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mamooth
07-08-2018, 06:34 PM
The breakeven price for growing soybeans is about $10.00/bushel

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/04/projected-corn-and-soybean-breakeven-prices.html


Thanks to the loss of Chinese sales, the price of soybeans as of this date is $8.775/bushel.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data

Do the math. Soybean farmers are getting hammered. Some of them are even figuring out that voting for Trump was a really bad idea.

https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/116175
---
Almost 67 percent of the survey participants said they voted for Trump, versus only 24 percent for Hillary Clinton.
But when all respondents were asked if they would support Trump's reelection, only 45 percent said they would do so, representing an almost 20 percent drop in support from both Trump and Clinton voters.
---

Wow. A 20% drop in support for Trump among farmers. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa just went solid blue. No wonder the Trump cultists are in such a hysterical meltdown state.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 06:37 PM
This is only the beginning of the collateral damage.

DLLS
07-08-2018, 06:39 PM
Hey if the Chinese don't want to purchase our agricultural products they can all just go ahead and starve.

Can solely purchasing from other nations meet China's demands, or are they going to come crawling back to us "little red books" in hand begging for food?

texan
07-08-2018, 06:49 PM
Pretty funny post. It doesn’t really make sense. He is bankrupting them. Some have even figured it out.


If he were bankrupting them them they would all figure it out immediately. So the stupidity of the comments forced me to read his BS.


I like like how you didn’t post everything only what you wanted to make a fake news point.

Right after and in the same paragraph continuing it says:

”However, many may be reserving judgement to see how some of his actions play out: Another 18 percent said they did not know how they will vote in 2020.

"The farmers I talk to are very concerned about trade, and while they are willing to give the President the benefit of the doubt in the hope that his actions will result in better deals, folks are getting pretty nervous," says Blake Hurst, a Tarkio, Missouri, farmer who leads the Missouri Farm Bureau. Plus, Hurst says there may be a delayed reaction on the benefits of the tax cuts. "Unlike wage earners who are seeing an increased paycheck because of lower withholding, farmers won't see the actual benefits of the tax cut until next year, as they prepare for March 1 tax deadline."



They know something needs to be done and will wait and see. Hoping he can fight this battle and it pays off for them. Thanks for playing nimrod. Nobody is panicked that is supporting him. Now crawl back into your hole. This is a business as usual post for hack democrats.

Dangermouse
07-08-2018, 06:50 PM
Not a problem, they'll blame Obama. Or it's Hillary's fault, lock her up!

MMC
07-08-2018, 06:53 PM
Soybean Oil: Another Harmful Ingredient in Processed … (https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2013/01/27/soybean-oil.aspx)https://articles.mercola.com/.../archive/2013/01/27/soybean-oil.aspx[/URL]
The logic behind Roundup Ready crops such as soy is that you can decrease the cost of production by killing off everything except the actual soy plant. However, animal studies reveal there may be significant adverse health effects from these GE soybeans, including progressively increased rates of infertility with each passing generation. By the third …



10 Reasons to Never Ever Drink Soy Milk (https://www.bing.com/search?q=Soybeans+bad+for+you&qs=n&sp=-1&pq=soybeans+bad+for+you&sc=8-20&sk=&cvid=3ED103E7D4054BA28F8CBAA9CF3DF70E&first=11&FORM=PERE#)https://empoweredsustenance.com/avoid-soy-milk
If soy milk was a truly nutritious and delicious way to prepare soy, you could bet that great-great-great-great Chinese grandmothers would have raised their children on soy milk. 4. Genetically Modified Soy




Benefits of tariffs

Benefits of Tariffs Tariffs provide an array of benefits, especially to domestic producers in terms of reduced competition locally. A reduction in competition on the local market in turn causes price fluctuations, which increases job opportunities creating employment for local residents.
[URL="http://benefitof.net/benefits-of-quotas/"]Benefits Of Quotas | Benefits Of (https://www.bing.com/search?q=Soybeans+bad+for+you&qs=n&sp=-1&pq=soybeans+bad+for+you&sc=8-20&sk=&cvid=3ED103E7D4054BA28F8CBAA9CF3DF70E&first=11&FORM=PERE#)
benefitof.net/benefits-of-quotas/



BTW 45 % is still more thn the 24% that voted for Hillary and the Demos.

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 06:54 PM
This is only the beginning of the collateral damage.

I’m sure the long term results will make people forget the short term pain.

DLLS
07-08-2018, 06:54 PM
Not a problem, they'll blame Obama. Or it's Hillary's fault, lock her up!

I try not to think about Bathhouse Barry or Hillary and have noticed I spend less time being depressed.

Mr.Soxes
07-08-2018, 06:55 PM
Hey if the Chinese don't want to purchase our agricultural products they can all just go ahead and starve.

Can solely purchasing from other nations meet China's demands, or are they going to come crawling back to us "little red books" in hand begging for food?

Are we the ones keeping Chinese wages low?:dang:

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 06:57 PM
Not a problem, they'll blame Obama. Or it's Hillary's fault, lock her up!


Maybe they will follow the lead of the Obama worshipers and blame Bush for the entire Trump term.

DLLS
07-08-2018, 06:59 PM
Are we the ones keeping Chinese wages low?:dang:

What low wages? When I was on the Island of Okinawa the Chinese hooker in Whisper Alley charged the same as the rest. Or so I heard.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 07:02 PM
I’m sure the long term results will make people forget the short term pain.
Do you really think that the soybean growers give a rat's behind about whether more steelworkers are employed, if it means they go in the hole for the entire growing season? Are the steelworkers going to send money to the soya bean growers or the auto workers or any of the other sectors that are now being tariffed? No one is going to pay them for their sacrifice.

MMC
07-08-2018, 07:02 PM
This is only the beginning of the collateral damage.

China loses in a trade war against the US. Our damage is minimal as opposed to theirs. They need the US in order to make money. That can't make it up with the EU.

texan
07-08-2018, 07:04 PM
More posts ignoring the article. Hack!

Chris
07-08-2018, 07:04 PM
The breakeven price for growing soybeans is about $10.00/bushel

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/04/projected-corn-and-soybean-breakeven-prices.html


Thanks to the loss of Chinese sales, the price of soybeans as of this date is $8.775/bushel.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data

Do the math. Soybean farmers are getting hammered. Some of them are even figuring out that voting for Trump was a really bad idea.

https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/116175
---
Almost 67 percent of the survey participants said they voted for Trump, versus only 24 percent for Hillary Clinton.
But when all respondents were asked if they would support Trump's reelection, only 45 percent said they would do so, representing an almost 20 percent drop in support from both Trump and Clinton voters.
---

Wow. A 20% drop in support for Trump among farmers. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa just went solid blue. No wonder the Trump cultists are in such a hysterical meltdown state.



Coincidence is not causation. Chinese (not Trump) tariffs on soybeans just took effect Friday. But according to your own source, prices have been trending down since 2012:

https://i.snag.gy/2Yfu9D.jpg

The more likely explanation is soybean production has been on the rise for some time:

https://i.snag.gy/FtjY5v.jpg

The glut in supply has reduced demand, thereby lowering prices...for some time now.

Do the math.

Jeb!
07-08-2018, 07:07 PM
Nah, soyboys are the Democratic base.

Chris
07-08-2018, 07:07 PM
Do you really think that the soybean growers give a rat's behind about whether more steelworkers are employed, if it means they go in the hole for the entire growing season? Are the steelworkers going to send money to the soya bean growers or the auto workers or any of the other sectors that are now being tariffed? No one is going to pay them for their sacrifice.


Do Canadians give a crap about whether dairy workers are employed? In some cases Canadian tariffs are as high as 270% on Dairy Products!

DLLS
07-08-2018, 07:10 PM
One question, are these some of the same farmers that are being paid by taxpayers not to plant wheat and other crops? If so should we really feel sorry for them? Okay that was two questions.

Chris
07-08-2018, 07:10 PM
It is absolutely hilarious to see liberals arguing for free trade.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 07:13 PM
China loses in a trade war against the US. Our damage is minimal as opposed to theirs. They need the US in order to make money. That can't make it up with the EU.
Perhaps they do, but they are used to hardship.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 07:18 PM
Do Canadians give a crap about whether dairy workers are employed? In some cases Canadian tariffs are as high as 270% on Dairy Products!
Is this some more whataboutism?

