Professor With "Remarkable" Record of Predicting Elections Says Trump Will Win.....

[MMC]

Uh oh.....this isn't good the Demos and the leftness.



Forget what the polls and pundits are saying, Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, predicts Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth.

Norpoth, who has accurately predicted the last five presidential elections, uses two models. The first, he told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, is the primary model, which tracks how the candidates are performing, and “it usually turns out the candidate who does better in his party's primaries or her party’s primaries beats the other guy who does less well.”

He used the primary races in South Carolina and New Hampshire for the 2016 election, where Trump won and did better than Clinton did in the Democratic race.

The second model, he explains, is called the Swing of the Pendulum, which is the tendency for a change after two terms of a party being in the White House. This, of course, gives the prediction that a Republican will win in 2016.

Norpoth is so convinced by his models that he’s putting his money where his mouth is. He bought shares in the Republican candidate in the Iowa Electronic Markets a long time ago and he’s sticking with it, he said......snip~

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbar...l-win-n2236279

[MMC]

Oh my.....now another Professor says Trump will win. Imagine that.


Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win.....

Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said Democrats would not be able to hold on to the White House.

So plenty has changed. But one thing hasn't: Lichtman, author of “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” is sticking with his prediction of a Trump victory.

If you aren't familiar with his somewhat unique prediction system, here are the basics: The keys to the White House, he says, are a set of 13 true/false statements. If six of them are false, the incumbent party loses the presidency. His system has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every U.S. presidential election since 1984. Our first interview went into the keys more in-depth, and in September he said the keys were settled enough to make an official prediction of a Democratic loss and a Trump win.

THE FIX: Readers can learn a lot about the keys from the previous interviews we’ve done, but let’s remind people of the quick version: Your system for predicting the outcome of the election stays away from polls, electoral college maps and candidates’ histories in favor of a more broad historical evaluation.

A lot of people would look at the events of the last month — the Access Hollywood tape obtained by The Washington Post, the presidential debates and the shifts in polling — and say, this has got to effect the keys somehow.

Donald Trump’s severe and unprecedented problems bragging about sexual assault and then having ten or more women coming out and saying, “Yes, that’s exactly what you did” — this is without precedent. But it didn’t change a key.

Your critics might say that if Secretary Clinton wins the election, or somehow the keys shift and the prediction changes, then what was the point of a prediction in the first place? Is it possible you’ll have to reevaluate the keys if they don’t turn out to be right this time?

I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything, including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House. Look, I’m not a psychic. I don’t look at a crystal ball. The keys are based on history. And they’re based on a lot of changes in history, they’re very robust. But there can come a time when change is so cataclysmic that it changes the fundamentals of how we do our politics, and this election has the potential — we don’t know yet, but it has the potential......snip~

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...n-a-trump-win/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/)

[Bethere]

Uh oh.....this isn't good the Demos and the leftness.



Forget what the polls and pundits are saying, Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, predicts Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth.

Norpoth, who has accurately predicted the last five presidential elections, uses two models. The first, he told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, is the primary model, which tracks how the candidates are performing, and “it usually turns out the candidate who does better in his party's primaries or her party’s primaries beats the other guy who does less well.”

He used the primary races in South Carolina and New Hampshire for the 2016 election, where Trump won and did better than Clinton did in the Democratic race.

The second model, he explains, is called the Swing of the Pendulum, which is the tendency for a change after two terms of a party being in the White House. This, of course, gives the prediction that a Republican will win in 2016.

Norpoth is so convinced by his models that he’s putting his money where his mouth is. He bought shares in the Republican candidate in the Iowa Electronic Markets a long time ago and he’s sticking with it, he said......snip~

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbar...l-win-n2236279

The only one I've ever missed was 2000, where I had Gore.

But I've never missed the popular vote.

Last time? I nailed it. 2 full years in advance.

I have witnesses.

[MMC]

The only one I've ever missed was 2000, where I had Gore.

But I've never missed the popular vote.

Last time? I nailed it. 2 full years in advance.

I have witnesses.

Don't forget there are two Economic Models that haven't been wrong and are saying Trump will win it. That's besides these Professors.

[del]

lol

[midcan5]

You all remember the Romney landslide, right? Personally for me it is hard to imagine a draft dodger, liar, sexual predator, tax dodger, bankrupt business person, fake, and totally off the wall person with the attention span of a fly, the conversation skill of four year old, as our president. I am hoping Americans aren't that stupid.

[Subdermal]

The only one I've ever missed was 2000, where I had Gore.

But I've never missed the popular vote.

Last time? I nailed it. 2 full years in advance.

I have witnesses.

You have zero credibility.

[Peter1469]

Lots of Americas seem to want to vote for someone who will be impeached for criminal actions while Sec State.

[MMC]

Looks like the Professors were Right. Has anyone seen Nate Silver.....Yet? :laugh:

[resister]

The only one I've ever missed was 2000, where I had Gore.

But I've never missed the popular vote.

Last time? I nailed it. 2 full years in advance.

I have witnesses.
Hows that going?....LOL....LOL...:laugh:

[resister]

lol
How bout that LOL....DEL?