wazi99
10-31-2012, 04:53 PM
It hasn't gotten too much attention outside of talk radio, but if accurate, Gallup's study of early voters neutralizes one of the Obama campaign's best road-to-victory talking points. As it conducted tracking polls (which have been paused for now), Gallup asked voters whether they'd cast ballots or intended to before election day. The early voters broke 52-46 for Mitt Romney. The dawdling voters who would vote before election day were tied, 49-49. The voters waiting for November 6 broke for Romney, again, by a 6-point margin.
This would be easy to explain away if Obama had lagged in 2008's early vote. After all, this study includes votes in Georgia and Texas and other places that have broken away from Obama. But... in 2008, Obama was winning this vote. An identical Gallup study taken around the same time gave Obama a 53-43 lead with early voters and a 50-44 lead on voters who would wait for election day. I've asked the Obama campaign to explain what Gallup might be missing, and will update with any response, but what response would explain this?
Read more here: http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/30/this_early_vote_calculation_from_gallup_looks_terr ible_for_obama.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar (http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/30/this_early_vote_calculation_from_gallup_looks_terr ible_for_obama.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar)
Its not looking good for Obama. I don't think his last ditch effort to look presidential will work. From what I'm seeing Romney will win big next Tuesday. Undecided voters are breaking heavily for Romney. There is a growing enthusiasm gap between democrats and republicans even in polls that have Obama up by a few points. Polls in states like Michigan and Wisconsin have not been this close this late since Regan won them in a historic land slide.
This would be easy to explain away if Obama had lagged in 2008's early vote. After all, this study includes votes in Georgia and Texas and other places that have broken away from Obama. But... in 2008, Obama was winning this vote. An identical Gallup study taken around the same time gave Obama a 53-43 lead with early voters and a 50-44 lead on voters who would wait for election day. I've asked the Obama campaign to explain what Gallup might be missing, and will update with any response, but what response would explain this?
Read more here: http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/30/this_early_vote_calculation_from_gallup_looks_terr ible_for_obama.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar (http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/30/this_early_vote_calculation_from_gallup_looks_terr ible_for_obama.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar)
Its not looking good for Obama. I don't think his last ditch effort to look presidential will work. From what I'm seeing Romney will win big next Tuesday. Undecided voters are breaking heavily for Romney. There is a growing enthusiasm gap between democrats and republicans even in polls that have Obama up by a few points. Polls in states like Michigan and Wisconsin have not been this close this late since Regan won them in a historic land slide.