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 07:26 PM
One question, are these some of the same farmers that are being paid by taxpayers not to plant wheat and other crops? If so should we really feel sorry for them? Okay that was two questions.
Perhaps and if so, they are subsidized, no? If they are subsidized, then that might well be grounds to tariff their crops.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 07:27 PM
Coincidence is not causation. Chinese (not Trump) tariffs on soybeans just took effect Friday. But according to your own source, prices have been trending down since 2012:

https://i.snag.gy/2Yfu9D.jpg

The more likely explanation is soybean production has been on the rise for some time:

https://i.snag.gy/FtjY5v.jpg

The glut in supply has reduced demand, thereby lowering prices...for some time now.

Do the math.
So the tariffs add insult to injury and instead of making some profit, they go in the hole.

MMC
07-08-2018, 07:36 PM
Do Canadians give a crap about whether dairy workers are employed? In some cases Canadian tariffs are as high as 270% on Dairy Products!

Moreover Canada has 17 Tariff treatments for each and every Tariff.

MMC
07-08-2018, 07:38 PM
Perhaps they do, but they are used to hardship.

Yeah and Asian Markets going down. Back to currency manipulation while losing Foreign Money savings.

China just blinked issuing a safety warning for Travel to the US.


Trump should come back with another 100 billion on China. Tell them match that.

Chris
07-08-2018, 07:54 PM
Is this some more whataboutism?

I'm just surprised someone who supports tariffs doesn't depending who imposes them.

Chris
07-08-2018, 07:55 PM
So the tariffs add insult to injury and instead of making some profit, they go in the hole.

Try and make some semblance of sense, who. They're Chinese tariffs.

Jeb!
07-08-2018, 08:09 PM
It is absolutely hilarious to see liberals arguing for free trade.
What are they going to do if Bernie Sanders is the nominee in 2020? Go back to arguing that free trade is bad?

Chris
07-08-2018, 08:14 PM
What are they going to do if Bernie Sanders is the nominee in 2020? Go back to arguing that free trade is bad?

Of course. Being hypocrites doesn't seem to bother them in the least.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 08:16 PM
Try and make some semblance of sense, who. They're Chinese tariffs.

Yes, I realize that. The biggest market for soybeans is Asia. If the price is uncompetitive, they don't sell in that market. Do try to remember that high demand means higher prices, lower demand lower prices.

Don
07-08-2018, 08:18 PM
I think China will cave. That's why we need to let this ride for a while. Much of Europe (the countries there that really produce things) will cave too.

I thought it was kind of funny some of the products that Canada added tariffs to. Dish washing soap and toilet paper. Are those things Canadians don't really need? :laugh: And Mexico......http://b2.ifrm.com/28026/139/0/e509987//e509987.gif

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 08:25 PM
Do you really think that the soybean growers give a rat's behind about whether more steelworkers are employed, if it means they go in the hole for the entire growing season? Are the steelworkers going to send money to the soya bean growers or the auto workers or any of the other sectors that are now being tariffed? No one is going to pay them for their sacrifice.
Once again....I’d be willing to bet that the long term results will make people across several sectors forget about the short term pain.

Where did you come up with the steel worker thing?

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 08:26 PM
I think China will cave. That's why we need to let this ride for a while. Much of Europe (the countries there that really produce things) will cave too.

I thought it was kind of funny some of the products that Canada added tariffs to. Dish washing soap and toilet paper. Are those things Canadians don't really need? :laugh: And Mexico......http://b2.ifrm.com/28026/139/0/e509987//e509987.gif
China’s stock market is tanking. They can’t handle very much if that.

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 08:28 PM
Perhaps they do, but they are used to hardship.
Lol....

Chris
07-08-2018, 08:28 PM
Yes, I realize that. The biggest market for soybeans is Asia. If the price is uncompetitive, they don't sell in that market. Do try to remember that high demand means higher prices, lower demand lower prices.

Incoherent still.

Let me repeat my argument and see if you can actually respond to it coherently.

They are Chinese tariffs, not Trump's. The OP is wrong on that score.

The Chinese tariffs went into effect Friday, not enough time to cause a drop in US soybean proces. The OP was wrong on that score.

US soybean prices have been dropping since 2012 all the while production has been rising. Greater supply => less demand. Less demand => lower costs. You got just the tail end correct.

Please do not quote me if you are just going to fake another response as I will call out the dishonesty exhibited.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 08:30 PM
Once again....I’d be willing to bet that the long term results will make people across several sectors forget about the short term pain.

Where did you come up with the steel worker thing?
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 08:34 PM
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?
It didn’t end there though.

Sheesh.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 08:38 PM
Incoherent still.

Let me repeat my argument and see if you can actually respond to it coherently.

They are Chinese tariffs, not Trump's. The OP is wrong on that score.

The Chinese tariffs went into effect Friday, not enough time to cause a drop in US soybean proces. The OP was wrong on that score.

US soybean prices have been dropping since 2012 all the while production has been rising. Greater supply => less demand. Less demand => lower costs. You got just the tail end correct.

Please do not quote me if you are just going to fake another response as I will call out the dishonesty exhibited.

I guess you've never heard of a little thing called crop futures. Soybean prices are dropping in the futures market. The market Chris, the market. They set the per bushel price. The tariffs have caused a sell-off. Worst hit are soybeans, but corn and oat futures have also fallen.

Chris
07-08-2018, 08:45 PM
I guess you've never heard of a little thing called crop futures. Soybean prices are dropping in the futures market. The market Chris, the market. They set the per bushel price. The tariffs have caused a sell-off. Worst hit are soybeans, but corn and oat futures have also fallen.

Once again you quote me only to pretend you are addressing what I posted. You don't. You fake it.

Let me repeat my argument and see if you can actually respond to it coherently.

They are Chinese tariffs, not Trump's. The OP is wrong on that score.

The Chinese tariffs went into effect Friday, not enough time to cause a drop in US soybean proces. The OP was wrong on that score.

US soybean prices have been dropping since 2012 all the while production has been rising. Greater supply => less demand. Less demand => lower costs. You got just the tail end correct. Your new idea of futures markets does not address these facts.

Please do not quote me if you are just going to fake another response as I will call out the dishonesty exhibited.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 08:48 PM
It didn’t end there though.

Sheesh.
Right, because instead of negotiating in private, Trump had to turn it into a game of chicken and call-out other nations publicly. Now, for all of the nations and leaders that he called out, it's about not appearing to be Trump's b***h. Nationalism is not an exclusively American phenomenon.

Chris
07-08-2018, 08:48 PM
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?

And those were caused by....

History didn't start when Trump imposed tariffs.

Your arguments are bizarre.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 08:49 PM
Once again you quote me only to pretend you are addressing what I posted. You don't. You fake it.

Let me repeat my argument and see if you can actually respond to it coherently.

They are Chinese tariffs, not Trump's. The OP is wrong on that score.

The Chinese tariffs went into effect Friday, not enough time to cause a drop in US soybean proces. The OP was wrong on that score.

US soybean prices have been dropping since 2012 all the while production has been rising. Greater supply => less demand. Less demand => lower costs. You got just the tail end correct. Your new idea of futures markets does not address these facts.

Please do not quote me if you are just going to fake another response as I will call out the dishonesty exhibited.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/19/soybean-prices-drop-to-two-year-low-on-us-china-trade-war-fears.html

pjohns
07-08-2018, 08:55 PM
The breakeven price for growing soybeans is about $10.00/bushel

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/04/projected-corn-and-soybean-breakeven-prices.html


Thanks to the loss of Chinese sales, the price of soybeans as of this date is $8.775/bushel.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data

Do the math. Soybean farmers are getting hammered. Some of them are even figuring out that voting for Trump was a really bad idea.

https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/116175
---
Almost 67 percent of the survey participants said they voted for Trump, versus only 24 percent for Hillary Clinton.
But when all respondents were asked if they would support Trump's reelection, only 45 percent said they would do so, representing an almost 20 percent drop in support from both Trump and Clinton voters.
---

Wow. A 20% drop in support for Trump among farmers. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa just went solid blue. No wonder the Trump cultists are in such a hysterical meltdown state.

First, I would like to say that there is some substance to that complaint.

However, your concern for these farmers--such as it is--seems to be more schadenfreude than anything else.

