MMC
03-16-2017, 11:42 AM
Oh my, even with Repubs against it.
I'd call this poll a narrative-buster (https://morningconsult.com/2017/03/15/poll-republican-plan-encourage-health-coverage-unpopular-voters/) (despite the headline), but I should place a meaningful caveat on the table from the get-go: This survey was in the field after the legislation was released, but before the CBO score unleashed a bundle of ugly (and extremely misleading) headlines (https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/841624788745539584) about the bill's potential impact on coverage rates. If you missed my full breakdown of the data yesterday, click through (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2017/03/15/thoughts-on-the-cbo-score-and-where-republicans-go-from-here-n2298776) for details. So I'd imagine that these numbers could take a PR hit as that narrative takes root, especially if Republicans are too busy sniping at each other to counter media-abetted attacks from the Left. Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs within this survey, which was taken as Democrats were telling everyone who would listen that the bill was a mean-spirited dumpster fire that would cancel coverage and kill people. Interestingly, voters are generally positive (https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170306_topline_Politico_v3_AG.pdf) about the proposal, despite agreeing with the premises of several core Democratic attacks. Let's dive into some numbers:
1) Overall, 46 percent of respondents favor the GOPCare plan, with just over one-third opposed. By a 20-point margin, uninsured Americans support the bill.
(2) A narrow plurality (48 percent) disapproves of Obamacare, while a majority (55 percent) wants the law partially or fully repealed. Just 13 percent of Americans want Obamacare kept as-is, with less than a quarter favoring expanding the failing law.
(3) Republicans are trusted more than Democrats on almost every major issue polled, including the economy (+17), jobs (+18), immigration (+15), healthcare (+4), and energy (+2). Democrats have an advantage on the environment (+16). The parties are tied on education.
4) Respondents are roughly evenly split on whether the Republican plan will improve the US healthcare system and the quality of care, with a slight edge in favor of the bill. Voters are skeptical that the legislation would lower costs (a key point for Republicans to deliver on), and a clear plurality correctly anticipates that the law would reduce the ranks of the insured. Some of the Left's attacks were landing pre-CBO score, yet the proposal was above water by 11 points in this survey.
(5) In a significant break from the past eight years, the public splits closely on whether the country is headed in the right or wrong direction. A majority still says the latter, but the breakdown is an improved (46/54). President Trump is polarizing, with nearly one-third of Americans strongly approving and strongly disapproving of his performance in office. Including leaners, Trump's job approval is a relatively robust 52 percent; 44 percent disapprove. Paul Ryan is the Congressional leader viewed most favorably by voters (+0), with Sen. Chuck Schumer scoring the lowest of the 'big four' (-24).
UPDATE - The latest Fox News poll (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/03/15/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-slips-even-as-more-feel-economy-improving.html) contains much worse news for the GOP, with a majority opposing the bill. Roughly one-fifth of that opposition comes from Republicans, many of whom believe the plan doesn't do enough to uproot the existing law. Voters are split on Obamacare, with a plurality believing that it will collapse on its own if nothing is done. Trump's job approval is almost the opposite of the Politico poll, at (43/51). One big reason these polls are so far apart? The one described above has a partisan sample of R+3. Fox News' numbers are from a D+9 sample. .....snip~
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2017/03/16/politico-poll-plurality-supports-gop-healthcare-plan-trump-approval-hits-52-percent-n2299338
I'd call this poll a narrative-buster (https://morningconsult.com/2017/03/15/poll-republican-plan-encourage-health-coverage-unpopular-voters/) (despite the headline), but I should place a meaningful caveat on the table from the get-go: This survey was in the field after the legislation was released, but before the CBO score unleashed a bundle of ugly (and extremely misleading) headlines (https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/841624788745539584) about the bill's potential impact on coverage rates. If you missed my full breakdown of the data yesterday, click through (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2017/03/15/thoughts-on-the-cbo-score-and-where-republicans-go-from-here-n2298776) for details. So I'd imagine that these numbers could take a PR hit as that narrative takes root, especially if Republicans are too busy sniping at each other to counter media-abetted attacks from the Left. Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs within this survey, which was taken as Democrats were telling everyone who would listen that the bill was a mean-spirited dumpster fire that would cancel coverage and kill people. Interestingly, voters are generally positive (https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170306_topline_Politico_v3_AG.pdf) about the proposal, despite agreeing with the premises of several core Democratic attacks. Let's dive into some numbers:
1) Overall, 46 percent of respondents favor the GOPCare plan, with just over one-third opposed. By a 20-point margin, uninsured Americans support the bill.
(2) A narrow plurality (48 percent) disapproves of Obamacare, while a majority (55 percent) wants the law partially or fully repealed. Just 13 percent of Americans want Obamacare kept as-is, with less than a quarter favoring expanding the failing law.
(3) Republicans are trusted more than Democrats on almost every major issue polled, including the economy (+17), jobs (+18), immigration (+15), healthcare (+4), and energy (+2). Democrats have an advantage on the environment (+16). The parties are tied on education.
4) Respondents are roughly evenly split on whether the Republican plan will improve the US healthcare system and the quality of care, with a slight edge in favor of the bill. Voters are skeptical that the legislation would lower costs (a key point for Republicans to deliver on), and a clear plurality correctly anticipates that the law would reduce the ranks of the insured. Some of the Left's attacks were landing pre-CBO score, yet the proposal was above water by 11 points in this survey.
(5) In a significant break from the past eight years, the public splits closely on whether the country is headed in the right or wrong direction. A majority still says the latter, but the breakdown is an improved (46/54). President Trump is polarizing, with nearly one-third of Americans strongly approving and strongly disapproving of his performance in office. Including leaners, Trump's job approval is a relatively robust 52 percent; 44 percent disapprove. Paul Ryan is the Congressional leader viewed most favorably by voters (+0), with Sen. Chuck Schumer scoring the lowest of the 'big four' (-24).
UPDATE - The latest Fox News poll (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/03/15/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-slips-even-as-more-feel-economy-improving.html) contains much worse news for the GOP, with a majority opposing the bill. Roughly one-fifth of that opposition comes from Republicans, many of whom believe the plan doesn't do enough to uproot the existing law. Voters are split on Obamacare, with a plurality believing that it will collapse on its own if nothing is done. Trump's job approval is almost the opposite of the Politico poll, at (43/51). One big reason these polls are so far apart? The one described above has a partisan sample of R+3. Fox News' numbers are from a D+9 sample. .....snip~
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2017/03/16/politico-poll-plurality-supports-gop-healthcare-plan-trump-approval-hits-52-percent-n2299338