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IMPress Polly
11-02-2012, 02:46 PM
Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:

First prediction (mid-September) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/5957-2012-U-S-Election-Predictions)

Second prediction (end of September) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/6714-Updated-U-S-Election-Predictions)

Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.

(Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

Definite Obama states:

1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
15. New Mexico
16. Nevada
17. Washington
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Hawaii

Likely Obama states:

21. New Hampshire
22. Wisconsin
23. Iowa

Definite Romney states:

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. West Virgina
6. Kentucky
7. Tennessee
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Alabama
11. Mississippi
12. Missouri
13. Arkansas
14. Louisiana
15. North Dakota
16. South Dakota
17. Nebraska
18. Kansas
19. Oklahoma
20. Texas
21. Montana
22. Wyoming
23. Utah
24. Arizona
25. Idaho
26. Alaska

Likely Romney states:

27. Colorado


According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:

Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm back up to 85% certain on this.)
Romney: 257


THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Current Situation:

Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5

My Prediction: Democrats experience a net gain of 5 seats.

FINAL BALANCE:

237 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident in this basic outcome.)
198 Democrats.

Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.


THE SENATE:

Current Scenario:

51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

My Prediction:

Stays in the Democratic Camp:

1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Wisconsin
15. Minnesota
16. Missouri
17. New Mexico
18. Washington
19. California
20. Hawaii

Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:

21. Massachusetts
22. Maine
23. Indiana

Stays Republican:

1. Tennessee
2. Mississippi
3. Texas
4. Wyoming
5. Utah
6. Arizona
7. Nevada

Switches from Democratic to Republican:

8. North Dakota
9. Nebraska
10. Montana

Prediction of the End Result:
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif

Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident in that basic outcome.)
Republicans: 47
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.











STATE GOVERNORSHIPS

Current balance of state governorships:

29 Republicans
20 Democrats

11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Stays Democratic

1. Vermont
2. Delaware
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. Washington

Stays Republican

1. Indiana
2. North Dakota
3. Utah

Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:

Likely:

1. North Carolina
2. Montana

Possibly:

3. New Hampshire

In other words, Republicans will probably pick up either 2 or 3 governorships on balance.

FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

32 or 33 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that this will be the basic outcome.)

17 or 18 Democratic governors


SUMMARY:

Whereas the last three election cycles were anti-incumbent cycles, this one, by contrast, is essentially a status quo cycle, indicating that people are at least basically contented...at least when they compare the status quo to the alternatives that they've been presented with. That is why, for example, Republican Governor John Kaisich is popular in Ohio even while Democratic President Barack Obama Obama is pretty much certain to carry the state. That is why, likewise, voters in Wisconsin opted to keep Walker earlier this year and appear about to also vote to keep Obama in a few days. The consistency there is the status quo. i.e. This election will probably make only a minimal difference in the grand scheme of things. Prepare for at least two more years characterized by more of the same.

Concerning the presidential race, I'm being generous in giving Romney Colorado considering that Obama has actually been winning in most recent Colorado polls by a slim margin. I'm giving it to Romney based on the perceived 'directionality factor' that may not actually be in play anymore. So that's one state I may switch to the Obama camp on Monday, depending on how the weekend goes.

Concerning the Senate, my vote on North Dakota is somewhat iffy, though I suspect it will remain Republican. The competitors are running dead even in the polls in North Dakota, but, culturally speaking, in North Dakota a tie now will probably wind up going for the incumbent Republican. I'll monitor this over the weekend. There is a small chance I may change my prediction on that particular race as well.

Chris
11-02-2012, 02:50 PM
How do you calculate your certainty and confidence levels? Seat of the pants, or some formula?

Trinnity
11-02-2012, 02:50 PM
NOrth Carolina (which has a LARGE Black population) is a lock for Romney.

KC
11-02-2012, 02:51 PM
You've obviously put some thought into this. What makes you think Ohio will definitely fall in Obama's column?

Chris
11-02-2012, 02:53 PM
Do you think it all comes down to Ohio then?

Trinnity
11-02-2012, 02:54 PM
Thread bookmarked.

KC
11-02-2012, 03:02 PM
Do you think it all comes down to Ohio then?