Nonetheless, I do believe that tariffs are almost always a bad idea.

Perhaps these tariffs are merely a short-term measure--one intended to trade short-term pain for long-term gain.

If they are intended as a long-term matter, that is quite different. For I am aware of no instance in which tariffs have been a winner in the long term.

(Note: To describe supporters of President Trump as mere "cultists" is to imply that there are almost 63 million "cultists" in America. And that is quite doubtful.)

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 09:00 PM
And those were caused by....

History didn't start when Trump imposed tariffs.

Your arguments are bizarre.

Who said history started when Trump imposed tariffs. What a bizarre thing to say. Trump campaigned on his notion of making America great again and righting all of the supposed trade surpluses with the rest of the world. That's where it started.

Chris
07-08-2018, 09:04 PM
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?


Who said history started when Trump imposed tariffs. What a bizarre thing to say. Trump campaigned on his notion of making America great again and righting all of the supposed trade surpluses with the rest of the world. That's where it started.


You did, Who. The incoherence I see in your quoting me and responding in a disconnected fashion is exceeded only by the incoherence between your own posts, where you say one thing and a few posts later either forget what you posted or deny it. It's truly amazing.

Chris
07-08-2018, 09:06 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/19/soybean-prices-drop-to-two-year-low-on-us-china-trade-war-fears.html

Once more try and respond coherently to what I post.

US soybean prices have been dropping since 2012.

You keep quoting me as if you are responding to me and yet so far nothing you have posted in response coheres in the least. Are you just faking it?

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 09:13 PM
You did, Who. The incoherence I see in your quoting me and responding in a disconnected fashion is exceeded only by the incoherence between your own posts, where you say one thing and a few posts later either forget what you posted or deny it. It's truly amazing.
No Chris, the problem is with you. The entire tariff war was started (as a result of campaign promises) when Trump slapped major tariffs on steel and aluminum. After a series of aggressive tweets, Trump inspired other nations to respond in kind. This might all have been avoided with private negotiations and diplomacy, but that's not Trump's forte.

Chris
07-08-2018, 09:15 PM
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?


Who said history started when Trump imposed tariffs. What a bizarre thing to say. Trump campaigned on his notion of making America great again and righting all of the supposed trade surpluses with the rest of the world. That's where it started.


You did, Who. The incoherence I see in your quoting me and responding in a disconnected fashion is exceeded only by the incoherence between your own posts, where you say one thing and a few posts later either forget what you posted or deny it. It's truly amazing.


No Chris, the problem is with you. The entire tariff war was started (as a result of campaign promises) when Trump slapped major tariffs on steel and aluminum. After a series of aggressive tweets, Trump inspired other nations to respond in kind. This might all have been avoided with private negotiations and diplomacy, but that's not Trump's forte.


You just repeated yourself that the tariff wart started with Trump, that history starts there, right after denying you said it. That's whacked. I think you're trolling.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 09:17 PM
Once more try and respond coherently to what I post.

US soybean prices have been dropping since 2012.

You keep quoting me as if you are responding to me and yet so far nothing you have posted in response coheres in the least. Are you just faking it?
So what? The market reacted adversely to the notion of tariffs, dropping the price by 7% overnight. Other crops are also affected. Do you think that export crops will benefit from tariffs?

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 09:24 PM
You just repeated yourself that the tariff wart started with Trump, that history starts there, right after denying you said it. That's whacked. I think you're trolling.
Are you just using the word history out of context? If you are referring to the 'history' of this trade spat, then say so. Don't economize with words and refer to history in general. The Trade war started with Trump in every sense. He said he would start it and he did. You know that, but still you are trying to start your word games - your hamster wheel. Forget it. I'm not playing.

Crepitus
07-08-2018, 09:39 PM
Not a problem, they'll blame Obama. Or it's Hillary's fault, lock her up!
I believe you are correct. tRump voters are not the sharpest tacks in the box.

nathanbforrest45
07-08-2018, 09:55 PM
No Chris, the problem is with you. The entire tariff war was started (as a result of campaign promises) when Trump slapped major tariffs on steel and aluminum. After a series of aggressive tweets, Trump inspired other nations to respond in kind. This might all have been avoided with private negotiations and diplomacy, but that's not Trump's forte.


Private negotiations and diplomacy has never worked in America's favor. We always give up more than we get.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 09:59 PM
Private negotiations and diplomacy has never worked in America's favor. We always give up more than we get.

I suspect that poking people in the eye is not going to bring great results.

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 10:19 PM
Right, because instead of negotiating in private, Trump had to turn it into a game of chicken and call-out other nations publicly. Now, for all of the nations and leaders that he called out, it's about not appearing to be Trump's b***h. Nationalism is not an exclusively American phenomenon.

Lol...... TDD is infecting you too.

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 10:21 PM
I believe you are correct. tRump voters are not the sharpest tacks in the box.

Look who's talking. This guy hasn't had a rational thought since 1995.

Mini Me
07-08-2018, 11:12 PM
I try not to think about Bathhouse Barry or Hillary and have noticed I spend less time being depressed.
You shouldn't waste your mind on nonsense!

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 11:20 PM
You shouldn't waste your mind on nonsense!


That's why no one should read your comments.

Dr. Who
07-08-2018, 11:32 PM
Lol...... TDD is infecting you too.
It's not TDD, it's reality. Trump is reviled in the rest of the world. Read some of the world press - they don't like him at all and the people of those countries don't like him. They certainly don't want to take their marching orders from him. Open your eyes and see beyond your own partisan politics.

Just an FYI, but the populations of China and the EU combined is just shy of 2B people. Europe's population exceeds that of America by 200M people. Who do you really think needs whom the most in a trade war? Let's not forget South America and Africa and the rest of Asia. America is a paltry 300M people in a sea of billions. Yes, the EU, China, Canada and Mexico will feel the impact of a trade dispute, but America needs exports. So many of its large manufacturers are no longer on American soil. Something had to fill the gap when so much manufacturing moved offshore. How many smaller industries are now primarily manufacturing for export? The world is a different place than it was 50 years ago.

Tahuyaman
07-08-2018, 11:43 PM
It's not TDD, it's reality. Trump is reviled in the rest of the world. Read some of the world press - they don't like him at all and the people of those countries don't like him. They certainly don't want to take their marching orders from him. Open your eyes and see beyond your own partisan politics.

Just an FYI, but the populations of China and the EU combined is just shy of 2B people. Europe's population exceeds that of America by 200M people. Who do you really think needs whom the most in a trade war? Let's not forget South America and Africa and the rest of Asia. America is a paltry 300M people in a sea of billions. Yes, the EU, China, Canada and Mexico will feel the impact of a trade dispute, but America needs exports. So many of its large manufacturers are no longer on American soil. Something had to fill the gap when so much manufacturing moved offshore. How many smaller industries are now primarily manufacturing for export? The world is a different place than it was 50 years ago.


No, it's TDD. Partisan hack types are especially susceptible.

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:01 AM
So what? The market reacted adversely to the notion of tariffs, dropping the price by 7% overnight. Other crops are also affected. Do you think that export crops will benefit from tariffs?

So your argument is Trump's tariffs caused soybean prices to start dropping in 2012. Yea, that makes sense. They are Chinese tariffs that went into effect Friday. The price of soybeans has been dropping since 212. You're trolling.


I am against all tariffs, US, and Canada. Unlike you who supports them unless you can associate them with Trump.

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:03 AM
Are you just using the word history out of context? If you are referring to the 'history' of this trade spat, then say so. Don't economize with words and refer to history in general. The Trade war started with Trump in every sense. He said he would start it and he did. You know that, but still you are trying to start your word games - your hamster wheel. Forget it. I'm not playing.

I'm using history in a coherent manner, I am not incoherent as what you post. Trump is reacting to an existing trade war. Hisotry did not start with Trump. You are playing, you're trolling.

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:04 AM
I believe you are correct. tRump voters are not the sharpest tacks in the box.

Well, the price of soybeans started dropping in 2012. Are you going to join Who and blame that on Trump?

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:07 AM
It's not TDD, it's reality. Trump is reviled in the rest of the world. Read some of the world press - they don't like him at all and the people of those countries don't like him. They certainly don't want to take their marching orders from him. Open your eyes and see beyond your own partisan politics.

