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View Full Version : This Early Vote Calculation from Gallup Looks Terrible for Obama



wazi99
10-31-2012, 04:53 PM
It hasn't gotten too much attention outside of talk radio, but if accurate, Gallup's study of early voters neutralizes one of the Obama campaign's best road-to-victory talking points. As it conducted tracking polls (which have been paused for now), Gallup asked voters whether they'd cast ballots or intended to before election day. The early voters broke 52-46 for Mitt Romney. The dawdling voters who would vote before election day were tied, 49-49. The voters waiting for November 6 broke for Romney, again, by a 6-point margin.

This would be easy to explain away if Obama had lagged in 2008's early vote. After all, this study includes votes in Georgia and Texas and other places that have broken away from Obama. But... in 2008, Obama was winning this vote. An identical Gallup study taken around the same time gave Obama a 53-43 lead with early voters and a 50-44 lead on voters who would wait for election day. I've asked the Obama campaign to explain what Gallup might be missing, and will update with any response, but what response would explain this?

Read more here: http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/30/this_early_vote_calculation_from_gallup_looks_terr ible_for_obama.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar (http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/30/this_early_vote_calculation_from_gallup_looks_terr ible_for_obama.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar)

Its not looking good for Obama. I don't think his last ditch effort to look presidential will work. From what I'm seeing Romney will win big next Tuesday. Undecided voters are breaking heavily for Romney. There is a growing enthusiasm gap between democrats and republicans even in polls that have Obama up by a few points. Polls in states like Michigan and Wisconsin have not been this close this late since Regan won them in a historic land slide.

Peter1469
10-31-2012, 04:58 PM
Aren't the early votes supposed to go D? I guess America is fed up.

Trinnity
10-31-2012, 05:01 PM
Undecided voters are breaking heavily for Romney. As Dick Morris said they always do statistically (undecided breaks for the challenger), and would this time too.

wazi99
10-31-2012, 05:03 PM
It dose seam people are breaking to Romney. We wont know for sure but what we can say is turn out is down in traditionally democratic areas and up in traditionally republican areas.

Calypso Jones
10-31-2012, 05:30 PM
What seemed to be pretty standard in American political stats and prognostications is no longer written in stone. Nothing is safe,, nothing is sacred. Everything is being turned on its head.

garyo
10-31-2012, 05:33 PM
I hope this is going to be the pattern and as Peter said people are fed up.

wazi99
10-31-2012, 05:34 PM
Calypso Jones I could not agree more. No one can ever again say debates do not matter. How many times have we heard that who South Carolina picks will be the republican candidate. Now its even starting to look like if Romney losses Ohio (I think he will win it) he could still win the election.

Captain Obvious
10-31-2012, 05:35 PM
Welcome to the forum, wazi.

wazi99
10-31-2012, 05:38 PM
Thanks Captain Obvious.

garyo
10-31-2012, 05:43 PM
Yes, welcome.

Calypso Jones
10-31-2012, 07:09 PM
Republicans have won every November 6 election since 1860. just sayin' for the benefit of libs. :wink:

Calypso Jones
10-31-2012, 10:52 PM
Dem mayor says they're losing Wisconsin.

coolwalker
11-01-2012, 11:28 AM
I was one of millions last night that got a call from some Virginia college and the poll from those calls show Virginia dead-even as of last night/this morning. Romney has pulled up (I believe) 8 points from 2 months ago...it ain't over yet either...a huge carrier is coming in and will be here for the election...10,000 sailors and marines