How a Brexit could sink Hillary and hand the election to Trump

[Peter1469]

How a Brexit could sink Hillary and hand the election to Trump (http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/06/16/How-Brexit-Could-Sink-Clinton-and-Hand-Election-Trump)

In the end, people vote for their pocket books. Hillary's numbers via Obama are horrible. A Brexit is a repudiation of Hillary's economic policies.


If Britain votes to abandon membership in the European Union next week, the impact on the global economy could be severe (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55176cf2-31fc-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html#axzz4BeCXHNKC) and threaten America’s already anemic growth. The “Brexit poll tracker” at the Financial Times, updated today,shows 47 percent support in the UK for leaving the EU (https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/) and 44 percent for remaining. World markets are jittery.

The Brexit vote on June 23 will come on the heel of a weak U.S. employment report for May, with only 38,000 new jobs (http://www.bls.gov/ces/) created, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while the unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent, revised job numbers showed almost 60,000 fewer job were created in March and April than previously reported, and the number of full-time-job seekers who had to take part time work rose by 468,000 (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/86c1f79e-2983-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4BghhIQ6C), according to the Financial Times.


With capital spending either flat or being cut in a range of industries from fast food to pharma, according to a Reuters report early this year on capex plans for 2016 (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-results-capex-idUSKCN0VB0CZ), and with the oil industry slashing U.S. investment (http://www.investors.com/news/spending-cuts-in-oil-patch-to-reach-1-trillion-hitting-future-production/) by 50 percent, companies’ reluctance to hire would likely get even more pronounced if uncertainty in global markets led to further caution. According to a Manpower survey of 11,000 hiring managers (http://manpowergroup.us/meos/) released Tuesday, 71 percent already plan to keep workforces unchanged in the third quarter, and there was a net weakening of the employment outlook for three of the four regions of the country surveyed.

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[Mac-7]

I dont think the brits will vote to leave.

They are far too domesticated to the wipe-every-nose socialist welfare state to make such a bold decision.

[Mac-7]

But I sure hope I am wrong

[Peter1469]

It is close with a lot of undecided.

[MMC]

It is close with a lot of undecided.

Those voting for their Sovereignty still has the lead. Brussels is already preparing for the exit. Do you think they are jumping the gun?

[Peter1469]

No. But it is too close to call.

[MMC]

No. But it is too close to call.

Time for the Brits to show some of that Churchill backbone. The Greeks are just waiting to tell the French and Germans to take a hike.

[waltky]

Britain's independence day...
http://www.politicalforum.com/images/smilies/confused.gif
World stocks in freefall as UK votes for EU exit
June 24, 2016 - World stocks headed for one the biggest slumps on record on Friday as a decision by Britain to leave the European Union triggered 8 percent falls for Europe's biggest bourses and a record plunge for sterling.


Such a body blow to global confidence could well prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as planned this year, and might even provoke a new round of emergency policy easing from all the major central banks. Risk assets were scorched as investors fled to the traditional safe-harbors of top-rated government debt, Japanese yen and gold. Billions were wiped from share values as Europe saw London's FTSE <.FTSE> drop 6 percent in early deals, Germany's <.DAX> and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> slump 7.5 and 9 percent and Italian and Spanish markets plunge more than 11 percent. The rout was compounded by the fact markets had rallied on Thursday having become increasingly convinced that UK voters would opt to stay in the EU.

Britain's big banks took a $130 billion battering with Lloyds and Barclays plunging as much as 30 percent. EMINI S&P 500 futures were down 4 percent and Japan's Nikkei <.N225> ended down 7.9 percent. The British pound collapsed no less than 18 U.S. cents, easily the biggest fall in living memory, to hit its lowest since 1985. The euro in turn slid 3.2 percent to $1.1012 as investors feared for its very future. Having campaigned to keep the country in the EU, British Prime Minister David Cameron confirmed he would step down. Results showed a 51.9/48.1 percent split for leaving, setting the UK on an uncertain path and dealing the largest setback to European efforts to forge greater unity since World War Two.

Sterling sank a staggering 10 percent at one point and was last at $1.3582 , having carved out a range of $1.3228 to $1.5022. The fall was even larger than during the global financial crisis and the currency was moving two or three cents in the blink of an eye. "It's an extraordinary move for financial markets and also for democracy," said co-head of portfolio investments of London-based currency specialist Millennium Global Richard Benson. "The market is pricing interest rate cuts from the big central banks and we assume there will be a global liquidity add from them in the next few hours," he added. The shockwaves affected all asset classes and regions. The safe-haven yen sprang higher to stand at 102.15 per dollar , having been as low as 106.81 at one stage. The dollar peak decline of 4 percent was the largest since 1998.

