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View Full Version : This supposed "wave" of voters for Trump



texan
10-07-2016, 12:22 PM
I have been asking many Trump supporters that I know haven't been voting in the past if they are registered. Very few have!

Cigar
10-07-2016, 12:24 PM
Maybe they live in places that suppress the Vote.

midcan5
10-07-2016, 12:34 PM
Maybe they live in places that suppress the Vote.

You mean like a republican controlled state?

Cigar
10-07-2016, 12:37 PM
Sometimes you do get what you Vote for ...

Cigar
10-07-2016, 12:42 PM
https://media.giphy.com/media/cEb1tO6Xvn0DS/giphy.gif

Mark III
10-07-2016, 01:06 PM
Maybe they think all you need to vote is a photo ID.

texan
10-07-2016, 01:19 PM
Thank you for your thoughts, very intelligent commentary.......and to keep it alive the video you posted of Trump reflects what your typical posts looks like.

IMPress Polly
10-07-2016, 02:23 PM
texan wrote:
I have been asking many Trump supporters that I know haven't been voting in the past if they are registered. Very few have!

Well I have my own preferences, but nevertheless I think most people would recognize that I try to be sober and objective in my own political predictions. That said, I've noticed the same thing, to which end I don't think the L.A. Times' polling model (that's the one that presumes the so-called Trump wave and always shows him in the lead no matter what) is actually correct. I still consider the NBC/Wall Street Journal polls the gold standard, at least when it comes to national polling data.

texan
10-10-2016, 03:16 PM
Well I have my own preferences, but nevertheless I think most people would recognize that I try to be sober and objective in my own political predictions. That said, I've noticed the same thing, to which end I don't think the L.A. Times' polling model (that's the one that presumes the so-called Trump wave and always shows him in the lead no matter what) is actually correct. I still consider the NBC/Wall Street Journal polls the gold standard, at least when it comes to national polling data.

Here is some information on the LA Times / USC polling that not many know. It is not an outlying poll it is legit according to Real Clear Politics. It was the most accurate poll in 2012 and was different than any other poll. 2012 was it's first year. The methodology is different than all other polling seriously considered by RC Politics. Also, keep in mind that USC and the LA Times are not conservative institutions.

For the last 2 months they have polled the same 3000 voters rather than calling random voters each week (it will continue right up to the election). They ask them questions about the current events each week to see what changes may sway their votes. It is divided about evenly with registered likely voters (Pug, Dem and Ind). So it is somewhat revolutionary in polling but proved very accurate last time around.

You are making assumptions on them "predicting a Trump wave." The information is there to review they didn't predict a wave. Don't listening to pundits or partisans, both sides attack and d-legitimize any and everything they do not like. The USC political professor in charge was on TV last week with the RC Politic's head guy and discussing the polling mechanics. This is a good example of how things can get skewed by people, heck some have gotten me at times because there is some much info being tossed out and scrambled around.

My big dem lawyer best friend questioned me on this poll calling it trolling, he then went reviewed the poll and agreed there is some value to the poll. He looked today and said it has been constantly 3 - 4 points and it is still 3 points today. We wanted to see if it swung a couple of points to see how it affected the same voters. I think it just proves people really don't like Clinton as the choice over Trump and that is the only reason he wasn't beat badly already.

Hope this helps understand that poll better.

Cigar
10-10-2016, 03:18 PM
Trump back to reliable numbers...https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CubfzaBVMAAXabD.jpg

Peter1469
10-10-2016, 03:39 PM
The polls don't mean anything this far out. The people don't remember what they ate for breakfast yesterday.