MMC
02-11-2018, 04:48 PM
and Immigration.....
In my post yesterday (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/08/armageddons-crumbs-time-for-another-burst-of-companies-unveiling-tax-reform-benefits-n2445832) about freshly-announced benefits from tax reform -- here's another bummer (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/cvs-hikes-wages-and-announces-q4-earnings.html) for Pelosi and friends -- I warned that in spite of Americans' positivity on the economy and growing support for the GOP-passed law, outsized Democratic enthusiasm threatens to make a 'blue wave' inevitable. I stand by that analysis, but figured I'd keep you posted on data points and trends that push back against the 'doomed GOP' narrative. One was the Monmouth poll we covered (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/01/boom-new-national-poll-shows-tax-reform-skyrocketing-dems-cratering-on-generic-ballot-n2442580) last week. The latest national survey (https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/politico-morning-consult-poll/) from Politico is another. The president's approval rating is up to a respectable level, Republicans have eaten away at Democrats' (once double-digit) generic ballot lead, and voters trust the GOP on a number of top issues:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DViXYZhUQAARPIR.jpg
In the poll, Republicans go three-for-three on national security (+13), the economy (+9), and jobs (+6). That ain't bad for a group that's on death's door, according to the conventional wisdom. I'm also a little surprised to see the immigration data; although it's true that despite media framing, Republicans' stances on the issue are actually quite popular (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/07/immigration-polling-n2444632).
Via Larry Sabato's crystal ball (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-republicans-still-have-plenty-of-targets/):
Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938. Five of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in states he won. Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U.S. House of Representatives. That said, the Democrats do have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim...Democrats need all the breaks to win a majority.
There's a reason why Republicans are eager for Nancy Pelosi to keep her profile (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/08/even-democrats-are-scoffing-at-pelosis-useless-filibuster-stunt-n2446345) as high as possible......snip~
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/09/politico-poll-trump-gop-gain-n2446346
There you have it, the turn around and Politico's Poll is known as the Morning Consult. As long as the Demos keep up their Feast Resistance and Pelosi keeps out in front of the camera. The leftness can start sounding off Like Glum in Gullivers Travels. Running around, talking bout.....Were Doomed! :laugh:
In my post yesterday (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/08/armageddons-crumbs-time-for-another-burst-of-companies-unveiling-tax-reform-benefits-n2445832) about freshly-announced benefits from tax reform -- here's another bummer (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/cvs-hikes-wages-and-announces-q4-earnings.html) for Pelosi and friends -- I warned that in spite of Americans' positivity on the economy and growing support for the GOP-passed law, outsized Democratic enthusiasm threatens to make a 'blue wave' inevitable. I stand by that analysis, but figured I'd keep you posted on data points and trends that push back against the 'doomed GOP' narrative. One was the Monmouth poll we covered (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/01/boom-new-national-poll-shows-tax-reform-skyrocketing-dems-cratering-on-generic-ballot-n2442580) last week. The latest national survey (https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/politico-morning-consult-poll/) from Politico is another. The president's approval rating is up to a respectable level, Republicans have eaten away at Democrats' (once double-digit) generic ballot lead, and voters trust the GOP on a number of top issues:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DViXYZhUQAARPIR.jpg
In the poll, Republicans go three-for-three on national security (+13), the economy (+9), and jobs (+6). That ain't bad for a group that's on death's door, according to the conventional wisdom. I'm also a little surprised to see the immigration data; although it's true that despite media framing, Republicans' stances on the issue are actually quite popular (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/07/immigration-polling-n2444632).
Via Larry Sabato's crystal ball (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-republicans-still-have-plenty-of-targets/):
Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938. Five of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in states he won. Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U.S. House of Representatives. That said, the Democrats do have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim...Democrats need all the breaks to win a majority.
There's a reason why Republicans are eager for Nancy Pelosi to keep her profile (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/08/even-democrats-are-scoffing-at-pelosis-useless-filibuster-stunt-n2446345) as high as possible......snip~
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/02/09/politico-poll-trump-gop-gain-n2446346
There you have it, the turn around and Politico's Poll is known as the Morning Consult. As long as the Demos keep up their Feast Resistance and Pelosi keeps out in front of the camera. The leftness can start sounding off Like Glum in Gullivers Travels. Running around, talking bout.....Were Doomed! :laugh: