Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning

[Peter1469]

Shock poll: Nate Silver’s (https://www.salon.com/2016/07/25/shock_poll_nate_silvers_election_forecast_now_has_ trump_winning/) election forecast now has Trump winning (if the election was held today)

http://media.salon.com/2016/07/538-580x412.jpg

[Subdermal]

Been saying this for months. Been saying that the pundits have this wrong for months.

Months.

Been saying that Trump will win 40 States for months.

[Subdermal]

It is interesting the silence on the 6 point bump Trump received from the RNC - and a 14 point bump amongst independents.

Those types of bumps haven't happened in the last several election cycles.

The train is coming, liberals. You're on the track; you're facing the wrong direction, and you're deaf.

[Bethere]

It is interesting the silence on the 6 point bump Trump received from the RNC - and a 14 point bump amongst independents.

Those types of bumps haven't happened in the last several election cycles.

The train is coming, liberals. You're on the track; you're facing the wrong direction, and you're deaf.

The cnn poll, for example, used adults instead of likely voters.

Garbage in, garbage out.

[Subdermal]

The cnn poll, for example, used adults instead of likely voters.

Garbage in, garbage out.

What did Nate Silver use, deaf leftist?

:biglaugh:

[Cigar]

Been saying this for months. Been saying that the pundits have this wrong for months.

Months.

Been saying that Trump will win 40 States for months.


I wish the election was today so we can end this BS once and for all.

[Cigar]

The cnn poll, for example, used adults instead of likely voters.

Garbage in, garbage out.


A couple weeks ago the Right wouldn't believe anything Nate would say now today they do?

[Common]

In Two Weeks, Clinton's Chances Of Winning The Presidency Has Dropped Over 20 Points Fivethirtyeight is nate silvers non partisan statisticians. The most accurate of all pollsters in 2008

Well, if the election were held today, Trump would have a 57.5 percent chance of winning to Hillary’s 42.5 percent, according (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) to FiveThirtyEight. In this scenario, Trump and Clinton would tie in the popular vote, but Trump would win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania*, and New Hampshire, giving him a 285/252 landslide in the Electoral College.
Now, of course, if we keep to the polls for the November 8 projection, Clinton edges out Trump, 46/44 in the popular vote, with a slim 276/261 victory in the Electoral College. A rather squeaker win for a man Democrats think will bring about the next apocalypse. As for the chances of winning in this projection, it’s almost 50/50, with Clinton having a 53.7 percent chance of wining to Trump’s 46.2.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2016/07/25/clintons-chances-of-winning-the-presidency-drops-like-a-rock-on-fivethirtyeight-n2197515

[Cigar]

Bumps Come, Bumps Go ...

We already know the RNC Plan ... Everything going to hell and Donald will fix it all by himself


Let's hear the DNC Plan before lighting the match.

[Tahuyaman]

In Two Weeks, Clinton's Chances Of Winning The Presidency Has Dropped Over 20 Points

Fivethirtyeight is nate silvers non partisan statisticians. The most accurate of all pollsters in 2008

Well, if the election were held today, Trump would have a 57.5 percent chance of winning to Hillary’s 42.5 percent, according (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) to FiveThirtyEight. In this scenario, Trump and Clinton would tie in the popular vote, but Trump would win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania*, and New Hampshire, giving him a 285/252 landslide in the Electoral College.
Now, of course, if we keep to the polls for the November 8 projection, Clinton edges out Trump, 46/44 in the popular vote, with a slim 276/261 victory in the Electoral College. A rather squeaker win for a man Democrats think will bring about the next apocalypse. As for the chances of winning in this projection, it’s almost 50/50, with Clinton having a 53.7 percent chance of wining to Trump’s 46.2.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2016/07/25/clintons-chances-of-winning-the-presidency-drops-like-a-rock-on-fivethirtyeight-n2197515


I think it is still likely that Hillary Clinton is elected, but she will have absolutely no mandate of any kind. More than 60% of the population believes she is not honest or trustworthy. She's not going to be able to rally national support for any of her tired recycled proposals.

[Cigar]

I think it is still likely that Hillary Clinton is elected, but she will have absolutely no mandate of any kind. More than 60% of the population believes she is not honest or trustworthy. She's not going to be able to rally national support for any of her tired recycled proposals.


Doesn't matter ... any Democrat who Wins will face a opposition party of NO

[Common]

Ive always paid attention to nate silver he has the best history for accuracy out of all of them. Lately hes had some misteps. When he makes predictions not based on MATHMATICAL statistics is when he errs. He ruled trump out of even having a chance to win the GOP primary. In the beginning he even stated he doubted he would last a month.

He had hillary far ahead a month ago, FAR ahead, things seem to be changing.

[Tahuyaman]

Doesn't matter ... any Democrat who Wins will face a opposition party of NO


She will face opposition within her own party. Elected officials more than anything want to be reelected. The only legislators who will support her are those few who are from safe far left districts.

[Common]

Bumps Come, Bumps Go ...

We already know the RNC Plan ... Everything going to hell and Donald will fix it all by himself


Let's hear the DNC Plan before lighting the match.

We know the dnc plan, talk about scumbag whitepeople. Tell hispanics how much the love them and how they are going to keep the border open. Talk some more about those racist white scum, oh btw it will be white people talking about the white racist scum.

Then she will talk about giving stuff away assuring health care and free college for everyone. I think the Drs Hospitals and Universities will have something negative to say about all that, ALONG WITH TAXPAYERS.

She will talk about how wonderful BLM is and how cops suck. We know what going to be said at the DNC

[exotix]

http://s9.tinypic.com/ipv7n6_th.jpg (http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=ipv7n6&s=9)

http://i66.tinypic.com/n6zt6o.jpg

[Tahuyaman]

We know the dnc plan, talk about scumbag whitepeople. Tell hispanics how much the love them and how they are going to keep the border open. Talk some more about those racist white scum, oh btw it will be white people talking about the white racist scum.

Then she will talk about giving stuff away assuring health care and free college for everyone. I think the Drs Hospitals and Universities will have something negative to say about all that, ALONG WITH TAXPAYERS.

She will talk about how wonderful BLM is and how cops suck. We know what going to be said at the DNC

Hillary Clinton is actually in a tough spot. She can't go out there and state the truth. She's in a tough spot because she doesn't have the character or integrity to state the truth.

She can't propose staying the current course, because the vast majority rightly believes we are on the wrong course.

She can't be too critical of the current situation, because she was part of creating it. She has supported virtually everything this administration has done. In some cases she would propose even more failed policy.

[Peter1469]

Notice: Duplicate threads merged

[Safety]

Following to see if Nate Silver's predictions are as closely held as they are when it isn't forecasting a Trump win, as we get nearer to the finish line...

[Peter1469]

Following to see if Nate Silver's predictions are as closely held as they are when it isn't forecasting a Trump win, as we get nearer to the finish line...


I don't think this was a forecast for a win.

The election is in Nov.

This prediction was for the vote being today.

[Common]

Doesn't matter ... any Democrat who Wins will face a opposition party of NO

THat is a good thing, if obama had all yes's we would be totally fucked right now. The mans an asshole

[Subdermal]

A couple weeks ago the Right wouldn't believe anything Nate would say now today they do?

I have maintained that the pundits - Silver included - have been getting this election wrong. I said why he and they were wrong.

Silver, at least, has adjusted his permutations, and considered factors I believe were being ignored or under considered.

As such, his forecast has changed.

Why would I say I don't believe him now?

[Common]

I have maintained that the pundits - Silver included - have been getting this election wrong. I said why he and they were wrong.

Silver, at least, has adjusted his permutations, and considered factors I believe were being ignored or under considered.

As such, his forecast has changed.

Why would I say I don't believe him now?

They dont have it wrong, they are purposely miscalculating and misconstrueing results.

[Subdermal]

Doesn't matter ... any Democrat who Wins will face a opposition party of NO


http://youtu.be/Jbbhzsn6WtE

[Crepitus]

Too early to make predictions. Things are still changing too fast.

Unfortunately Hillary might win the election

Sadly Trump has a chance too.

[Cigar]

Too early to make predictions. Things are still changing too fast.

Unfortunately Hillary might win the election

Sadly Trump has a chance too.


The Choices are not perfect ... that's life, that's Politics.

[Crepitus]

The Choices are not perfect ... that's life, that's Politics.
Not perfect?

http://i106.photobucket.com/albums/m257/empath69/award-understatement.jpg

[Hal Jordan]

The Choices are not perfect ... that's life, that's Politics.

The main parties' choices are boiling crap or freezing crap. No thanks.

[Mac-7]

The main parties' choices are boiling crap or freezing crap. No thanks.

The proud and haughty "non partisans" refuse to vote for either major party candidate because that way they caanot be held responsible for what goes wrong after the election.

by remaining non partisan this species of lib can say "we told you so" no matter which side wins.

[Hal Jordan]

The proud and haughty "non partisans" refuse to vote for either major party candidate because that way they caanot be held responsible for what goes wrong after the election.

by remaining non partisan this species of lib can say "we told you so" no matter which side wins.

Yes, that's exactly why. It couldn't be because both major party candidates are terrible. :rollseyes:

[Mac-7]

Yes, that's exactly why. It couldn't be because both major party candidates are terrible. :rollseyes:

I really dont believe you are just waiting for two perfect candidates to choose from.