Just an FYI, but the populations of China and the EU combined is just shy of 2B people. Europe's population exceeds that of America by 200M people. Who do you really think needs whom the most in a trade war? Let's not forget South America and Africa and the rest of Asia. America is a paltry 300M people in a sea of billions. Yes, the EU, China, Canada and Mexico will feel the impact of a trade dispute, but America needs exports. So many of its large manufacturers are no longer on American soil. Something had to fill the gap when so much manufacturing moved offshore. How many smaller industries are now primarily manufacturing for export? The world is a different place than it was 50 years ago.


The one who blames Trump for soybean prices dropping since 2012 claims reality?

TDS.

MMC
07-09-2018, 08:08 AM
No Chris, the problem is with you. The entire tariff war was started (as a result of campaign promises) when Trump slapped major tariffs on steel and aluminum. After a series of aggressive tweets, Trump inspired other nations to respond in kind. This might all have been avoided with private negotiations and diplomacy, but that's not Trump's forte.

So whats your answer to Steel companies hiring more people and bringing back workers all due to the steel tariff? Are you aware that Steel production was just under 70% and now is up around 80% with production?

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:27 AM
So whats your answer to Steel companies hiring more people and bringing back workers all due to the steel tariff? Are you aware that Steel production was just under 70% and now is up around 80% with production?

Better to ask her what she thinks of her own country, Canada, imposing tariffs on dairy products. She supports that, for the same reason you support steel tariffs. Don't expect a coherent answer though.

MMC
07-09-2018, 08:50 AM
Better to ask her what she thinks of her own country, Canada, imposing tariffs on dairy products. She supports that, for the same reason you support steel tariffs. Don't expect a coherent answer though.

What the Doc is a woman? I hope she can still sport those heels and not just run around in hush puppies. :tongue:


Well I caught that bit by Trump saying.....how about no tariffs. Knowing he knows the everybody isn't going to go for that. Still if he gets the EU, China, Canada and others to reduce theirs. Its worth it in the long term. Meaning after he is gone.


I think I had seen an article on those affected so far eating it for 1.12% as opposed to our 0.2%.

MisterVeritis
07-09-2018, 09:17 AM
I believe you are correct. tRump voters are not the sharpest tacks in the box.
So says the guy who does not know how to correctly spell Trump.

Admiral Ackbar
07-09-2018, 09:26 AM
This is same old story. The media and the Maoists....I am looking your way @Crepitus (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=1345), look to blame everything on Trump they can think of. Lets face it, they are down to looking at the market price of soybeans to find fault with him. That can only mean one thing... Trump is winning!
23904

Captdon
07-09-2018, 11:17 AM
The breakeven price for growing soybeans is about $10.00/bushel

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/04/projected-corn-and-soybean-breakeven-prices.html


Thanks to the loss of Chinese sales, the price of soybeans as of this date is $8.775/bushel.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data

Do the math. Soybean farmers are getting hammered. Some of them are even figuring out that voting for Trump was a really bad idea.

https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/116175
---
Almost 67 percent of the survey participants said they voted for Trump, versus only 24 percent for Hillary Clinton.
But when all respondents were asked if they would support Trump's reelection, only 45 percent said they would do so, representing an almost 20 percent drop in support from both Trump and Clinton voters.
---

Wow. A 20% drop in support for Trump among farmers. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa just went solid blue. No wonder the Trump cultists are in such a hysterical meltdown state.

Facts are not your friend. Farmers get full market value for their harvests. If the price falls below a certain level it is store until the price rises.

There has been no drop in support among farmers. they don't ever lose money on their crops and haven't since Roosevelt.

Do the math: Soybeans sell for $8.775. The cost is $10. The feds pay the difference and wait to sell.

Really weak.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 11:19 AM
Do you really think that the soybean growers give a rat's behind about whether more steelworkers are employed, if it means they go in the hole for the entire growing season? Are the steelworkers going to send money to the soya bean growers or the auto workers or any of the other sectors that are now being tariffed? No one is going to pay them for their sacrifice.

Read my post on this. The information was not actually true. No soybean farmer sold for less than the cost.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 11:21 AM
Do you really think that the soybean growers give a rat's behind about whether more steelworkers are employed, if it means they go in the hole for the entire growing season? Are the steelworkers going to send money to the soya bean growers or the auto workers or any of the other sectors that are now being tariffed? No one is going to pay them for their sacrifice.

Ever heard of government subsidies. The Canadians have.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 11:24 AM
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?

So what?

Captdon
07-09-2018, 11:32 AM
It's not TDD, it's reality. Trump is reviled in the rest of the world. Read some of the world press - they don't like him at all and the people of those countries don't like him. They certainly don't want to take their marching orders from him. Open your eyes and see beyond your own partisan politics.

Just an FYI, but the populations of China and the EU combined is just shy of 2B people. Europe's population exceeds that of America by 200M people. Who do you really think needs whom the most in a trade war? Let's not forget South America and Africa and the rest of Asia. America is a paltry 300M people in a sea of billions. Yes, the EU, China, Canada and Mexico will feel the impact of a trade dispute, but America needs exports. So many of its large manufacturers are no longer on American soil. Something had to fill the gap when so much manufacturing moved offshore. How many smaller industries are now primarily manufacturing for export? The world is a different place than it was 50 years ago.

Get something straight. We Trump voters don't give a rat's ass about what the rest of the world thinks. Why are you obsessed with that? People like you are an embarrassment to this country.

Who loses in a war with the Eu? They do.

We're a paltry part of the world's population is true. But paltry is an odd word for a nation that can destroy the world's economy. Canada is paltry under that definition.

Jeez, I can't stand America haters.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 11:33 AM
Right, because instead of negotiating in private, Trump had to turn it into a game of chicken and call-out other nations publicly. Now, for all of the nations and leaders that he called out, it's about not appearing to be Trump's b***h. Nationalism is not an exclusively American phenomenon.

But if we do it you get all bitchy about it. You don't seem to mind being played for a sucker.

mamooth
07-09-2018, 12:11 PM
If he were bankrupting them them they would all figure it out immediately.

Nobody is denying that many Trump cultists are so devoted to DearLeader, they're willing to starve on his behalf. The point is that many aren't that stupid and crazy, and they're going to vote Democratic, and that will swing many elections.


I like like how you didn’t post everything only what you wanted to make a fake news point.

Are you denying that 20% of the farmers said they regret voting for Trump? Of course you are. Reality is too painful for you to face, so you're denying reality.


”However, many may be reserving judgement to see how some of his actions play out: Another 18 percent said they did not know how they will vote in 2020.
So that means it's even worse for you. Instead of 20% switching their votes to the Democrats, the number could end up as high as 38%.


Thanks for playing nimrod.

Says the guy who thinks farmers will be pleased about going bankrupt, because they'll get to pay less taxes on the income that they didn't get. But then, if someone possesses common sense, they don't get sucked into the Trump cult.

mamooth
07-09-2018, 12:17 PM
Get something straight. We Trump voters don't give a rat's ass about what the rest of the world thinks.

Obviously. We see that you're willing to live in a cardboard box for the glory of DearLeader. Lenin could only dream about having a cadre of Useful Idiots as devoted as the hardcore Trump cultists.

However, you need to understand that your type of unhinged fanaticism is not normal. The majority of Americans aren't Trump cultists. If they get hurt economically, they're going to blame the person who hurt them, instead of licking their boots with even more gusto.

MMC
07-09-2018, 12:21 PM
Nobody is denying that many Trump cultists are so devoted to DearLeader, they're willing to starve on his behalf. The point is that many aren't that stupid and crazy, and they're going to vote Democratic, and that will swing many elections.



Are you denying that 20% of the farmers said they regret voting for Trump? Of course you are. Reality is too painful for you to face, so you're denying reality.


So that means it's even worse for you. Instead of 20% switching their votes to the Democrats, the number could end up as high as 38%.



Says the guy who thinks farmers will be pleased about going bankrupt, because they'll get to pay less taxes on the income that they didn't get. But then, if someone possesses common sense, they don't get sucked into the Trump cult.

Could.....kind of like maybe, huh. Kind of like IF.....as in IF a frog had wings it wouldn't hit its ass when it hops.