That prompted warnings from Japanese officials that excessive forex moves were undesirable. Indeed, traders were wary in case global central banks chose to step in to calm the volatility. The Bank of England said it would take all necessary steps to shield Britain's economy. A source told Reuters it was in touch with other major central banks. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda added his bank was also ready to provide liquidity if needed to ensure market stability. Other currencies across Asia and in eastern Europe as it woke up suffered badly on worries that alarmed investors could pull funds out of emerging markets. Poland, where many of the eastern Europeans in Britain come from, saw its zloty slump 5 percent.

RECESSION FEARS (https://www.yahoo.com/news/sterling-skids-bonds-rally-brexit-results-put-leave-002331490.html?ref=gs)

See also:

Cameron to quit as UK votes to leave EU
Fri, 24 Jun 2016 - The UK votes to leave the European Union, prompting David Cameron to announce he is to step down as prime minister - and UKIP leader Nigel Farage to declare it "independence day".


Prime Minister David Cameron is to step down by October after the UK voted to leave the European Union. Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, he said "fresh leadership" was needed. The PM had urged the country to vote Remain but was defeated by 52% to 48% despite London, Scotland and Northern Ireland backing staying in. UKIP leader Nigel Farage hailed it as the UK's "independence day", while Boris Johnson said the result would not mean "pulling up the drawbridge".

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she was "absolutely determined" to keep Scotland in the EU so a second Scottish independence referendum was now "highly likely". EU chiefs said they expected the UK to begin negotiations to leave "as soon as possible, however painful that process may be". But Boris Johnson, the ex-London mayor and public face of Vote Leave who is now a frontrunner to be next prime minister, said there was "no need for haste" about severing the UK's ties. He said voters had "searched in their hearts" and the UK now had a "glorious opportunity" to pass its own laws, set its own taxes and control its own borders.

Another leading Leave campaigner, Labour's Gisela Stuart said the UK would be a "good neighbour" when it left the EU. The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results.

Flanked by his wife Samantha, Mr Cameron announced shortly after 08:15 BST that he had informed the Queen of his decision to remain in place for the short term and to then hand over to a new prime minister by the time of the Conservative conference in October. He would attempt to "steady the ship" over the coming weeks and months, but that it would be for the new prime minister to carry out negotiations with the EU and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would give the UK two years to negotiate its withdrawal, he said. "The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected," said Mr Cameron. "The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered."

Area-by-area in maps: See how people voted (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36615028)

Related:

Scotland independence vote 'highly likely'
Fri, 24 Jun 2016 - Scotland's first minister says a second independence referendum is "highly likely" after the UK voted to leave the EU.


Nicola Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced the prospect of being taken out of the EU against its will. She said the Scottish government would begin preparing legislation to enable another independence vote. Scotland voted in favour of the UK staying in the EU by 62% to 38%. The UK as a whole has voted to leave, by a margin of 52% to 48%, prompting UK Prime Minister David Cameron to announce he would stand down by October.

The SNP manifesto for May's Holyrood elections said the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there was a "significant and material change" in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will. At a news conference in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said: "It is, therefore, a statement of the obvious that a second referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table," she said.

The Scottish government's resilience committee, which meets in times of emergency, is due to meet on Friday afternoon. Ms Sturgeon said the Scottish cabinet would meet on Saturday and she would make a statement to MSPs on Tuesday. The first minister said there was now a significant divergence between Scotland and the rest of Britain which she "deeply regretted". A majority of voters in all 32 council areas in Scotland voted Remain.

Area-by-area in maps: See how people voted (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030)

[Peter1469]

Money will flood to US business. And gold.

[MMC]

Money will flood to US business. And gold.

Hillary stood with BO peep and the Remain. Got it wrong again, huh? Oh and yeah I heard the SCOTs say they will hold a 2nd referendum to break off from the Brits.

[zelmo1234]

clearly this is not good news for the Democrats. For those that Remember about 6 months ago, I talked about the stagnation in the markets and that metals were becoming cheap. Especially Silver.

Sympathies for those that did not invest.

This Drop should be fairly short and the spike in metals as well. But might be able to take advantage of a quick drop and spike and get that money back into a market that is over sold.

[Truth Detector]

The vote is in and the US stock market is soaring (yesterday); I am not sure why other than WallStreet is no longer a rational institution.

[MMC]

clearly this is not good news for the Democrats. For those that Remember about 6 months ago, I talked about the stagnation in the markets and that metals were becoming cheap. Especially Silver.

Sympathies for those that did not invest.

This Drop should be fairly short and the spike in metals as well. But might be able to take advantage of a quick drop and spike and get that money back into a market that is over sold.

This morning they were spinning that this would cause oil prices to go up. But then they must not have considered the problems OPEC has already. Or they forgot about that Iranian crude hitting the markets.

[waltky]

Oil has gone up a dollar a barrel.

[Mac-7]

Oil has gone up a dollar a barrel.

That should make environmentalists happy

[MMC]

Oil has gone up a dollar a barrel.

Didn't take long, huh?