[Common Sense]

There is a real possibility Trump will win. It seems that fear is a powerful motivator for many.

[Hal Jordan]

I really dont believe you are just waiting for two perfect candidates to choose from.

I never said anything about perfect. That's simply not possible.

[MisterVeritis]

A couple weeks ago the Right wouldn't believe anything Nate would say now today they do?
It is just another data point.

[Common]

There is a real possibility Trump will win. It seems that fear is a powerful motivator for many.

You label it fear, others label it anti establishment and great disdain for the last 8 yrs. Everything you disagree with commonsense doesnt have to have negative reasons. People are allowed to not agree.

I have stated time and again, that trump will not win. I still say that now. He has everything against him.

[Common]

It is just another data point.

He blankets it as THE ENTIRE RIGHT all the forum members. When it was just a few.

Nate Silver is one of the most accurate of all pollsters. Hes not a pollster hes a mathmatic statistician. He doesnt base his predictions or forecasts on phonecalls and trick questions. He bases it on mathmatics and historical statististcs. YES HES BEEN WRONG and more than a few, just not as much as everyone else.

He was wrong about Trump having only an 8% chance to win the primary. He was wrong last week when he gave trump only a 20% chance to win the election.

Its still to early for any of this to mean anything.

[Hal Jordan]

There is a real possibility Trump will win. It seems that fear is a powerful motivator for many.

Hillary's not any better.

[nathanbforrest45]

I think it is still likely that Hillary Clinton is elected, but she will have absolutely no mandate of any kind. More than 60% of the population believes she is not honest or trustworthy. She's not going to be able to rally national support for any of her tired recycled proposals.

She won't need to. She will have the press on her side who will claim she has that national support. You know that if Hillary wanted to feed the homeless to the hungry elementary school kids the press would claim she has a revolutionary plan to solve two problems at once.

[Common Sense]

Hillary's not any better.

She's far from ideal, however she is light years better than Trump. Trump has no idea as to what being president entails. He is ignorant in regards to both foreign and domestic policy.

I'm all for an outsider, but not a sketchy one.

[nathanbforrest45]

She's far from ideal, however she is light years better than Trump. Trump has no idea as to what being president entails. He is ignorant in regards to both foreign and domestic policy.

I'm all for an outsider, but not a sketchy one.

No you aren't. You want the professional politician. Many of us do not because we have seen what that entails. Thank God you can't vote in this election so I don't need to care what you think..

[Common Sense]

No you aren't. You want the professional politician. Many of us do not because we have seen what that entails. Thank God you can't vote in this election so I don't need to care what you think..

Oh, OK.

Don't worry, I have a few American friends who feel the same way I do and they will be voting for Hillary.

I actually am for an outsider. Trump isn't the right person and he is ignorant of what the job entails. He will not be good for America. Supporting him and nominating him makes America look foolish.

[maineman]

Trump told republican congressmen that he fully supported Article VII of the constitution!

[Peter1469]

She's far from ideal, however she is light years better than Trump. Trump has no idea as to what being president entails. He is ignorant in regards to both foreign and domestic policy.

I'm all for an outsider, but not a sketchy one.

We know Hillary will be mediocre to a Libya-style disaster. That is her record.

Trump is a wild card.

[maineman]

what a difference a week makes, eh? Donald pulled his dick out....had someone pull it along on front of him so that he could step on it every single time he took a step. A week ago, Nate Silver's now-cast did indeed have Trump up by a few percentage points, reflecting the "enormity" of his bounce.

In contrast, after Hillary's significant convention bounce, and Donald's repeatedly perforated penis, what are the odds if the election were held TODAY?



82.2% Clinton
17.7% Trump

ouch!

Khizr Kahn stuck a scimitar up old Donald's ass!

[del]

We know Hillary will be mediocre to a Libya-style disaster. That is her record.

Trump is a wild card.

you misspelled asshat

[The Xl]

Literally every poll that has come out in favor of either candidate has been complete baseless nonsense. I'm tired of hearing about the polls.

[Hal Jordan]

Literally every poll that has come out in favor of either candidate has been complete baseless nonsense. I'm tired of hearing about the polls.

There's only one poll that matters in the end.

[maineman]

Literally every poll that has come out in favor of either candidate has been complete baseless nonsense. I'm tired of hearing about the polls.

I have a pretty insightful recommendation that I hope you take to heart:

Don't click on threads whose title has polls or forecasts or any of those "danger words" in it.

You 'be be so much happier.

[The Xl]

I have a pretty insightful recommendation that I hope you take to heart:

Don't click on threads whose title has polls or forecasts or any of those "danger words" in it.

You 'be be so much happier.

I'd be happier and this place would be better if you left the forum.

