Bethere
09-10-2017, 04:50 PM
Rut-roh.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/349884-gop-fears-a-few-surprise-house-retirements-could-become-a-wave?amp
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats in order to flip the House. The path of least resistance includes victories in many of the 23 GOP-held districts that Hillary Clinton (http://thehill.com/people/hillary-clinton) carried, and each retirement in those districts improves Democratic prospects. Departures by moderates like Reichert, Dent and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), who announced her impending retirement earlier this year, will also cost Republicans by forcing them to spend more money to keep the seats. While the seats held by Reichert and Ros-Lehtinen had already been on House Democrats' radar because Clinton won in those districts, Republicans would have had an edge if the incumbents ran. Democrats hadn't included Dent's eastern Pennsylvania district on their target list because he was seen as a strong incumbent. Without Dent, though, the district - which has swung between Republicans and Democrats in recent presidential elections - is back in Democrats' sights.
"It makes holding the majority that much tougher because those are tough seats. And those are very good candidates," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republicans' campaign arm. Dent, Reichert and Ros-Lehtinen all outperformed Trump in their districts in November, so their absence will be felt on the ballot. Dent outran Trump by 12 points, while Reichert bested Trump by 23 points and Ros-Lehtinen outperformed him by 30 points.
A president's party typically faces strong headwinds in the first midterm after a presidential election, especially in open seats it previously held. A recent analysis by Kyle Kondik (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/for-house-republicans-past-performance-is-no-guarantee-of-future-results/) at the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball elections website found that the party in the White House usually loses 11 percent of its vote share in an open seat midterm race, compared with the previous incumbent's margin two years earlier.
"These open seats can be very vulnerable and difficult to hold," Skelley said. "If this is the tip of the iceberg for retirements, that will be very bad for the GOP."
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/349884-gop-fears-a-few-surprise-house-retirements-could-become-a-wave?amp
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats in order to flip the House. The path of least resistance includes victories in many of the 23 GOP-held districts that Hillary Clinton (http://thehill.com/people/hillary-clinton) carried, and each retirement in those districts improves Democratic prospects. Departures by moderates like Reichert, Dent and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), who announced her impending retirement earlier this year, will also cost Republicans by forcing them to spend more money to keep the seats. While the seats held by Reichert and Ros-Lehtinen had already been on House Democrats' radar because Clinton won in those districts, Republicans would have had an edge if the incumbents ran. Democrats hadn't included Dent's eastern Pennsylvania district on their target list because he was seen as a strong incumbent. Without Dent, though, the district - which has swung between Republicans and Democrats in recent presidential elections - is back in Democrats' sights.
"It makes holding the majority that much tougher because those are tough seats. And those are very good candidates," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republicans' campaign arm. Dent, Reichert and Ros-Lehtinen all outperformed Trump in their districts in November, so their absence will be felt on the ballot. Dent outran Trump by 12 points, while Reichert bested Trump by 23 points and Ros-Lehtinen outperformed him by 30 points.
A president's party typically faces strong headwinds in the first midterm after a presidential election, especially in open seats it previously held. A recent analysis by Kyle Kondik (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/for-house-republicans-past-performance-is-no-guarantee-of-future-results/) at the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball elections website found that the party in the White House usually loses 11 percent of its vote share in an open seat midterm race, compared with the previous incumbent's margin two years earlier.
"These open seats can be very vulnerable and difficult to hold," Skelley said. "If this is the tip of the iceberg for retirements, that will be very bad for the GOP."