Bad News for Conservatives: Nate Silver: 79 percent chance Clinton Wins

[Cigar]

Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.

FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office.

“Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”

Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931

Trumpster, meet Dumpster. :biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh:

http://www.thetrumpdump.us/trumpster_dumpster_by_akman9001-d9jlj2l.jpg (http://www.thetrumpdump.us/)

[Subdermal]

The same Nate Silver that gave Trump a 5% chance of capturing the GOP nomination? That Nate Silver?

You'll excuse me while we laugh in your face at who it is you've chosen to support.

:biglaugh:

[Truth Detector]

Nate Silver has predicted incorrectly regarding Trump 8 times. No, now make it 9. :biglaugh:

[Truth Detector]

The same Nate Silver that gave Trump a 5% chance of capturing the GOP nomination? That Nate Silver?

You'll excuse me while we laugh in your face at who it is you've chosen to support.

:biglaugh:

^True story.

[zelmo1234]

I think that it is more likely than not that Hillary is the next President, but I think it will be close.

Clearly if the MSM would vet Hillary and expose the real Clintons, she would be done. But they will run cover and she will likely be the next President.

Which will continue the same policies that we now have. and that is not good.

[Cigar]

The same Nate Silver that gave Trump a 5% chance of capturing the GOP nomination? That Nate Silver?

You'll excuse me while we laugh in your face at who it is you've chosen to support.

:biglaugh:


Yep ... the same one that called it for Obama ... I'll take my Odds over yours ... SeeYa Wednesday November 9th ... sport. :grin:

Don't make me come looking for you.

[Subdermal]

Yep ... the same one that called it for Obama ... I'll take my Odds over yours ... SeeYa Wednesday November 9th ... sport. :grin:

Don't make me come looking for you.

WTF is that supposed to mean...sport?

[Cigar]

Thanks Obama....The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.


If history is any guide, the outcome of this year’s presidential election has already been decided.

With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle.

There is no reason to think that this year, as crazy as it has been, will be different. Spoiler alert: Hillary Clinton wins.

The single best predictor of the electoral outcome is the job approval of the incumbent president — even one who’s not on the ballot. In four of the five elections since 1980 when the incumbent president’s job approval was at or above 50 percent, that party held the White House. The outlier was 2000, when President Bill Clinton enjoyed a 57 percent job approval rating in October yet Al Gore “lost” to George W. Bush.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2016-election-is-already-decided-history-says-hillary-clinton-wins/2016/06/28/8c6e682e-3d49-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html

[zelmo1234]

Thanks Obama....

The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.


If history is any guide, the outcome of this year’s presidential election has already been decided.

With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle.

There is no reason to think that this year, as crazy as it has been, will be different. Spoiler alert: Hillary Clinton wins.

The single best predictor of the electoral outcome is the job approval of the incumbent president — even one who’s not on the ballot. In four of the five elections since 1980 when the incumbent president’s job approval was at or above 50 percent, that party held the White House. The outlier was 2000, when President Bill Clinton enjoyed a 57 percent job approval rating in October yet Al Gore “lost” to George W. Bush.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2016-election-is-already-decided-history-says-hillary-clinton-wins/2016/06/28/8c6e682e-3d49-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html


But it Right track / Wrong track is also a great predictor and that favors Trump. Face it if the GOP had not lied to the Base for the past 12 years, this election would be in the bag for them.

But they turned into Democrats. and Big Government liberals.