It's certainly a pretty huge factor. I defer to the experts, and Ohio's importance can be observed based on how much money is being spent there.

http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/10/26/bbstates_custom-e0c6c871e5a185100d0be94271fba73c0a365998-s4.jpg

Larry Dickman
11-02-2012, 03:08 PM
I disagree for a very simple reason. What you have today, and for the past several weeks, is team Obama delivering their message to their base constituency. Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges. In the past couple days Obama is hitting Wisconsin. Wisconsin?

Romney is playing to moderates, and Obama is playing to class warfare piglets. That tells you all you need to know regarding the nominees' war camps and their internal polling.

I believe that when the dust settles the fight will not even be close. Polly, the one thing not one single pollster is seriously measuring is voter enthusiasm. The disgust WE have for Obama and what he has done, and what he will further do if re-elected, is incalculable. Turnout is going to be massive against Obama. Massive.

wazi99
11-02-2012, 03:10 PM
My final prediction is this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_ map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_5,NH_7,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,ME 2_3,RI_1,NY_1,PA_3,NJ_2,DE_1,MD_1,VA_7,WV_5,OH_7,I N_6,IL_1,CT_2,WI_7,NC_6,DC_1,MA_1,TN_5,AR_5,MO_6,G A_6,SC_6,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_5,N M_2,KS_5,NE_5,NE2_6,SD_6,ND_5,WY_5,MT_6,CO_7,ID_5, UT_5,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1

Romney 289
Obama 249

I move Wisconsin to Romney for many reasons. Undecided voters in Wisconsin are breaking heavily for Romney. Ryan is very popular there and is well known I think that will put Romney up in a tight race. Looking at the past elections of the last 2 years its clear Republicans have momentum in Wisconsin.

North Carolina, Florida, and Virgina I believe are locks for Romney.

Ohio will go Romney if even half of the early vote gap for him is true than he walks away with a +5 win over Obama. Undecided voters for Romney in many polls are double digests in Ohio.

Any bump Obama had after the hurricane is now going away as people are seeing reports of what is happening in New York next to video of Obama asking for votes.
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t1#/video/weather/2012/11/02/ac-intv-sandy-staten-island-molinaro.cnn
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/11/02/bridgeport-utility-workers-report-having-objects-thrown-at-them-by-residents/

Romney only needs to win Ohio or Wisconsin to win. I honestly think he will win both but only needs one.

Undecided voters historically break for the challenger.The public has had four years to get to know President Obama. Most if not all of the national polls have him at between 45% and 48% of the popular vote.

Chris
11-02-2012, 03:12 PM
It's certainly a pretty huge factor. I defer to the experts, and Ohio's importance can be observed based on how much money is being spent there.

http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/10/26/bbstates_custom-e0c6c871e5a185100d0be94271fba73c0a365998-s4.jpg

Purple.

http://i.snag.gy/9LR9C.jpg

But I wander off topic I suppose...sorry.

KC
11-02-2012, 03:14 PM
I disagree for a very simple reason. What you have today, and for the past several weeks, is team Obama delivering their message to their base constituency. Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges. In the past couple days Obama is hitting Wisconsin. Wisconsin?


Obama's been sending his Hollywood friends over to my UW school to plug for him regularly. We've now had Kal Penn, Olivia Munn, and apparently today Anne Hathaway.

Larry Dickman
11-02-2012, 03:17 PM
Obama's been sending his Hollywood friends over to my UW school to plug for him regularly. We've now had Kal Penn, Olivia Munn, and apparently today Anne Hathaway.

Even if Anne and Olivia offered me a three-way, they couldn't get me to vote for that brain dead piece of filth.

I'd certainly think long and hard on it. Long and hard...

But in the end (so to speak) I'd pass.

IMPress Polly
11-03-2012, 11:15 AM
Chris wrote:
How do you calculate your certainty and confidence levels? Seat of the pants, or some formula?

Both kind of. I take polling data and perceived trends and use them to discern what I feel is a trajectory in each case. So, in other words, my predictions are what they call educated guesses. But they're usually right.


Do you think it all comes down to Ohio then?

Not necessarily. We need to wait out the weekend to see more completely what impact the president's response to Hurricane Sandy will have upon the election process. As a hint at what my final revision will look like on Monday (and it's looking like I will need to make one, which will be posted here on this thread I guess), my projection in the OP was based largely on data that was up-to-date as of Wednesday. More recent data seems to suggest further movement in Obama's direction generally, at least in the swing states. In the latter case, Ohio wouldn't necessarily be vital to an Obama victory. It would still be vital to a Romney victory though. But like I said, I don't want to make a revision right now. We should really just wait out the weekend and see what happens by Monday.


KC wrote:
You've obviously put some thought into this. What makes you think Ohio will definitely fall in Obama's column?

He's not winning by huge margins in Ohio, but he's been pretty consistently winning there overall throughout the whole campaign season. Polling from Friday suggests that Obama may even be pulling away in Ohio at this late stage (i.e. winning now by 5 or 6 percent points rather than by 2 or 3). Additionally, early vote trends in Ohio suggest that the president already has a significant advantage locked in there. What that means is that, among likely voters, Romney really needs to be winning in Ohio polls by like 5 or 7 points by Monday in order to stand a realistic chance of carrying the state because he has to make up the difference that Obama already has locked in on Tuesday. What are the odds of that happening at this point? There is nothing to indicate that Romney will win Ohio on Tuesday (though he must).

Chris
11-03-2012, 11:17 AM
Thanks, no argument, your posts are thoughtful and I just wanted to hear more on your reasoning.

IMPress Polly
11-03-2012, 11:21 AM
Trinnity wrote:
NOrth Carolina (which has a LARGE Black population) is a lock for Romney.

Yes, and he's hardly going to get any of their votes. Romney's big advantage in North Carolina (and, while secure, it's not THAT big) is among white people, who form a considerable majority of the state's population.

Chris
11-03-2012, 02:27 PM
A little off topic but a neat interactive chart of 512 Paths to the White House (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-share).

Deadwood
11-03-2012, 02:59 PM
I disagree for a very simple reason. What you have today, and for the past several weeks, is team Obama delivering their message to their base constituency. Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges. In the past couple days Obama is hitting Wisconsin. Wisconsin?

Romney is playing to moderates, and Obama is playing to class warfare piglets. That tells you all you need to know regarding the nominees' war camps and their internal polling.

I believe that when the dust settles the fight will not even be close. Polly, the one thing not one single pollster is seriously measuring is voter enthusiasm. The disgust WE have for Obama and what he has done, and what he will further do if re-elected, is incalculable. Turnout is going to be massive against Obama. Massive.

The OP is clearly based on two week or more old thinking. And you are right. The message from Obama is 'get out the vote" to the point it is almost pleading if not downright begging. I have said from the beginning his support is soft and it is clear their polling numbers are showing that while they support him, a hang nail or a snow storm can keep them home.'

Romney meanwhile, is expanding his campaign, bringing heavy guns to bear on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with ads aimed at "undecided". Now, since the polled "undecided" is so tiny, clearly he is aiming his campaign on the "soft" Democrat support. That tells me their internal polling shows they have momentum in Ohio and probably have Florida by a nose, and they are sure that their support is going to show up.

It will NOT be the sweep the OP predicts, but a lot closer and, I would say the Democrats are very frightened about both the House and Senate.

KC
11-03-2012, 03:17 PM
A little off topic but a neat interactive chart of 512 Paths to the White House (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-share).

That's pretty cool.

Peter1469
11-04-2012, 05:59 AM
Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:

First prediction (mid-September) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/5957-2012-U-S-Election-Predictions)

Second prediction (end of September) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/6714-Updated-U-S-Election-Predictions)

Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.

(Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

Definite Obama states:

1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
15. New Mexico
16. Nevada
17. Washington
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Hawaii

Likely Obama states:

21. New Hampshire
22. Wisconsin
23. Iowa

Definite Romney states:

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. West Virgina
6. Kentucky
7. Tennessee
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Alabama
11. Mississippi
12. Missouri
13. Arkansas
14. Louisiana
15. North Dakota
16. South Dakota
17. Nebraska
18. Kansas
19. Oklahoma
20. Texas
21. Montana
22. Wyoming
23. Utah
24. Arizona
25. Idaho
26. Alaska

Likely Romney states:

27. Colorado


According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:

Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm back up to 85% certain on this.)
Romney: 257


THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Current Situation:

Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5

My Prediction: Democrats experience a net gain of 5 seats.