Still need at least 43% just to be relevant. Anything under 45% you still lose.

mamooth
07-09-2018, 12:29 PM
Facts are not your friend. Farmers get full market value for their harvests. If the price falls below a certain level it is store until the price rises.
There has been no drop in support among farmers. they don't ever lose money on their crops and haven't since Roosevelt.
Do the math: Soybeans sell for $8.775. The cost is $10. The feds pay the difference and wait to sell.

So I can go off and become the worst farmer ever, secure in the knowledge that the feds will always make up all of my losses.

Oh wait, that not how it's works. Your claims are all delusional. You seem to be describing some sort of socialist utopia, instead of the USA.

mamooth
07-09-2018, 12:38 PM
So your argument is Trump's tariffs caused soybean prices to start dropping in 2012.

No, that's entirely your argument. That would explain why it's such a stupid and dishonest argument.

The normal people point out that in the last month, soybean prices have gone from $10.50/bushel (profit!) to the current level (loss!). Trump's trade war did that.

Chris
07-09-2018, 12:55 PM
No, that's entirely your argument. That would explain why it's such a stupid and dishonest argument.

The normal people point out that in the last month, soybean prices have gone from $10.50/bushel (profit!) to the current level (loss!). Trump's trade war did that.


It is stupid and dishonest to deny the fact soybean prices started dropping in 2012. This was taken from your own OP source:

https://i.snag.gy/2Yfu9D.jpg

Trump wasn't around then as President. That soybean prices continue to drop is insignificant to all but those suffering TDS.

Tahuyaman
07-09-2018, 02:53 PM
When a compromise is reached with other nations in the future and tariffs are reduced or eliminated, the liberal hacks here will give Obama the credit.

mamooth
07-09-2018, 03:52 PM
It is stupid and dishonest to deny the fact soybean prices started dropping in 2012.

True. But as none of us have denied it, just why do you keep bringing it up and telling the lie that we're denying it?

Oh, that's right. It's your dishonest red herring. You're trying to deflect from the indisputable fact that Trump's trade war has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month, which will financially devastate many farmers.

Are you actually denying that Trump has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month? Just how far are you willing to take your evasion here?

Chris
07-09-2018, 03:58 PM
True. But as none of us have denied it, just why do you keep bringing it up and telling the lie that we're denying it?

Oh, that's right. It's your dishonest red herring. You're trying to deflect from the indisputable fact that Trump's trade war has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month, which will financially devastate many farmers.

Are you actually denying that Trump has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month? Just how far are you willing to take your evasion here?



True.


Thanks for admitting it.



But...


And you do, by ignoring it and declaring history started with Trump. And you keep doing it by declaring the fiction of "a crash in soybean prices over the last month." Soybean prices have been "crashing" since 2012.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:00 PM
Obviously. We see that you're willing to live in a cardboard box for the glory of DearLeader. Lenin could only dream about having a cadre of Useful Idiots as devoted as the hardcore Trump cultists.

However, you need to understand that your type of unhinged fanaticism is not normal. The majority of Americans aren't Trump cultists. If they get hurt economically, they're going to blame the person who hurt them, instead of licking their boots with even more gusto.

You never have anything honest to add to any post. You should be embarrassed. Your polls are woth as much as your opinion- nothing.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:01 PM
I believe you are correct. tRump voters are not the sharpest tacks in the box.

But we can spell.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:01 PM
I suspect that poking people in the eye is not going to bring great results.

It works in fights.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:04 PM
Obviously. We see that you're willing to live in a cardboard box for the glory of DearLeader. Lenin could only dream about having a cadre of Useful Idiots as devoted as the hardcore Trump cultists.

However, you need to understand that your type of unhinged fanaticism is not normal. The majority of Americans aren't Trump cultists. If they get hurt economically, they're going to blame the person who hurt them, instead of licking their boots with even more gusto.

To steal from MR V, you are an abnormal. I'm a normal. Get that straight.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:07 PM
Could.....kind of like maybe, huh. Kind of like IF.....as in IF a frog had wings it wouldn't hit its ass when it hops.


Still need at least 43% just to be relevant. Anything under 45% you still lose.

Yea, I deny 20% of farmers are switching to the Dems. The proof is you saying it since everything you say is untrue. It's amazing.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:11 PM
So I can go off and become the worst farmer ever, secure in the knowledge that the feds will always make up all of my losses.

Oh wait, that not how it's works. Your claims are all delusional. You seem to be describing some sort of socialist utopia, instead of the USA.

I didn't say that. Another of your lies. I said that the feds subsidy the difference between the price and the cost. That's a sub subsidy. They don't pay for stupidity.Tough luck for you. Stick to whatever you do, if anything.

Here's one you wouldn't know about. They pay farmers not to plant at all.

MMC
07-09-2018, 05:11 PM
Yea, i deny 20% of farmers are switching to the Dems. The proof is you saying it since everything you say is untrue. I's amazing.

# Walkaway.....started by Liberals that aren't Blue Dogs. So now another groups of the leftness is bailing on them. Then Blacks, Latinos, and Asians.

Its like.....Poetic Justice. :grin:

Chris
07-09-2018, 05:11 PM
T...Trump's trade war has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month....

Morning Market Review for July 9, 2018 (http://www.farmfutures.com/story-morning-market-review-bryce-knorr-0-30780)


Soybeans are lower, giving back some of Friday’s big rally. Futures are trying to hold moves above short-term downtrends on charts as traders assess the impact of Chinese tariffs on exports.

Sales reported Friday for the prior week easily beat expectations at 37.5 million bushels. While China continues to cancel previous old and new crop purchases, other buyers appear to be stepping in to scoop up bargains due to the large differential between prices out of the U.S. and Brazil.

...Thepreliminary report from the CBOT showed daily futures volume up 62% Friday to 234,218 with open interest up 12,361 despite active fund short covering.

Deliveries against July rose to 478 contracts today after another 261 lots were withdrawn from registration Friday in Chicago...

Options volume was 65% higher at 86,905...

Despite the dire straits pronounced and predicted by our two fabricators of fiction, Dr Who and mamooth, soybean prices are actually up.

Dr. Who
07-09-2018, 05:12 PM
It is stupid and dishonest to deny the fact soybean prices started dropping in 2012. This was taken from your own OP source:

https://i.snag.gy/2Yfu9D.jpg

Trump wasn't around then as President. That soybean prices continue to drop is insignificant to all but those suffering TDS.

Perhaps if you had looked up the reason for the peak prices in 2012, you would have known that it was a terrible growing season for both soybeans and corn because of the 2012 drought, thus there were fewer successful crops and the prices spiked (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/10/how-bad-was-the-2012-corn-and.html).

FYI, the predicted nominal price per bushel for soybeans through 2016 was 10.44.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2016/04/new-era-of-corn-and-soybean-prices.html
http://www.farmfutures.com/story-weekly-soybean-review-0-30767 (note discussion of tariffs on US soybeans)



https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/fdd042216_fig2.jpg

From the 2014 marketing year to the 2016 marketing year, corn prices averaged near $3.50 and soybean prices averaged near $9.50. Projections presented above suggest a continuation of roughly these price levels into the foreseeable future. Making decisions with prices in these levels seem prudent. For example, cash rental decisions should be made with the expectation of mid-$3 corn prices and mid-$9 soybean prices. Basing cash rents on higher prices could place farmers in financial stress.History indicates actual prices can vary considerably from forecasted prices like those shown in Table 2 (see Irwin and Good, farmdoc daily, January 14, 2015 for comparison of forecasts to actual prices). All long-run forecasts make assumptions about yield, production, and demand conditions. A number of events could cause conditions to vary leading to higher prices. For example, widespread production shortfalls from weather events could result in much higher prices than the averages shown (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/10/expectations-for-corn-and-soybean-prices.html) in Table 2. Alternatively, events could lead to lower prices. For example, prices could decline if the U.S. pulls out of the NAFTA free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico (see Burak, Baylis, and Coppess, farmdoc daily, October 4, 2017 for a discussion of trade disputes).Still, however, it does not seem reasonable to use price forecasts that are not in the mid-$3 range for corn and mid-$9 range for soybeans. Obviously, corn and soybean prices will vary from these projected levels sometime in the future. The events leading to those changes are unpredictable at this point in time.https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/fdd101717_tab2.jpg

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:14 PM
True. But as none of us have denied it, just why do you keep bringing it up and telling the lie that we're denying it?

