IMPress Polly
10-23-2012, 02:24 PM
The following is a dialogue that Matt and I had on this subject today. I have his permission to share the relevant portion of it.
(Matt was at work whilst we were having this chat, so he didn't get many chances to chime in and respond. That's why I characterize this as essentially my assessment.)
So what did you think of last night's debate?(You KNEW that subject would come up, right?
)
1:34 PM Matthew: I thought it was funny. Lots of chest-thumping and them trying to out-like Isreal more than the other guy. :p
1:35 PM me: I really think we should just sell our military off to Israel and get it over with.
1:36 PM No talk of two-state solutions there.
However, there was one interesting nuance I noted.
While Romney referred to Israel as "our greatest ally in the Middle East", Obama referred to Israel as "one of our most important allies" in the region.
1:37 PM But last night really wasn't much of a debate. They basically agreed on everything related to foreign policy.
I noticed that Romney even stepped away from his earlier statements about rescinding the withdrawal timetable concerning Afghanistan.
1:39 PM Rest assured though there ARE real differences between the levels at which the respective candidates would fund the military. Obama is proposing the status quo, while Romney wants a roughly 50% increase in military spending.
1:41 PM Matthew: With no ideas on how to pay for it, since he can't.
1:43 PM me: I hear you.
But aside from general disgust, did you feel there was a "winner" and does it matter?
1:45 PM (I did learn one thing last night: I hadn't previously been away or Romney's plans to abolish Medicaid (the government subsidy of health care to the poor) as a federal program and "turn it over to the states".
)
1:46 PM Matthew: Obama won, but it doesn't really.matter.
1:47 PM me: I agree 100% with that assessment.
1:48 PM Up to early October, the momentum was on the president's side. The first debate reversed the momentum though, and ever since it has consistently been with team Romney.
1:49 PM The subsequent three debates succeeded in the sense of slowing down the bleeding, but there hasn't been a clear enough all-around "win" for team Obama to reverse the momentum a second time.
1:50 PM The bottom line here is that time is not our friend. Time is against us. The long-term trend favors Romney. You can see it in these snap polls when debate viewers say Obama won (now in multiple debates), but that it doesn't change how they plan to vote.
So, from a strategic standpoint, we need to get people to vote right now, ASAP, today if possible.
Before they have a chance to get suckered into the Romney camp.
1:51 PM Early voting is our friend.
November 6th is the day of evil. That's when all the Romney voters will vote.
1:52 PM Now let me also say though that Ohio and Iowa are what count at this point.
And Obama is still likely to win in those states.
Without both of those states, Romney has no path to the magic 270 electoral votes.
1:53 PM So all in all I continue to maintain my revised prediction I made the day after the first debate: that Obama has a 60% chance of winning.
But it will be close.
How close? Remember the 2000 election? It could be that close.
Every vote counts, especially in Ohio.
1:54 PM With early voting, Iowa is looking pretty secure for the president. More than one-third of Iowans have already voted, and two-thirds of those cast an Obama ballot.
1:55 PM Obama also has more than 60% of the votes cast so far in Ohio, though fewer have been cast there proportionally speaking.
Florida will probably go for Romney though.
1:56 PM Obama should probably just remove a lot of the ads and campaign trips and so forth from Florida and "redistribute" the difference to Ohio.
He can afford to lose Florida, but he can't afford to lose both Florida and Ohio.
I can't give a detailed prediction yet and won't until the week before the election.
1:57 PM But that's the general idea at this point, I believe.
Any thoughts? Disagree?
2:00 PM Matthew: Sorry, busy.
2:01 PM me: Okay well I've gotta go now anyway. But I can chat tomorrow (same time frame).
I don't think you have work tomorrow, so I hope think that might work out nicely.
2:02 PM Matthew: I think you're probably right. You usually are. ;)
2:03 PM me: :D
Just giving an opinion.
(As you can sense, foreign policy is the area I most disagree with the president on.)
(Matt was at work whilst we were having this chat, so he didn't get many chances to chime in and respond. That's why I characterize this as essentially my assessment.)
So what did you think of last night's debate?(You KNEW that subject would come up, right?
)
1:34 PM Matthew: I thought it was funny. Lots of chest-thumping and them trying to out-like Isreal more than the other guy. :p
1:35 PM me: I really think we should just sell our military off to Israel and get it over with.
1:36 PM No talk of two-state solutions there.
However, there was one interesting nuance I noted.
While Romney referred to Israel as "our greatest ally in the Middle East", Obama referred to Israel as "one of our most important allies" in the region.
1:37 PM But last night really wasn't much of a debate. They basically agreed on everything related to foreign policy.
I noticed that Romney even stepped away from his earlier statements about rescinding the withdrawal timetable concerning Afghanistan.
1:39 PM Rest assured though there ARE real differences between the levels at which the respective candidates would fund the military. Obama is proposing the status quo, while Romney wants a roughly 50% increase in military spending.
1:41 PM Matthew: With no ideas on how to pay for it, since he can't.
1:43 PM me: I hear you.
But aside from general disgust, did you feel there was a "winner" and does it matter?
1:45 PM (I did learn one thing last night: I hadn't previously been away or Romney's plans to abolish Medicaid (the government subsidy of health care to the poor) as a federal program and "turn it over to the states".
)
1:46 PM Matthew: Obama won, but it doesn't really.matter.
1:47 PM me: I agree 100% with that assessment.
1:48 PM Up to early October, the momentum was on the president's side. The first debate reversed the momentum though, and ever since it has consistently been with team Romney.
1:49 PM The subsequent three debates succeeded in the sense of slowing down the bleeding, but there hasn't been a clear enough all-around "win" for team Obama to reverse the momentum a second time.
1:50 PM The bottom line here is that time is not our friend. Time is against us. The long-term trend favors Romney. You can see it in these snap polls when debate viewers say Obama won (now in multiple debates), but that it doesn't change how they plan to vote.
So, from a strategic standpoint, we need to get people to vote right now, ASAP, today if possible.
Before they have a chance to get suckered into the Romney camp.
1:51 PM Early voting is our friend.
November 6th is the day of evil. That's when all the Romney voters will vote.
1:52 PM Now let me also say though that Ohio and Iowa are what count at this point.
And Obama is still likely to win in those states.
Without both of those states, Romney has no path to the magic 270 electoral votes.
1:53 PM So all in all I continue to maintain my revised prediction I made the day after the first debate: that Obama has a 60% chance of winning.
But it will be close.
How close? Remember the 2000 election? It could be that close.
Every vote counts, especially in Ohio.
1:54 PM With early voting, Iowa is looking pretty secure for the president. More than one-third of Iowans have already voted, and two-thirds of those cast an Obama ballot.
1:55 PM Obama also has more than 60% of the votes cast so far in Ohio, though fewer have been cast there proportionally speaking.
Florida will probably go for Romney though.
1:56 PM Obama should probably just remove a lot of the ads and campaign trips and so forth from Florida and "redistribute" the difference to Ohio.
He can afford to lose Florida, but he can't afford to lose both Florida and Ohio.
I can't give a detailed prediction yet and won't until the week before the election.
1:57 PM But that's the general idea at this point, I believe.
Any thoughts? Disagree?
2:00 PM Matthew: Sorry, busy.
2:01 PM me: Okay well I've gotta go now anyway. But I can chat tomorrow (same time frame).
I don't think you have work tomorrow, so I hope think that might work out nicely.
2:02 PM Matthew: I think you're probably right. You usually are. ;)
2:03 PM me: :D
Just giving an opinion.
(As you can sense, foreign policy is the area I most disagree with the president on.)