pjohns
10-20-2012, 12:57 AM
For those diehard Nate Silver fans out there--and there usually are some--the man is now on record: He is animated by a very thinly veiled disdain for the Gallup organization.
Or, as Mr. Silver has just put it, in The New York Times:
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.
However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. ...
The Gallup poll seems to have an outsize influence on the subjective perception of where the presidential race stands, however — especially when the poll seems to diverge from the consensus.
This simply isn’t rational, in my view. Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly.
Here is the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/us/politics/in-national-polling-its-gallup-vs-the-rest.html?_r=1&
In the end, perhaps Mr. Silver will be exonerated.
Perhaps President Obama will win re-election, and the Gallup organization will have egg all over its collective face.
Perhaps.
We shall see.
Anyway, it is well to have this on the record now...
Or, as Mr. Silver has just put it, in The New York Times:
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.
However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. ...
The Gallup poll seems to have an outsize influence on the subjective perception of where the presidential race stands, however — especially when the poll seems to diverge from the consensus.
This simply isn’t rational, in my view. Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly.
Here is the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/us/politics/in-national-polling-its-gallup-vs-the-rest.html?_r=1&
In the end, perhaps Mr. Silver will be exonerated.
Perhaps President Obama will win re-election, and the Gallup organization will have egg all over its collective face.
Perhaps.
We shall see.
Anyway, it is well to have this on the record now...