Oh, that's right. It's your dishonest red herring. You're trying to deflect from the indisputable fact that Trump's trade war has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month, which will financially devastate many farmers.

Are you actually denying that Trump has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month? Just how far are you willing to take your evasion here?

Captdon
07-09-2018, 05:18 PM
True. But as none of us have denied it, just why do you keep bringing it up and telling the lie that we're denying it?

Oh, that's right. It's your dishonest red herring. You're trying to deflect from the indisputable fact that Trump's trade war has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month, which will financially devastate many farmers.

Are you actually denying that Trump has caused a crash in soybean prices over the last month? Just how far are you willing to take your evasion here?

Deny what? It wouldn't matter what we say. You won't accept anything the DNC doesn't tell you. We probably shpold leave you in your little dream world instead of trying to teach you the truth. But, we accept the challenge and a challenge it is.

Chris
07-09-2018, 05:21 PM
Perhaps if you had looked up the reason for the peak prices in 2012, you would have known that it was a terrible growing season for both soybeans and corn because of the 2012 drought, thus there were fewer successful crops and the prices spiked (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/10/how-bad-was-the-2012-corn-and.html)....


What does that have to with the fact soy bean prices have been dropping since those peak prices?



And see post #91's Morning Market Review for July 9, 2018, the demonstrates this crash in soybean prices you and your buddy talk about is pure fiction.

Once again you go off on a wild tanget talking about things you don't understand instead of addressing the simple facts I have presented.

Dr. Who
07-09-2018, 05:45 PM
What does that have to with the fact soy bean prices have been dropping since those peak prices?



And see post #91's Morning Market Review for July 9, 2018, the demonstrates this crash in soybean prices you and your buddy talk about is pure fiction.

Once again you go off on a wild tanget talking about things you don't understand instead of addressing the simple facts I have presented.
You implied that there was something normal about the 2012 prices. It wasn't normal. You note from the graph I provided, they cut off that spike - it's an outlier, just like all the other peaks in that graph. Your simple facts are misleading. Prices were not falling so much as normalizing. That would be like trying to calculate someone's average income and including a lottery win in the numbers.

Tariff fears wiped out all of the price gains for 2018. It wasn't oversupply. If the trade war continues, then the US loses its biggest soybean customer. Unless it can find new markets, there will be a glut of unsold soybeans and prices will fall. However, this summer promises to be very dry, which could ruin some crops, so who knows what effect that might have on the average price.

Captdon
07-09-2018, 06:04 PM
You and Strangelove make a good couple.

Chris
07-09-2018, 06:06 PM
You implied that there was something normal about the 2012 prices. It wasn't normal. You note from the graph I provided, they cut off that spike - it's an outlier, just like all the other peaks in that graph. Your simple facts are misleading. Prices were not falling so much as normalizing. That would be like trying to calculate someone's average income and including a lottery win in the numbers.

Tariff fears wiped out all of the price gains for 2018. It wasn't oversupply. If the trade war continues, then the US loses its biggest soybean customer. Unless it can find new markets, there will be a glut of unsold soybeans and prices will fall. However, this summer promises to be very dry, which could ruin some crops, so who knows what effect that might have on the average price.


I implied no such thing. I simply said the prices of soybeans have been dropping since 2012. Plan, simple fact. And a fact that obviates your and your fellow traveller's repeated fiction that prices have suddenly crashed.

And now you repeat your fiction that "Tariff fears wiped out all of the price gains for 2018." Post #91 showed that to be utterly false. Where did you even come up with it? Out of thin air? Read #91 as it makes nonsense of everything you're making up.

Unbelievable.

Chris
07-09-2018, 06:07 PM
You and Strangelove make a good couple.

Don't forget mamooth!

Tahuyaman
07-09-2018, 06:26 PM
Well, this all started with steel tariffs didn't it?
I’m still trying to figure out what point you were trying to make with that one.

pjohns
07-09-2018, 06:37 PM
So that means it's even worse for you. Instead of 20% switching their votes to the Democrats, the number could end up as high as 38%.

You really do not strike me as being truly serious in your analyses (and one uses the word rather loosely here).

A serious analyst might suggest that it is possible that the Democrats will re-take the House in 2018--it would require a net gain of 22 seats; but that is not impossible--although they almost certainly will not re-take the Senate, since 26 Democrats are up for re-election, as opposed to just nine Republicans.

However, all you can appear to do is to throw around the hate-filled word, "cultists"...

Dr. Who
07-09-2018, 07:16 PM
I implied no such thing. I simply said the prices of soybeans have been dropping since 2012. Plan, simple fact. And a fact that obviates your and your fellow traveller's repeated fiction that prices have suddenly crashed.

And now you repeat your fiction that "Tariff fears wiped out all of the price gains for 2018." Post #91 showed that to be utterly false. Where did you even come up with it? Out of thin air? Read #91 as it makes nonsense of everything you're making up.

Unbelievable.
Soybeans have fallen for five straight sessions, with most actively traded months notching contract lows in the past two sessions as the tariff increase grew increasingly certain."If China does indeed hit soybeans hard, the prices you see will be your new lows for a while - and I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the bean contracts start with a 7," said EFG Group analyst Tom Fritz, referring to sub-$8-per-bushel prices.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/reuters-america-grains-soybeans-close-at-2-12-year-low-as-china-tariffs-loom.html

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/7-corn-futures-edge-higher-on-strong-export-sales
https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/ext/resources/FBN-Features/7/070918SoybeanFutures_NewSize.jpg?1531141379

Chris
07-09-2018, 07:26 PM
Soybeans have fallen for five straight sessions, with most actively traded months notching contract lows in the past two sessions as the tariff increase grew increasingly certain."If China does indeed hit soybeans hard, the prices you see will be your new lows for a while - and I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the bean contracts start with a 7," said EFG Group analyst Tom Fritz, referring to sub-$8-per-bushel prices.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/reuters-america-grains-soybeans-close-at-2-12-year-low-as-china-tariffs-loom.html

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/7-corn-futures-edge-higher-on-strong-export-sales
https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/ext/resources/FBN-Features/7/070918SoybeanFutures_NewSize.jpg?1531141379


Now you're basically arguing what I argued, that soybean prices have been trending down--5 decades, no 6 years. It's another nice ruse on your part as you seek desperately to be right about something.

The point is you were wrong, the downward trend did not happen because of Trump.

In fact post #91 above demonstrates a recent rise in prices, not a crash--you were wrong again.

Why not just admit you were wrong, that you fabricated a fictional narrative to try and attack Trump.


No, I don't care about Trump, I care about true facts and conclusions.

Dr. Who
07-09-2018, 07:55 PM
Now you're basically arguing what I argued, that soybean prices have been trending down--5 decades, no 6 years. It's another nice ruse on your part as you seek desperately to be right about something.

The point is you were wrong, the downward trend did not happen because of Trump.

In fact post #91 above demonstrates a recent rise in prices, not a crash--you were wrong again.

Why not just admit you were wrong, that you fabricated a fictional narrative to try and attack Trump.


No, I don't care about Trump, I care about true facts and conclusions.
Five sessions is five days, not years. The graph ends in June - it got worse during the 1st week of July. The first article is talking about the period from June 30 to July 5.

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:36 PM
Five sessions is five days, not years. The graph ends in June - it got worse during the 1st week of July. The first article is talking about the period from June 30 to July 5.

Makes no difference, the drop in soybean prices started before Trump did anything.

It does even make sense to point at Trump. One, its Chinese tariffs. Two, Trump imposed tariffs on other countries for the very same reason you support them for your country Canada. IOW, Trump was reacting to previous tariffs and quotas and other protectionist policies of other countries. History doesn;t start with Trump.



it got worse during the 1st week of July.

You seem to be having trouble reading your own graph.

https://i.snag.gy/QAXYWP.jpg

The decline in your narrow graph began in JUNE. But JULY it was rising again, which, BTW, conforms with the picture described in post #91 above about today's sontinued rise in prices.

And if you proden your myopic view, you would see the downward tend goes back much further:

https://i.snag.gy/lQicdD.jpg

And that is consistent with the OP's source that showed a downward trend since 2012:

https://i.snag.gy/gTUd73.jpg

Once again, history did not begin with Trump.


What we have here are facts vs fiction.

Dr. Who
07-09-2018, 08:42 PM
Makes no difference, the drop in soybean prices started before Trump did anything.