FINAL BALANCE:

237 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident in this basic outcome.)
198 Democrats.

Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.


THE SENATE:

Current Scenario:

51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

My Prediction:

Stays in the Democratic Camp:

1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Wisconsin
15. Minnesota
16. Missouri
17. New Mexico
18. Washington
19. California
20. Hawaii

Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:

21. Massachusetts
22. Maine
23. Indiana

Stays Republican:

1. Tennessee
2. Mississippi
3. Texas
4. Wyoming
5. Utah
6. Arizona
7. Nevada

Switches from Democratic to Republican:

8. North Dakota
9. Nebraska
10. Montana

Prediction of the End Result:
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif

Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident in that basic outcome.)
Republicans: 47
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.











STATE GOVERNORSHIPS

Current balance of state governorships:

29 Republicans
20 Democrats

11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Stays Democratic

1. Vermont
2. Delaware
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. Washington

Stays Republican

1. Indiana
2. North Dakota
3. Utah

Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:

Likely:

1. North Carolina
2. Montana

Possibly:

3. New Hampshire

In other words, Republicans will probably pick up either 2 or 3 governorships on balance.

FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

32 or 33 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that this will be the basic outcome.)

17 or 18 Democratic governors


SUMMARY:

Whereas the last three election cycles were anti-incumbent cycles, this one, by contrast, is essentially a status quo cycle, indicating that people are at least basically contented...at least when they compare the status quo to the alternatives that they've been presented with. That is why, for example, Republican Governor John Kaisich is popular in Ohio even while Democratic President Barack Obama Obama is pretty much certain to carry the state. That is why, likewise, voters in Wisconsin opted to keep Walker earlier this year and appear about to also vote to keep Obama in a few days. The consistency there is the status quo. i.e. This election will probably make only a minimal difference in the grand scheme of things. Prepare for at least two more years characterized by more of the same.

Concerning the presidential race, I'm being generous in giving Romney Colorado considering that Obama has actually been winning in most recent Colorado polls by a slim margin. I'm giving it to Romney based on the perceived 'directionality factor' that may not actually be in play anymore. So that's one state I may switch to the Obama camp on Monday, depending on how the weekend goes.

Concerning the Senate, my vote on North Dakota is somewhat iffy, though I suspect it will remain Republican. The competitors are running dead even in the polls in North Dakota, but, culturally speaking, in North Dakota a tie now will probably wind up going for the incumbent Republican. I'll monitor this over the weekend. There is a small chance I may change my prediction on that particular race as well.

Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.

As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.

I think that Romney will comfortably win.

If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.

birddog
11-04-2012, 10:20 AM
I do believe that the Rs have a good chance to get to 50 in the Senate, and when Romney/Ryan wins, that will be good.

Peter1469
11-04-2012, 09:50 PM
Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.

As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.

I think that Romney will comfortably win.

If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.

To quantify my ideas of momentum and voter turn out, I am predicting Obama 233 and Romney 305.

I wasn't able to attach my electoral map.... Bummer.

IMPress Polly
11-05-2012, 07:43 AM
ABSOLUTE FINAL 2012 U.S. ELECTION PREDICTION:

Okay, I did indeed have to make some minor revisions to my previous prediction on Friday. The revisions are as follows:

-For the presidential election, I have shifted three states within the Romney category: I have moved Colorado into "certain" territory for Romney and I have moved Florida and Virginia out of "certain" territory and into "likely" for Romney, to be as safe as I can. I have also moved Wisconsin and Iowa into secure Obama territory. I feel least confident in my predictions for Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire. I could be wrong about any or all of those, but my instinct, based on a combination of current polling data and seeming early voting patterns is believe that the former two will probably wind up going for Romney, while the latter will go for Obama. But I am almost absolutely certain (95% confident) that President Obama will win re-election tomorrow.

-Concerning my predictions for the House of Representatives, I have slightly decreased my prediction on the number of seats Democrats will gain from 5 to 3. No big deal really.

-Concerning the state governorships, I have now made a commitment to the number that I forecast Republicans will gain: It will be 2, not 3. The difference lies in that I've moved New Hampshire into the Democratic column for my prediction because I suspect it's most likely to go that way, though I could be wrong.

