The UAE, Jordan, Egypt and Israel are on the verge of agreeing on a replacement for Abbas, according to an exclusive report by the Middle East Eye news service quoting senior Jordanian and Palestinian sources. The group want to bring Mohammed Dahlan out of exile and install him as head of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO. Dahlan however is not liked by Palestinians, is considered corrupt and is also believed to have ties to the Israeli security services. The possibility of him running as a presidential candidate in elections would likely see his ascension to the presidency fail. Egypt and the UAE, with the support of Jordan, and the agreement of Israel believe the only way is to force Abbas's removal and install Dahlan in his role.
The UAE, according to the reports want Abbas arrested however the other stakeholders in the conspiracy are reportedly not prepared to go that far. The UAE has also said it wants Abbas stopped from travelling abroad and if he is deposed they want Jordan to deny his asylum. Curiously Saudi Arabia has not been consulted on talks but UAE sources say this will happen when the plan has been finalised. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have continually warned off other countries, particularly Iran and Qatar, from meddling in the affairs of other countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been boasting in recent months of a warming of relations with Arab countries and the increasing likelihood of the Jewish state soon establishing diplomatic relations with a number of Arab nations. Mr Netanyahu has spoken often of back channel talks he and his government are having with Arab leaders.The Bahrain King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa recently conceded it is only a matter of time before the Arab world enters a diplomatic pact with Israel.
Abbas is now 80 and has often been accused of being too close to Israel. He has been at the helm since 2005. Despite his party Fatah losing elections in 2006 to Hamas he was retained as president after Hamas agreed to jointly sharing power with Fatah. The agreement ultimately broke down and Fatah assumed control of the West Bank while Hamas took control of Gaza. Dahlan is a former leader of Fatah. According to the Middle East Eye report, the strategies of the collaborating nations are to:
- unite and bolster Fatah for the forthcoming elections with Hamas
- weaken Hamas by dividing it into competing factions
- conclude a peace agreement with Israel with the backing of Arab states
- seize control of sovereign Palestinian institutions, the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), the PLO chairmanship and leadership of Fatah
- choreograph the return of Dahlan as the power behind the throne of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority
Middle East Eye says its sources, which have been independently verified, have nominated Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, as one of the key players in the discussions. "The Emiratis, particularly Mohammed Bin Zayed, absolutely reject Abbas on the personal level, to the extent that they told the Jordanians explicitly that the reason the UAE is negative about Jordan is due to the fact that Jordan did not take a stand against Abbas," a senior Palestinian source is quoted as saying by Middle East Eye. The three Arab countries, who have concluded Abbas has "expired politically" have worked out how to implement their plan to replace him and have allotted roles for each actor to play, including one for for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who for a long period was the Middle East envoy. Dahlan has also proposed linking Hamas to its rival Islamic Jihad.
Middle East Eye corroborated the plot with a senior Jordanian source who briefed the news service following a visit by Dahlan to Amman a few weeks ago, his first visit to Jordan in 5 years. Jordan, which in 2012 seized Dahlan's family assets on the instructions of the Palestinian Authority, is not entirely sure of Dahlan. King Abdullah and his father before him have been regarded highly as champions of the Palestinian cause. "The King of Jordan should not spearhead an initiative that is likely to fail. Considering Dahlan's involvement, the king might be seen as someone who is taking sides and supporting one party against another. This is how Abbas sees the role played by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi and the UAE," the Jordanian source told Middle East Eye.
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