It does even make sense to point at Trump. One, its Chinese tariffs. Two, Trump imposed tariffs on other countries for the very same reason you support them for your country Canada. IOW, Trump was reacting to previous tariffs and quotas and other protectionist policies of other countries. History doesn;t start with Trump.




You seem to be having trouble reading your own graph.

https://i.snag.gy/QAXYWP.jpg

The decline in your narrow graph began in JUNE. But JULY it was rising again, which, BTW, conforms with the picture described in post #91 above about today's sontinued rise in prices.

And if you proden your myopic view, you would see the downward tend goes back much further:

https://i.snag.gy/lQicdD.jpg

And that is consistent with the OP's source that showed a downward trend since 2012:

https://i.snag.gy/gTUd73.jpg

Once again, history did not begin with Trump.


What we have here are facts vs fiction.
Whatever Chris. You would argue that the sun revolved around the earth, if it suited your purposes. The source of most of the links is dedicated to crop futures and they are saying that tariffs are affecting the market. Go argue with them.

Chris
07-09-2018, 08:49 PM
Whatever Chris. You would argue that the sun revolved around the earth, if it suited your purposes. The source of most of the links is dedicated to crop futures and they are saying that tariffs are affecting the market. Go argue with them.

You would earn greater respect, Who, admitting you were wrong than ridiculously attacking me for arguing a point.

Those links go to speculative opinion pieces if you would read them more closely. The few facts you and the OP have presented here have all worked against you. Again, facts vs fiction.

Dr. Who
07-09-2018, 09:07 PM
You would earn greater respect, Who, admitting you were wrong than ridiculously attacking me for arguing a point.

Those links go to speculative opinion pieces if you would read them more closely. The few facts you and the OP have presented here have all worked against you. Again, facts vs fiction.
I'm not worried Chris.

mamooth
07-10-2018, 07:42 AM
You really do not strike me as being truly serious in your analyses (and one uses the word rather loosely here).

And yet you won't say why. Based on your behavior, you strike me as a typical Trump supporter. You get upset when facts intrude on your reality.


The poll I referenced in the OP said 20% of farmers switched away from being Trump supporters. The Trump fans don't want to address it. They'd rather insult me. No problem. If Republicans are in denial, that make it easier for Democrats to win elections.

Now, I don't think that 20% will hold. Tribal identity -- that is, cult membership -- is everything for the average Trump supporter. The majority of that 20% will stick with their Trump cult/tribe, no matter how badly they're getting screwed. However, a significant number won't, and that's enough to swing many elections.


A serious analyst might suggest that it is possible that the Democrats will re-take the House in 2018--it would require a net gain of 22 seats; but that is not impossible--although they almost certainly will not re-take the Senate, since 26 Democrats are up for re-election, as opposed to just nine Republicans.


No, that's not a serious analysis. That's just you changing the topic. A serious analysis relevant to this thread would be talking about how many seats flip because of Trump screwing his base and losing votes.


However, all you can appear to do is to throw around the hate-filled word, "cultists"...

Reveling in their victimhood is a way for authoritarian-followers to display their tribal/cult identify. Authoritarian-follower, of course, is the most common personality type among the Trump supporters. Most of them aren't actual sociopaths, they're just sheep.

Chris
07-10-2018, 07:50 AM
And yet you won't say why. Based on your behavior, you strike me as a typical Trump supporter. You get upset when facts intrude on your reality.


The poll I referenced in the OP said 20% of farmers switched away from being Trump supporters. The Trump fans don't want to address it. They'd rather insult me. No problem. If Republicans are in denial, that make it easier for Democrats to win elections.

Now, I don't think that 20% will hold. Tribal identity -- that is, cult membership -- is everything for the average Trump supporter. The majority of that 20% will stick with their Trump cult/tribe, no matter how badly they're getting screwed. However, a significant number won't, and that's enough to swing many elections.




No, that's not a serious analysis. That's just you changing the topic. A serious analysis relevant to this thread would be talking about how many seats flip because of Trump screwing his base and losing votes.



Reveling in their victimhood is a way for authoritarian-followers to display their tribal/cult identify. Authoritarian-follower, of course, is the most common personality type among the Trump supporters. Most of them aren't actual sociopaths, they're just sheep.


Please, stop trolling. Arguing, as you do, from popular opinion is fallacious. Opinions are ephemeral. You also claimed in the OP that "Soybean farmers are getting hammered." But your own source proved that wrong by showing prices dropping since 2012, and I in post #91 on the "Morning Market Review for July 9, 2018" and your fellow traveller, Dr Who, proved the opposite is true, prices are now rising:

https://i.snag.gy/QAXYWP.jpg

Captdon
07-10-2018, 08:31 AM
You implied that there was something normal about the 2012 prices. It wasn't normal. You note from the graph I provided, they cut off that spike - it's an outlier, just like all the other peaks in that graph. Your simple facts are misleading. Prices were not falling so much as normalizing. That would be like trying to calculate someone's average income and including a lottery win in the numbers.

Tariff fears wiped out all of the price gains for 2018. It wasn't oversupply. If the trade war continues, then the US loses its biggest soybean customer. Unless it can find new markets, there will be a glut of unsold soybeans and prices will fall. However, this summer promises to be very dry, which could ruin some crops, so who knows what effect that might have on the average price.


You are completely clueless how the market works. You don't take fed subsidies into your calculations. if what you said was true the farmers would have to go under and they aren't.

The stock market is run by and for the smartest investors. The market has continued to rise.

Captdon
07-10-2018, 08:40 AM
You Anti-Trumpers ought to look up subsidies and ex[lain how soybean producers are losing money.

I know mamooth won't or can't but I expect Who to do so. Then the idea that the market is in any trouble is ludicrous.

Only a fool or a gambler invests in futures, They are based on the selling price. It has no impact on the farmer or the market.

MisterVeritis
07-10-2018, 10:57 AM
To steal from MR V, you are an abnormal. I'm a normal. Get that straight.
Borrowing from me is perfectly acceptable.

pjohns
07-10-2018, 11:14 AM
Based on your behavior, you strike me as a typical Trump supporter.

Well, yes.

And no.

I voted for Donald Trump in 2016, as I believed he was the lesser of two evils--I simply could not bring myself to vote for The Witch (spelled with a "B")--but I am rather unsure of the adjective, "typical." (I do not regard that as an insult; I simply am uncertain as to whether it is applicable here.)



If Republicans are in denial, that make it easier for Democrats to win elections.
This sounds like mere cheerleading; and, after high school, that is really not a very appropriate thing, in my opinion.


Now, I don't think that 20% will hold. Tribal identity -- that is, cult membership -- is everything for the average Trump supporter. The majority of that 20% will stick with their Trump cult/tribe, no matter how badly they're getting screwed. However, a significant number won't, and that's enough to swing many elections.
As Ronald Reagan used to say: "There you go again."

I really am not sure that you could get through a post (at least, one regarding President Trump) without using the word, "cult" (or "cultist") at least once--and usually far more than that.


No, that's not a serious analysis. That's just you changing the topic. A serious analysis relevant to this thread would be talking about how many seats flip because of Trump screwing his base and losing votes.

If you truly wish to see what Democratic prospects (and Republican prospects) are for November, I would suggest that you might consult several experts in this field: Charlie Cook; Nate Silver; Stuart Rothenberg; Scott Rasmussen; and Larry Sabato leap to mind. (Rasmussen leans center-right, whereas Sabato leans center-left; but these are all good, reliable sources of information.)


Reveling in their victimhood is a way for authoritarian-followers to display their tribal/cult identify. Authoritarian-follower, of course, is the most common personality type among the Trump supporters. Most of them aren't actual sociopaths, they're just sheep.

Once again, you cannot seem to refer to President Trump--or his supporters--without hurling insults...

Chris
07-10-2018, 11:38 AM
Tribal identity -- that is, cult membership -- is everything for the average Trump supporter.

Perhaps mamooth reframes reality in term of identity politics because that's such a strong force on the left that embraces it.

Tribal is an odd word to use in that context for according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribalism


Tribalism is the state of being organized by, or advocating for, tribes or tribal lifestyles. Some scholars postulate that human evolution has occurred in small groups, as opposed to mass societies, and that humans naturally maintain a social network. The American scholar Peter Killworth estimates that the median social network in the United States is 231 people.[1][2][3]

The word "tribe" can be defined to mean an extended kin group or clan with a common ancestor, or can also be described as a group with shared interests, lifestyles and habits....

