The Official Polly Prediction

[IMPress Polly]

Alrighty, I pride myself on the accuracy of my official predictions every election cycle and promised to make one shortly before election day, so here it is:

Presidential Race

Clinton states

1. Vermont
2. Massachusetts
3. Connecticut
4. Rhode Island
5. Maine
6. New York
7. New Jersey 8. Pennsylvania
9. Delaware
10. Maryland
11. Virginia
12. North Carolina
13. Michigan
14. Illinois
15. Wisconsin
16. Minnesota
17. New Mexico
18. Colorado
19. California
20. Oregon
21. Washington
22. Hawaii
(Plus Washington DC)

Trump states

1. North Dakota
2. South Dakota
3. Nebraska
4. Kansas
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Louisiana
8. Arkansas
9. Missouri
10. Mississippi
11. Alabama
12. Tennessee
13. Florida
14. Georgia
15. South Carolina
16. West Virginia
17. Kentucky
18. Indiana
19. Ohio
20. Iowa
21. New Hampshire
22. Arizona
23. Wyoming
24. Utah
25. Idaho
26. Nevada
27. Montana
28. Alaska

Electoral votes: 284 for Clinton, 254 for Trump. Clinton wins, though by a tad less than Obama did in 2012. Obama carried New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada in 2012, but Clinton will not. However, Clinton will carry North Carolina this year where Obama did not in 2012 (though he did in 2008).

Nuance: My current OFFICIAL projection of the results in the presidential race is this: Trump will carry five swing states that Obama carried in 2012: New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada. Clinton, however, may carry North Carolina, which Romney won in 2012. If she does, the final electoral balance will be 284 Clinton, 254 Trump. If she doesn't though -- if Trump carries North Carolina like Romney did in 2012 (we're banking on the African American vote here, which appears to be down!) -- then we're looking at an electoral tie: 269 each...in which case, the Republican-controlled Senate will decide the outcome.

House of Representatives

Democrats net 7 additional seats. (Lose 1, gain 8.)
End partisan balance: 242 Republicans, 193 Democrats.

Senate

Democrats gain 3 additional seats -- Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin -- thus leaving the Senate under Republican control.
End partisan balance: 50 Republicans. 49 Democrats (including 2 independents who caucus with Democrats).


State Governorships


No change in the effective political balance. Republicans will pick up one additional governorship in West Virginia, while the Democrats pick up the governor's seat in North Carolina.


End partisan balance: 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats

[Green Arrow]

I'll endorse this one.

[Chris]

Good a guess as any.

[Ethereal]

As long as Republicans control the House, they retain effective control over the entire government since the House has the power of the purse.

The problem is that the Republicans will not actually use this power in any meaningful way because they love big government just as much as the Democrats do.

The only difference is that their version of big government concentrates more on throwing people into prisons and dropping bombs on brown people.

The state and local levels are where real political change has the best chance of succeeding. Do not look to Washington DC for solutions. Look around you instead.

[stephen50right]

12. North Carolina - is incorrect

Other than that, you may turn out to be right.

Trump is going to need some more, and it looks like a long shot at this point.

[Green Arrow]

12. North Carolina - is incorrect

Other than that, you may turn out to be right.

Trump is going to need some more, and it looks like a long shot at this point.

Incorrect, really? They've already counted the votes in North Carolina?

[IMPress Polly]

Okay, last-minute revision! I'm going to change my prediction for two of the contests in the presidential race to account for early voting trends: I'm now predicting that Nevada will actually go for Hillary Clinton and North Carolina for Donald Trump. So for the presidential race, that leaves us with an electoral balance of 274 for Clinton and 264 for Trump. Everything else about the OP prediction remains the same. We'll see if I'm right tomorrow!

[Green Arrow]

I took the day off so I could follow the results.

Either way I'm not expecting to be happy with the results unless Stein and Johnson (or, hell, I'll settle for one or the other) get to at least 5% each.

[IMPress Polly]

*raises right hand* I swear on my life that I will never again question the L.A. Times' polling models!

[Peter1469]

They tried something new.

[Green Arrow]

*raises right hand* I swear on my life that I will never again question the L.A. Times' polling models!

Just do what I did. Look on the bright side - just about everyone else got it wrong, too :tongue:

[Private Pickle]

Well this is awkward!

[The Xl]

I didn't call a Trump blowout, but I definitely knew the polls were generally nonsensical.

[FindersKeepers]

*raises right hand* I swear on my life that I will never again question the L.A. Times' polling models!

You're in good company. Although I voted for Trump, I didn't expect him to win. Not in my wildest dreams. I went to be early election night so I got a huge surprise the next morning.

And, I'm not thrilled that he won, either. I'm just glad Hillary didn't win.

It's going to be a long and hard four years.

[IMPress Polly]

It wasn't a "blowout". He lost the popular vote, but claims a "mandate."

[AeonPax]

`
This is why I don't make predictions, least ways, not without tarot cards.

[Chris]

I hear tell cleromancy works.