China’s 8.5 ton space lab will soon crash to Earth

[Peter1469]

China’s 8.5 ton space lab will soon crash to Earth (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/10/16/chinas-first-space-station-will-soon-crash-to-earth-no-one-knows-where-itll-hit/?utm_term=.3f4ead6474e0)

Pieces are going to land somewhere. But nothing all that big.


Tiangong 1, which translates to “Heavenly Palace,” is China's first space laboratory, launched in September 2011, serving as a prototype for a permanent space station that it aims to eventually build and launch. But six years after it first went into orbit, the 8½-ton laboratory is soon expected to meet a fiery and uncontrolled end, hurtling down to Earth and crashing somewhere — anywhere — on the planet.In September 2016, Chinese officials confirmed that they had lost control of the space lab and that it would crash into Earth sometime in the latter half of 2017. In May, China told (http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2017/aac_105/aac_1051150_0_html/AC105_1150E.pdf) the United Nations that the lab would reenter Earth between October and April 2018.


Much of the space lab, which measures 34 feet in length, is expected to burn up during its reentry. But Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist from Harvard University, told (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/13/tiangong-1-chinese-space-station-will-crash-to-earth-within-months) the Guardian that pieces weighing up to 220 pounds could make it to the Earth's surface.

[waltky]

Granny out inna backyard...

... tryin' to shoot it down.

[Crepitus]

Ha! I told you meteor insurance wasn't a scam!

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - the sky is fallin' an' it's all dem Chinamen's fault...
:shocked:
A Chinese Space Lab Will Soon Fall From The Sky. Where It Lands, No One Knows
March 20, 2018 • Most of the Chinese space lab, the size of a city bus, will burn up in the atmosphere, but some debris may survive re-entry.


A Chinese space lab the size of a city bus will soon be falling back to Earth, and no one knows exactly where bits of it might crash down. Current predictions say that the 19,000-pound lab should re-enter the earth's atmosphere sometime in the last few days of March or the first few days of April. The lab is called Tiangong-1, which means "heavenly palace." China launched it into space in 2011. The outpost was briefly visited twice by Chinese taikonauts, including Wang Yaping, who beamed down a science lecture to schoolchildren. Although Tiangong-1 has been called a Chinese "space station," it actually is just a precursor to China's planned space station, says Joan Johnson-Freese, a professor at the Naval War College.

Since 1992, she says, China has been following a methodical program "to demonstrate human space flight and culminate with a large space station." For that, China's space agency needs to get experience with things like docking and long-term life support in space. Tiangong-1 and another lab in orbit called Tiangong-2, "have been technology test bed laboratories to do experimentation on all those different areas and more," she explains. Now, though, Tiangong-1 is headed back down. And even though space junk this size falls to Earth a few times a year, it's usually something like a spent rocket stage — not a home-away-from-home for space travelers. "These kinds of events are noteworthy and people in this business kind of watch to see what they can learn about how these things come apart as they come down," says Bill Ailor of the Aerospace Corporation's Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies.


https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2018/03/20/ap_101116026044_wide-fa1b8f6e9fb08e2bcb216e16da208e07c8395545-s800-c85.jpg
A model of the Tiangong-1 space station at a Chinese airshow in 2010. The real Tiangong-1 will reenter the atmosphere around the end of March.

Most of it, though not all, should burn up during the fiery re-entry. "Somewhere between, say, 2,000 and 8,000 pounds might come down," Ailor says. The possible impact zone covers about two-thirds of the globe, including a lot of the continental United States. But exactly where and when is hard to predict because the vehicle will interact with the atmosphere, which is constantly changing. Still, don't worry about getting hit, says Ailor. "It's just not a very likely event that a particular person would have a problem with it," he says.

In 60 years of space exploration, only one person — an American woman named Lottie Williams — is known to have been struck by falling space junk, says Ailor, "and it was just like a piece of fabric material that kind of brushed her on the shoulder." He hopes that someone gets to see the bright streaks created by Tiangong-1 breaking up and burning. "It would be a beautiful thing to watch," says Ailor. But since most of our planet is covered by oceans, he says the most likely scenario is that it will come down over the water and never be seen or heard from again.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/20/595190226/a-chinese-space-lab-will-soon-fall-from-the-sky-where-it-lands-no-one-knows

[Max Rockatansky]

Me not worried. :D

[gamewell45]

China’s 8.5 ton space lab will soon crash to Earth (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/10/16/chinas-first-space-station-will-soon-crash-to-earth-no-one-knows-where-itll-hit/?utm_term=.3f4ead6474e0)

Pieces are going to land somewhere. But nothing all that big.