As for the Senate, I see no reason to make any changes to my forecast from the OP. I'm still predicting that there will be no change whatsoever in terms of the Senate's overall partisan balance.

Okay, that said, here is the detailed final breakdown I'm predicting:


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

Definite Obama states:

1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. Wisconsin
14. Illinois
15. Minnesota
16. Iowa
17. New Mexico
18. Nevada
19. Washington
20. Oregon
21. California
22. Hawaii

Likely Obama states:

23. New Hampshire

Definite Romney states:

1. North Carolina
2. South Carolina
3. West Virgina
4. Kentucky
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Indiana
8. Alabama
9. Mississippi
10. Missouri
11. Arkansas
12. Louisiana
13. North Dakota
14. South Dakota
15. Nebraska
16. Kansas
17. Oklahoma
18. Texas
19. Colorado
20. Montana
21. Wyoming
22. Utah
23. Arizona
24. Idaho
25. Alaska

Likely Romney states:

26. Virginia
27. Florida


According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:

Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm 95% certain that President Obama will win re-election tomorrow.)
Romney: 257


THE SENATE:

Current Scenario:

51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

My Prediction:

Stays in the Democratic Camp:

1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Wisconsin
15. Minnesota
16. Missouri
17. New Mexico
18. Washington
19. California
20. Hawaii

Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:

21. Massachusetts
22. Maine
23. Indiana

Stays Republican:

1. Tennessee
2. Mississippi
3. Texas
4. Wyoming
5. Utah
6. Arizona
7. Nevada

Switches from Democratic to Republican:

8. North Dakota
9. Nebraska
10. Montana

Prediction of the End Result:
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif

Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.)
Republicans: 47
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.


THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Current Situation:

Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5

My Prediction: Democrats experience a net gain of 3 seats.

FINAL BALANCE:

239 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will retain control of the House.)
196 Democrats.

Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.


STATE GOVERNORSHIPS

Current balance of state governorships:

29 Republicans
20 Democrats

11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.

My Prediction:

Stays Democratic

1. New Hampshire
2. Vermont
3. Delaware
4. West Virginia
5. Missouri
6. Washington

Stays Republican

1. Indiana
2. North Dakota
3. Utah

Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:

1. North Carolina
2. Montana

In other words, Republicans will probably pick up 2 governorships on balance.

FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

32 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will increase their number of governorships.)

18 Democratic governors


Notes: You can print this forecast out if you want and check mark off the ones I got right tomorrow morning. I may have gotten a few of the details wrong, but I would put any amount of money on the notion that President Obama will win re-election, that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Democrats, that the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans, and that Republicans will gain a minimal number of state governorships (minimal considering their huge mathematical advantage in that category this year). This is a status quo election through and through. Bet money on it if you want. It's not gambling because you won't lose.

Cigar
11-05-2012, 10:48 AM
Yea ... Mitt looks like he's ready to go home an work on that elevator.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcuizuJh9v1qzeo2zo1_500.jpg

IMPress Polly
11-05-2012, 11:34 AM
Correcting a math error I made on the governorships. My forecast SHOULD have read...

FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

31 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will increase their number of governorships.)

19 Democratic governors <-- This actually includes one independent who will align with Democrats.

The Republicans presently have 29 state governorships. If they win two more, as I've predicted, they'll wind up with 31, not 32.

ALSO:

I said that "You can print this forecast out if you want and check mark off the ones I got right tomorrow morning." I don't know what I was thinking there! Election day is tomorrow, not today obviously, so you might want to check mark them off on Wednesday morning, not tomorrow morning. :wink: My bad!

(I would've just edited the other post rather than making a new one, but it won't let me edit it anymore.)

bladimz
11-05-2012, 01:04 PM
Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges.
<You have always been a truly classy poster here.>


The disgust WE have for Obama and what he has done, and what he will further do if re-elected, is incalculable.
The disgust WE YOU have for Obama and what he has done...

bladimz
11-05-2012, 01:47 PM
The OP is clearly based on two week or more old thinking. And you are right. The message from Obama is 'get out the vote" to the point it is almost pleading if not downright begging. I have said from the beginning his support is soft and it is clear their polling numbers are showing that while they support him, a hang nail or a snow storm can keep them home.'

