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Peter1469
11-02-2016, 06:21 PM
Today’s AI does not justify basic income (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602747/todays-artificial-intelligence-does-not-justify-basic-income/)

We have discussed the rise of robots and the loss of jobs. We have also talked about basic income. This article ties them both together.

I agree with the author is the sort term, and in the long term I am not sure that it will matter.


Not a day goes by when we do not hear about the threat of AI taking over the jobs of everyone from truck drivers (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/17/self-driving-trucks-impact-on-drivers-jobs-us) to accountants (https://www.icas.com/ca-today-news/how-accountancy-and-finance-are-using-artificial-intelligence) to radiologists (http://www.itnonline.com/content/blogs/greg-freiherr-industry-consultant/artificial-intelligence-may-hold-key-radiologys-future). An analysis coming out of McKinsey (http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/four-fundamentals-of-workplace-automation) suggested that “currently demonstrated technologies could automate 45 percent of the activities people are paid to perform.” There are even online tools (http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/21/408234543/will-your-job-be-done-by-a-machine) based on research from the University of Oxford to estimate the probability that various jobs will be automated.

This concern that progress in AI will make most human labor obsolete has led some to call for a (universal) basic income, in which all citizens periodically and unconditionally receive money from the state (see “Basic Income: A Sellout of the American Dream (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601499/basic-income-a-sellout-of-the-american-dream/)”). Y Combinator (https://www.ycombinator.com/), a prominent startup incubator in Silicon Valley, will run a pilot study of basic income (https://blog.ycombinator.com/basic-income) in Oakland, California, and its president has stated that “at some point in the future, as technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, we’re going to see some version of this at a national scale.” A European Parliament draft report recently stated that in light of the possible effects on the labor market of robotics and AI, “a general basic income should be seriously considered,” and the organization “invites all Member States to do so.” And in June of this year, Switzerland even held a referendum on basic income (though 77 percent of voters voted against it).



Is a collapse of the demand for human labor really imminent? As an AI researcher, I think the answer is no, and I will explain why.

Read more at the link.

Crepitus
11-02-2016, 07:10 PM
I think the basic income thing is an idea who's time is coming soon.

Dr. Who
11-02-2016, 08:08 PM
Today’s AI does not justify basic income (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602747/todays-artificial-intelligence-does-not-justify-basic-income/)

We have discussed the rise of robots and the loss of jobs. We have also talked about basic income. This article ties them both together.

I agree with the author is the sort term, and in the long term I am not sure that it will matter.



Read more at the link.
I don't think anyone believes that AI will eliminate all labor in the near future, but it will eliminate a significant number of blue collar jobs and certainly permit the reassignment of the sorts of jobs that support staff do in the white collar world to AI. Let's take the legal field. AI may not replace the lawyers anytime soon, but what about the work of paralegals, legal assistants and legal secretaries? There is no reason why AI can't churn out pleadings, check on liens, put together contracts from boilerplate, do legal research, respond to calls, take messages or many other sundry tasks that are currently performed by people.

Peter1469
11-02-2016, 08:43 PM
I don't think anyone believes that AI will eliminate all labor in the near future, but it will eliminate a significant number of blue collar jobs and certainly permit the reassignment of the sorts of jobs that support staff do in the white collar world to AI. Let's take the legal field. AI may not replace the lawyers anytime soon, but what about the work of paralegals, legal assistants and legal secretaries? There is no reason why AI can't churn out pleadings, check on liens, put together contracts from boilerplate, do legal research, respond to calls, take messages or many other sundry tasks that are currently performed by people.

Right. Even as computers became more capable legal secretaries were seriously replaced. Back in the day a Big Law firm would have a secretary for every lawyer, then they went to typing pools. Now there is one per practice group.

Dr. Who
11-02-2016, 08:53 PM
Right. Even as computers became more capable legal secretaries were seriously replaced. Back in the day a Big Law firm would have a secretary for every lawyer, then they went to typing pools. Now there is one per practice group.
Yes and in the next 5-10 years it might just be an AI and somebody to do the running around - the latter might even be a robot.

Peter1469
11-02-2016, 09:05 PM
Yes and in the next 5-10 years it might just be an AI and somebody to do the running around - the latter might even be a robot.

More like 50-75 years.

Dr. Who
11-02-2016, 09:20 PM
More like 50-75 years.
The pace of technological advancement is exponential. It won't be 50-75 years before most non-professional jobs are eliminated. Robotics is also advancing rapidly. I say 5-10 years before you start seeing robots on the streets running errands like courier work.

Peter1469
11-02-2016, 09:22 PM
The pace of technological advancement is exponential. It won't be 50-75 years before most non-professional jobs are eliminated. Robotics is also advancing rapidly. I say 5-10 years before you start seeing robots on the streets running errands like courier work.

Some people agree with that. Some people agree with the OP. I am sure there are a lot of other opinions out there as well.

Doing tasks that require discretion is far off.

Green Arrow
11-02-2016, 09:27 PM
More like 50-75 years.

Robots are already working as nurses and caregivers in nursing homes in Japan. I doubt it'll take 20, let alone 50-75.

Green Arrow
11-02-2016, 09:28 PM
Anyway, I don't know why a UBI is so controversial. The great freedom-loving founder, Thomas Paine, proposed one way back in 1795. Even Milton Friedman advocated a UBI in 1962.

Peter1469
11-02-2016, 09:30 PM
Robots are already working as nurses and caregivers in nursing homes in Japan. I doubt it'll take 20, let alone 50-75.

There is a third opinion.

Peter1469
11-02-2016, 09:32 PM
Anyway, I don't know why a UBI is so controversial. The great freedom-loving founder, Thomas Paine, proposed one way back in 1795. Even Milton Friedman advocated a UBI in 1962.

The last plan that I posted on replaced all welfare. Every citizen got $12K a year (plus whatever health insurance cost).

I don't remember what the cost of it was or how it compared to the current welfare state. If it is a cent cheaper, I would take it.

But what do we do with unemployable people who can't live on $12K a year.

Green Arrow
11-02-2016, 09:33 PM
The last plan that I posted on replaced all welfare. Every citizen got $12K a year (plus whatever health insurance cost).

I don't remember what the cost of it was or how it compared to the current welfare state. If it is a cent cheaper, I would take it.

But what do we do with unemployable people who can't live on $12K a year.

It would give us room to maneuver and deal with the high cost of living. Lower the cost of living and the problem solves itself.

Peter1469
11-02-2016, 09:34 PM
It would give us room to maneuver and deal with the high cost of living. Lower the cost of living and the problem solves itself.

That is an easy fix.

I believe it is call projects and shanty towns. But if they don't have to work, they should be clean and in good order.