I recall back in the late seventies, the Skylab re-entered the atmosphere and they were afraid that pieces of it would land in North America; the day it happened several of my friends and I gathered for a skylab party. We had a bbq, wore construction helmets, had the radio on to the local all-news station and drank way too much beer. None of the pieces landed nearby; in fact I'm not sure that any of them landed in North America. The food and beer were good tho'.

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - the sky is fallin'...
:shocked:
Chinese space station set to plummet uncontrolled back to Earth
Mar 25, 2018, What goes up, must come down



Simply put, that's why there's so much interest in Tiangong-1, China's first space station, which was launched in 2011 and has been in decreasing orbit ever since. China admitted last year it no longer had control of the space station –– and now it’s getting close to plummeting back to Earth. Most of it will burn up on re-entry, but there’s always a chance some of it will survive and hit Earth. That said, most of our planet is covered by water so the odds are overwhelming it will splash down in an ocean someplace.




https://s.abcnews.com/images/International/tiangong-1-ap-jt-180325_hpEmbed_22x13_992.jpg



China is already building another more ambitious space station -- Tiangong-2 was launched in 2016 -- as well as a lunar base, and is ramping up its space program dramatically. The European Space Agency (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/science/european-space-agency.htm) is now sending its astronauts to train in China, since there is so little opportunity with NASA (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/nasa.htm) these days. NASA shut down its Space Shuttle (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/science/space-shuttles.htm) Program following the launch of Atlantis in July 2011 and has sent astronauts up to the International Space Station (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/space-station.htm) on Russian launches ever since. The last manned mission to Tiangong-1 was in 2013.


When will it crash back to Earth?

Much depends on angle, velocity and atmospheric density –- but current predictions have it re-entering as early as March 29 and as late as April 2.

What are the odds someone will get hit?

Aerospace Corporation, which tracks space junk (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/science/space-debris.htm) for NASA and Space Command, says the odds you will be hit -- even if you are in the highest-probability zones -- are about 1 million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot. The only known person to have been hit by space junk is Lottie Williams (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=98700&page=1) of Tulsa, Oklahoma. She was hit, and uninjured, when a used Delta II rocket burned up on re-entry in January 1997.


Who has the highest risk? (http://abcnews.go.com/International/chinese-space-station-set-plummet-uncontrolled-back-earth/story?id=53997418)

[waltky]

Uncle Ferd got his tinfoil hardhat on...
:wink:
Tiangong-1: China space lab's return approaches
1 Apr`18 - The estimated window of re-entry for the defunct Chinese space lab Tiangong-1 has narrowed sharply.


The timeframe for the fall to Earth is centred on 01:07 Monday GMT (02:07 BST), plus or minus two hours. Experts are tracking the module as it orbits at an ever decreasing altitude. However, they will only be sure of the timing of the final plunge very late in the descent because of the uncertainties over Tiangong's interactions with the high atmosphere. China has lost communication with the module and there is no way to control its downward flight.

However, the risk of any parts of Tiangong hitting a populated area is considered very low. "Given Tiangong-1 has a larger mass and is more robust, as it is pressurised, than many other space objects that return uncontrolled to Earth from space, it is the subject of a number of radar tracking campaigns," explained Richard Crowther, the UK Space Agency's chief engineer. "The majority of the module can be expected to burn up during re-entry heating, with the greatest probability being that any surviving fragments will fall into the sea," he told BBC News.


https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/05E6/production/_100601510_tiangong1_map_640_english_v3.png

* Precise knowledge of the re-entry time and location will come late
* Typically, only in the last hour or so are experts very confident
* Most of the module's components will burn up in the high atmosphere
* Its orbital path means any debris is restricted in where it can fall
* Perhaps 20-40% could survive to the surface - that's 1.5-3.5 tonnes
* The highest probability is that this material would hit the ocean
* Any debris path at the surface would be hundreds of km long
* Tiangong is the 50th most massive object to come back uncontrolled