Romney meanwhile, is expanding his campaign, bringing heavy guns to bear on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with ads aimed at "undecided". Now, since the polled "undecided" is so tiny, clearly he is aiming his campaign on the "soft" Democrat support. That tells me their internal polling shows they have momentum in Ohio and probably have Florida by a nose, and they are sure that their support is going to show up.

It will NOT be the sweep the OP predicts, but a lot closer and, I would say the Democrats are very frightened about both the House and Senate.If Mitt is bringing his big guns to PA, he's wasting a lot of transportation costs (not that he cares...). PA is not really in play here. The middle of the state might go to Romney, but that's in no way going to give him the state.

If Obama does win, which i think he will, he will just have to endure another 4 years of repub obstructionism. That's all it comes down to, and all at the cost of America's future.

IMPress Polly
11-05-2012, 02:28 PM
bladimz wrote:
If Obama does win, which i think he will, he will just have to endure another 4 years of repub obstructionism.

Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.


Peter wrote:
Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.

As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.

I think that Romney will comfortably win.

If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.

The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.

As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.

In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.

Peter1469
11-05-2012, 05:17 PM
Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.



The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.

As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.

In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.

The reason that certain economic indicators look like they are improving, albeit at an anemic pace, is because of the various government debt spending programs. Even our economic leadership has admitted that we are past the point where debt spending brings more good than harm. The Federal Reserve is out of bullets. Once the market figures that out, there will be massive sell offs. I would predict that a 40% drop in the market would be the best case scenario. We will be lucky if our economy is not in full crash mode by the midterm elections. I doubt that Romney could stop it, although he may be able to inject enough confidence into the system to keep it going slightly longer.

Look at any of the economic graphs and subtract out government debt spending. That will give you a true but bleak picture of our situation.

Peter1469
11-05-2012, 05:19 PM
Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.



The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.

As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.

In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.

I have been out of the country since the storm- just got back last night. So I haven't seen any recent polls.

IMPress Polly
11-05-2012, 06:09 PM
Okay, I did my research on this this afternoon: It turns out there is no enthusiasm gap. A very recent (i.e. weekend) major national survey has found that 70% of registered Democrats and 70% of registered Republicans say they are either "very enthusiastic" or "extremely enthusiastic" about voting this year. Therefore one cannot count on an enthusiasm gap to make a measurable difference tomorrow.

(Sorry, I'm too low on time to provide any further responses tonight. Almost might as well just wait for the official results at this point anyway since the first of them will be coming out in barely another 24 hours.)

Peter1469
11-05-2012, 07:04 PM
What gives you the impression that there is no enthusiasm gap? There are different sources that provide very different results on it.

Cedric
11-05-2012, 08:32 PM
My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:

First prediction (mid-September) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/5957-2012-U-S-Election-Predictions)

Second prediction (end of September) (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/6714-Updated-U-S-Election-Predictions)

Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.

(Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)

Nate? Nate Silvers, is that you? Heh.

The problem with these predictions is that they are based on Obama getting the same wildly over the top tsunami-style numbers of voters to the voting booths tomorrow and yet that's unlikely to be the case because the enthusiasm for Obama simply isn't there in 2012.

On the other hand every Republican capable of getting out and voting is going to vote for Romney simply to get Obama the hell out of the Oval Office. This is not 'a status quo cycle' because Republicans really are very motivated to vote this time . . . whereas Obama supporters simply do not have the same degree of enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 that they had in 2008.

Cedric
11-05-2012, 08:40 PM
What gives you the impression that there is no enthusiasm gap? There are different sources that provide very different results on it.

You are absolutely correct Peter. There's simply no way that Obama supporters are as enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 as they were in 2008 and yet Romney supporters are very enthusiastic . . . to get Obama out of office, if nothing else. All by itself the Anybody But Obama political backlash on the Right had put Romney almost neck and neck with Obama after their national conventions and then the first presidential debate generated enthusiasm for Romney himself among ABO voters.

So there is an enthusiasm gap -- which the pro-Obama press and most of the polling companies have been pretending doesn't exist.

