Florida: Probably not a swing state anymore

[Bo-4]

And if this dude's hunch is correct, without Florida .. Republicans may be finished when it comes to national elections. :)


You will also hear them say a kajillion times until Election Day that Florida is a swing state. Well, yes. It has been historically. But the combination of massive demographic changes since 2012 and Trump’s anorexic performance among college-educated whites makes me wonder if Florida is a swing state this year at all. And while the Republicans might nominate a normal candidate in 2020, the state’s demography is galloping away from the GOP.

In sum, 2016 could be the year that Florida stopped becoming a swing state. First, demography. Florida’s minority population is now above 40 percent (http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/presentations/population-demographics/DemographicTrends_11-6-13.pdf), with the Hispanic population at around 25 percent. In addition, Hispanics are registering to vote in large numbers, and they’re heavily Democratic (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/09/democratic-edge-in-hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/).
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/09/is-florida-even-a-swing-state-anymore.html

Clinton v Trump - Florida (most recent poll)




Suffolk University (http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/1094.php)
8/1 - 8/3
500 LV
4.4
48
42
Clinton +6

[Subdermal]

The definition of a 'swing state' is one which returns volatile - mixed - results in short periods of time.

Ergo: your hopes and dreams are meaningless. Florida remains a swing state.

[Bo-4]

The definition of a 'swing state' is one which returns volatile - mixed - results in short periods of time.

Ergo: your hopes and dreams are meaningless. Florida remains a swing state.

And said definition no longer applies.

Read the story ;-)

[Subdermal]

And said definition no longer applies.

Read the story ;-)

It applies. The 'reasoning' is partisan, and poor.

[maineman]

The hispanic vote in Florida will sink Trump. no doubt. On RealClearPolitics, the gap between them has grown nearly every day since the DNC. He's taking on water faster than he can bail.

[Bo-4]

It applies. The 'reasoning' is partisan, and poor.

We get it - ALL reasoning not in line with your thinking is "partisan and poor".

[Bo-4]

The hispanic vote in Florida will sink Trump. no doubt. On RealClearPolitics, the gap between them has grown nearly every day since the DNC. He's taking on water faster than he can bail.

I realize it's early, but my hunch is that this won't go well for them.

And judging from the over-confidence we see here in tPF, some of them are gonna need therapy ;-)

[Oboe]

And if this dude's hunch is correct, without Florida .. Republicans may be finished when it comes to national elections. :)


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/09/is-florida-even-a-swing-state-anymore.html

Clinton v Trump - Florida (most recent poll)




Suffolk University (http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/1094.php)
8/1 - 8/3
500 LV
4.4
48
42
Clinton +6






15681

[Bo-4]

-

Good point, Florida has always had electile issues.

But it made me think - they have a crooked governor, and he may be able to rig it for Trump.

[maineman]

at some point, they'll all just start realizing that it's over and they'll just keep up the facade to avoid appearing like idiots. Then, when Hillary trounces his ass and has big huge coattails, they'll all start whining and either claiming that the election was rigged, that there was massive voter fraud, or that the GOP made its mistake by not nominating a true conservative (again). It's kinda starting to feel like 1964... Trump may only get the deep south and the states where prairie dogs outnumber the people and that's about it.

[MisterVeritis]

Do people want handouts or do they want to make a life and earn a living.
Do people want more of the same policies that got us here? Or do people want a vibrant, growing economy?

I believe people want a growing economy. only Trump offers a pro-economic growth plan.

Trump is going to win.

[maineman]

now that there's some purdy whistlin'.

[MisterVeritis]

now that there's some purdy whistlin'.
I suppose if you like a tune with the truth.