Identity polics, derived from Marxist class warfare, pits identity groups as masses against other identity groups, oppressors vs oppressed, seeking social rather than individual justice.

Supporters of Trump are hardly a tribe.

mamooth
07-10-2018, 02:44 PM
You Anti-Trumpers ought to look up subsidies and explain how soybean producers are losing money.

You do understand that crop-revenue insurance isn't free, right? And that not everyone buys it?

mamooth
07-10-2018, 02:46 PM
Perhaps mamooth reframes reality in term of identity politics because that's such a strong force on the left that embraces it.

That makes no sense.

The left is diverse, so it doesn't have a tribal identity.
In contrast, the right is almost all white and Christian. Hence, the rabid identify politics of the right, which you don't find on the left.

Chris
07-10-2018, 02:49 PM
That makes no sense.

The left is diverse, so it doesn't have a tribal identity.
In contrast, the right is almost all white and Christian. Hence, the rabid identify politics of the right, which you don't find on the left.

It makes no sense because you cut out most of my post @ http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/99036-Trump-is-Bankrupting-his-Base?p=2377185&viewfull=1#post2377185

That's dishonest.


In contrast, the right is almost all white and Christian. Hence, the rabid identify politics of the right, which you don't find on the left.

You just demonstrated my point. You embrace identity politics.

mamooth
07-10-2018, 02:56 PM
I voted for Donald Trump in 2016, as I believed he was the lesser of two evils--I simply could not bring myself to vote for The Witch (spelled with a "B")--

So, raging sexism, plus susceptibility to all the faked propaganda about Clinton. Yep, a typical Trump supporter.

You don't see liberal men screaming sexist insults at conservative women, yet you always see conservative men screaming sexist insults at liberal women. The two sides are totally different in that respect. I know it's not PC to point out how your system of morality is inferior, but I'm not PC.


I really am not sure that you could get through a post (at least, one regarding President Trump) without using the word, "cult" (or "cultist") at least once--and usually far more than that.

If the shoe fits. In addition to always being raging misogynists, your side embraces a serial molester and criminal, and yet proclaims he's the most wonderful person ever. That's cult-like. Take the most fanatical Obama groupie, multiply their devotion a hundredfold, and it still falls far short of the devotion the average Republican holds towards Trump.


Once again, you cannot seem to refer to President Trump--or his supporters--without hurling insults...

Which would be the fault of Trump's supporters. Don't expect me to go all PC and sugarcoat their actions. These are the people making excuses for putting babies in cages.

mamooth
07-10-2018, 03:02 PM
It makes no sense because you cut out most of my post @ http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/99036-Trump-is-Bankrupting-his-Base?p=2377185&viewfull=1#post2377185
(http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/99036-Trump-is-Bankrupting-his-Base?p=2377185&viewfull=1#post2377185) You may be hung up on Marxist definitions, but liberals aren't, so we pay no attention to them.

We just observe. The Trump movement is entirely about identify politics, on a scale never seen before in the USA.


You just demonstrated my point. You embrace identity politics.

I embrace telling the simple truth. And it triggered you badly.

Now, what does Marx tell you to say about that? Go check (assuming that you don't have some relevant passage by Marx already memorized.)

Chris
07-10-2018, 03:43 PM
Perhaps mamooth reframes reality in term of identity politics because that's such a strong force on the left that embraces it.

Tribal is an odd word to use in that context for according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribalism



Identity polics, derived from Marxist class warfare, pits identity groups as masses against other identity groups, oppressors vs oppressed, seeking social rather than individual justice.

Supporters of Trump are hardly a tribe.


That makes no sense.

The left is diverse, so it doesn't have a tribal identity.
In contrast, the right is almost all white and Christian. Hence, the rabid identify politics of the right, which you don't find on the left.


It makes no sense because you cut out most of my post @ http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/99036-Trump-is-Bankrupting-his-Base?p=2377185&viewfull=1#post2377185

That's dishonest.



You just demonstrated my point. You embrace identity politics.



(http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/99036-Trump-is-Bankrupting-his-Base?p=2377185&viewfull=1#post2377185) You may be hung up on Marxist definitions, but liberals aren't, so we pay no attention to them.

We just observe. The Trump movement is entirely about identify politics, on a scale never seen before in the USA.



I embrace telling the simple truth. And it triggered you badly.

Now, what does Marx tell you to say about that? Go check (assuming that you don't have some relevant passage by Marx already memorized.)


You just demonstrated my point, again. You embrace identity politics. You frame everything in terms of it.



You're also, lol, off topic in your own thread.

Captdon
07-10-2018, 05:30 PM
You have this idiotic belief that polls mean anything. Go find a farmer who doesn't support Trump.

Clinton Cultists are so far in denial they can see shit when they step in it.

The party in power averages a 24 seat loss. That's history. That would give the Dems control of the House but don't bet any money on it.

Where is the authoritarian other than in your head. The illegals are still here, the wall isn't built and other things an a dictator would have done. Hell, he'd have has you shot before this.

Someone like you shouldn't be calling someone a sociopath.

I have yet to see you state a single fact. You find some poll and try to say that's fact and no one believes that.

Captdon
07-10-2018, 05:32 PM
You do understand that crop-revenue insurance isn't free, right? And that not everyone buys it?

I don't care what a bad or stupid business man does. If you own a business and you bet it on a horse race and lose that's on you. I don't care.

Captdon
07-10-2018, 05:37 PM
That makes no sense.

The left is diverse, so it doesn't have a tribal identity.
In contrast, the right is almost all white and Christian. Hence, the rabid identify politics of the right, which you don't find on the left.

The left is made up of frauds, freaks and freeloaders.

Captdon
07-10-2018, 05:38 PM
You just demonstrated my point, again. You embrace identity politics. You frame everything in terms of it.



You're also, lol, off topic in your own thread.


There is no dealing with dishonesty, Chris.


He's a parrot.

MisterVeritis
07-10-2018, 05:46 PM
The left is made up of frauds, freaks and freeloaders.
They are abnormal people.

mamooth
07-10-2018, 06:13 PM
You have this idiotic belief that polls mean anything.

All politicians think they mean something. They were very accuragte for the 2016 election.

(Yep, I am playing "bait the loonies" there. They won't be able to resist, and I'll get to have more fun with them.)


Go find a farmer who doesn't support Trump.

The piece referenced in the OP talked to some. And, as is usual with you, it contradicted with your kook cult worldview, so you had a meltdown.


Clinton Cultists are so far in denial they can see $#@! when they step in it.

Why are you babbling about Clinton now? Is The Clenis, the ghastly floating specter Bill Clinton's disembodied member, still following you around, haunting your dreams, and whispering unspeakable depravities to you? I can see why that would make you so cranky.


Where is the authoritarian other than in your head. The illegals are still here, the wall isn't built and other things an a dictator would have done. Hell, he'd have has you shot before this.


You're not making any sense, as usual. How does the fact that Trump fanatics are usually authoritarian-follower personalities mean that I should have been shot already?


Someone like you shouldn't be calling someone a sociopath.

Like I said, most Trump followers are authoritarian-followers, not sociopaths. Sheep. Good Germans.


I have yet to see you state a single fact. You find some poll and try to say that's fact and no one believes that.

I'm not sorry for triggering you like this. You needed to be dragged out of your SafeSpace, no matter how much it hurts you. It's your first step on the road back to rationality and morality.

mamooth
07-10-2018, 06:16 PM
You just demonstrated my point, again. You embrace identity politics. You frame everything in terms of it.

So, by your logic, if I point out that the person holding the bloody knife is a murder, it means I'm a murderer.

Your logic is always very unlike our mere Earth logic. I suppose it makes sense in your home dimension, but here in this realm, it just mystifies us.

Chris
07-10-2018, 06:33 PM
So, by your logic, if I point out that the person holding the bloody knife is a murder, it means I'm a murderer.

Your logic is always very unlike our mere Earth logic. I suppose it makes sense in your home dimension, but here in this realm, it just mystifies us.

No, not what I'm saying.

Captdon
07-10-2018, 06:48 PM
No, not what I'm saying.

It doesn't matter what you say. This guy isn't a thinker.