Launched in 2011 and visited by six Chinese astronauts, the 10m-long, 8.5-tonne Tiangong module should really have been de-orbited in a planned manner. Traditionally, thrusters are fired on large vehicles to drive them towards a remote zone over the Southern Ocean. But this option appears not to be available, especially after the loss of command links in 2016. Tiangong is now brushing through the top of the atmosphere, which is dragging on the spacecraft and causing it to lose altitude rapidly. Thirteen space agencies, under the leadership of the European Space Agency, have been using radar and optical observations to follow its path around the globe, modelling its behaviour.


https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1618E/production/_100601509_tiangong_1_v3_640-nc.png

This collective, known as the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), has issued regular updates on the descent progress, and Esa itself gave its own final bulletin on Sunday. This forecast was for a four-hour re-entry window centred on 01:07 GMT Monday. "A confidence of one hour is only reached about four hours beforehand. And one hour still means almost one revolution around the Earth," said Holger Krag, the head of Esa's space debris office. "But that's still good enough to exclude many countries and even some continents."

MORE (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43557446)

See also:

China's defunct space lab hurtling toward Earth for re-entry
Mar 29, 2018, China's defunct and reportedly out-of-control Tiangong 1 space station is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime this weekend. It poses only a slight risk to people and property on the ground, since most of the bus-size, 8.5-ton vehicle is expected to burn up on re-entry, although space agencies don't know exactly when or where that will happen.


Below are some questions and answers about the station, its re-entry and the past and future of China's ambitious space program.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN AND HOW GREAT IS THE DANGER?

The European Space Agency predicts the station will re-enter the atmosphere between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon — an estimate it calls "highly variable," likely because the ever-changing shape of the upper atmosphere affects the speed of objects falling into it. The Chinese space agency's latest estimate puts re-entry between Saturday and Wednesday.

Western space experts say they believe China has lost control of the station. China's chief space laboratory designer Zhu Zongpeng has denied Tiangong was out of control, but hasn't provided specifics on what, if anything, China is doing to guide the craft's re-entry. Based on Tiangong 1's orbit, it will come to Earth somewhere between latitudes of 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south, or roughly somewhere over most of the United States, China, Africa, southern Europe, Australia and South America. Out of range are Russia, Canada and northern Europe.

Based on its size, only about 10 percent of the spacecraft will likely survive being burned up on re-entry, mainly its heavier components such as its engines. The chances of anyone person on Earth being hit by debris is considered less than one in a trillion. Ren Guoqiang, China's defense ministry spokesman, told reporters Thursday that Beijing has been briefing the United Nations and the international community about Tiangong 1's re-entry through multiple channels.

HOW COMMON IS MAN-MADE SPACE DEBRIS? (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/chinas-defunct-space-lab-hurtling-earth-entry-54088824)

[Common]

Michigan is in a state of emergency

[Max Rockatansky]

Michigan is in a state of emergencyIt's a precaution, although a bit of an overreaction IMO. Figures the Libs would go apeshit over the infinitesimal chance a small chunk hits a house.

[gamewell45]

It's a precaution, although a bit of an overreaction IMO. Figures the Libs would go ape$#@! over the infinitesimal chance a small chunk hits a house.

They are probably worried if they say or do nothing if the infinitesimal chance a small chunk hits there house/car/human, they might be sued for not alerting the public in general. Like you say probably a bit of an overreaction on their part but they are playing it safe.

[Max Rockatansky]

They are probably worried if they say or do nothing if the infinitesimal chance a small chunk hits there house/car/human, they might be sued for not alerting the public in general. Like you say probably a bit of an overreaction on their part but they are playing it safe.
F**king lawyers, amirite?

[gamewell45]

F**king lawyers, amirite?

Haha, I think it's a greedy, litigious society. Everyone hates attorney's until they need one, then they are your best friend! :)

[gamewell45]

It has been reported that the Chinese space station has re-entered earth's atmosphere and crashed into the pacific ocean.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/02/tiangong-1-crash-china-space-station

[MisterVeritis]

It has been reported that the Chinese space station has re-entered earth's atmosphere and crashed into the pacific ocean.

Does this mean it is too late for me to head into my bunker?

[Standing Wolf]

I recall back in the late seventies, the Skylab re-entered the atmosphere and they were afraid that pieces of it would land in North America; the day it happened several of my friends and I gathered for a skylab party. We had a bbq, wore construction helmets, had the radio on to the local all-news station and drank way too much beer. None of the pieces landed nearby; in fact I'm not sure that any of them landed in North America. The food and beer were good tho'.

I think most if not all of the big pieces landed in Australia.

https://www.space.com/21092-skylab-space-station-debris-photos.html