Captain Obvious
11-05-2012, 10:59 PM
I don't recall the numbers, but the enthusiasm gap was something like 20 points higher than McCain and maybe 15 points higher than Obama's score.

This was a few weeks ago though.

Carygrant
11-06-2012, 02:29 AM
There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm .
Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?

GrassrootsConservative
11-06-2012, 02:38 AM
There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm . Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ? 892

bladimz
11-06-2012, 11:10 AM
No. It looks like you are.

bladimz
11-06-2012, 11:15 AM
If there was more enthusiasm behind the Romney campaign as has been reported, consider that it's very possible that there could be a strong democratic response to that report be generating real enthusiasm for their President, in the effort to keep Mr. Romney out of office.

coolwalker
11-06-2012, 01:19 PM
You can calculate til' the cows come home, but your gut is the telling mark. Mine has gone up and down and the down part was largely due to biased media reporting. When however I am in the streets I don't see the signs and stickers or tee-shirts for Obama like 4 years ago. The enthusiasm has waned. The callers on talk radio for Obama are down also by more than 50%. Now those die-hards are screaming and will till the day they die I guess, but my predictions, like everything I do, is from my gut reaction. I still hold for 300 EC votes for Romney...after the recount because Obama will not go down like a gentleman.

Dispondent
11-06-2012, 03:55 PM
I think democrat optimism is based upon poor polling methods. The hope and change drunk is over. 2010 proved that, and nothing Obama has done since 2010 has been enough to get is base out in the numbers he would need to win...

bladimz
11-06-2012, 05:00 PM
I think democrat optimism is based upon poor polling methods. The hope and change drunk is over. 2010 proved that, and nothing Obama has done since 2010 has been enough to get is base out in the numbers he would need to win...2010, you say? Isn't that the year that the Tea Party kids were voted into congress:

898

Coincidence, you say? I think not.

Not really any wonder why Obama was unable to accomplish much.

Larry Dickman
11-06-2012, 05:04 PM
2010, you say? Isn't that the year that the Tea Party kids were voted into congress:

898

Coincidence, you say? I think not.

Not really any wonder why Obama was unable to accomplish much.

The scumbag did more damage in his first two years than any president in history, aside from LBJ or FDR. NOTHING was proposed in the next two years except for more of the same. He and his disgusting wife are done soiling the White House. Our national Nightmare is coming to an end.

bladimz
11-06-2012, 05:29 PM
The scumbag did more damage in his first two years than any president in history, aside from LBJ or FDR. NOTHING was proposed in the next two years except for more of the same. He and his disgusting wife are done soiling the White House. Our national Nightmare is coming to an end. C'mon. Don't hold back; tell us how you really feel...
He's damaged this country beyond that of any other president, and he did it without invading any countries, much less 2. Pretty damned impressive. Don't worry. 4 years from now, your nightmare will be over. And you can kiss Michelle good-bye. :kiss:

Peter1469
11-06-2012, 06:53 PM
There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm .
Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?

Iceland show the way. They refused to cover banker debt with tax payer dollars. They prosecuted bankers and put them in jail, and they have bounced back. Don't reward failure/fraud with tax dollar bailouts.

KC
11-07-2012, 12:25 AM
Looks like Polly was more on than most on these forums. My only prediction, that whoever won would do so relatively modestly, turned out to be wrong.

Nice going Polly!

IMPress Polly
11-07-2012, 07:31 AM
Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/8169-My-%28Tentatively%29-Final-U-S-Election-Predictions?p=177157&viewfull=1#post177157) However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply based my prediction on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day said, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.

countryboy
11-07-2012, 07:34 AM
Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/8169-My-%28Tentatively%29-Final-U-S-Election-Predictions?p=177157&viewfull=1#post177157) However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply made my prediction based on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.
Congrats on your accurate prediction.....I hate you. :(

Just kidding (about the hate part). :D

truthmatters
11-07-2012, 07:38 AM
good going Polly

IMPress Polly
11-07-2012, 07:54 AM
Here were the results from my state:

THE PRESIDENCY:

Obama: 67%
Romney: 31%

...Pffffff! LOL!!!!! :laugh:

THE GOVERNORSHIP:

Shumlin (Democrat): 58%
Brock (Republican): 38%

...close...not. :wink:

THE SENATE:

Sanders (independent socialist): 71%
MacGovern (Republican): 25%

...The socialist was the most popular winner of the night in my home state! Won by an even bigger margin than in 2006! :smiley::smiley:

bladimz
11-07-2012, 09:09 AM
Excellent work, Polly. I have to say that i personally expected Obama to win, but certainly not because i did all the researching and work that you did. I just simply could not believe that Obama could lose to such a weak opponent. I say that because, when Romney backers say that Hurricane Sandy and the Chris Christie / Obama moment was such a big negative, that tells me that their candidate was just weak.

