View Full Version : Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide
Peter1469
10-23-2016, 09:51 AM
Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide (http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/)
http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Poll_102316.jpg
Beevee
10-23-2016, 09:59 AM
How many points behind does that leave him then in relation to other polls?
Peter1469
10-23-2016, 10:18 AM
Can you trust any of the polls?
Crepitus
10-23-2016, 10:20 AM
Not really. Some say Clinton by 12-15 points, others Trump by 1-3 points. NYT gives Clinton a 97% chance of victory as of today, but I saw somewhere (can't seem to find it again though) that Trump has a 57% chance.
exploited
10-23-2016, 10:21 AM
How's Gary Johnson, your preferred candidate, doing?
Crepitus
10-23-2016, 10:21 AM
^3%^
Newpublius
10-23-2016, 10:23 AM
Can you trust any of the polls?
You really can't. I mean, seriously, I don't take the polls, and I consider none of them to be conclusive or dispositive.
Right now, polling itself has some serious issues with respect to accuracy just because of cell phones and people not answering phones, etc......
IN 2004 I found Rasmussen Report and for that election they turned out to be accurate. In 2012, Rasmussen kind've burned their own brand though.
In 2012 Nate Silver emerged as the consensus for being most accurate, so right now you have to look at him first.....now he could go the same way Rasmussen did.......
1. media wants a horserace
2. media outlets are biased for one side or the other
3. polling in the modern era needs to adjust to the realities of how people are communicating.
Newpublius
10-23-2016, 10:25 AM
Not really. Some say Clinton by 12-15 points, others Trump by 1-3 points. NYT gives Clinton a 97% chance of victory as of today, but I saw somewhere (can't seem to find it again though) that Trump has a 57% chance.
And of course you read that and you note the NY Times' liberal bias and my guess is that the 57% chance is likely a conservative source. Googling the 57% number I am finding a Breitbart link to a Nate Silver article but it is dated in July 2016 so its no longer temporally relevant.
Crepitus
10-23-2016, 10:29 AM
And of course you read that and you note the NY Times' liberal bias and my guess is that the 57% chance is likely a conservative source. Googling the 57% number I am finding a Breitbart link to a Nate Silver article but it is dated in July 2016 so its no longer temporally relevant.
Possibly, I saw that too when I was trying to find it again but I am sure I saw something with a current date on it. My point is just that nobody really knows.
maineman
10-23-2016, 10:30 AM
If anyone on here will be surprised by a Hillary victory on election night, they've had WAY too much koolaid.
gamewell45
10-23-2016, 10:33 AM
Can you trust any of the polls?
Peter, I'm sure we can both agree--as I've mentioned in here in the past--the best and accurate poll is conducted on election day!
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 10:37 AM
If anyone on here will be surprised by a Hillary victory on election night, they've had WAY too much koolaid.
If anyone is surprised that if she's elected there will be an Article V convention of the states to abolish the current government within 1 year;They should not be.
Mayne.
Crepitus
10-23-2016, 10:42 AM
If anyone is surprised that if she's elected there will be an Article V convention of the states to abolish the current government within 1 year;They should not be.
Mayne.
LOL. If anyone is surprised the usual suspects are falling into paranoid delusions they should not be.
The Xl
10-23-2016, 10:44 AM
All the polls are nonsense. Regardless of who they're favoring.
If anyone is surprised that if she's elected there will be an Article V convention of the states to abolish the current government within 1 year;They should not be.
Mayne.
hello, veritis
Crepitus
10-23-2016, 10:49 AM
hello, veritis
I thought that posting style looked somewhat familiar.....
I thought that posting style looked somewhat familiar.....
should be coming up with the executions fairly soon lol
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 10:57 AM
hello, veritis
Look guy;I realize you're about as sharp as a marble.
Don't start jumping to unfounded conclusions because it will probably bite you in the ass.
I have seen this "veritis" guy.Not here, though.
I have also seen Mayne.Not here as well.
As a hint:Notice that is not his name here. ;)
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/hEfa0C897H4/maxresdefault.jpg
Peter1469
10-23-2016, 11:00 AM
How's Gary Johnson, your preferred candidate, doing?
The chart above has it. Take a look.
maineman
10-23-2016, 11:18 AM
If anyone is surprised that if she's elected there will be an Article V convention of the states to abolish the current government within 1 year;They should not be.
Mayne.why do you purposely misspell my name?
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 11:27 AM
why do you purposely misspell my name?
Why do you at that other place?
maineman
10-23-2016, 11:31 AM
Why do you at that other place?
I don't spell my name that way at any place.
Safety
10-23-2016, 11:34 AM
hello, veritis
You mean he made a sock so that after Nov.8th he can continue posting without hiding in shame?
LoL.
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 11:52 AM
I don't spell my name that way at any place.
I'm sorry,I had you confused with someone else.
AZ Jim
10-23-2016, 12:04 PM
I put a lot of stock in Nate Silver and the Oddsmakers when it comes to good reads on this election.
