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BooHoo
10-29-2012, 03:35 AM
I was watching Fox news earlier. They were saying that Obama would probably win with electoral votes if the election were held today. Can one week really make a big difference?

I pray there is more new about Benghazi painting Obama in a negative light.

I hope Romney doesn't win on popular votes and not on electoral come election day. That would really suck!!

Ooops typo *concerned

RollingWave
10-29-2012, 05:45 AM
Yeah, looking at the polls now there is a pretty significant chance of Romney winning the popular vote but loses the EC. RCP and Polltracker both shows exactly that happening, RCP has Romney winning the Popular vote by 1% but loses the EC by a pretty considerable 42 votes (FWIW, that's more than Kerry and Gore's losing margin ) Poll Tracker also show the same thing but has Romney losing by EVEN MORE EC (it has Obama with a tiny lead in Florida). meanwhile, 538 has Obama with a tiny popular vote lead and abotu the same EC lead as Polltracker.

Who your supporting aside, given that the last time this happened it got pretty ugly, and politics in the US have only gotten much more partisan since, it seems that both side would REALLY hope that this doesn't happen this time around.

Mainecoons
10-29-2012, 08:04 AM
If at the end of this week, it looks like Obama is going to stay in, go short on the S&P. If you think all those stories about how business views Obama and the damage Obamacare is going to do to a number of major employers (and their employees who are going to be turned into part timers) you are kidding yourself.

Obama is bad for employment and jobs. Period.

Peter1469
10-29-2012, 09:26 AM
Romney has the momentum. A week will make a big difference.

Cigar
10-29-2012, 10:43 AM
If at the end of this week, it looks like Obama is going to stay in, go short on the S&P. If you think all those stories about how business views Obama and the damage Obamacare is going to do to a number of major employers (and their employees who are going to be turned into part timers) you are kidding yourself.

Obama is bad for employment and jobs. Period.

Clearly the numbers prove that ...

BTW ... any comment on the "Just say NO" campaign for the last 4 years.

Deadwood
10-29-2012, 10:56 AM
Romney has the momentum. A week will make a big difference.

Call me a pessimist, but I doubt it will be enough to win the electoral votes.

That leaves me conflicted. It means the US will decline economically, more Americans will die in terrorist attacks and Afghanistan and Gitmo will go on and on.

The economic decline, tough, will over time be good for Canada. The flow of the brightest and the best will increase northward, investment by US firms in the Canadian economy where universal health care is a bonus and the 15% business tax rate will be very attractive to small and medium sized businesses.

I doubt the top wage earners will be affected, but if they are, Canadian banks and the country's solid investment climate becomes more attractive to having to pay more in total sum.

Obama does not understand economics. He has proven himself to be an isolationist and actually believes HE saved GM.

Good luck....

birddog
10-29-2012, 11:02 AM
With the challenger Romney essentially in a dead heat at this stage of the game, he will win the presidency. History goes against the incumbentwhen it's this way.

Cigar
10-29-2012, 11:06 AM
http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=I.4635752246935762&pid=1.7&w=144&h=146&c=7&rs=1

Larry Dickman
10-29-2012, 11:06 AM
It's in FOX News' best interest to keep people worried. Show me please, in what states OhBama has 50%. He may, in California and Hawaii, but not in one single swing state. People uncertain NOW are sure as hell not going to vote for the guy they already know they can't really trust to fix anything.

Romney is going to win both popular vote and by the EC. You nay-sayers won't drag this fella down.

coolwalker
10-29-2012, 11:13 AM
With the challenger Romney essentially in a dead heat at this stage of the game, he will win the presidency. History goes against the incumbentwhen it's this way.

I agree with the historical content of your statement, however we have never before had an avowed Marxist as the sitting president. Marxists do whatever they wish whenever they wish. I trust Obama as much as I trust a starving lion with my children.

birddog
10-29-2012, 11:59 AM
It's in FOX News' best interest to keep people worried. Show me please, in what states OhBama has 50%. He may, in California and Hawaii, but not in one single swing state. People uncertain NOW are sure as hell not going to vote for the guy they already know they can't really trust to fix anything.

Romney is going to win both popular vote and by the EC. You nay-sayers won't drag this fella down.

You make very good points. Brit Hume is one who comes to mind.

birddog
10-29-2012, 11:59 AM
I agree with the historical content of your statement, however we have never before had an avowed Marxist as the sitting president. Marxists do whatever they wish whenever they wish. I trust Obama as much as I trust a starving lion with my children.

You make a good point also. It ain't over til it's over!

Deadwood
10-29-2012, 12:38 PM
It's always a fine line. People want to believe they are voting for a winner and so stressing polls as being in the lead are helpful in that regard.

However, when the support is soft, and not likely to turn out if they think it's a forgone conclusion, instilling fear in the support base will help drive that vote.

Because of the difficulty of polsters getting responders, they tend to go back to the same well again and again. That is a prime opportunity to to drive the results in that regard as, Romney supporters who are being polled repeatedly may give misleading answers.

Always look at the margin of error in a poll. If its over 3% its useless and many of them in this election have been. It is below 2% pay attention; with a 2% MOE and a five per cent lead, it can be said it's really a statistical dead heat. And that's where a lot of the polls stand right now.

I am making no predictions, just gut based guesses.

LabCat
11-01-2012, 05:33 PM
Agreed. These are untested waters. A complicit media combined with a seemingly endless pool of morally bankrupt drones frighten the hell out of me.

Trinnity
11-01-2012, 05:41 PM
Agreed. These are untested waters. A complicit media combined with a seemingly endless pool of morally bankrupt drones frighten the hell out of me.It should. The public education abandoned subject that were vital. They include:

Government
Economics
Pennmanship
History (to some extent)
Western Civ

Kids are ignorant of what the Constitution, Bill of Rights, and Liberty mean. And the dumbing down has been going on for decades. Home schooling is not all it's made out to be either. I know of one kid whose home schooling consists of earning boy scout badges. These kids are often isolated and lacking in a real education. So what to do? Parents - get involved. Demand a better curriculum.