Romney, though, did deliver a very excellent concession speech, and presented himself well. I did read somewhere that Tagg is drunk and out to take a big swing at the POTUS. :grin:

Todd Aiken, on the other hand, was a simple ass delivering his concession speech in his loss. Now he can go back to 1920 where he belongs.

Chris
11-07-2012, 09:38 AM
Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election.

I predicted it the day Romney won the nomination. He got a bump after the first debate, but couldn't sustain it. Lousy choice, the GOP needs to regroup and select a conservative/libertarian next time to give America a choice.

truthmatters
11-07-2012, 10:01 AM
Is that why you defended him?

KC
11-07-2012, 10:36 AM
Here were the results from my state:

THE PRESIDENCY:

Obama: 67%
Romney: 31%

...Pffffff! LOL!!!!! :laugh:

THE GOVERNORSHIP:

Shumlin (Democrat): 58%
Brock (Republican): 38%

...close...not. :wink:

THE SENATE:

Sanders (independent socialist): 71%
MacGovern (Republican): 25%

...The socialist was the most popular winner of the night in my home state! Won by an even bigger margin than in 2006! :smiley::smiley:

You must have known that Obama would do so well in your state, so, why not vote third party? I mean, Stein's political views seem to match up much better to yours, and there was no danger of Obama losing Vermont.

It's the same thing I wonder about Texas Democrats and California Republicans. If the results in those states are concluded before the race, why not do Democracy a favor?

IMPress Polly
11-07-2012, 10:53 AM
KC wrote:
Looks like Polly was more on than most on these forums. My only prediction, that whoever won would do so relatively modestly, turned out to be wrong.

Nice going Polly!

Thanks! Actually though, we were both right (somewhat) about the closeness of the race. Look at the popular vote. Obama didn't win it by very much. It's really just the electoral vote in which he cleaned house. I didn't foresee that coming any more than you did. Like I said earlier today though, I've learned the error of my prediction methodology, so I'll be able to give more precise forecasts in the future.


You must have known that Obama would do so well in your state, so, why not vote third party?

That's a good point actually, but...it probably would have detracted from my "vote for Obama" message I was delivering to the general U.S. public. :wink:

Chris
11-07-2012, 10:57 AM
Is that why you defended him?

Show us where I have ever done that, matters. We went through this yesterday and you were unable to do that. Should we call you makeupmatters?

KC
11-07-2012, 11:02 AM
That's a good point actually, but...it probably would have detracted from my "vote for Obama" message I was delivering to the general U.S. public. :wink:

Well, I suppose your honesty is refreshing. You could have easily voted for anyone else but still preached the Obama message, knowing full well that we can't check your ballot.

Chris
11-07-2012, 02:04 PM
I predicted it the day Romney won the nomination. He got a bump after the first debate, but couldn't sustain it. Lousy choice, the GOP needs to regroup and select a conservative/libertarian next time to give America a choice.


Is that why you defended him?

Here I am clearly criticizing Romney and the GOP and you blatantly making a false accusation.

Peter1469
11-07-2012, 06:48 PM
Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. (http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/8169-My-%28Tentatively%29-Final-U-S-Election-Predictions?p=177157&viewfull=1#post177157) However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply based my prediction on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day said, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.


But didn't you also say in other posts that no candidate would get over 300 electoral votes and those who predicted such things were morons (OK I embellished the last word). :rollseyes:

Peter1469
11-07-2012, 06:49 PM
Here I am clearly criticizing Romney and the GOP and you blatantly making a false accusation.

I am positive that TM is clueless over the issue. Don't be hard on the feeble minded. It is cruel.