s no indication that any trouble with Latino voters will cost him the Sunshine State. This election is as finely balanced and close as 2012 was, and that brings it down to a referendum on the status quo of the last 20 years: should the era of Bush and Clinton continue, or is it time for something new—even if what’s new is named Donald Trump?.....snip~

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/mccarthy/trump-beats-clinton-the-way-he-beat-bush/