Silvers Analysis http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Oddsmakers https://electionbettingodds.com/
maineman
10-23-2016, 12:05 PM
I'm sorry,I had you confused with someone else.
no sweat.
LoL Pete - this one is more recent:
ABC News Tracking (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a12016ElectionTrackingNo1.pdf)
10/20 - 10/22
874 LV
3.5
53
41
Clinton +12
Not to mention, swing states are all that matter and Hillary has a commanding lead not only in those polls, but in early voting by Dems.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/index.html
Face it buddy, the Fat Lady is warming up her voice in the green room. ;-)
And now here's something you're REALLY gonna hate:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/
Peter1469
10-23-2016, 01:58 PM
I am prepared for the crash. Are you?
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 02:00 PM
LoL Pete - this one is more recent:
ABC News Tracking (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a12016ElectionTrackingNo1.pdf)
10/20 - 10/22
874 LV
3.5
53
41
Clinton +12
Not to mention, swing states are all that matter and Hillary has a commanding lead not only in those polls, but in early voting by Dems.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/index.html
Face it buddy, the Fat Lady is warming up her voice in the green room. ;-)
And now here's something you're REALLY gonna hate:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/
Do you seriously expect truth from the Clinton News Network? :slap:
Do you really expect anyone to regard them as credible?
Especially after it's been proven the way they lie by omission and also outright lie?
Try a different source.
TrueBlue
10-23-2016, 02:16 PM
You need to get a load of THIS!! It is Clinton 50% to Trump 38%! Very telling isn't it! :)
http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/72043-Clinton-Vaults-to-a-Double-Digit-Lead-Boosted-by-Broad-Disapproval-of-Trump-(POLL)
AZ Jim
10-23-2016, 04:09 PM
All the polls are nonsense. Regardless of who they're favoring.:roflmao:
suds00
10-23-2016, 04:46 PM
i'd rather be ahead a week before the election than not.
AZ Jim
10-23-2016, 05:35 PM
There is much disappointment and sorrow by the rightwing agents here. They might as well suck it up and understand that their petty grievances with America is surpassed by those of us with a more magnanimous social posture and vision for a great America. We will treat them better than they would have treated us.
Peter1469
10-23-2016, 06:04 PM
Hillary will collapse the economy. And who knows what other nation she will destroy for no good reason.
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 07:56 PM
Hillary will collapse the economy. And who knows what other nation she will destroy for no good reason.
The USA
She's already talking "No Fly zone" in Syria.
She supports all the bad ideas coming from our government in that area.
What I think needs to happen there:
Leave Assad alone,don't give weapons and money to rebels.
Support the Kurds.Condemn Turkey for attacking them.
^All of that is wishful thinking.
Incirluk AFB is done,by the way.All ties to Erdogan should be cut.He's doing bad,and the USA needs to be no part of that.
All the nukes are gone,Turkey is pretty messed up right now.Not long ago (ok, 10 years) it was better.
Come on,Turkey is attacking Kurds who are fighting and winning against the Daesh.
That's not cool in any kind of way.
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 08:02 PM
There is much disappointment and sorrow by the rightwing agents here. They might as well suck it up and understand that their petty grievances with America is surpassed by those of us with a more magnanimous social posture and vision for a great America. We will treat them better than they would have treated us.
Tell me more about Hillary's College Thesis.
Let's see it and revel in it,aye?
What was it on again?
decedent
10-23-2016, 08:45 PM
All of these pollster use real data. The variation is from the differing ways the data is obtained (phone, exit polls, etc.), history (how blue/red a district is, incumbency, etc.), and media sentiment analysis (positive/negative mentions about candidates on news, social media, etc.). Many simulations are run on these data (or random subsets) using various algorithms. All of these discrepancies create the disparity between poll results.
I thought that posting style looked somewhat familiar.....
I was thinking it was recently-banned Oboe, but Oboe usually passed out quicker.
Crepitus
10-23-2016, 08:49 PM
I was thinking it was recently-banned Oboe.
Another possibility.
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 09:31 PM
Oh LQQK! Here's Hillary's College Thesis!
http://www.hillaryclintonquarterly.com/documents/HillaryClintonThesis.pdf
Enjoy! Enjoy the subversiveness.
That is not the musings of an American Patriot.I can say that with no doubt.
maineman
10-23-2016, 09:33 PM
:yawn:
too little, too late, Trump butt sucker.
MRogersNhood
10-23-2016, 09:38 PM
:yawn:
too little, too late, Trump butt sucker.
That's a nasty picture to bring to mind.
Doesn't that qualify as name-calling?
I'm not a "reporter" I don't give a crap. :roflmao:
Croft
10-24-2016, 03:41 AM
Funny how Obama was so concerned about Trump saying the election is rigged. After all as this guy's vid shows he had a few concerns himself back in 2008.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s74Cg9hVjbA
ripmeister
10-24-2016, 01:54 PM
Can you trust any of the polls?
Whether you trust national polls or not is irrelevant as national polls are irrelevant.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.1.8 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.