Green Arrow's 2016 Election Forecast

[Green Arrow]

I feel it's close enough to the election for me to feel comfortable making a prediction on how it's going to shake-up. Keep in mind any of this is subject to change, anything can happen between now and Election Day. This is just what I feel is the most likely scenario at this stage, and it's based on polling and empirical study.

President:

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%, 333 electoral votes
Donald Trump (R) 39%, 205 electoral votes
Gary Johnson (L) 10%, 0 electoral votes
Jill Stein (G) 3%, 0 electoral votes
Evan McMullin (I) 1%, 0 electoral votes

Senate:

Republicans - 51 seats (42 safe, plus Toomey (PA), Blunt (MO), Burr (NC), Rubio (FL), Heck (NV), Boustany (LA), Paul (KY), Portman (OH), and Grassley (IA))
Democrats - 49 seats (44 safe, plus Bennet (CO), Duckworth (IL), Feingold (WI), Bayh (IN), Hassan (NH))

House:

Republicans - 230
Democrats - 205 (a few pick-ups)

Governors:

Republicans - 31 (2 losses, 2 pick-ups: New Hampshire and West Virginia)
Democrats - 18 (2 pick-ups, North Carolina and Indiana)

[nathanbforrest45]

As much as I don't want to I think you may be right.

[Cigar]

... and 4 more years of Obstruction, Congressional Investigations and Congress adding more Vacation days to their calendar.

In February, Version 2.0 of The GOP Autopsy

... then blame The Democrats for not getting anything done.

[Bethere]

I feel it's close enough to the election for me to feel comfortable making a prediction on how it's going to shake-up. Keep in mind any of this is subject to change, anything can happen between now and Election Day. This is just what I feel is the most likely scenario at this stage, and it's based on polling and empirical study.

President:

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%, 333 electoral votes
Donald Trump (R) 39%, 205 electoral votes
Gary Johnson (L) 10%, 0 electoral votes
Jill Stein (G) 3%, 0 electoral votes
Evan McMullin (I) 1%, 0 electoral votes

Senate:

Republicans - 51 seats (42 safe, plus Toomey (PA), Blunt (MO), Burr (NC), Rubio (FL), Heck (NV), Boustany (LA), Paul (KY), Portman (OH), and Grassley (IA))
Democrats - 49 seats (44 safe, plus Bennet (CO), Duckworth (IL), Feingold (WI), Bayh (IN), Hassan (NH))

House:

Republicans - 230
Democrats - 214 (22 pick-ups)

Governors:

Republicans - 31 (2 losses, 2 pick-ups: New Hampshire and West Virginia)
Democrats - 18 (2 pick-ups, North Carolina and Indiana)You have 9 more house seats than there actually are.

[Cigar]

You have 9 more house seats than there actually are.


It's Rigged :laugh:

[Green Arrow]

You have 9 more house seats than there actually are.

You are correct. My Congressional map wasn't cooperating so I had to count by hand.

Make it 230 Republican and 205 Dem.

[nathanbforrest45]

... and 4 more years of Obstruction, Congressional Investigations and Congress adding more Vacation days to their calendar.

In February, Version 2.0 of The GOP Autopsy

... then blame The Democrats for not getting anything done.

Actually, its the tax and spend democrats who always want something done. I think most conservatives would be very content if nothing got done, no new laws passed, no new spending programs, just have the country survive for a change.

[Boris The Animal]

Actually, its the tax and spend democrats who always want something done. I think most conservatives would be very content if nothing got done, no new laws passed, no new spending programs, just have the country survive for a change.
That plus with the Senate still under GOP control, the lying tw@t will have a tough time trying to stack the SCOTUS with radical Leftists.

[Private Pickle]

The GOP and their constituents deserve exactly what they get on this one....

[Common Sense]

While I agree with your assessment GA, I wish I could find the post where you guaranteed me Clinton wouldn't win the nomination of the presidency. ;)

[Bethere]

That plus with the Senate still under GOP control, the lying tw@t will have a tough time trying to stack the SCOTUS with radical Leftists.
We don't need to stack the court. 4-4 has already stopped a steady stream of 50 years of Republican judicial activism.

I laugh, heartily.

[Green Arrow]

While I agree with your assessment GA, I wish I could find the post where you guaranteed me Clinton wouldn't win the nomination of the presidency. ;)

Nobody is right 100% of the time. I'll settle for 95% ;)

[nic34]

Agree with most, but not the Senate. Trending Dem.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

[Green Arrow]

Agree with most, but not the Senate. Trending Dem.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

I don't disagree. The polls are so close in Missouri, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and New Hampshire that they could go either way.

[nathanbforrest45]

Nobody is right 100% of the time. I'll settle for 95% ;)


Even Rush Limbaugh only claims 98.7 percent right

[nathanbforrest45]

If the Democrats take the White House and Congress you can kiss this country goodbye. We will be another Canada by the end of the decade.

[Cigar]

If the Democrats take the White House and Congress you can kiss this country goodbye. We will be another Canada by the end of the decade.


Didn't you say that in 2008? :laugh:

[Tahuyaman]

I feel it's close enough to the election for me to feel comfortable making a prediction on how it's going to shake-up. Keep in mind any of this is subject to change, anything can happen between now and Election Day. This is just what I feel is the most likely scenario at this stage, and it's based on polling and empirical study.

President:

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%, 333 electoral votes
Donald Trump (R) 39%, 205 electoral votes
Gary Johnson (L) 10%, 0 electoral votes
Jill Stein (G) 3%, 0 electoral votes
Evan McMullin (I) 1%, 0 electoral votes)

I agree with that. I've said since the beginning that Clinton wins without receiving a majority of the popular vote.