[del]

I'd be happier and this place would be better if you left the forum.

tissue?

[The Xl]

There's only one poll that matters in the end.

Basically. Every three days, Trump by 2, Hillary by 8, Trump by 6, Hillary by 3, etc, etc. It's so insanely pointless, utterly meaningless.

[The Xl]

tissue?

Substantive reply?

[Hal Jordan]

Basically. Every three days, Trump by 2, Hillary by 8, Trump by 6, Hillary by 3, etc, etc. It's so insanely pointless and meaningless.

For the most part. The media tries to put meaning on them.

[del]

Substantive reply?

no, i'd rather whine about polls like you

[The Xl]

no, i'd rather whine about polls like you

Tissue?

[maineman]

I'd be happier and this place would be better if you left the forum.

how rude.

[The Xl]

how rude.

Tissue?

[maineman]

I'd be happier and this place would be better if you left the forum.

and you know... it's funny, but just the other day I was seriously considering getting away from the political discussion site game... but now that you've said this? I'm all in! Thanks!

[maineman]

Tissue?

maybe a baseball bat would more closely suit my purpose.

[The Xl]

maybe a baseball bat would more closely suit my purpose.

Playing tough guy doesn't suit you.

[The Xl]

and you know... it's funny, but just the other day I was seriously considering getting away from the political discussion site game... but now that you've said this? I'm all in! Thanks!

Later.

[del]

Tissue?

substantive reply?

[Safety]

So much traction in this thread...

[Hal Jordan]

So much traction in this thread...
http://what-when-how.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/tmp602f29_thumb2222_thumb.png

[Bethere]

Playing tough guy doesn't suit you.

Nor, you.

[maineman]

Playing tough guy doesn't suit you.

hit you some fungo shots... see if you could catch them. you don't strike me as the athletic type.

[maineman]

update on the OP forecast. If the election were held TODAY, the odds of winning are:

83.5% Hillary
16.5% The Donald




Shocking!!!!!!!

[maineman]

he might swirl so far down the drain before the first debate comes along, that Hillary could stand there and read the New York City phone book and just watch Mr. Orange turn red, then purple, then explode... right on stage... like the kid eating pie in "Stand by Me".

The only chance the GOP has is to have all of their senatorial and congressional candidates disavow the bombastic clown, hope to maintain majorities in maybe one chamber, and come up with a REAL alternative to a Hillary second term, imho.

[Bethere]

he might swirl so far down the drain before the first debate comes along, that Hillary could stand there and read the New York City phone book and just watch Mr. Orange turn red, then purple, then explode... right on stage... like the kid eating pie in "Stand by Me".

The only chance the GOP has is to have all of their senatorial and congressional candidates disavow the bombastic clown, hope to maintain majorities in maybe one chamber, and come up with a REAL alternative to a Hillary second term, imho.

I am beginning to regret my 366 prediction!

[maineman]

look at RealClearPolitics. Hillary leads in ten of fourteen "battleground" states and those polls were all from before the conventions. Before Melania's plagiarism. Before Donald's poorly received speech. Before Michelle's awesome speech, and Barack's awesome speech, and Khizr Khan's awesome speech, and Hillary's awesome speech, and Trump's ill-advised lashing out at the Khans, and his Putin connections, and his stumble over Ukraine, before Melania's lesbian soft porn photos.... Every time he tries to go big and bold, he steps on his dick. I love it.

[Peter1469]

Wikileaks

[Bethere]

Wikileaks

Trump U televised depositions...

[Peter1469]

Trump U televised depositions...

I doubt that would make much of a difference.

Maybe we will get lucky and both of them will be forced out of the race.

[Bethere]

I doubt that would make much of a difference.

Maybe we will get lucky and both of them will be forced out of the race.

Just because you guys are unhappy with trump doesn't mean that we should be unhappy with Hillary.

False equivalency is the republican way.

[maineman]

Just because you guys are unhappy with trump doesn't mean that we should be unhappy with Hillary.

False equivalency is the republican way.

exactly.. It is well understood that Peter is very unhappy with Hillary... and that democrats like us are very unhappy with Trump. Peter seems shocked that we are not as unhappy with Hillary as he is. We're not. Are we over the moon, ga ga crazy for her? Some are, I'm not, but I am glad she's my party's candidate and I will proudly support her. On the other hand, I can well imagine how there are republicans who may not like Hillary much at all, but are so appalled at Trump that they will hold their nose and vote for her for the good of THEIR party. Peter is not one of those, even though he thinks he would be lucky if Trump were somehow forced to drop from the race.

[Peter1469]

Just because you guys are unhappy with trump doesn't mean that we should be unhappy with Hillary.

False equivalency is the republican way.

I am not a republican....

[del]

lol